S&P500In the so-called smooth market, functioning the S&P500 has had 14 gaps in the last 16 trading days. A correction seems quite near. The rise of crypto is also an expression of the societal collapse of trust in the monetary control of central banks and their credibility with the public.
Overstretched MACD , how long can this hold? The broader market is barely moving intra-day and the occasional dips are ferociously saved and bought followed by hours of tight range chop action. With most market gains entirely driven by overnight gap ups.
1-VIX
VIXVIX has been forming quite a lot of gaps lately. This chart suggests remaining risk lower into filling the open gaps still, but the pattern is tightening and looks to come to a resolution at any moment between now and in the next week.
This smaller pattern suggests room for a VIX breakout into the low to high.
The longer-term structures continue building for a much larger move still to come in the future.
It’s all part and parcel of a market that continues to live off.
The main message: New highs or not, volatility , it’s coming. At least for a while.
Volatile VIXVIX volatility can be in broader range of 11-25 for long period of time. 2017-2020 saw such range bound movement. 2020 was one of event for ViX . However, 11-12 is the bottom of slope. VIX if falls to this level then caution should be taken in option selling and short term trading positions. ViX can remain in 11-16 for a longer period of time. So predicting top on the basis of VIX looks futile exercise.
VIX ANALYSISA head and shoulder kind of pattern can be seen on the weekly charts of INDIA VIX, suggesting downward trend of INDIA VIX. (OPEN THE CHART FOR DETAILED VIEW)
INDIA VIX is a kind of indicator/index that measures volatility in the markets. Lower/Degrading VIX shows bull run in the markets. Higher/Upgrading VIX suggests bear run in the markets.
According to the weekly charts, a head and shoulder type of pattern can be seen. Head and shoulder pattern suggests downward trend in the market.
This shows that there are high chances of a good bull run in coming weeks. Hence, one can look for buying opportunities.
Remember, flat charts of VIX shows indecisive markets, and flat markets. Hence, one needs to be really stock-specific if there is a flat trend on INDIA VIX charts.
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NIFTY - ZONE OVER ZONEnow nifty has made round shaped pattern with ending diagonal at supply zone and also there is zone over zone. which gives a good confirmation for sell.
from now we will be bullish if it crosses 15450 and below 15450 -- bearish
so a good fall fall is expected in market after completion of ending diagonal.
PCR is 1.24
Indian VIX is @ 19.08
India VixThe volatility index tends to rise usually contra to Nifty. Currently at 21 has caused large red candles in hourly time frame today, further upside could be more lethal. A daily close above 22.50 will move it towards 24 and above that towards 30. A rising VIX suggests intra day moves get vertical with gap openings. Getting caught on the wrong side can cause massive m2m damage. It usually cools off after a correction or at an event - since we are into Q3 results - large cap noes and Budget on Feb 1 are some factors to be kept in mind.
PS: This is not a suggestion to go bearish, just a suggestion to cut down on exposure
NIFTY bounces from 200SMA | Sell pressure after morning sessionNifty - Technical Analysis:
-Nifty gaped up around 11550 owing to positive sentiment and buying observed in midcaps and smallcaps due to the recent SEBI circular.
-We were unable to sustain above 11,550-11,575 which is a little concerning. Even if it were to take a day or two and then get past those levels, we are in bullish territory.
-NSE Nifty settled 24 points or 0.21 per cent lower at 11,440
Market - Driving Factors:
-IT and pharma led the rally as several small and mid-cap stocks registered smart gains today despite the clarifications put out on multi-cap schemes of mutual funds.
-Nifty IT and Realty indices jumped up to 5 percent while the broader market was trading on a choppy note. Shares of HCL Tech and Mphasis jumped 10 percent while those of Larsen & Toubro Infotech, Wipro, PCS and Infosys jumped up to 6 percent.
-Trade cautiously and look at earnings stability, if investing for the long-term in small-caps.
-On the flip side, BSE Telecom, Banks, Finance and Energy failed to perform and ended the day with losses.
Nifty - Outlook for Tuesday, 15th September:
Owing to US elections in November, we can expect volatility ahead. India VIX was up 2% today. People are suggested not to take huge risk in the coming months as we can see a government trigger coming. During the last US elections, before 20-30 days India came up with demonetisation. Due to the current scenario chances of a cheering clause can be expected. Small cap and mid cap rally can be benefitted from and good companies with earnings stability and growth can be cherry picked for good returns.
VIX CRUNCH31ST JAN WAS THE DAY WHEN 1ST CORONA CASE WAS REPORTED IN KERELA AND VIX WAS AROUND 17.4 FROM THERE WE SEE THE RISE UPTO 84 AND REVERSE IT IS ABOUT O ENTER IN PRE CORONA LEVELS
TO THOSE WHO TRADED IN LAST 4-5 MONTHS BE CAUTIOUS THAT VOLATILITY WILL OBSERVE CRUNCH NO MORE DAILY 1-2 % SWING BOTH SIDE ON NITFY AND BANK NIFTY PLUS MANY STOCKS WILL END UP IN RANGE BOUND ZONE SO BE ADAPTIVE WITH YOUR TRADING STYLE AS MARKET CHANGES WE ALSO HAVE TO CHANGE
HAPPY TRADING
Bottom is near ?I have never applied technical analysis on VIX as it gives large wicks. VIX is showing positive divergence on RSI. 19 is the zone from where breakout had happened . So now it should act as support. Positive divergence suggest volatility can spike in short term. I will take confirmation of Vix bottom from Trend, RSI and EMA.
India VIXAs expected it has declined to 50 from its highs. It has very strong support between 47-50. Sustaining below these levels could take it all the way back to 30-20, which in turn would be good for equities as a falling vix gets stability which leads to a calm recovery in terms of both PRICE & TIME, so what is being perceived a quick bear rally could turn out to be a much more stable bounce back attempt. On the other hand, a reversal from here sees resistance near 65 and then a major one at 75. Anything above that would lead to mayhem once again.
Will CBOE VIX cool down ?Negative divergence on RSI indicates that some bit of cool down may take place before resume of upmove in volatility. Break of RSI failure should be observed for confirmation. Option writing can be done who can take high risk and do not want to wait for RSI failure breakout. 80-40 rule of RSI must be remembered while observing CBOE VIX.
NiftyAs per ICHIMOKU study - Monthly, Daily, Hourly, 15mins & 5mins all showing 9800 as crucial. So if we are looking for this Monthly Kumo bottom to hold then we need to be prepared for some consolidation between 9800-8500 also. VIX is at extremes, until it starts cooling be prepared for swings as well if these lows are to be held. However, if again dips lower the next support is at 7900. Nifty P/E currently is at 18 (trailing) & 13 (forward) kind of levels we have not seen since 2008.