EUR/SGD on the verge of breaking large-scale channel

Apr 12, 2017

The Euro has been underperforming against the Singapore Dollar for more than ten years already—but the pair might be beginning to give out bullish signals as the upper bound of the prominent channel down pattern starts to gain attractiveness. With the latest low failing to sustain amplitude, a falling wedge has emerged, and is strengthening the reversal scenario despite the small-scale descending triangle pattern. A break above the upper trend-line of the senior pattern could serve additionally as an up-wave to confirm a newly-formed downward channel with lesser steepness, setting the upper boundary as the next target outside of the prevailing pattern. In case the pair bounces off 1.6429, we will look for it to target the broken senior trend-line around 1.4314. There is a strong cluster right outside the large-scale pattern at 1.5375, consisting of various time-frame SMAs, an expansion and a pitchfork parallel, and it should show its presence if demand starts to pressure. The expansion also approximates a pullback area that has not been respected, giving more reason to believe that the trend is being broken. In addition, it can be observed that the pair had already showed similar conditions in 2011, when the correction-turned-slip was followed by a strong rally. The ADX shows that the trend has diminished and the pitchfork has been exited to the upside. To sum up - while there is no confirmation of the reversal in any form just yet, EUR/SGD shows strong potential for a turnover in market characteristics as the correction diminishes.