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NALCO (W) - Strongly Bullish - Fundamentally-Driven BreakoutTimeframe: Weekly | Scale: Linear The stock has confirmed a major structural breakout, shattering a 2-year consolidation ceiling. This move is supported by a "trifecta" of bullish factors: a technical breakout to new ATHs, rising volume, and stellar quarterly earnings. 🚀 1. The Fundamental Catalyst (The "Why") The breakout is fueled by strong business performance, which gives the technical move high conviction: - Stellar Earnings: The company recently reported a ~35% surge in Net Profit (YoY) for Q2 FY26, driven by higher aluminum prices and operational efficiency. - Dividend Yield: The announcement of a ₹4/share interim dividend has attracted yield-seeking investors. - Expansion: A massive ₹30,000 Crore investment plan for smelter expansion and lithium acquisition is driving long-term re-rating. 📈 2. The Long-Term Structure > The "Box" Breakout: - Range: Between ₹137 (Support) and ₹263 (Resistance) . - Consolidation: The stock spent 4 weeks coiling just below ₹263. This "buildup" right under resistance is a classic bullish sign—it shows buyers were absorbing all supply before the breakout. > The Breakout: This week’s 5.07% surge with 54.78 Million volume is the "Ignition." By closing at a new ATH, the stock has entered "price discovery" mode. ⚠️ 3. Technical Correction: The "Double Top" Myth - Current Status: Since the stock has broken and closed above the previous high (₹263), the Double Top pattern is invalidated (or "busted"). A busted bearish pattern is actually a powerful bullish signal, as it forces short-sellers to cover their positions, adding fuel to the rally. 📊 4. Technical Indicators - EMAs: The PCO (Positive Crossover) state across Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes confirms the trend is synchronized. - RSI: Rising across all timeframes. Importantly, in a strong uptrend, an RSI above 60 is a sign of strength, not necessarily "overbought." 🎯 5. Future Scenarios & Key Levels The stock is now in Blue Sky territory. > 🐂 Bullish Case (Continuation): - Trigger: Sustained trading above ₹263 . - Target: ₹330 . This aligns with the technical extension of the consolidation range height added to the breakout point. > 🛡️ Support (The Re-test): - Immediate Support: ₹263. The previous "ceiling" is now the "floor." Any pullback to ₹263-265 is a high-probability buying opportunity. - Stop Loss: A close below ₹240 would imply the breakout was a "fakeout" (Bull Trap) and invalidate the thesis. Conclusion This is a Grade A Setup . The "Double Top" fear is gone; the resistance is broken. Backed by record profits and heavy volume, the path of least resistance is toward ₹330 . Watch for the stock to hold the ₹263 level on any dips.
NSE:NATIONALUMLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
2
NIFTY REALTY [CNXREALTY] ABOUT TO GIVE THE BIGGEST RALLY?Technical Setup 🚀 1. Trading in a parallel channel 2. 18-month ROC bottoming out 3. Flag formation on the monthly time frame 4. Multiple cup-and-handle patterns on the daily time frame 5. Breakout expected once it closes above ₹975 6. Short-term target: ₹1,240 (Cup & Handle) 7. Long-term target: ₹1,650 (Monthly Flag) Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! Not SEBI-registered ⏐ All views are personal ⏐ Not investment advice
NSE:CNXREALTYLong
by RaoBros
1
The struggle of a trader no one talks aboutWhy Chart Reading is Easy, Trading is Hard Reading a chart is an intellectual activity. Trading is an emotional activity. When you're reading a chart, you're using the prefrontal cortex — the rational part of your brain responsible for calculation, logic, pattern recognition. Here, you're objective. You see the trend clearly. You think, “If price breaks this level, I’ll buy. If it fails, I’ll exit.” But when money is on the line, another part of your brain takes control — the amygdala. --- The Amygdala: The Trader's Hidden Enemy The amygdala is the ancient survival system of the brain. It helped humans run from tigers, stay alert to threats, and survive danger. To the amygdala, losing money = threat to survival. So when price goes slightly against you, even if it’s normal market noise, the amygdala screams: •⁠ ⁠EXIT! YOU’RE IN DANGER! •⁠ ⁠WHAT IF IT CRASHES? •⁠ ⁠WHAT IF YOU LOSE EVERYTHING? Suddenly, the same breakout you trusted now looks like a bull trap. A healthy pullback looks like a reversal. A small red candle feels like the start of a collapse. You don’t see the chart anymore. You see fear. The brain starts creating patterns that don’t exist — just like seeing shapes in clouds. That’s why traders cut winners early, hold losers too long, chase entries, hesitate to click buy, and exit at the worst time. This is not lack of knowledge. This is biology. --- Junk Food and Trading: The Same Battlefield Think of junk food. Most people know it’s unhealthy. They know what to eat and what to avoid. They can explain calories, fat, insulin spikes — they’re logical about it. But late at night, when emotions rise, cravings hit. A samosa, burger, or chips suddenly look irresistible. Thoughts change like this: Before: "I shouldn't eat junk." During craving: "One bite won't harm." "I’ll start