SPY recent rally failed to make new highs

Sep 5

Looking back at the last two major rallies we see that the latest one has not broken above to new highs. Raises concerns of longer term rallies less likely to happen

• SPY is forming double top reversal pattern
  
• Longer term future rallies called into question
  
• More defensive sectors are experiencing rallies over the past year (XLU for example)
  
• Defensive sector long term rallies shows rotational shift from risk assets (tech) to safer assets (utilities, healthcare, gold)
  
• Seeing signs of late cycle investing
  
• 2025 could be a rough year for SPY and especially tech
  

Bullish purchases should be done with caution