Strong bullishcase for NALCONational Aluminium Company Ltd | Weekly Elliott Wave Update
On the weekly timeframe, price has already exceeded the typical projection for Wave (5), confirming that the market is well into an ongoing impulsive phase, not a pending one.
Key structural observations:
Both Wave (2) and Wave (4) retraced close to 61.8%, indicating deep corrective behaviour earlier in the trend.
Despite these deep retracements, price has now surpassed the common Wave (5) target zone, strengthening the bullish case.
When earlier corrections are deep, the market often compensates by showing shallower retracements in the later part of the trend.
From an Elliott Wave guideline perspective, this opens up an important structural possibility:
The moves marked earlier as 1–2 and 3–4 may, in hindsight, evolve into a nested structure (1–2, 1–2),
Which would imply further impulsive extensions ahead, with Wave (3 of 3) and subsequent Wave (4 of 3) still to unfold.
However, such nesting cannot be labelled in advance and should only be confirmed as the structure reveals itself.
Conclusion:
The trend remains firmly bullish. Given the already-achieved Wave (5) extension and the history of deep corrections, the market may now progress with shallower pullbacks, while keeping open the possibility of structural reclassification as the advance matures.
This is a structural market study, not a trading recommendation.Follow me to get updates.Like this post if it helps you.
Community ideas
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Trendline Breakout in IRCON
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
HINDCOPPER: Trendline and Triangle Breakout, Chart of the MonthWhy This NSE:HINDCOPPER Chart Could Signal India's Next Major Commodity Play, even after giving such a robust run so far. Let's Understand in the "Chart of The Month"
As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate.
Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
Price Action Analysis:
Long-Term Trend Structure:
- Historical Peak and Correction: The stock witnessed a spectacular rally in early 2010, reaching an all-time high of ₹658, marking its glory days during the global commodity super-cycle. This was followed by a brutal multi-year correction that took the stock down approximately 90% to levels near ₹55 by 2013.
- Extended Consolidation Phase (2013-2020): After the sharp decline, the stock entered a prolonged seven-year consolidation phase, oscillating between ₹40 and ₹90, building a massive base structure. This extended sideways movement allowed weak hands to exit and created a solid accumulation zone.
- The 2020-2023 Recovery Rally: Post-COVID recovery and commodity reflation themes triggered a strong upward movement from pandemic lows around ₹30-40 to the ₹90-120 range, marking the beginning of a structural reversal.
- Triangle Breakout Formation: The chart clearly displays a large ascending triangle pattern formed between 2020 and 2025, with the stock making higher lows while testing resistance near the ₹420-450 zone multiple times. The recent price action shows a decisive breakout above this multi-year resistance.
Current Price Action:
- Breakout and Retest: The stock has broken out from the ascending triangle pattern and is currently trading around ₹475.60 (as of December 27, 2025), showing a gain of approximately 45% from its recent breakout point.
- Intraday Movement: Current session shows strong volatility with an intraday high of ₹480.85 and a low of ₹443.25, indicating active participation from both bulls and bears near record levels.
- Short-Term Performance: The stock has surged over 75% in calendar year 2025 and has gained approximately 74.8% in the last six months, significantly outperforming the broader Nifty 50 index, which is up only 10.83% year-to-date.
Volume Spread Analysis:
- Volume Surge: The volume panel shows exceptional activity in recent sessions, with December 27 recording 494.78 million shares traded versus the 20-day average of 166.43 million shares, representing nearly 3x the normal volume. This indicates strong institutional and retail interest.
- Second Best Volume in History: Recent sessions have recorded the second-highest volume in the stock's trading history, suggesting a major accumulation or distribution phase.
- Volume Confirmation: The breakout from the triangle pattern is accompanied by robust volume expansion, which validates the move and reduces the probability of a false breakout.
Key Technical Levels:
Support Zones:
- Immediate Support: ₹415-420 zone, which represents the upper boundary of the recently broken triangle pattern. This level previously acted as resistance and should now provide support on any pullback.
- Secondary Support: ₹380-390 range, coinciding with the previous swing high from mid-2024.
- Major Support Base: ₹300-320 zone, which served as a strong consolidation area during the triangle formation phase. This represents a critical support level for the medium-term uptrend.
- Long-Term Base: ₹200-220 area, which marks the ascending trendline of the triangle pattern and would be a key level to watch in case of a deeper correction.
Resistance Zones:
- Immediate Resistance: ₹480-490 zone, representing the current all-time high region for this rally phase.
- Psychological Barrier: ₹500 level, a round number that often acts as psychological resistance.
- Historical Peak: ₹658 (all-time high from 2010), which remains the ultimate resistance target. However, adjusting for inflation and changed market conditions, this level may need to be recalculated.
