Short

Updated

The AI led correction

I still believe a correction is coming and I believe tech will outperform to the downside once again. In the video I look at various megacap stocks and show how many of them are at important resistance levels. Could we sell off and go higher anyway? Yes. Could we ignore all of these indicators and levels and just blow up through them? Yes, possible but not likely.

For me, this is an area to accumulate shorts on tech, but not everyone is going to agree with it.

Technically it makes sense and I believe with all the constant AI talk, psychologically it makes sense as well.

Good luck!

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sell off as i thought with fomc but hourly rsi is way oversold, I think it's a trap, but we'll see soon enough usually the market is not this easy....

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one more high tomorrow is likely, maybe at open we are above 4400 on spx (chart below). All of the tech names I mentioned should have one more high as well and qqq should get to 368- maybe 370

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good morning, the futures are selling off, but with important economic numbers at 830 we still have a chance at a higher high today. The 4hr rsi is already quite low as is the 2 hr, so I'm expecting at least a move up to try and get higher after the numbers. Will update if incorrect.

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this channel looks better, so if they rally, I will use this.

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from yesterday's rising wedge, they are finding support at it's top. I still think higher.

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looks good for top of the channel today or tomorrow, probably today.

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most tech stocks now have their higher high and daily divergence i mentioned in the video. Still some room to move up if they want to but this is technically what I was looking for.

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i'm away at my desk for most of today, but this is what I'm watching on SPX -

A break of the red line and we're out of the channel. I would consider that bearish. A break of the purple and we have a false breakout, more bearish.

I expect higher today but at least a pullback, but if for some reason selling starts in earnest, these levels would be most interesting to see if they hold for a buyable dip or break down. Good luck!

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ok sort of a fomo day. QQQ reached 371 and the daily BB, a little overthrow is fine with the momentum. It's the area that counts, and we're there.
Let's see how it looks tomorrow.

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the hourly rsi looks like it wants higher, but unlike yesterday when it was at it's lows, we're already quite high. A little higher to make another bear divergence is likely but I think today may not be as bullish as yesterday. Good luck!

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Good morning, the market selling after another divergent high at open. I don't know if we have more upside or not, but below are some levels to watch.

Ultimately nothing really means much in terms of the bearish side until 4300 gets taken out. That's the "breakout area" for the market. If we get under there, the monthly and weekly candles will look like a false breakout. If this happens (a BIG IF) this could take at least few days and probably more. Keep in mind that Monday is a holiday and the market loves to trap traders when it gets a chance. The monday holiday with only futures trading might be that opportunity, I don't know.

Technically everything looks complete to my eye but that can change by Tuesday, so caution is warranted on both sides.

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hourly rsi could make one more run up still, I personally would like to see that but I don't know if it will happen.

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they are breaking back into the channel from yesterday, I expect a fight around here but right now this looks better for bears in the short term.

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two possible scenarios here over the long weekend. We'll see what futures say as we get into monday- tuesday. Have a great weekend.

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Good morning, futures are selling off but we should see some support around 4380. If that breaks, 4300 would come fairy quickly I would think. The mid time frame RSI is as low as it usually gets before bulls run it up to a higher high - so that is still possible.

Right now I think we'll have further selling to 4300 within a few days. A gap and go today at open would be ideal - it traps bulls holding over the weekend and keeps bears waiting for a larger bounce to short which doesn't come.

This week is very busy and I'll be away most of today. I will update when I get the chance, but not as frequently. Good luck!

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target area reached, I expect a fight here for the day.

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with the hourly rsi this low, a move up into the close of the day is possible - it would convince traders that "buy the dip" still works and then tomorrow we may sell more. Watch for a formation of a head and shoulders over a day or two, doesn't have to but it would reset the smaller time frame rsi's nicely. ok going out now, see you tomorrow!

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ok, so while i was away they did run it up a bit as the hourly rsi was too low and we were at structural support. My feeling is we'll go higher into tomorrow to around 4410-20 and then sell. If I'm wrong I will update in the morning.

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powell speaking tomorrow a 10am est

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good morning, I still expect a bounce today although it may get down to the green line before a small rally. If there is a rally, it may be with Powell speaking at 10am, we'll see.

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alternative idea - we are currently at the green line support.

IF it breaks, the head and shoulders may be finished already and any rally back to the neckline would be an objective short.

