$SPY - Wave count

Last weekend I was leaning bullish - ultimately I was wrong and we went the bear route. So where are we going?

Well, as expected we bounced hard Friday. The divergence was the first sign that we would see a relief rally. I think now we are going to see a choppy three swing to the downtrend line - which also is the 61.8% retracement off the last impulse to the downside and where we meet up with the ATH AVWAP. So, all signs point towards that area. I would grab longs on the wave B flush as we likely rally hard to at least SPY 438 from there.

Once at SPY 438 we are at decision time again. Bulls you need to turn what I am showing as a "3 swing" into an impulse and break that down trend resistance. If you do so then bottom is likely in and we are on the way back to ATH. Failure or "Stalling" at that downtrend line and bears will regain control and take this thing down to 422 area as bottom. Technically either of these can be valid, but based on the volume of the sells bears are in control here still. I favor that we get rejected again at the downtrend, BUT I will be playing both directions and will be smart about entries and exits because we need more price action to really know which way it will go.

Bears - I would wait to add shorts until we reach downtrend resistance. A break above downtrend resistance is cut loss.

Bulls- long the next dip because that is either a "B" or a wave 2. We all know what wave 3's do - RIPPY RIPPY

Good luck out there Fam. Go get that $ and be ready to play either side. Perma anything can never succeed