$SPY - Grand overview - Elliott Waves PT 1

As promised - here is a grand overview PT 1

I am seeing us as being in a cycle wave 1 of a supercycle wave 5. I see the 2009 - 2011 peak as the last cycle wave 1 which had a measured move of 105% before correcting for cycle wave II.

So far in this cycle we have a measured move of 110%, so we could honestly be topping at any time. Need to stay nimble. If we were to peak here around 460 range then we could expect a drop down to somewhere in the 310-360 range. Last cycle wave 2 was shallow just breaking the 38.2, so that is promising.

Notice the RSI divergence here on the weekly. That is something to watch. The MACD appears to be curling up as if it wants higher, so we just need to wait and see. Also notice the 30 week MA (yellow line). The break of that and backtest has provided major short opportunities in the past. Take note of that and continue to watch it.

This is part 1, part 2 will dive into just what we have seen since covid low