Base Formation:
- Multi-Year Base (2020-2024): The stock carved out a large accumulation base between ₹150 and ₹450 over approximately four years, characterised by higher lows and repeated tests of the ₹400-420 resistance zone.
- Base Depth and Width: The base shows a well-structured pattern with good width (4+ years) and reasonable depth, which typically precedes significant upward moves.
Technical Patterns:
Ascending Triangle Pattern:
- Formation: Clear ascending triangle pattern visible from 2022 to 2025 with a flat top around ₹420-450 and rising bottoms connecting approximately ₹200 to ₹380.
- Breakout: Decisive breakout occurred in late 2024/early 2025 with strong volume confirmation.
Symmetrical Triangle:
- The cyan-colored triangle marked on the chart shows a shorter-term symmetrical compression pattern forming during 2024-2025, which has also been broken to the upside.
- This pattern suggests continuation of the bullish momentum with potential targets in the ₹500-550 range in the near term.
Higher Highs and Higher Lows:
- Since the 2020 bottom, the stock has consistently printed higher highs and higher lows, establishing a clear uptrend structure across multiple timeframes.
- Each correction has found support at progressively higher levels, indicating strong underlying demand.
Sectoral Backdrop:
Global Copper Market Dynamics:
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: The global copper market is sliding into a deficit, with the International Copper Study Group expecting a refined copper shortfall of around 150,000 tonnes in 2026, reversing previous surplus forecasts.
- Production Challenges: UBS forecasts deficits of 230,000 tonnes in 2025 and more than 400,000 tonnes in 2026 as mine disruptions in Chile, Peru and Indonesia collide with rising demand.
- Price Rally: International copper prices have surged approximately 36% year-to-date, reaching near-record levels above $12,000 per tonne on the LME, driven by tight supply and robust demand.
Structural Demand Drivers:
- AI and Data Centres: Data centres are estimated to need around 1.1 million tonnes of copper annually by 2030, close to 3% of global demand, representing a massive new source of inelastic demand.
- Electric Vehicles: Copper demand from the EV sector is projected to climb from 1.7 million tonnes per annum today to 4.3 million tonnes by 2035, growing at an annual rate of 10%.
- Energy Transition: The shift to renewable energy systems will require an additional 2 million tonnes of copper supply over the next decade, according to Wood Mackenzie research.
- Emerging Market Growth: India and Southeast Asia are expected to add 3.3 million tonnes of demand by 2035, translating to average annual growth rates of 7.8% and 8.2% respectively.
India-Specific Dynamics:
- Strategic Positioning: India is expected to surpass the United States as the world's third-largest copper consumer by 2050, reflecting rapid industrialisation and infrastructure development.
- Import Dependence: India currently imports a significant portion of its copper requirements, making domestic producers like Hindustan Copper strategically important.
- Government Focus: Copper has been included in the US Critical Minerals list, and similar designations globally highlight its strategic importance for economic and national security.
Fundamental Backdrop:
Company Overview:
- Monopoly Position: Hindustan Copper is the only Indian company mining copper and owns all the operating mining leases of copper ore in India, having access to about 45% of India's copper ore reserves and resources as of FY25.
- Vertical Integration: The company is India's sole vertically integrated copper producer, with operations spanning mining, ore beneficiation, smelting, refining, and rod extrusion.
- Government Backing: HCL is a Miniratna Category-I Central Public Sector Enterprise under the Ministry of Mines, providing it with government support and strategic importance.
Production and Operations:
- Production Capacity: Hindustan Copper produced approximately 537,000 tonnes of copper in the financial year 2025, outperforming private sector peers.
- Resource Base: The company holds resources and reserves of 755.32 million tonnes estimated as of April 1, 2024.
- Operational Units: HCL operates mines at Malanjkhand (Madhya Pradesh), Khetri (Rajasthan), and the Indian Copper Complex at Ghatsila (Jharkhand), along with smelting and refining facilities.
Recent Financial Performance:
- Strong Growth: Hindustan Copper reported a 39.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in consolidated revenues for Q2 FY 2025-26, with year-on-year growth of 38.5%.
- Profitability: Net profit increased 38.5% QoQ and 83% YoY in Q2 FY26, demonstrating strong operational leverage.
- Debt Reduction: The company has significantly reduced its debt burden, improving financial health and flexibility for expansion projects.
Strategic Initiatives:
- Revival of Rakha Mine: The company successfully executed a mining lease deed for the strategically important Rakha Mine in September 2024, which should boost future copper output.
- International Collaboration: HCL signed an MoU with CODELCO, Chile's state-owned copper mining giant, in April 2025 to exchange expertise and enhance capabilities in mineral exploration and processing.
- Expansion Plans: An MoU with NTPC Mining Ltd was signed in December 2025 to jointly pursue copper and critical minerals block auctions, indicating an aggressive expansion strategy.