eating clean tomorrow." "I worked hard today — I deserve this." This is the same brain mechanism. •⁠ ⁠Rational brain knows the correct decision •⁠ ⁠Amygdala creates justification to satisfy emotion Charts work the same way. When you don’t have skin in the game, you’re rational. When you're holding a live trade, your amygdala creates excuses, fears, hope — stories that blind you. You begin to see a bullish chart as bearish, or see reversal even when it doesn’t exist. Just like junk food — you convince yourself into the wrong decision. Not because you're stupid. Because you're human. --- So How Do You Beat This? You don’t fix it by reading more books or analyzing more charts. You fix it by training your emotional system, not just your analytical one. Professional traders aren’t better at reading charts — they're better at managing what their mind does after entering a chart. The goal is not to eliminate emotions. The goal is to act despite them. --- Final Thought Charts are easy to read. But trading them requires you to fight the most ancient part of your biology. When logic meets money, the market is no longer outside — the real market is inside your brain. Win there, and price will follow.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by keshevdugar
8
PCR Trading Strategies Basics of Options Options come in two primary types: Call Options: A call option gives the holder the right to buy the underlying asset at a specific price (known as the strike price) before or on the expiration date. Traders purchase calls if they anticipate the asset's price will rise. Put Options: A put option gives the holder the right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price before or on expiration. Traders buy puts when they expect the asset's price to fall. Key terms every options trader must understand: Underlying Asset: The security or instrument upon which the option derives its value. Strike Price: The price at which the option holder can buy or sell the underlying asset. Premium: The price paid to purchase the option. Expiration Date: The last date the option can be exercised. In-the-Money (ITM): A call option is ITM if the underlying asset price is above the strike price; a put is ITM if the underlying price is below the strike price. Out-of-the-Money (OTM): A call option is OTM if the underlying asset is below the strike price; a put is OTM if above. At-the-Money (ATM): When the underlying price equals the strike price.
NSE:AXISBANKEducation
by SkyTradingZone
1
The EMA Cloud+RSI Combo That Traders Are Using to Catch Big MoveHello Traders! If you struggle with false breakouts and early entries, this simple combination of the EMA Cloud and RSI Confirmation can help you filter noise and catch cleaner trend moves. This setup works for Stocks, crypto, indices, forex, any market where trends matter. Let’s break it down in the simplest way possible. 1. What Is the EMA Cloud? The EMA Cloud is a zone created using two EMAs, commonly the 20 EMA and 50 EMA. When price stays above the cloud, the trend is bullish and dips become buying opportunities. When price stays below the cloud, the trend is bearish and rallies become selling opportunities. The cloud visually shows where momentum is strong versus where price is losing strength. 2. Why Add RSI Confirmation? RSI helps you avoid chasing overextended moves. You only take a trade when RSI aligns with the cloud direction, giving you confirmation. This reduces false entries and improves accuracy. EMA Cloud gives the trend. RSI gives the green signal to enter. 3. Entry Rules:– Simple and Clear For Longs: Price must stay above the EMA Cloud. RSI should be above 50 to confirm bullish momentum. Enter on a small pullback into the cloud or after a breakout candle closes above it. For Shorts: Price must stay below the EMA Cloud. RSI should be below 50 for bearish confirmation. Enter on a pullback toward the cloud or a breakdown candle. This combination prevents you from buying too early or selling too late. 4. Exit Strategy:– Keep It Clean Exit when price closes inside the EMA Cloud against your direction. Aggressive traders can exit when RSI crosses back below 50 (for longs) or above 50 (for shorts). Always trail your stop loss below the cloud to lock in gains. The cloud helps you ride the trend longer with less stress. 5. Why This Strategy Works So Well EMA Cloud filters the market trend. RSI filters the momentum. Together, they eliminate 70% of noise and give you only the smoothest trend trades. It’s simple, visual, and beginner-friendly, yet powerful enough for advanced traders. Rahul’s Tip: Don’t rush entries just because the market is moving fast. Wait for cloud direction + RSI confirmation, this patience alone can double your accuracy. Conclusion: The EMA Cloud + RSI Confirmation Strategy is a clean, reliable way to follow trends without second-guessing. It removes emotional entries, filters noise, and gives you structured trade opportunities. Use it consistently, and you’ll notice how much clearer your charts feel, and how much calmer your decision-making becomes. If this post helped you understand a simple yet effective trend strategy, like it, comment your thoughts, and follow for more practical trading setups!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
