DXY Weekly analysis (10-05-25 to - 17-05-25)

📊 Technical Analysis (4H Chart - DXY)
Current price is around 100.00. The chart shows a clear higher low near 99.00, followed by a strong bullish reversal, marked by engulfing candles and momentum to the upside.

Key Technical Observations:

Support Zone: 99.00 – 99.30, a strong demand zone where the recent reversal began.

Resistance Zones:

Minor: 100.50 – 100.80

Major: 101.50 – 102.00, previous structural breakdown area.

The structure suggests a bullish recovery wave is forming after a long downtrend. A confirmed breakout above 100.50 could trigger further upside.

Short-term momentum favors buyers, indicating potential continuation.

🟢 Bullish bias remains valid as long as price holds above 99.50.

🌍 Fundamental Outlook for the Week (13–17 May 2025)
🏦 1. Fed Policy Stance
The Fed is staying data-dependent, holding off on rate cuts due to persistent inflation. Recent CPI and labor market strength have led markets to delay pricing in any rate cut. This continues to support USD strength in the short term.

📈 2. Key US Data to Watch
CPI (May 15, Wed): A hot print could trigger a DXY breakout above key resistance.

Retail Sales (May 16, Thu): Strong consumer data could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance.

Jobless Claims: Still at historically low levels, signaling a tight labor market and reinforcing policy caution.

💹 3. Geopolitics and Risk Sentiment
Any global risk-off tone—especially related to China or the Middle East—could trigger safe-haven flows into the dollar. Rising US yields, driven by fiscal concerns and rate expectations, continue to offer support.

✅ Conclusion
Outlook is bullish for DXY next week if price sustains above 99.50. CPI is the major trigger—a hotter-than-expected inflation print could push price through 100.80 toward 101.50+. However, if data disappoints or dovish tones emerge from Fed speakers, DXY may reject from resistance and retest 99.80.