- State-Level Partnerships: MoU signed with Madhya Pradesh State Mining Corporation for exploration of critical minerals, including copper, in the state.
Valuation Metrics:
- PE Ratio: The stock trades at a trailing PE of approximately 80x, which is elevated but reflects its monopoly position and growth expectations.
- Market Capitalisation: As of December 27, 2025, the company's market cap stands at approximately ₹42,992 crore.
Key Developments:
- LIC Stake Sale: Life Insurance Corporation of India reduced its stake from 6.086% to 4.072% through open market sales between August 2024 and December 2025, representing a booking of profits after the strong rally.
Risk Factors:
Technical Risks:
- Overextension: The stock has rallied 75% year-to-date and is trading well above its intrinsic value estimates, suggesting vulnerability to profit-booking.
- Resistance Ahead: The stock is approaching psychological resistance at ₹500 and faces uncertain price discovery beyond current levels.
- Volume Concerns: Extremely high volumes could indicate climactic buying, which sometimes precedes consolidation or correction phases.
Fundamental Risks:
- Commodity Price Volatility: As a pure-play copper producer, the company is susceptible to international copper price fluctuations.
- Production Constraints: Several of the company's smelting and refining facilities have remained suspended since 2019, limiting downstream value addition.
- Operational Efficiency: The company currently sells copper concentrate rather than finished products from some facilities, reducing margins.
- Execution Risk: Ambitious expansion plans through auctions and partnerships carry execution and capital deployment risks.
Market Risks:
- Valuation Multiple Compression: At current elevated valuations, any disappointment in earnings growth or copper prices could trigger sharp corrections.
- Global Economic Slowdown: Recession fears or China slowdown could impact copper demand despite structural growth drivers.
- Supply Response: Higher prices may eventually incentivise new supply additions globally, potentially easing the deficit.
Bull Case:
- India's Only Copper Miner: Monopoly position in copper ore mining provides strategic moat and pricing power.
- Structural Demand Drivers: AI, EVs, renewable energy, and India's industrialisation create multi-year demand tailwinds.
- Supply Deficit: Global copper market moving into deficit with limited near-term supply additions supporting prices.
- Operational Leverage: Fixed cost base means higher copper prices flow directly to the bottom line.
- Strategic Importance: Government backing and critical mineral status provide support for expansion.
Bear Case:
- Extreme Valuation: Trading at a 257% premium to intrinsic value leaves little room for error.
- Production Limitations: Suspended facilities and the concentrate sales model limit revenue potential.
- Execution Uncertainty: New projects through auctions are years away from production.
- Commodity Cyclicality: Copper prices could correct sharply if macro conditions deteriorate.
- Institutional Profit-Booking: LIC stake reduction signals some smart money taking profits.
My 2 Cents:
NSE:HINDCOPPER is at a critical juncture, benefiting from a rare combination of technical breakout, commodity super-cycle dynamics, and structural demand shifts driven by AI and electrification. But at these elevated valuations, be cautious and have disciplined risk management.
Full Coverage on my Mid-Week Newsletter coming Wednesday.
Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR.
NO RECO. For Buy/Sell.
📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable.
🙏FOLLOW for more
👍BOOST if you found it useful.
✍️COMMENT below with your views.
Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback.
As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate.
Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
Reliance Industries Limited Bullish Momentum BrewingTechnical Summary:
Trend: The market is currently in a short-term uptrend, with price respecting the ascending trendline drawn from recent lows.
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: ₹1,558–₹1,559 (recent consolidation area)
Stronger Support: ₹1,548–₹1,547 (key equilibrium/demand zone, highlighted in blue)
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: ₹1,572–₹1,573 (recent highs, marked in red)
Next Major Resistance: ₹1,581 (historical supply zone)
Trade Idea:
Bias: Bullish – supported by trendline and rejection from lower support zones.
Chart Observations:
Trendline Support: Price continues to respect the ascending trendline, indicating potential for further upward momentum.
Supply & Demand Zones:
Red zones denote supply areas where price previously reversed.
Blue zone represents a strong demand/equilibrium area, providing solid support.
Candlestick Structure: Recent green candles signal buying pressure near support, suggesting that buyers are defending this level.
Gold in Final Bullish Wave – Last Push Higher ExpectedGold (XAU/USD 4H) is in a strong bullish trend and is currently moving in the last part of Wave (5). The clear breakout above the previous resistance shows that buyers are in control, and the bullish structure is still valid. As long as the price stays above the main support area, the outlook remains positive, with the next target around 4,580–4,650 , where this upward move is likely to finish. For short-term trades, a sensible stop-loss can be placed below 4,420 , while the bullish view becomes invalid if the price falls below 4,360 . If everything goes as expected, Gold should make one final move higher and then take a normal corrective pullback (A-B-C) after the strong rally.
