Short

Updated

SPX 500 - post FOMC chat

Market sold off as I expected yesterday. It was especially difficult for tech to overcome the resistance area of 313 on QQQ.

Having said that, there are signs that yet another whipsaw is coming in a week or more. All in the video - I hoe you enjoy it.

Good luck!

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Good morning, bounce incoming, i believe it's a sell into next week.

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target area reached, a little higher would not be a problem, looks like B before a larger C down.

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spy - backtest of rising wedge

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if this analysis is correct, the C wave down should be starting here or with one more high. Out for the day- good luck!

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B wave was larger than expected, makes sense as the smaller RSI was on the extreme lows. Now C to 3800ish looks confirmed for now.

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1-2 look finished for the C wave, the third wave should be tomorrow, I expect a hard gap down under 3900 tomorrow

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I mentioned before the XLF has strong monthly Bollinger band support at the 29 dollar area, and we are close to that level already. A spike through 29 for a few days is not an issue, but it's another reason I'm bullish around + or - 3800

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we are outside the sideways channel on futures, I think it will keep melting down today, however the RSI on small time frames is quite low again, so an alternative will be posted in case we rally.

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possible, but not probable idea - regardless I think we eventually come down to 3800 next week. If I'm wrong I'll update

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ES is also at pitchfork support with bullish divergence. If you are day trading, watch for another whipsaw up and then down like yesterday.

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there are conflicting signals on the charts and it can go either way. please be careful.

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potential channel here as well. if they sell the open, watch for a quick bear trap

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for bulls, this is a buy area - pitchfork support

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starting to look like a bear trap, possible the alternative is correct. RSI was hinting at it.

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SPY found support at it's pitchfork as well, right now I'm leaning toward this, another whip saw before the bigger move down to 380 area

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choppy as all hell, I still see this (as of now) as an AB with C coming to reach 3990 area.

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perhaps a better chart to watch is qqq which is clearly in a pennant. It will run hard one way or the other once it breaks

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QQQ 5 minute - worth watching for both bulls and bears - will determine the direction for the day and maybe into next week as well.

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q's appearing to breakdown here, could be a strong move

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very difficult to decide which way this is going to go, q's are saying breakdown, spy is hinting at a rally. Very difficult, so I'm saying short and will stop looking at it today. Either way I think more downside comes next week. Good luck and have a good weekend.

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ok now it looks clearer - probably this for another B wave before the bigger C down. Chop till drop. if they complete this today, it's a bull trap.

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soin the end they DID rally and it looks like the B wave of this ABC is done. If true, C begins monday Note that they ended the week below the 18ma (I talked about that in the video)

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2 hr rsi was showing bullish divergence this morning at support, that's why I was wary of a rally. Now those smaller time frame RSI's are reset again, although they could go a bit higher before the C wave starts. I'll update a new chart this weekend now that I feel clearer on what is happening. Have a good weekend. This post is now closed.

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this is what I expect, the rsi has been sufficiently reset for a fall now. If wrong I will update. I didn't have time to post this weekend but will try later

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so far this looks good for a short, but I expect a bounce from the trendline. A break of the TL would be more bearish. There's nothing impulsive here just yet so it could just be another correction in a further uptrend. Good luck.

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so far so good for bears. No volume yet, but right now if it's correct the high from today should hold.

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Uneventful day. We're trapped between the 50 and 18 weekly below and the 20 above. If they break the 50 this week, the lower BB on the weekly chart is still my target. Right now that's a big IF.

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Good morning, currently futures is looking like this to me. Possibly the consolidation is over.

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another tight range day, tech again outperforming to the downside. We are still above the daily 18ma but below the weekly MA, nothing has been decided yet.

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we're in the same resistance area as before again. Right now we are over the 18 weekly. A weekly close above it would be bullish, but I'm still thinking they will close below and this resistance will hold, which means I expect a sell off into Friday. However, it really could go either way at this point. The chopfest continues.

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as of now it looks like spy is going to the pitchfork boundary again - around 404 on spy and maybe higher. If they sell hard overnight we may have an abandoned baby pattern. tomorrow are important numbers (again) - tradingview.com/x/pkgKcmC6/. We have two more trading days to see if the 18 weekly ma is held for the week.

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good morning, we're at previous price resistance and the daily BB.

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spy will open at it's pitchfork boundary and daily BB.

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one more high to finish an ending diagonal looks likely

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new update

the_sunship

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the_sunship

Also on:

Related publications

Pre FOMC quick take

by the_sunship