Is it a Reversal in Nifty?There are a few things worth noticing on this chart:
⚡A support build around 17800 during Dec2022 and Jan2023, which was broken down at the end of Jan2023
⚡Sellers could not sustain this breakdown and buyers did some absorption at around 17800 in the first half of Feb2023
⚡Market faked the breakdown and sustaining above the budget day resistance 17972 or so
⚡Market managed to break above a down trendline of Dec2022-Jan2023 highs
⚡Market is near historical resistance 18100 (April and September 2022 swing highs)
⚡Next resistance zone 18200-18250
💰Now the million-dollar question, has the market reversed on the upside?
🧐Looking at the price action discussed above, yes it seems true that there are higher chances of reversal. Yet a sustained action above 18250 will confirm this hypothesis
Do not forget to hit the 🚀 button for more such ideas.
Good luck.
Absorption
How Resistance Turns into A Support?Hi
You must have often heard that a resistance once taken out could act as a potential support level. Let us see through this chart how this happens.
Firstly there is a strong resistance zone on the left bottom of the chart, which is also 2019 high. Price took a knee jerk reaction from that level. Many traders would have bought near the highs in a bull market but now they are sitting in a loss. They would be thinking that as soon as the price comes back to their average price or cost, they would exit/sell.
1. Finally after the sharp bear phase, price rallies back to the 2019 highs. Now the above traders/investors would start selling at cost. Many new traders who think that price is at resistance would also start shorting (selling). Those who bought at lower prices would also try to book profits. So there is a flux of sell orders at that level. But wait! is that true?
2. Selling is there but buy orders are just overwhelming. Buyers are absorbing all the supply and managed to hold the reaction of selling. Or you can say that seller were not strong enough or buyers were stronger. If sellers are not strong and buyers are strong then what would happen? Tell me..... Yes you are right, the price would rally higher. And it did.
3. Now all those seller who acted at stage 1 would be shocked and want to book their loss at a better lower price. There are others who still think that this stock is weak and the BO is fake, so they start shorting. Price pulls back to the 2019 highs.
4. Now stage 1 sellers have a better opportunity to cover their loss, so they start buying. Left out buyers also start buying due to better bargain. Pullback buyers enter the market. This large flux of buying orders pushes the price higher and the rally resumes.
5. In this way, the prior resistance turns out to be a support for the stock.
This same psychology repeats at 6&7 where price holds previous resistance as a support.
Imho, Its always beneficial to see any market or chart from psychological point of view rather than merely patterns and signals. The same market psychology is true for how a support once broken, turns into a resistance.
Thanks for reading. I hope it would be useful.
Regards
Swing trade in ASTEC NSE:ASTEC
Buy at 1038-1050 range for an excellent entry.
SL - Exit if stock close below 1035
Reason for the trade: Breakout with a good volume and now fueling the car for the next move.
If you are taking the trade, please keep strict SL.
Disclaimer: Author may enter in trade so take your own decision. This is an trading idea not an trading or Investment advice.
MRF: Wonderful Breakout & Retest, Wyckoff Supply AbsorptionCheck out the price action along with the volume signature in the highlighted zone in the chart. The breakout on slightly higher volume and then the retest on even higher volume was an interesting development. The subsequent price action is a characteristic sign of absorption of supply while the price was congesting. I am long in this stock and would not be surprised with a rally to the levels mentioned in the chart.
NOTE: Even at the cost of sounding repetitive, these are just #NotesToSelf . Am sharing it in the hope that you might find it interesting and may be pick up a clue or two regarding chart reading. These are not meant to be trading recommendations