Stay tuned!
@Money_Dictators
Thank you :)
Institutional Option Writing StrategiesHow Smart Money Generates Consistent Income and Controls Risk
Institutional option writing strategies are advanced derivatives techniques used by large market participants such as hedge funds, investment banks, proprietary trading desks, insurance companies, and pension funds. Unlike retail traders, institutions approach option writing with deep capital, robust risk management systems, data-driven models, and a long-term perspective. Their primary objective is not speculation but consistent income generation, volatility monetization, and portfolio risk optimization.
Option writing (also known as selling options) involves collecting premiums by selling call or put options, benefiting from time decay (theta), volatility contraction, and probability-based outcomes. Institutions design these strategies carefully to maintain high win rates while controlling tail risks.
1. Core Philosophy Behind Institutional Option Writing
The foundation of institutional option writing lies in probability and statistics rather than directional prediction. Institutions understand that most options expire worthless due to time decay. By selling options with a high probability of expiring out-of-the-money, they position themselves as “insurance sellers” in financial markets.
Institutions also exploit the structural inefficiencies in option pricing, particularly the tendency of implied volatility to be higher than realized volatility. This volatility risk premium allows option writers to earn steady returns over time.
Key institutional principles include:
Selling options when implied volatility is elevated
Maintaining diversified option books
Avoiding naked directional exposure
Focusing on risk-adjusted returns instead of absolute returns
2. Covered Call Writing Strategy
Covered call writing is one of the most widely used institutional strategies, especially by asset managers and mutual funds. In this approach, institutions hold the underlying asset (stocks or indices) and sell call options against those holdings.
This strategy generates additional income through option premiums while slightly capping upside potential. Institutions prefer covered calls in sideways or moderately bullish markets where capital appreciation is expected to be limited.
Benefits include:
Enhanced yield on long equity positions
Partial downside protection through premium income
Lower portfolio volatility
Covered call strategies are commonly packaged into structured products and option income funds for conservative investors.
3. Cash-Secured Put Writing Strategy
Cash-secured put writing involves selling put options while holding enough cash to buy the underlying asset if assigned. Institutions use this strategy to acquire assets at discounted prices while earning premium income.
This strategy aligns well with long-term value investing. If the option expires worthless, institutions keep the premium. If assigned, they purchase the stock at an effective lower cost.
Institutional advantages include:
Disciplined asset entry points
Predictable income streams
Efficient use of idle cash
Large funds frequently deploy this strategy on index options and high-quality stocks.
4. Credit Spreads and Risk-Defined Structures
Institutions rarely sell naked options due to unlimited risk. Instead, they prefer credit spreads, which involve selling one option and buying another further out-of-the-money.
Popular spread strategies include:
Bear call spreads
Bull put spreads
Iron condors
Iron butterflies
These structures limit maximum losses while preserving a high probability of profit. Institutions use quantitative models to select strike prices that balance premium income with acceptable risk exposure.
Risk-defined strategies are essential for:
Regulatory compliance
Capital efficiency
Stress-test resilience
5. Iron Condors and Range-Bound Trading
Iron condors are a cornerstone of institutional volatility strategies. This approach involves selling both a call spread and a put spread, profiting when the underlying asset remains within a defined price range.
Institutions deploy iron condors in:
Low-volatility or mean-reverting markets
Index options such as NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, and S&P 500
Event-neutral environments
The strategy benefits from time decay on both sides and declining volatility after major events. Institutions manage these positions dynamically by adjusting strikes or reducing exposure as market conditions change.
6. Volatility Arbitrage and Vega Management
Institutional option writing is closely tied to volatility trading. Instead of betting on price direction, institutions trade volatility itself.
They analyze:
Implied volatility vs historical volatility
Volatility skew and term structure
Correlation breakdowns
When implied volatility is overpriced, institutions sell options to capture the volatility risk premium. Vega exposure is carefully managed to avoid large losses during volatility spikes.
Advanced desks hedge volatility exposure using:
Futures
Delta-neutral portfolios
Cross-asset hedges
7. Event-Based Option Writing Strategies
Institutions often write options around predictable events such as earnings announcements, economic data releases, and central bank meetings. These events inflate implied volatility, increasing option premiums.
After the event, volatility collapses, benefiting option writers. Institutions rely on historical volatility patterns and probabilistic models rather than directional forecasts.
Risk controls are strict, as unexpected outcomes can cause sharp market moves. Position sizing and defined-risk spreads are critical in these setups.
8. Portfolio-Level Option Writing
Rather than treating each option trade in isolation, institutions manage option writing at the portfolio level. They monitor:
Delta exposure
Gamma risk
Vega sensitivity
Correlation across positions
This holistic approach allows institutions to neutralize unwanted risks while maximizing theta income. Diversification across assets, expiries, and strategies reduces drawdowns and stabilizes returns.
