Nifty Parallel Channel - Notes for Expiry Day

Updated

Marked a Parallel Channel that seems to work for now. Please note that all patterns fail at one point, and you can have multiple patterns that work at the same time.

Overall the bias is towards a strong Downside. Expect it'll oscillate between the Black and Pink Lines before taking a strong move either side. Will update once market opens tomorrow.

Tomorrow is an expiry day. Expecting high volatility. AVOID Buying Call Options if you see weakness in Nifty. Upside moves will mostly be TRAPS.

Downside: If 17339 is breached, you can consider shorting for Target of 17280. Post which you can look for 17220, 17150, 17057.
Upside: 17500 looks hard to breach at least for tomorrow.

Keep checking this space for updates during the Trading Hours.

Use my analysis to validate/negate your bias and don't follow Blindly.

Good Luck!

Disclaimer (credits: user indiamarketoutlook)
- The view expressed here is my personal view. We're not SEBI registered Analysts.
- Always have a STOP LOSS, particularly when you trade options.
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be

Trade active

Short Nifty for Targets 17417, 17389, 17339, 17280, 17222. SL 17417. Current Spot 17451. SL: 17480

Trade active

Very Risky Trade: 17350 PE @ 32. Target 50. SL 22.

Trade active

If you bought the PE, book partial profits at 47.

Note

Aggressive Selling of 17400 PE seen so far. It means for now 17400 will act as a support. So Careful when you buy Puts.

Trade closed: target reached

Close all your Shorts for now. Will update.

Note

Short Nifty. Targets 17350, 17339. SL: 17420. CMP: 17398. We're seeing aggressive Selling of 17400 CE now.

Trade closed manually

Gentlemen, SL Reached.

Trade active

Personally I would short Nifty now. Targets: 17448

Note

Keep booking partial profits. 17500 still looking like a credible resistance unless we see consecutive candles closing above that level (i would be looking at 5min interval.)

Note

Exit Short positions if not already done. CMP: 17483.

Trade active

Fresh buy initiated. CMP 17467. Target 17500, 17530. SL 17440.

Note

Pretty Close to Target 1. Book partial profits.

Note

Target 1 Reached. Book partial profits & Wait for 2nd Target, Revised to 17525.

Note

Target 2 in sight. Book partial profits. CMP 17521.

Note

It's Buy on Dips now. Based on your Risk Appetite, take long positions. Targets: 17525, 17539, 17550, 17580. SL: 17488. CMP: 17518

Note

100 Minutes to expiry. I would say there is enough drama left. I believe SL isn't triggered yet. Keep booking partial profits as it nears the Targets Will update here if I see weakness in Nifty.

Note

SL not triggered yet. 17516 seems to be a big hurdle for now.

Also, 17500 PE has marginally higher OI compared to 17500 CE. Max pain is 17500 for now.

It's called irony. Both 17400PE & 17550 CE trading at 8. One of them is 100 points from spot and other is 50 points away. Sellers taking buyers for a ride.

Note

Targets 1, 2 achieved. Pretty close to Target 3. Book partial profits. CMP 17547.

AVOID FRESH LONGS.

Note

40 MINS to Expiry. It seems Targets 3, Target 4 still looks achievable. CMP 17540.

Note

Get ready to Short NIFTY guys. Target 3 is done. If it at all gets near Target 4, and if you've the Risk Appetite, go short. CMP 17551

Note

Buy 17550 CE @ 12 for a Target of 30. SL: 9.

Trade closed manually

SL reached. It was a very risky trade.

Note

BUY 17550 PE @ 22 for a TArget of 44

Note

Trade closed manually. Bad call again.

Note

Day End Notes:

Few good calls & a Few Bad Calls in the day, especially the ones that involved options towards the end of the day. Bad calls SL hopefully limited the losses.

We were correct not to go long when the day started, shorts worked fine until Nifty broke 17417 resistance. Sensed 17400 is turning out to be support, but didn't take chances. It was an opportunity missed.

17500 CE had huge OI first few hours, but things changed very quickly. That was one reason for not going long around 17417.

Rest of the trades were spot on except the stupid option trades suggested at the end.

Morals for the Day:
1. Avoid buying options towards the end of the day unless you've a credible bias.
2. Things change quickly. So always have a stop loss.

nifty_futures_options

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