Bitcoin - Weekly H&S
This Potential H&S is not yet confirmed, but is tentatively valid according to the following criteria (I’ve made notes where it’s not as ideal):
1. A prior uptrend.
2. A left shoulder on heavier volume (point 3; blue star) followed by a
corrective dip to point 4.
3. A rally into new highs but on lighter volume (point 5;A; blue star).
4. A decline that moves (in this case, barely) below the previous peak (at 3) and
approaches the previous reaction low of 4 (not quite in this case).
5. A third rally (point B) on noticeably light volume (blue star) that fails to reach the top of the head (at point 5;A).
In order to be confirmed:
6. A close below the neckline (yellow dashed line)
A potential entry opportunity:.
7. A return move back to the neckline followed by new lows.
Volume supports the pattern:
High to left shourlder
Low to Neckline
Low to Head
High to Neckline
Low to right shoudler
To confirm, volume will be:
High through Neckline
Low back to neckline
High away from Neckline
The height of the head placed at the recent weekly close indicates the 0.236 fib as a potential target and entry point (green). This also lines up with the weekly 77 SMA (Orange) and the lowest point of the 4th wave (Image of daily chart posted below). This is all around the long term point of control since 2017 ( light blue; POC).
1. A prior uptrend.
2. A left shoulder on heavier volume (point 3; blue star) followed by a
corrective dip to point 4.
3. A rally into new highs but on lighter volume (point 5;A; blue star).
4. A decline that moves (in this case, barely) below the previous peak (at 3) and
approaches the previous reaction low of 4 (not quite in this case).
5. A third rally (point B) on noticeably light volume (blue star) that fails to reach the top of the head (at point 5;A).
In order to be confirmed:
6. A close below the neckline (yellow dashed line)
A potential entry opportunity:.
7. A return move back to the neckline followed by new lows.
Volume supports the pattern:
High to left shourlder
Low to Neckline
Low to Head
High to Neckline
Low to right shoudler
To confirm, volume will be:
High through Neckline
Low back to neckline
High away from Neckline
The height of the head placed at the recent weekly close indicates the 0.236 fib as a potential target and entry point (green). This also lines up with the weekly 77 SMA (Orange) and the lowest point of the 4th wave (Image of daily chart posted below). This is all around the long term point of control since 2017 ( light blue; POC).
Note
Lowest point of 4th wave (circled)Note
Note
6HR indicator analysis: Note
High volume (purple star) breakdown of neckline = H&S confirmed. Low volume return move to neckline could now occur before drop towards target. Note
Note
Note
Short term: 1.618 x the equal 1 and 3 waves = the potentially extended 5 wave, which would impulse to around 11300.
Note
Note
(entry lowered) Trade active
Short open:Entry: 10664
Stop: 11014
Target: 6861
R:R: 16.54
Note
Update: 
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