9. Risk Management and Capital Allocation
Risk management is the most critical element of institutional option writing. Institutions impose strict limits on:
Maximum drawdowns
Margin utilization
Single-position exposure
Volatility regime shifts
Stress testing, scenario analysis, and real-time monitoring systems ensure that portfolios can withstand extreme market conditions. Institutions accept small, frequent profits while avoiding catastrophic losses.
10. Why Institutional Option Writing Consistently Outperforms Retail Approaches
The key difference between institutional and retail option writing lies in discipline, scale, and risk control. Institutions do not chase high returns or gamble on market direction. Instead, they focus on:
High-probability trades
Repeatable processes
Systematic execution
Long-term consistency
Their edge comes from data, infrastructure, and patience rather than prediction.
Conclusion
Institutional option writing strategies represent a sophisticated approach to derivatives trading, centered on probability, volatility, and risk management. By selling options strategically, institutions convert market uncertainty into steady income while maintaining controlled exposure to adverse outcomes. These strategies demonstrate that in professional trading, success is not about predicting markets, but about managing risk, exploiting statistical advantages, and maintaining consistency over time.
Nifty - Weekly Review Dec 29 to Jan 2The movement from 25700 to 26200 and the pullback towards the 26000 support zone looks like a rounding top bottom formation in process. If the price reaches 25700, then the pattern will be complete, and then it will give a pattern breakout.
Buy above 26020 with the stop loss of 25960 for the targets 26060, 26120, 26200, 26260, 26320 and 26360.
Sell below 25880 with the stop loss of 25940 for the targets 25840, 25780, 25720, 25660, 25600 and 25540.
Daily candle shows bearish strength, but the price is still sustaining above 26000. Observe how the price is behaving at this zone before taking any trade.
Bitcoin Is Quiet Again — That’s Usually When Big Moves BeginBitcoin spent multiple sessions moving sideways inside a clearly defined accumulation range.
This kind of price behavior usually signals one thing, strong hands are building positions while weak hands get shaken out.
Sideways markets are not random. They are preparation phases.
Price remained compressed inside the accumulation zone, showing balance between buyers and sellers with declining volatility.
The breakout candle was decisive and impulsive, indicating acceptance above the range rather than a fake move.
After breakout, price pulled back into the prior range high, which is a classic bullish retest behavior.
As long as price holds above the breakout base, the structure favors continuation toward the expansion zone marked on the chart.
A failure back inside the range, would invalidate the breakout and shift momentum back to neutral.
If this helped you read price better, like, follow, or comment, more clean structure studies coming.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets involve risk. Always manage your position size and do your own analysis.
$XRP is trading inside a clear falling wedge on the 1H chartCRYPTOCAP:XRP is trading inside a clear falling wedge on the 1H chart, a structure that usually forms during corrective phases rather than full trend breakdowns. Price has been making lower highs and lower lows, but the range is tightening — signaling selling pressure is gradually fading.
The lower boundary near 1.83–1.82 is acting as a demand zone where buyers keep stepping in. As long as this floor holds, the probability leans toward a breakout attempt rather than continuation down.
Bullish scenario:
• Break and close above 1.88–1.90
• Opens room toward 1.94 → 1.98
Bearish risk:
• Clean loss of 1.82
• Could drag price toward 1.78–1.75
Right now, this is a wait-for-confirmation setup. The move comes after the wedge breaks — not while price is still trapped inside it.
Bitcoin bearish scenario updateCRYPTOCAP:BTC Update
#Bitcoin is still trading below the key $93K–$94K resistance, so my bearish bias remains unchanged.
As long as price stays below this HTF bearish OB, I’m expecting continuation toward $75,000.
❌ This Bearish scenario only invalidates if we get a strong HTF close above $94,000.
Until then: rallies = selling pressure. Stay disciplined & manage risk.
NFA & DYOR
Gold Holds Rising Channel – Upside Targets Still OpenGold is trading inside a clean rising channel, forming clear higher highs and higher lows, which confirms that the overall trend remains bullish. Instead of chasing breakouts, price is now doing what strong trends usually do, pause and consolidate before the next move.
The marked buying zone sits perfectly inside the rising channel and has already acted as a strong demand area. As long as Gold holds above this zone, buyers remain in control and upside continuation remains the higher probability scenario.
Upside targets are aligned with the channel resistance, which adds further confidence to this setup. These types of structures often reward traders who wait for pullbacks rather than reacting emotionally to fast candles.
A breakdown below the marked invalidation level would weaken this bullish view, but until then, the structure favors patience and trend-following.
