Consolidation until no longer..
We have now been in consolidation for over a year and no one knows for how long we will be here, only when we break up above 1.170x handle that i dont even count as being there, does anyone else? pure FOMC momentum that could not be sustained. BUT it is there.. I'm more looking at the top cluster up to 1.147x that act as a hard resistance. And i doubt we will break it in this wave. So chances are that we will return back lower from here.
Under the lower side we did hit the channel floor twice and that should also be respected. After the march 2015 touch we did not bounce towards the top of the channel but got caught in consolidation and here we are...
Looking back in history i found a period that looks a bit like the period (1995-1996) we have had now, and there we had a run higher (flushout) before we continued down and hit the all time low in the EURUSD. IF !? that would happen again we could see 1.235x before a new low for now. Levelwise we are almost playing the levels now again to the pip. But what would make it pop the resistance and fly for 1,235x? because we need a catalyst and a simple stoprun would probably not do it, so until we are faced with any kind of fundienews that could drive it, i think we are heading lower next week, targeting min 1.1150 ish.. and back in the consolidation area... waiting for the catalyst.
Under the lower side we did hit the channel floor twice and that should also be respected. After the march 2015 touch we did not bounce towards the top of the channel but got caught in consolidation and here we are...
Looking back in history i found a period that looks a bit like the period (1995-1996) we have had now, and there we had a run higher (flushout) before we continued down and hit the all time low in the EURUSD. IF !? that would happen again we could see 1.235x before a new low for now. Levelwise we are almost playing the levels now again to the pip. But what would make it pop the resistance and fly for 1,235x? because we need a catalyst and a simple stoprun would probably not do it, so until we are faced with any kind of fundienews that could drive it, i think we are heading lower next week, targeting min 1.1150 ish.. and back in the consolidation area... waiting for the catalyst.
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