2
BSOFT: Trendline BO, Double Bottom Formation, Chart of the WeekIs NSE:BSOFT Technical Breakout Real? What the Charts Tell You About This Mid-Cap IT Giant's Next Move after Weaking Rupee and Strong Margins Recovery in Q2FY26. Let's Analyze in Chart of the Week. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. Price Action Analysis: Long-Term Trend Structure: - The stock experienced a strong uptrend from early 2022 to peak levels around ₹861.85 (High) in early 2024, representing a massive rally from the ₹250-300 base - Following the peak, Birlasoft entered a prolonged correction phase, declining from ₹861.85 to a low of ₹250.25, marking approximately 71% retracement from the top - Currently trading at ₹432.75 as of December 6, 2025, showing a recent +13.82% bounce - The stock has been consolidating in the ₹350-450 range for the past several months after bottoming out Current Price Action Characteristics: - Recent price action shows signs of accumulation near the ₹350-380 support zone - The stock broke above a descending trendline (cyan line on the chart) which connected the highs from early 2024 through late 2025 - This trendline break suggests a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish - The green horizontal box at the bottom (₹300-350 zone) appears to mark a strong demand zone where buyers stepped in aggressively - Post-trendline breakout, the stock has shown resilience with higher lows being formed Stage Analysis Interpretation: - The stock broke the trendline after a Stage 4 breakdown - Formed a Stage 1 type of double bottom base pattern - Was in Stage 2 Uptrend between April 2023 and February 2024 - No Stage 3 distribution pattern was visible on top - The presence of weak rupee and improving operating margins has added fundamental strength Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Distribution Patterns: - The volume chart shows significant spikes during key price movements - Major volume accumulation visible during the decline phase in late 2024 and early 2025, suggesting capitulation - Recent volume (25.13M) is substantially higher than the average (7.84M), indicating increased participation - Volume spikes coinciding with the recent rally from ₹350-380 levels suggest genuine buying interest - The green volume bars in recent sessions indicate buying pressure supporting the upward move Volume-Price Relationship: - During the downtrend, volume increased on down days, confirming selling pressure - At the bottom formation (₹300-350 zone), volume remained elevated but price held ground - classic accumulation behavior - The breakout from the descending trendline came with above-average volume, validating the move - Current volume levels suggest institutional interest is returning to the stock Base Formation and Support Levels: Base Structure: - A clear double bottom pattern formed at approximately ₹350-380 levels - The base formation period spans from mid-2025 to current levels - This base represents a 5-7 month consolidation, allowing weak hands to exit and strong hands to accumulate - The green box marked on the chart (₹300-350) represents the primary support zone Key Support Levels: - Immediate support: ₹380-400 (previous resistance turned support) - Strong support: ₹350-365 (double bottom lows) - Critical support: ₹300-320 (absolute base of consolidation) - The 52-week low at ₹250.25 acts as a psychological support level Support Significance: - The ₹350-380 zone has been tested multiple times and held firm, indicating strong buying interest - Volume accumulation in this zone suggests institutional accumulation - Any pullback toward ₹380-400 would be a retest opportunity for the breakout Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance Zones: - First resistance: ₹450-460 (previous consolidation highs) - Second resistance: ₹500-520 (psychological level and minor supply zone) - Major resistance: ₹600-650 (significant supply zone from the downtrend) - Ultimate resistance: ₹750-800 (prior distribution zone before major correction) Resistance Analysis: - The descending trendline, now broken, may act as dynamic support on pullbacks - The ₹450 level represents a minor hurdle but has been approached multiple times recently - Breaking above ₹500 would confirm the bullish structure and potentially trigger momentum buying - The journey to ₹600+ would require sustained buying and improvement in business fundamentals Technical Patterns: - Double Bottom Pattern: Clearly visible at ₹350-380 levels with two distinct lows - Descending Trendline Breakout: The cyan trendline connecting lower highs has been decisively broken - Rounding Bottom Formation: The overall structure from the peak shows a gradual rounding bottom (Not a Textbook Kind) - Higher Low Pattern: Recent price action shows formation of higher lows post-breakout (on Lower TF) Pattern Implications: - Double bottom patterns typically indicate trend reversal - The trendline breakout adds conviction to the bullish thesis - Continuation patterns forming above ₹400 would strengthen the uptrend structure Risk Considerations: - Failure to hold above the descending trendline (now support at ₹400-410) would negate the bullish setup - A break