Hindalco-Neo wave count
Updated
Current pattern: WXY double correction
Both correction have taken Bow-Tie diametric form(7 leg pattern,Expansion in first 3 leg and compression in last 3 leg).
Right now it seems like second correction is done and current fall can be wave X or wave 1(star of new impulse on the downside)
Shown horizontal dashed lines are retracement(23,38,50,62) levels of second correction.
Notice through out this up move price has taken support of lower channel which it seems like will be broken in current fall.If price goes below 475 and gives closing below it in next 2 day's it will give 2 stage confirmation of TL breach and faster retracement of previous swing meaning bigger move on the downside can come in near future.
Personally i feel metals are way to over stretched on the upside and it's time for them to move down.I have posted charts of Sail and have shared link of my analysis on tata steel on this platform and both charts are showing sign of weakness.
Hindalco being an aluminium and copper producing company has shown divergence from steel producing stock in metal sector up until now,but since last three days it has aligned itself with the broader markets and on the charts it seems like completion of double correction as well.
We can also see that price is following 18-days cycle and price has reversed around cycle low zone on 11-12 occasion.And the next cycle low period is coming on 27-10-21,hence bounce can be seen in price around that day and one should look to exit longs or build short position around that time.
Trade setup criteria
1)Prices needs to close below 475 in next 2 day's.
2)If 1st criteria is meet,then one should look to short the stock on bounce till 495-500(broken channel then act as Resistance).
3)If We should get a reversal candle in the form of shooting star,bearish pearcing,bearish engulfing around channel levels then one can initiate short trade on the next day when the low's of the reversal candle get's taken out.
stop-loss would be 530 on the upside and expected targets would be 475-425-389-360 on the downside.Time frame for this trade would be minimum 1 month.
DISCLAIMER:There is no guarantee of profits or no exceptions from losses. The study provided is solely the personal views of my research. You are advised to rely on your judgment while investing/Trading decisions. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Investment is subject to market risks. Seek help of your financial advisors before investing/trading.
I may or may not trade this analysis
Both correction have taken Bow-Tie diametric form(7 leg pattern,Expansion in first 3 leg and compression in last 3 leg).
Right now it seems like second correction is done and current fall can be wave X or wave 1(star of new impulse on the downside)
Shown horizontal dashed lines are retracement(23,38,50,62) levels of second correction.
Notice through out this up move price has taken support of lower channel which it seems like will be broken in current fall.If price goes below 475 and gives closing below it in next 2 day's it will give 2 stage confirmation of TL breach and faster retracement of previous swing meaning bigger move on the downside can come in near future.
Personally i feel metals are way to over stretched on the upside and it's time for them to move down.I have posted charts of Sail and have shared link of my analysis on tata steel on this platform and both charts are showing sign of weakness.
Hindalco being an aluminium and copper producing company has shown divergence from steel producing stock in metal sector up until now,but since last three days it has aligned itself with the broader markets and on the charts it seems like completion of double correction as well.
We can also see that price is following 18-days cycle and price has reversed around cycle low zone on 11-12 occasion.And the next cycle low period is coming on 27-10-21,hence bounce can be seen in price around that day and one should look to exit longs or build short position around that time.
Trade setup criteria
1)Prices needs to close below 475 in next 2 day's.
2)If 1st criteria is meet,then one should look to short the stock on bounce till 495-500(broken channel then act as Resistance).
3)If We should get a reversal candle in the form of shooting star,bearish pearcing,bearish engulfing around channel levels then one can initiate short trade on the next day when the low's of the reversal candle get's taken out.
stop-loss would be 530 on the upside and expected targets would be 475-425-389-360 on the downside.Time frame for this trade would be minimum 1 month.
DISCLAIMER:There is no guarantee of profits or no exceptions from losses. The study provided is solely the personal views of my research. You are advised to rely on your judgment while investing/Trading decisions. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Investment is subject to market risks. Seek help of your financial advisors before investing/trading.
I may or may not trade this analysis
Note
we have got faster retracement of prior swing in today's trading session,meaning on 8th october price closed @ 473.65 and from there on it took 5 candles to reach @ 551 high.Today we have closed @ 470.45 and entire fall took only 4 days to breach previous swing low,this clearly indicates change in momentum.If on Monday we get a pull back between 495-500 then one should wait for an hourly candle giving close below the low's of pullback's highest high candle.This would be our trigger for short sell trade.
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