Updated

Windup for a downmove - SPX

The falling wedge pattern and rsi are not acting as bullish as usual. The fact that they couldn't get over the trendline last week on a huge push up also points to more downside. I think 4350 is the target, from there a bounce is likely. I will update if I'm wrong, but right now this is what I'm seeing.

Good luck!

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getting close to resistance again - it has worked for shorts before, no reason to believe it won't work now.

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target area reached, if correct tomorrow will gap down.

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gap down, so it was a bull trap yesterday. OK so today "should be" the day it breaks down. No promises, but it looks likely after yesterdays fake breakout. The opening or 830 retail sales numbers may bounce first but yesterday's high should hold as far as I can tell.

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"Maybe" something like this after open. I think any push up is a selling opportunity for a bigger down move.

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bottom of channel again, will they break it finally?

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small rally into close would not surprise me, gap down tomorrow again probable if they decide to ramp it.

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starting to crack, let's see if they try to save it by close.

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hard to say what's going to happen today. On one hand you have RSI on smaller time frames at pretty extreme lower levels, on the other, the daily rsi could drop more. With FOMC minutes today at 2pm maybe we get a sudden pop but I still think the momentum would push it down after regardless.

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2 hr view

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the market is creeping down. Usually when it creeps up they say "don't short a creeping market". With it creeping down like this it may be the exact opposite.

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muted response from the 2pm minutes, looks like they will test the blue trendline. I expect more downside.

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perfect backtest, I would think this keeps going to the 18 weekly ma around 4360.

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bounce overnight, but small time frames are sufficiently reset to drop again. I think we may finish this down move today. All other RSI readings are at extreme lows.

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here's another channel to watch

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reaction at the channel edge. I think they will sell the day and we may see a little panic today

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close up

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small time frame RSI already pretty low. If they get over the channel the selling may be done for now. A reversal would catch shorts off guard.

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if the move is done (possible) this would be the count on futures.

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QQQ now at support as well

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watch tech it just turned positive.

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SPX is at the channel. A rejection here and it probably starts to fall quickly. A breakout above 4420 would be very bullish

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nope, rejection for bulls. Looks like one more down to complete into EOD. Will update if not.

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Close to channel, I expect a spike through and then reversal, 18weekly ma is in that area as well. Everything i see is pointing to this general area as being support.

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probably sell the close but 4350 will be strong support. Target area reached, now I think a bounce (weak) for a while.

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Target area reached (18 ma weekly) overnight. If they can't rally here, then the 18ma will become resistance on the way back up when it happens.

the_sunship

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the_sunship

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