below ₹380 would signal renewed weakness - The stock must close above ₹450 on good volume to confirm the breakout Sectoral Backdrop - Indian IT Services Industry: Current Industry Landscape: - The Indian IT sector is navigating a challenging demand environment with 77% of providers expecting higher business growth in FY26 compared to last year, driven by growing foundational digital scope, emerging markets, and strategic AI-led demand - IT exports are expected to cross the $200 billion mark, growing 4.6% year-over-year to reach $224 billion in FY25 - The sector faces uncertainty due to global macroeconomic conditions, with clients delaying discretionary technology spending - However, IT spending in India is expected to rise 11.1% year-on-year to $161.5 billion in 2025 Emerging Trends and Opportunities: - AI and digital transformation continue to be major growth drivers across the industry - Overall IT hiring grew 16% year-over-year in April 2025, driven by AI adoption, cloud modernization, and rapid expansion of Global Capability Centres - Non-metro cities like Udaipur, Vizag, Coimbatore, and Nagpur are experiencing over 50% IT hiring growth - Mid-tier IT companies have shown better agility in navigating uncertain macroeconomic conditions compared to larger counterparts Sector Challenges: - The sector faces its eighth consecutive quarter of single-digit revenue growth, with weak client spending and reduced digital transformation budgets as main culprits - Rising H-1B visa fees and Trump tariffs are creating indirect headwinds for the industry - Life sciences and manufacturing verticals are experiencing softness - Margin pressures from rising wages, talent shortages, and shift to more onsite work models Fundamental Backdrop: Business Overview: - Birlasoft Limited provides cloud, artificial intelligence (AI), and digital technologies, combining domain expertise with enterprise solutions across banking, financial services, insurance, life sciences, energy resources, utilities, and manufacturing verticals - The company offers services in customer experience, data analytics, connected products, intelligent automation, blockchain, and generative AI - In fiscal year 2025, the company achieved consolidated revenue of ₹53,752 million, with the Americas contributing 86.5% of total revenue - Part of the CK Birla Group, bringing strong promoter backing and group pedigree Recent Financial Performance: - Q2 FY25 revenue was $163.3 million, showing 3.1% sequential growth in rupee terms and 2.6% in dollar terms, with year-over-year growth of 4.5% - Q3 FY25 revenue reached ₹1,383.48 crore, up 0.9% year-over-year but down 1.29% quarter-over-quarter - EBITDA margin dropped to 12.1% in Q2 FY25 from 14.7% in the previous quarter, partly due to pricing flexibility and increased on-site work - Net profit was ₹116.10 crore in Q2 FY26, down 8.95% year-over-year but showing 9.09% sequential growth Operational Highlights: - The company delivered approximately $300 million in deal signings in the first half of FY25, though lower than the previous year - Cash and bank balance stood at $221.8 million with operating cash flow of $12.9 million - Days sales outstanding (DSO) at 58 days remains among the best in the industry - Workforce strength of approximately 12,500+ professionals with attrition improving to around 11.8% Key Challenges: - Life sciences vertical has been underperforming and is expected to remain soft for a couple more quarters - Manufacturing vertical, the company's largest, experienced project closures and ramp-downs - Shift in revenue mix toward 51% onsite work has pressured margins - Customer decision-making delays have affected deal flow and total contract value performance Positive Catalysts: - Three of four verticals (BFSI, Life Sciences & Services, Energy & Utilities) delivered sequential growth in Q2 - Management indicates improving pipeline with expectations of better deal flow in H2 - Recent AWS competency achievements in Manufacturing and Industrial Consulting enhance credibility - CEO Angan Guha's reappointment for another two-year term provides leadership continuity - Weak rupee environment provides tailwinds for export-oriented revenue - Focus on improving operational efficiency and margin expansion through offshore shift Valuation Context: - Market capitalization stands at approximately ₹10,816 crore - The stock has corrected significantly from highs, potentially offering better risk-reward at current levels - P/E multiple compression during the correction phase may present opportunity if earnings stabilize Overall Technical Assessment: - The stock has completed a multi-month base formation and broken above a critical descending trendline - Volume confirmation on the breakout adds credibility to the move - The double bottom pattern at ₹350-380 provides a well-defined risk level for traders - Risk-reward ratio favors bulls with clear support and resistance levels Bull Case: - A decisive close above ₹500 would open doors for ₹600+ levels - Improving business fundamentals and sectoral recovery would support the technical breakout Bear Case: - Failure to hold the breakout level (₹400-410) would indicate a false breakout - A breach below ₹380 would negate the bullish