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qqq also looking like a head and shoulders right now, target if so is 353, previous support.

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qqq is down 1.5% while spy is down .5 percent. Tech out performing to the downside

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semis (NVDA etc) outperforming qqq to the downside.

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Good morning -

more selling overnight, but with the 4 hr rsi this low and a support shelf right below, I expect a bounce to 4400-4410 starting today. This support shelf may be a neckline of a larger head and shoulders.

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same chart, with no lines -

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on this bounce (if that's what comes) QQQ should outperform to the upside, 367 target.

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bounce looks good esp on QQQ, but I expect a pullback and then further up into Friday

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as of now this looks more likely for today but let's see how strong the buyers are.

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the larger head and shoulders traditional target on SPX now would be about 4250. 4300 should still be support for a bounce unless we melt down very quickly.

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pushing a bit higher on QQQ makes sense, but I don't think they will fill the gap.

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I'll be away for the weekend so no updates till Monday. Right now the QQQ target from the last update has been reached.

If they keep pushing up today into monday, QQQ could get to 367 or more. If they reject from here, Monday could gap down below the neckline and we start getting down rather quickly to 352 area, from there a bounce would be logical. In that case, another larger and shoulders may be forming only which would target the 320 area, but that would take at least a few weeks to accomplish if it happens.

Everything I'm thinking gets negated if QQQ gets over 372 again. The market could also idle and bounce around and go nowhere, but If we start breaking down
hard I would think people would want out quickly. The old adage - "stairs up, elevator down"

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TYPO - should read "another larger Head and Shoulders may be forming"

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back from a small vacation, QQQ has broken support. It may pop up and backtest it but otherwise I think it will continue to 350. From there another bounce would create a larger head and shoulders. Tech so far showing more weakness than other sectors since Jun 16.

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If semis get back into their channel, any backtest is a short to the bottom of the channel.

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on QQQ, we had a dump into the end of the day. We are close to 357 support here. Either we bounce overnight from here, or tomorrow we start the day with a gap down and rally up to test the 357 resistance. That option is noted below. The 4hr rsi is very low, so I'm looking for at least a bounce and then further selling to 350 area, maybe slightly under.

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good morning, SPX is in a channel and creeping down. I expect the channel to break and we go lower. Creeping markets tend to keep moving in the direction they are heading.

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looking for resistance at 4355 for spx. Above 4365 and it may be a breakout. Watching closely for either path.

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target area reached.

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Good morning, Market went higher than I thought it would but it seems to have filled out the head and shoulders pattern a little better. I expect a pump up at open and then selling rest of the day. If that's wrong I will update.

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we are in the target area, hard to say if it will turn or not, RSI could go either way.

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RSI needed a little more push to reset the hourly. We could go higher, but it looks like it may turn before the close.

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banks will have a stress test today

reuters.com/business/finance/whats-new-with-us-feds-2023-bank-stress-tests-2023-06-26/

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good morning, current pattern on SPX with hourly bear divergences. We'll see if at open they want to go higher or not.

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trendline broken, objective short on any retest of the line (with a tight stop).

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Backtest rejected, however small time frame RSI is very low, Shorts need to be careful. Market needs to break 4370 nd hold under to create a real reversal.

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q's looks like they want to go higher into friday

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good morning, so we did go higher. SPX is now playing with the previous structural line here. small time frame RSIs are all reset again.

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QQQ/SPY rsi on daily is too low, I expect a another push up. This means SPX continues to go higher and QQQ outperforms a little more, or SPX starts to drop and QQQ remains strong for little while more. Small caps likely start coming down first. Either way, Tech will likely stay strong until this ratio chart gets close to it's doubletop and I will update when that comes. This trade idea is now closed. Thanks for your support!

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quick update - qqq and spy both at their daily18ma, expecting support here or slightly lower.

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nice bounce from the 18ma, I believe QQQ could make one more high while the other indexes don't get that high.

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4hr rsi on SPX futures extremely low. One more high for a final C is certainly possible with a reading like this.

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the soxx etf (semiconductors) found support at the channel. A break below and retest of the channel would be an objective short.

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QQQ/SMH weekly - channel to watch.

the_sunship

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Q's to 287

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the_sunship

Also on:

Related publications

Q's to 287

by the_sunship