Key Levels to Watch
Best Buying Range: 4519–4515
1st Target: 4535
2nd Target: 4553
Final Target: 4570
Structure Invalidation: Below 4497
Trend Bias: Bullish above support
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Please do your own research or consult your financial advisor before investing.
NBCC - Weekly LONGNBCC on the weekly chart shows a clear improvement in trend after a long corrective phase. The stock has shifted into a bullish structure by forming higher lows and is now trading above its key moving averages, which have started to slope upward. This indicates that the broader trend has turned positive and buyers are gradually gaining control. The consolidation between the 110–120 zone worked as a strong base, and the recent move above this range confirms a trend continuation rather than a temporary bounce.
From a candlestick and price action perspective, the latest weekly candle is strong and bullish, closing near its high. This reflects solid buying interest and acceptance of higher prices. The absence of long upper wicks suggests that selling pressure is limited at current levels. The earlier resistance around 118–120 has now turned into an important support area, which strengthens the bullish setup and indicates a potential breakout followed by continuation.
Momentum also supports the positive view. The RSI is placed around the 60 zone, which reflects healthy bullish momentum without being overbought. Importantly, RSI is holding above the 50 level, showing that the stock remains in a bullish momentum regime. There is no visible negative divergence, which means momentum is moving in line with price and supports further upside potential.
From a trading perspective, a safer entry can be planned on a retest or sustained hold near the 118–120 support zone with bullish price confirmation, while aggressive traders may consider entries on a strong weekly close above 121–122. The stop loss should be placed below 114 on a weekly closing basis to protect against trend failure. On the upside, the first target lies near 130, followed by a higher target in the 137–140 zone, which aligns with previous supply areas. Overall, the structure favors swing and positional traders, with a buy-on-dips approach being more suitable than chasing the price.
ETHUSDn a range-bound market, my strategy is simple: buy near support and sell near resistance. Every trade is a step toward mastering the skill of discipline and consistency.
#ETHUSD #EthereumTrading #CryptoStrategy #SupportAndResistance #CryptoTrader #IntradayCrypto #CryptoDiscipline #TradingMindset #LearnCrypto #MasterTradingSkills #CryptoCommunity #BlockchainTrading #CryptoConsistency
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Resistance Breakout in SASKEN
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
Is $MONAD Bullish? Technical Structure Suggests 10x PotentialPrice is Consolidating in a range-bound Structure Between Well-Defined Support and Resistance, indicating active Accumulation.
🟦 Demand Zone: $0.020–$0.022
🟥 Supply Zone: $0.025–$0.027
A Confirmed Breakout and close above Resistance Would signal a Bullish Structure Shift and Continuation of the Uptrend.
Trend Remains Bullish above $0.016, the recent swing low. A breakdown below invalidates the setup.
Based on Structure and Expansion Potential, 10x Upside is possible in a Strong Altseason.
Volatility remains High, Risk Management is Mandatory.
NFA & DYOR
RITES Ltd (Monthly Chart – NSE)🔍 Chart Structure & Trend
The stock is in a long-term uptrend since 2020, marked by higher highs and higher lows.
Price action is currently moving within a symmetrical triangle / converging trendline structure:
Rising trendline support from 2022–2025.
Falling trendline resistance from the 2024 peak.
This indicates price consolidation after a strong uptrend, usually a pause before expansion.
🟦 Key Support Zones
₹235–240
Immediate support near the rising trendline.
Price has already respected this zone multiple times (as marked).
₹210–215
Major structural support.
Breakdown below this may weaken the medium-term trend.
₹185–190 (Extreme support)
Valid only if broader market sentiment turns negative.
🔴 Resistance Zones
₹270–280
Near the upper trendline of the triangle.
First hurdle for any upside move.
₹300+
Psychological & historical resistance.
Sustained breakout above this can trigger trend acceleration.
📈 Pattern Interpretation
Symmetrical Triangle after an uptrend → Bullish continuation pattern (probability-based, not guaranteed).
Volume contraction (if confirmed) would further support a breakout setup.
Directional move is expected once price closes decisively outside the triangle on monthly basis.
🧭 Possible Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
Monthly close above ₹280–285
Target zones (positional): ₹320 → ₹360 (time-dependent)
Neutral / Range-bound
Price oscillates between ₹235–280
Best suited for long-term investors, not aggressive traders
Bearish Scenario
Monthly close below ₹210
Trend weakens; deeper correction possible
🧠 Risk Management View
Trend remains constructive as long as rising trendline holds.
No aggressive positions advised inside triangle.
Confirmation > prediction.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is purely for educational and informational purposes based on technical chart patterns.
It does not constitute investment advice, buy/sell recommendation, or solicitation.
Stock market investments are subject to market risks. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor or do your own research before taking any financial decision.