setup and potentially retest the ₹350 base - Weak quarterly results or deteriorating sector conditions could trigger profit booking My 2 Cents: NSE:BSOFT presents an interesting technical setup after a prolonged correction. The completion of a double bottom base formation, coupled with a descending trendline breakout on good volume, suggests the worst may be behind for the stock. While fundamental challenges persist in the form of muted demand environment and margin pressures, the company's focus on operational efficiency, improving deal pipeline, and sector positioning in high-growth areas like AI and cloud provide reasons for optimism. The technical structure suggests that patient accumulation in the current range with strict risk management could be rewarded if the company executes on its operational plans and the broader IT sector demand improves. However, investors should remain cognizant of the challenging macroeconomic backdrop and monitor quarterly results closely for signs of sustainable business improvement. The confluence of technical breakout and improving operational metrics makes Birlasoft a stock worth watching for both tactical trades and strategic accumulation, provided risk management principles are strictly followed. Full Coverage on my Newsletter this Week Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:BSOFTLong
by Karanshah137
3
Tata Motors PV – Wave B/2 Near Completion, Bounce Zone ActivatedThe ongoing decline appears to be unfolding as a complex corrective structure, with Wave C of the larger Wave B/2 now approaching its typical termination area. Price has reached the 0.786 Fibonacci support at ₹350.35 — a level where deeper corrective phases frequently exhaust themselves. Structurally, the final leg of Wave C shows a clear five-wave micro pattern, and downside momentum has begun to fade. The RSI is printing early bullish divergence, suggesting that sellers are losing strength even as price tests fresh lows. This combination often precedes a relief bounce within the broader framework. As long as the price respects ₹323.45, this corrective interpretation remains valid and a bounce from the current zone is the preferred expectation. A decisive close below the invalidation level would signal that the correction is not yet complete and that a deeper retracement is unfolding. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:TMPVLong
by WaveXplorer
Techm Wakes Up! Reversal CandidateHi Traders! Hope all you are doing well and doing good trades, So today I am sharing a clean technical setup which I’ve been tracking for weeks Tech Mahindra has finally given breakout from a multi-month falling wedge along with a horizontal resistance flip. The structure is now turning bullish, and the chart tells a very clear story. Chart Observations-: Falling Wedge Structure (May–Nov). Price continued making lower highs and lower lows inside a narrowing wedge. Both falling resistance and falling support have been respected multiple times. Repeated bounces from the lower trendline (green arrows) indicate accumulation. First Breakout Attempt – Rejection-: Price attempted a breakout near the adjoining resistance in September. Sharp rejection followed (red arrow), keeping the wedge intact. This rejection later acted as a reference level for the final breakout. Final Breakout with Strong Momentum-: In early December, price decisively broke above the wedge’s falling resistance. Breakout candles are wide-bodied and supported by rising volumes a strong technical sign. Horizontal Resistance Flip-: The stock crossed the old resistance zone near 1475 and then sustained above it. This zone has now flipped into support, confirming bullish continuation. The next major Target Resistance sits in the 1680–1720 region the logical wedge target projected from pattern height and price resistance too. Technical Summary- Pattern: Falling Wedge (bullish reversal) Breakout: Clean and decisive Market Structure: Lower-highs broken → Higher-highs forming Resistance target: 1720 View: Bullish as long as price sustains above recent breakout zone. This is one of those setups where price action aligns perfectly with classical charting principles. Target is nearby 11% from current price so 1:2 Risk to reward looks good for me, Rest I will update the idea accordingly guys. Thanks for reading. Regards- Amit.
NSE:TECHMLong
by AMIT-RAJAN
1
OBV + MACD Confirmed FVG📉 Bitcoin – Bearish FVG Retracement With EMA200, OBV & MACD Momentum Confluence This chart highlights a clean bearish structure on BTC, defined by a consistent sequence of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). Throughout this downtrend, multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) have formed — each created by sharp institutional displacement that leaves behind inefficiencies in price. As price continues trending below the EMA200, bearish order flow remains firmly intact. Each time BTC retraces into an unmitigated FVG, the market efficiently rebalances the imbalance before resuming downward continuation. In this setup, the integration of FVGs + EMA200 + OBV + MACD Histogram builds a high-probability roadmap for identifying premium retracement zones and anticipating continuation moves. The major FVG above current price sits directly under the EMA200 and aligns with weakening OBV momentum. This makes it the most structurally significant bearish reaction zone. A secondary FVG exists below it, but carries less importance due to weaker displacement and reduced confluence. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 📊 Key Observations 1️⃣ Prior Bearish FVG Reaction A previously formed bearish FVG was cleanly mitigated, followed by immediate downside continuation. This confirms that institutional order flow remains bearish and that FVG zones are functioning as efficient retracement magnets in the current trend. 2️⃣ High-Priority FVG Under EMA200 (Primary Zone) This upper FVG has the strongest confluence: Formed by strong bearish displacement Sits directly below the EMA200, reinforcing trend direction Aligns with market structure (LH → LL sequence) OBV shows weakening buying pressure as price approaches the zone MACD histogram is decreasing into FVG, signaling bearish momentum shift This makes it the most likely level for a significant rejection if price retraces into it. 3️⃣ Secondary FVG Reaction Zone A lower FVG also exists, but: Formed during a smaller displacement Does not align with EMA200 rejection Carries weaker structural significance It may still produce a minor reaction, but is lower probability compared to the primary FVG above. 4️⃣ OBV Momentum Context OBV declines as price approaches the FVG, which is a critical confirmation. When OBV decreases during a retracement, it signals absorption of buy-side pressure → strengthening the bearish continuation case. 5️⃣ MACD Histogram Confirmation MACD histogram is rolling over and turning negative as price pushes toward the FVG. This confirms bearish momentum returning, increasing the probability of a strong rejection from imbalance. 6️⃣ Structural Context BTC maintains a clean LH–LL bearish sequence. As long as price remains under the EMA200 and below the unmitigated FVGs, retracements are more likely to act as rebalancing moves rather than true reversal attempts. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 📊 Chart Explanation Symbol → BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Timeframe → 1D This visualization demonstrates how Smart Money Concepts and momentum indicators align within a trending environment: Clear LH → LL market structure Multiple historical FVGs acting as premium retracement zones A previously mitigated FVG confirming downside continuation A high-confluence bearish FVG below the EMA200 OBV weakness during retracement phases MACD histogram declining into FVG retest Together, these elements create a textbook sequence: displacement → inefficiency → retracement → mitigation → continuation Price remains bearish unless BTC can break and close above the upper FVG with strong momentum and volume. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 📘 How EMA200, OBV & MACD Strengthen FVG Setups (Bullish + Bearish) 🔹 1. Trend Filter: EMA200 Below EMA200 → look for bearish FVG rejections Above EMA200 → look for bullish FVG reactions EMA200 acts as a dynamic mean-reversion anchor during trending markets. 🔹 2. OBV + FVG OBV declining on FVG retest → bearish continuation OBV rising into bullish FVG → bullish continuation Volume trend strengthens or invalidates FVG reactions. 🔹 3. MACD Histogram + FVG Falling histogram → bearish FVG confirmation Rising histogram → bullish FVG confirmation MACD shows whether momentum aligns with the imbalance. 🔹 Combined Logic (Works Both Ways) Displacement creates an FVG Price retraces into the FVG Trend filter (EMA200) agrees OBV + MACD confirm volume + momentum direction Price rejects and continues trend. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ ✅ Summary Market structure remains bearish with LH → LL continuity A previously filled FVG validated downside continuation The upper FVG is the highest-probability zone (EMA200 + OBV + MACD alignment) The secondary imbalance carries lower significance OBV and MACD both confirm weakening buyer pressure into FVG As long as BTC stays below EMA200, retracements into FVG are likely continuation setups ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ ⚠️ Disclaimer 📘 For educational purposes only 🙅 Not SEBI registered ❌ Not financial or investment advice 🧠 Smart-Money-Concepts explanation only
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MarketAlgoBot
Why Gold Hits Your SL🌟 Why Gold Hits Your SL 😭💛📈 Gold is one of the most aggressive and volatile assets in the market — and if you’ve ever wondered “Why does gold ALWAYS hit my stop-loss before moving in my direction?”, this post explains the real reason. Let’s break it down clearly 👇 🔶 1. Gold Loves Liquidity — Not Levels 💦💰 Gold doesn’t move based on your support/resistance lines. It moves based on liquidity, meaning: Where traders place stop-losses ❌ Where pending orders sit 🎯 Where large institutions want to fill positions 🏦 Your SL is simply sitting where everyone else puts theirs, which makes it prime liquidity. 🔶 2. XAUUSD Spikes Are Designed to Collect Orders ⚡💥 Gold often creates sudden: Wicks Fake breakouts Quick pumps or dumps Sharp candle spikes These moves are NOT random — they’re engineered to: 🔸 Trigger stop-losses 🔸 Activate pending buy/sell orders 🔸 Grab liquidity before the real move This is why your SL gets hit by $1–$3 before price completely reverses. 