A silent Bull in disguise?
Updated
There is a valid count that puts the WXY bear bottom at 5750 on June 24. It had seemed obvious the bear trend was continuing until I really took a deep dive look at the subwaves. This chart shows a valid count that actually suggests BTC has started its trend reversal bull trend! It would mean that BTC is working on wave 2, and wave 3 is next. Wave 3 would have a target of 6911.
To see my bearish count see my previous related post. The key to this bullish count is marking up the stutter in the spike as waves i and ii. It is more obviously seen on the 5 minute chart and zoomed way in. I will post an image of this chart zoomed in a bit more but the image needs zoomed in on the spike even more to really see it. The main reason I like this bullish chart, and the biggest sign this count may be better than my bearish count is the 3 wave action within wave B of B on my bullish chart seen here.
One last thing that makes me like this bullish count is cycle analysis. BTC has been putting in midpoints and troughs of its 60 day cycles on the 6th of each month, however, in May the 60 day cycle started on May 28th. This chart shows wave 3 starting on June 29th which is the cycle midpoint.
I'm still waiting for the huge spike in volume that confirms the start to cycle degree wave 3 and the end of cycle degree wave 2 which makes up the entire bear market we have seen in 2018. The volume spike will be the dead give away, we just haven't seen it yet so if it is a bull its not very obvious thats for sure!
To see my bearish count see my previous related post. The key to this bullish count is marking up the stutter in the spike as waves i and ii. It is more obviously seen on the 5 minute chart and zoomed way in. I will post an image of this chart zoomed in a bit more but the image needs zoomed in on the spike even more to really see it. The main reason I like this bullish chart, and the biggest sign this count may be better than my bearish count is the 3 wave action within wave B of B on my bullish chart seen here.
One last thing that makes me like this bullish count is cycle analysis. BTC has been putting in midpoints and troughs of its 60 day cycles on the 6th of each month, however, in May the 60 day cycle started on May 28th. This chart shows wave 3 starting on June 29th which is the cycle midpoint.
I'm still waiting for the huge spike in volume that confirms the start to cycle degree wave 3 and the end of cycle degree wave 2 which makes up the entire bear market we have seen in 2018. The volume spike will be the dead give away, we just haven't seen it yet so if it is a bull its not very obvious thats for sure!
Note
this image may give you a better look at it Note
As you can see this count was absolutely correct. Only issue was I was expecting a .618 retrace which would make a standard flat. Cryptos always choose the extended. Wave 2 did a .942 retrace! This spike you just saw was the start to wave 3. My target for wave 3 is 6725 and target for wave 5 is 6950.Note
Wave 3 was short. Between the 1.272 and 1.414. It leaves little room for retrace wave 4. Wave 4 cannot overlap wave 2. This means btc can’t go less than 6360. I am using the bitfinex chart because there we see a .942 fib retrace for wave 2 while other charts show an invalid retrace larger than 100%. So if would be wave 4 goes lower than 6360 there are only a few options. 1. It’s a leading diagonal. 2. It’s a C wave. I have the .236 retrace at 6367. This entire impulse has been pushing the boundaries on chart laws to the max!! If it stays within the .236 and completes a wave 5 it would make sense for wave 5 to be longer like 1.618 of wave 1. That puts it up at 7342.Note
To clarify my statement. If btc goes below 6360: if it’s close it could just mean bitfinex does not hold true over price sentiment for that specific datapoint. If it’s not close then it’s not 1,2,3 of a wave 5 impulse, it’s abc of a bear trend and the tall wave here is c not 3. This wouls mean my count that started this post has been invalidated.
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