"Time is more important than price" Lumax Industries Ltd.Time cycles in the stock market refer to the concept in technical analysis that price movements often follow recurring patterns over specific time intervals, allowing traders to anticipate potential turning points (highs, lows, or reversals). This idea is rooted in theories from pioneers like W.D. Gann and J.M. Hurst, who believed markets exhibit cyclical behavior influenced by natural laws, geometry, and harmonic ratios—rather than pure randomness.
Key Concepts of Time Cycles
Core Principle : Markets move in repeatable cycles (short-term like 10-20-40 weeks, or longer like 1-5-10 years). Lows or highs often align with these intervals, and time is considered more important than price for forecasting reversals (e.g., Gann's view: "Time is more important than price").
Popular Approaches:
Gann Time Cycles: Based on geometric angles, squares (e.g., Square of 9), and fixed periods (e.g. , 90 days, 180 days, 1 year ). Reversals expected when time balances price.
Hurst Cycles: Markets consist of nested harmonic cycles (e.g., ratios like 1:2). Uses tools like Future Lines of Demarcation (FLD) to project turning points.
General Cycles: Common ones include 10-week, 20-week, 40-week lows in stocks; seasonal (e.g., monthly) or event-driven patterns.
How to Identify: Measure distances between past lows/highs, project forward. Tools on platforms like TradingView include vertical lines or indicators for marking cycles.
Usage: Combine with price action, support/resistance, volume, or oscillators for confirmation. Cycles can invert or shift, so they're not foolproof.
Analysis of the Provided Chart (Lumax Industries Ltd - NSE, Daily Timeframe)
The screenshot appears to be a technical chart of Lumax Industries Ltd (auto ancillary stock, lighting systems manufacturer) on TradingView, dated around Dec 27, 2025.
Price Data: Open ~5552, High ~5573, Low ~5446, Close ~5471, down ~1.46%.
Chart Patterns:
Historical: Multiple consolidation bases (flat support zones) with breakouts upward, forming higher lows overall (bullish long-term).
Recent: Price broke out from a multi-year ascending triangle/channel (dashed blue trendlines), with a sharp rally followed by pullback/consolidation.
Annotations: Horizontal support/resistance lines, shaded consolidation zones, and a "68 bars | 100d" label (likely indicating a ~100-day or 68-bar cycle measurement from a low to current point).
Projected: Upward-sloping dashed lines suggesting potential targets around 5271-5500+ if breakout sustains.
This looks like time cycle analysis applied:
The "68 bars | 100d" points to measuring a cycle length (~100 calendar days or trading bars) from a prior low, projecting the next phase.
The ascending triangle breakout implies the stock may be in an "up" phase of a longer cycle, with time projection targeting higher levels in 2026.
Overall structure: Classic cycle phases—accumulation (flat bases), markup (sharp rallies), potential distribution if it fails.
If this chart is using Gann/Hurst-style cycles, the projection suggests a bullish continuation, with time aligning for a move toward the upper channel (~6000-6800+ by mid-2026, based on similar prior legs).
BSOFT 1 Month Time Frame 📌 Current Price Context
Birlasoft is trading around ₹445 – ₹450 on NSE in late December 2025.
📊 1‑Month Key Levels (Support & Resistance)
🔹 Immediate Resistance (Upside)
1. **₹455 – ₹458 ** – near recent short‑term highs / minor supply zone.
2. **₹461 – ₹466 ** – next resistance cluster.
3. ₹470 + – higher supply, medium‑term breakout zone.
📌 Resistance levels above ₹450 indicate where selling pressure has appeared in recent sessions.
🔸 Immediate Support (Downside)
1. **₹445 – ₹441 ** – first support cluster (near recent intra‑day lows).
2. **₹435 – ₹430 ** – strong short‑term demand zone.
3. **₹420 – ₹415 ** – deeper support if weakness extends.
4. **₹405 – ₹400 ** – major support from prior range consolidation.
📌 Bearish trigger: A close below ₹430 on a daily basis could bring lower support levels into play.
📌 Quick Trade Signals (Purely Technical)
Bullish view: Above **₹455 ** is positive momentum continuation.
Bearish view: Break and close below **₹430 ** weakens short‑term structure.
Trading Psychology: Your Offer vs Their Offer1. Understanding “Your Offer” in Trading
Your offer represents everything you bring into the market as a trader. It includes your capital, strategy, expectations, emotions, patience, discipline, and risk tolerance.
1.1 Expectations and Beliefs
Every trader enters the market with expectations—how much profit they want, how fast they want it, and how often they expect to win. Unrealistic expectations are one of the biggest psychological traps. When your expectations exceed market reality, frustration, revenge trading, and overtrading follow.
Markets do not owe traders consistency or profits. When your offer is based on entitlement rather than probability, emotional instability becomes inevitable.
