USD/CNH losing momentum, but still no signs of reversal

Apr 12, 2017

USD/CNH has been soaring since 2014 when it abandoned the low at 6.0166 and went on to form an ascending channel pattern. It appears that the pair has no clouds in sight and it might even be the case, as it has launched an attack at the psychological 7.0000 level where the upper trend-line of the pattern lies. Pressures from the channel top trend-line, a falsely broken pitchfork to the upside as well as from the aforementioned resistance have been successful in causing a small dip, but not to in violating the channel to stick to the pitchfork median line. While the channel might change slope with a break below the bottom trend-line to take on a more healthy position inside of the pitchfork, there are several factors to consider when it comes to satisfying demand below. A strong cluster consisting of a Gann angle, Fibonacci expansion and the median like are most likely to cut downside potential then and there – around 6.7828 the lowest. Furthermore, the level will come into play only in case of a prominent correction, but is likely to not even be targeted because of supply around 6.8303, the middle of the cluster where the pitchfork median could set the new slope into action. The ADX, however, shows some real trouble for the trend, displaying a 17.48 reading after the latest wave up, which suggests that the up-trend has been broken. The signal is consistent with our scenario of reduced steepness, for now denying any reversal potential, but not eliminating such a possibility if appropriate signals are sent while on the correction afterwards.