🔶 3. Gold Moves Session-by-Session 🕒🌍 Gold behaves differently depending on the time of day: Asia session → Slow, tight range London session → First big manipulation New York session → Volatility explosion + real direction Most SL hunts take place when London opens or when NY session begins ⚠️🔥 🔶 4. Clean Highs & Lows = SL Magnets 🧲📌 Gold LOVES attacking: Previous day’s high/low Asian range high/low London session extremes Double tops & bottoms Round numbers (like 4000 / 4050 / 4100) These areas hold thousands of stop-losses. So before gold takes a real direction — it sweeps them first. 🏹😈 🔶 5. The Classic Gold Pattern: Trap → Reversal → Expansion 🔁🚀 Most XAUUSD moves follow this sequence: 1️⃣ Sweep liquidity 😭 2️⃣ Fake breakout 😈 3️⃣ Sharp rejection 👋 4️⃣ Real trend begins 🚀 If you’ve ever seen price: Break a level Wick hard Then reverse the entire move That’s gold performing a liquidity grab. 🔶 6. How To Avoid Getting Stopped Out ✔️ Here’s what actually helps: 🌟 A. Don’t put SL exactly at obvious levels Move it beyond common liquidity zones. 🌟 B. Wait for the sweep before entering Let gold perform the trap first. 🌟 C. Trade reaction — not prediction Look for re-entry after the wick forms. 🌟 D. Use sessions to your advantage Avoid placing SL right before London/NY opens. 🌟 Final Words Gold isn’t hunting you — it’s hunting liquidity. Your job is simple: 👉 Stop placing stops where everyone else does 👉 Let gold sweep liquidity first 👉 Then catch the real move Trade smarter, not tighter. 💛⚡
TVC:GOLDEducation
by XAU_EMPIRE
SBI Buy - Range Breakout - Technical analysis#State Bank of India - #TechnicalAnalysis - #sbin Price: 948.85 | #Technical Setup Pattern: #Swing trade setup with All-Time High (ATH) breakout confirmed on monthly chart. #Pullback/base formation in progress before next upward move. Strategy: Conservative buy on breakout on candle-closing basis Entry: Buy above 973.30 Stop Loss: 944.45 **Key Levels:** - Target 1: 1,025.00 - Target 2: 1,055.80 - Grand Target: 1,144.00 - Support: 961.78 - 944.45 #Technical Observations 1. **Range & ATH Breakout** confirmed on monthly timeframe 2. Current pullback/base formation before next leg up 3. **EMA's aligned** confirming uptrend structure 4. **Hidden Divergence (HD)** formed in RSI - trend continuation pattern 5. Price action remains constructive on daily chart ⚠️ DISCLAIMER **This is NOT investment advice.** This analysis is for educational purposes only. Stock trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance and technical patterns do not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for trading losses incurred.
NSE:SBINLong
by earnwhileulearn
Sensex - Weekly review Dec 8 to Dec 12The price has reached the target of the rounding bottom pattern. And it is near the support zone 85500. Next nearby resistance is at 86000 - 86100. Buy above 85620 with the stop loss of 85500 for the targets 85740, 85860, 85980, 86100, 86260, 86340 and 86480. Sell below 85400 with the stop loss of 85540 for the targets 85280, 85140, 85020, 84880, 84740 and 84580. Double top resistance is seen at the 86150 zone. Profit booking can happen at that level. Always do your analysis before taking any trade.
BSE:SENSEX
by vanathi
HCLT - Buy - Technical Analysis#HCL Technologies Limited - Technical Analysis Price: 1,683.00 | #Trade Setup - Bullish Reversal #Outlook Strong bullish setup with 4-35% upside potential. The failed bearish head & shoulder pattern combined with monthly demand zone bounce suggests institutional accumulation. Breakout above 1,745 opens path to 1,951 and beyond. Pattern Analysis: 1. Bounced from monthly demand zone - Strong support established 2. Made higher low in monthly chart - Trend reversal signal 3. Failed Bearish Head & Shoulders pattern - Bears trapped, bullish continuation 4. Breakout confirmed on weekly chart - Momentum shift 5. Typical double bottom formation - Classic reversal pattern Technical Structure: - Monthly higher low at 1,390 confirms bullish structure - Failed H&S pattern invalidation is highly bullish - Price now targeting previous resistance zones Target Levels: - Target 1: 1,745.00 - Target 2: 1,951.25 - Target 3: 2,272.70 Support: 1,572 - 1,551 (critical zone) ⚠️ DISCLAIMER **NOT investment advice.** Educational analysis only. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past patterns don't guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor. Author assumes no responsibility for losses. #HCLTech #StockMarket #NSE #TechnicalAnalysis #ITStocks #IndianStockMarket #SwingTrading #Trading #FinTwit #TradingView #ChartAnalysis #StocksToWatch #Nifty50 #TechStocks
NSE:HCLTECHLong
by earnwhileulearn
Wave (5) Meets a Hanging Man: Trend Fatigue in Bank NiftyBank Nifty has printed a valid Hanging Man at the Wave (5) zone, right inside the 1–1.618 Fibonacci cluster. RSI is flattening near overbought, and the RBI’s Friday rate cut failed to extend the rally. This points to visible trend fatigue. A reversal, however, will only be confirmed if next week closes below the Hanging Man’s real body. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR).
