Jan-Feb 2021 looks pivotal for global risk-on / risk-off

The dollar can still fall a long way (which would be very bullish for risk-on assets). But we're also at demand, a logical area to start a year long upswing. That'd mean a full blown bear market and global risk-off; a year of pain.

The direction should be clear by late Feb



If indeed we transition into a 2021 bear market, sometime in the next few weeks seems like a logical time to begin. Far from a certainty though



There's a similar structure on the 6H. As with the daily chart, the loss of downward momentum is being confirmed with RSI and MACD bull divs. Based on macro factors I personally think we're more likely to see a pause instead of an actual trend reversal, but we'll find out soon enough.