EURUSD: Weekly mode support held, still sideways/up?

Jun 26, 2016

EURUSD has deviated from the usual risk off behavior it has exhibited in one year, as you can see when comparing it to inverse IBB in the line chart pair above. The last daily close is right above a low volume support level, but still near the lows. It'd be interesting to see if it resumes the uptrend from here.

I'll be monitoring price action in hourly charts, watching Vix, the Yen, S&P500, as well as gold, bonds and oil to determine what the Euro's direction will be after the Brexit mayhem smoke clears. The fact that the uptrend mode held is bullish, but we'd need to see evidence of a bullish setup forming to go long here.

We can't blindly trade it yet. There is conflict between weekly and daily signals, so for now, we can't trade in this pair, but once it's safe, we'll have a potentially terrific long opportunity if support holds.
Stay tuned for updates on this chart.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

Jun 27, 2016

Note

I'll update the chart after today's close.

Jun 27, 2016

Note

The key levels are still valid, we're below low volume support, this is bearish for now. I'm standing aside until there is clarity.

Jun 28, 2016

Note

After a 1h uptrend signal that happened during Asia, we have hit a top, and now might procede to test the low volume support/resistance level below. If we hold above this level, we could see price head up to test the key level, if not we'll go back down to today's lows. I'm still not comfortable with taking trades here, but watching it closely.

Jun 29, 2016

Note

Tested support, and now rallying off the low volume support level.

I'd expect 1.1170 to be hit before we see a reaction.

Jun 30, 2016

Note

We were close to my target and had a massive reaction but the 'Brexit key level' still holds.

Jul 4, 2016

Note

Key level hit and price retraced from it. I'll post an updated chart preparing for FOMC and NFP this week. I anticipate the catalyst for the new trends this quarter will be on Friday.