HINDPETRO, LONGTERM BET, PRICE-ACTION,VOLUME-PROFILE,TRIANGLE 1WDisclaimer -:
1. Long-Term Bets can be solely made from technical analysis if done correctly. Nonetheless this can be used in combination with Fundamental Analysis . So readers feel free to comment fundamental ideas if any, either in support of long or short, both will be highly appreciated.
2. **FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED.
3. Do ask your questions in the comments if any.
Firstly
From 9th May 2016 to 31 July HINDPETRO went up. Then it fell and in between consolidated. It hit (took support ) at the 164 level multiple times (3). The trend line is also hit 3 times at least. So these are strong and valid trend lines which forms the Triangular Pattern. Recently we saw a breakout from the triangle pattern. Then a small and healthy retracement towards the upper trend line and then the up-move was continued.
200, 280 and 330 are important levels for Support and Resistance.
Volume Profile -: can be used to identify potential support and resistance lines. So by using TRADINGVIEW PRO FIXED RANGE VOLUME PROFILE . I tried to identify all the important levels (resistance) while the stock was falling.
2. Moreover when volume of historical price levels is compared to current ones we can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions and enter before the big move happens.
3. Also if we compare the falling volume with rising one, we'll be able to ascertain the strength of the current move and potential resistance levels.
4. If the volume in direction of up-move is way more than the volume of previous downfall then its easy to break the resistance levels and move forward. So in such stocks investing has lesser risk and greater chance of capital appreciation
IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS
1. Current Volume is very high compared to previous volume when the stock was falling. This signifies current region is important and breakout from this region will give a strong up-move. Moreover there has been a breakout from a triangular pattern whose trend lines have been tested at least 3 times which further confirms impending strong up-move.
2. Above 330 level the volume at prices is relatively very low which means there are insignificant or weak resistance levels. That means once breaks out of 330 level we should expect a strong rally with less and weak obstacles(resistance).
3. We need to consider the volume from only 31Jul-17 to 16Mar-20 because that's the time when stock was falling.
DEFINATION
1. POC-: The red line is called Point of Control . This is the price level with max volume i:e price level where max transaction has taken place. In this case, clearly the POC is a very important support level since if prices come back to this level there will be enough buyers available to protect from further falling.
TARGET WITH LOGIC
1. Since the all the time high level, 485, stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can reach the all-time high. Moreover it might even go more than that, but it depends what happens after the breakout.
MY APOLOGIES
I was supposed to post this chart a while before but wasn't able to, still there is plenty of space and chance to enter now with risk management
ENTRY
1. Entry above 280 level at CMP is good enough since 280 was one of the resistance levels. But in this case stop-loss should be placed conservatively at around 208 level because that's the recent low and as well as the POC.
Since it is a long-term bet, placing tight stop-loss is like deliberately inviting failure. So a conservative and wide stop-loss will be better.
2. Another way is to enter after 330 level breakout for those who want extra confirmation.
3. Third and always the best way is position sizing. Enter partially now and add more with confirmation.
*STOP-LOSS should be trailed as per your strategy. One of the best is to trail with Moving Average in 1D timeframe with ATR( Average True Range ) as a buffer.
EXIT
Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-:
1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low)
2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal.
3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit
**I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS ETC.
TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO LIKE AND FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT.
**YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES
**ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.
