SPY Wkly Chart - Long-term Analysis (It's time to be a BEAR)

Sep 9, 2015

SPY

A few observations:
- Building bear divergences
- Double bottom 181-182
- 9/21 EMA trending down
- MACD Negative (first time since 12/2011)
- First time crossed 100 MA since 12/2011

Even though $181 support held, the strong bull trend is losing momentum. I believe the days of faithfully making a new high following each market correction are history. Their is a high probability we won't exceed $214 this year.

It had a strong bounce off of the $181-182 support, forming a double bottom. It may continue to rise, but I expect it to lose momentum finding substantial resistance, especially between $200-214. I don't see it breaking $214, however if it does, I believe it would be short lived and be followed with an intense move back to $180 and possibly through $180 to $157.

If it doesn't beak $214, it could stay in a temporary range between $214-180.

A break of $180 would signal a fall to $157.52, 2007's high before the market dived.

Long-term...I'm bearish. I see the current price ($197.80) as a possible opportunity to SELL. Over $204 is a strong selling opportunity.

Bottom Line...Technically, a significant drop is coming and it will be sooner than later. I'm forecasting a 26-40% drop from 213.78 May 2015 high.