1.2 Risk Appetite
Your offer also includes how much risk you are willing to accept. Many traders mentally underestimate risk while emotionally overreacting to losses. This mismatch leads to fear-based exits, stop-loss shifting, or position sizing errors.
A disciplined trader aligns risk with emotional tolerance, not just account size.
1.3 Discipline and Process
Discipline is the strongest component of your offer. It is your willingness to follow a system even when emotions push you otherwise. Without discipline, even the best strategy collapses under psychological pressure.
Your offer is strongest when it is process-driven rather than outcome-driven.
2. Understanding “Their Offer” – The Market’s Perspective
Their offer is the market’s response to your intentions. It is shaped by millions of participants, institutions, algorithms, news events, liquidity needs, and macro forces.
2.1 The Market Is Not Personal
One of the biggest psychological mistakes traders make is taking market moves personally. Losses feel like rejection, and wins feel like validation. In reality, the market is neutral—it simply facilitates transactions between buyers and sellers.
The market does not care about your stop-loss, entry price, or emotions.
2.2 Institutional Dominance
Large institutions, banks, and funds dominate liquidity. Their offer often involves accumulation, distribution, hedging, and risk management—not directional speculation like retail traders.
Retail traders who fail to recognize this often misinterpret market moves, expecting clean trends while institutions are executing complex strategies.
2.3 Uncertainty and Probability
The market’s offer is probabilistic, not guaranteed. Even high-probability setups fail. Accepting this uncertainty is essential for psychological stability.
When traders expect certainty, they fight the market instead of flowing with it.
3. The Negotiation: Where Trades Are Born
Every trade is a psychological negotiation between your offer and their offer.
You offer capital + risk
The market offers probability + volatility
Profit occurs only when your offer is aligned with what the market is prepared to deliver at that moment.
3.1 Alignment vs Conflict
When your expectations align with market conditions—trend, volatility, volume—trading feels effortless. When they conflict, emotional stress rises.
For example:
Trending mindset in a range-bound market leads to frustration
Scalping mindset in low liquidity leads to forced trades
Psychological pain often signals misalignment, not bad luck.
3.2 Timing Mismatch
Many losses occur not because the idea was wrong, but because the timing did not match the market’s offer. Impatience pushes traders to enter early, while fear pushes them to exit late.
Mastery comes from waiting until the market confirms your offer.
4. Emotional Traps Between Your Offer and Their Offer
4.1 Fear
Fear arises when your risk exceeds emotional tolerance. This leads to premature exits and missed opportunities.
4.2 Greed
Greed appears when traders expect the market to give more than it realistically can. This leads to holding winners too long or ignoring exit rules.
4.3 Revenge Trading
When the market rejects your offer through losses, ego often demands immediate compensation. Revenge trading is an emotional attempt to force the market to accept your terms.
Markets punish force; they reward patience.
4.4 Overconfidence
After a series of wins, traders believe the market has “accepted” them. Position sizes increase, rules loosen, and discipline fades—often before a sharp correction.
5. Psychological Maturity: Adjusting Your Offer
Professional traders do not try to dominate the market; they adapt their offer.
5.1 Flexibility Over Prediction
Instead of predicting outcomes, mature traders prepare scenarios. They adjust position size, strategy, and expectations based on market feedback.
5.2 Acceptance of Loss
Losses are not failures; they are the cost of participation. Accepting losses emotionally allows traders to stay objective and consistent.
A trader who fears losses will never fully receive the market’s offer.
5.3 Process Confidence
Confidence should come from following a process, not from recent results. When confidence is tied to outcomes, psychology becomes unstable.
6. The Power Balance: Who Controls the Trade?
The market controls price, but you control:
Entry selection
Position size
Stop-loss
Emotional response
Trying to control price is psychological self-sabotage. Controlling your behavior is professional trading psychology.
When traders accept this balance of power, stress reduces dramatically.
7. Long-Term Perspective: Relationship with the Market
Trading is not a one-time deal; it is a long-term relationship. Your offer improves over time through experience, self-awareness, and emotional regulation.
The market rewards:
Patience over urgency
Discipline over impulse
Humility over ego
When your offer becomes realistic, disciplined, and flexible, the market’s offer becomes more accessible.
8. Conclusion: Mastering “Your Offer vs Their Offer”
Trading psychology is the art of aligning what you want with what the market can realistically provide. Most traders fail not because they lack strategies, but because their psychological offer is incompatible with market reality.
Success comes when:
Expectations are realistic
Risk is controlled
Emotions are managed
Losses are accepted
Discipline is non-negotiable
In the end, profitable trading is not about forcing the market to accept your offer—it is about understanding the market’s offer and responding intelligently. When this balance is achieved, trading transforms from emotional struggle into a structured, professional endeavor.






















