Well friends, this market has floated up beyond my expectations and exuberance is once again at peak. All technical signs such as F&G (money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/), P/C ratio and VIX compression indicate bulls completely believe that this *breakout* is on solid legs and is sustainable for the unforeseeable future. FOMO is at vertical velocity.
Honestly, I'm fairly close to throwing in the towel as a bear. However, my system triggered multiple critical signals at last Friday's close, most importantly the simultaneous triggering of the Hindenberg (orange background) and Titanic syndrome (black background) (T&H) signals. This was confirmed by other market watchers: marketwatch.com/story/an-ominous-sounding-hindenburg-omen-and-a-ohama-titanic-syndrome-are-forming-in-a-key-stock-market-index-2019-11-14.
We might say, "Hey, it's out in the public eye now, so it will likely become a non-event!"
However, let's explore history. Is a non-event what unfolded when these two T&H signals triggered last? Please observe my chart. It shows that each mini crash since 2018 was preceded by T&H. In fact, I traced the T&H back to 2007 and there was not a single time when it failed to predict some sort of market drop within a few days. Furthermore, other warning signals such as weakening RSI (top indicator) and MFI (bottom indicator) are also present. The final remaining piece is downtrend confirmation of the Mccellen Oscillator (middle indicator) which could arrive within days.
Given this, I'm pretty convinced I should remain a bear. How much will the market drop? Well history suggests at least 3%. Combining my technical efforts here with possible (remaining) bearish elliot wave counts suggests it could become something much bigger, within the realm of a 20-50% crash.
All I can conclude is this is the objective data I am presented with despite harbouring a feeling of desperation that it's time for me to also join the bullish party. Stay safe and good luck, friends.
Honestly, I'm fairly close to throwing in the towel as a bear. However, my system triggered multiple critical signals at last Friday's close, most importantly the simultaneous triggering of the Hindenberg (orange background) and Titanic syndrome (black background) (T&H) signals. This was confirmed by other market watchers: marketwatch.com/story/an-ominous-sounding-hindenburg-omen-and-a-ohama-titanic-syndrome-are-forming-in-a-key-stock-market-index-2019-11-14.
We might say, "Hey, it's out in the public eye now, so it will likely become a non-event!"
However, let's explore history. Is a non-event what unfolded when these two T&H signals triggered last? Please observe my chart. It shows that each mini crash since 2018 was preceded by T&H. In fact, I traced the T&H back to 2007 and there was not a single time when it failed to predict some sort of market drop within a few days. Furthermore, other warning signals such as weakening RSI (top indicator) and MFI (bottom indicator) are also present. The final remaining piece is downtrend confirmation of the Mccellen Oscillator (middle indicator) which could arrive within days.
Given this, I'm pretty convinced I should remain a bear. How much will the market drop? Well history suggests at least 3%. Combining my technical efforts here with possible (remaining) bearish elliot wave counts suggests it could become something much bigger, within the realm of a 20-50% crash.
All I can conclude is this is the objective data I am presented with despite harbouring a feeling of desperation that it's time for me to also join the bullish party. Stay safe and good luck, friends.
Note
Friends, the final trigger has signalled today. Daily MCO has turned red. Be prepared.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.