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by WaveXplorer
Muthoot Finance Limited - Breakout Setup, Move is ON...#MUTHOOTFIN trading above Resistance of 3743 Next Resistance is at 4422 Support is at 3007 Here are previous charts: Chart is self explanatory. Levels of breakout, possible up-moves (where stock may find resistances) and support (close below which, setup will be invalidated) are clearly defined. Disclaimer: This is for demonstration and educational purpose only. This is not buying or selling recommendations. I am not SEBI registered. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
NSE:MUTHOOTFINLong
by MandeepSinghKohli
1
NATIONALUM – Multi-Year Breakout | Wave 5 in ProgressAluminium Sector Strength + Structural Breakout = Long-Term Bullish Setup National Aluminium (NATIONALUM) continues to show strong momentum, completing a clean Elliott Wave structure with Wave 5 underway on the weekly chart. The stock has broken out of a multi-year resistance structure and is trending strongly with higher highs and higher lows. Price currently at ₹273.15 with weekly closing strength. 📍 Strong Support Zones Support - Description ₹242 – ₹255 - Breakout retest zone & major support ₹200 – ₹175 - Wave 4 demand zone ₹132 – ₹66 - Deep support (unlikely unless full cycle reset) As long as ₹242 / ₹200 / ₹175 holds, bullish continuation expected. 🎯 Upside Targets Target - Significance ₹316 - Minor resistance ₹350 – ₹391 - Wave 3/4 resistance zone ₹455 – ₹473 – ₹521 - Major Wave 5 projected zone ₹600+ - Extended Wave Projection (if commodity super cycle continues) A breakout above ₹291–₹316 could accelerate strong upside. 📈 Technical & Wave Observations 🔹 Completed Wave 4 correction perfectly on structure 🔹 Wave 5 extended pattern forming 🔹 Price maintaining above rising MA supports 🔹 RSI remains strong above 70 – indicates high momentum trend continuation 🔹 Breakout from multi-year channel confirms long-term bullish environment 🧠 My View As long as price is above ₹255 / ₹242, NATIONALUM looks bullish towards: ₹316 → ₹350–₹391 → ₹455 → ₹473 → ₹521 → ₹600+ Long-term investors may hold / accumulate dips. Trend traders can watch breakout above ₹291–₹316 for march to higher targets. ⚠️ Risk Management Below ₹242 – short-term weakness Below ₹200 – trend slows Below ₹132 – long-term structure invalid 💬 What do you think? Will Wave 5 hit ₹455–₹521 soon? Comment “521 Target” if bullish 🔥 Previous Analyses: May 17, 2025 Aug 15, 2024 📌 Disclaimer Educational technical analysis only. Not investment advice.
NSE:NATIONALUMLong
by kacraj
Nifty Holds Support — Is a Fresh Momentum Wave Ahead?The Nifty ended last week almost flat, up 0.6% at 26,186. The index started weak due to profit-booking, FII outflows, and a record-low rupee, but sentiment improved after the RBI cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25%. Adding to the positive tone, India VIX dropped over 11% to 10.315, highlighting a sharp cooling in volatility and a more stable trading environment. ◉ Technical Setup Nifty has once again respected its strong support zone between 25,900 and 26,000, bouncing firmly from this level. This zone is expected to remain a key cushion for the coming week as well. On the upside, the index faces a strong resistance around 26,400–26,500, which will be crucial to watch. A breakout above this could unlock further strength. For now, the market is likely to trade within this range, oscillating between support and resistance until a clear signal emerges. ◉ Key Trigger This Week US Fed Meeting (Dec 9–10) Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut, but mixed signals from Fed officials keep uncertainty high. A hawkish tone could weigh on global sentiment. A dovish stance would likely support global markets, especially India. ◉ Suggested Strategy Investors should adopt a balanced and selective approach: Favour large caps and sectors that stand to benefit from the RBI rate cut, such as financials and autos, Export and IT stocks may continue to draw support from the weaker rupee. For traders, buy-on-dips remains the preferred strategy near strong support levels. Focus on stock-specific setups, maintain moderate position sizes, and stay flexible ahead of the crucial FOMC outcome.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Hindustan Copper – Multi-Year Channel Breakout Hindustan Copper is attempting a breakout on the weekly timeframe after bouncing strongly from the long-term rising channel support. Price is above all major moving averages with volume expansion, indicating renewed bullish momentum. Key Levels: Resistance: ₹386 Support: ₹338 (SL – weekly close) Targets: ₹425 → ₹470 → ₹550 (channel upper zone) Bias remains bullish as long as the stock holds above the mid-channel trendline and ₹338 support. Disclaimer: It is only for educational purpose not a buy or sell recommendation.
NSE:HINDCOPPERLong
by NikunjChauhan