29 Apr 2024 - BankNifty hits a new ATH, becomes torch bearer...BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️
We were quite sure BN would be bullish today but honestly did not think we would gain 1223 points ~ 2.54% in total. ICICI Bank had good quarterly results, but the outperformance was unexpected, that really fuelled the rally today.
Can you believe, BN overshadowed NiftyIT, reclaimed the torchbearer status, and then hit a new ATH of 49473.6 today? NiftyIT is almost 13% down from its ATH, whereas BN is looking strong and roaring.
The main reason, Nifty went up 1% was attributed to the outperformance in the banks, otherwise it would have ended the day flat. Honestly, there weren't any good news for Nifty to rally, unlike Banks which had good quarterly results impact.
All 6 candles are in green today and all of them are with long bodies, such a treat to the eyes. Let us wait and watch how the expiry will play out tomorrow. My non-directional algo hit a loss of -83618 INR today, quite expected as the index went directional today.
Algotrading
29 Apr 2024 - Nifty resolves on the upside stance is Bullish nowNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️
Recap from yesterday: "For Monday, we will go short if 22295 is taken out and will go long if 22519 is taken out."
Nifty started with a gap-up, then came down to close the gap. Once we hit the previous close level, magically Nifty50 got real strength and then started climbing. Nifty gained a total of 213 points ~ 0.95% to not only break out from 22159 but to reinstate its bullish position.
We are now very close to the ATH and once we take out that, we can safely remove the double top pattern. The indices are always resolving to the upside and it has been such a deadly journey for the Bears. Seems like they are facing an existential crisis. Bears will go extinct before Tigers in India.
Nifty50 algos today ended the day with losses of -19644 INR.
Day 21 of DayTradingJournalDay 21 of DayTradingJournal:
Full live algo deployed. Algo did very well compared to what I think I'd have done had I taken trades manually. Algo did as expected, taking all the entry, exit, SL, Tgt signals correctly.
Progress: No manual trades today, no FOMO, no front-running the signal, no fear/greed while sitting in front of the system. Had an instance when I was tempted to take a manual trade, but stopped myself from doing it and kept the faith on the algo.
Setback: today, nothing.
Day 20 of DayTradingJournal - LiveAlgoFirstTestDay 20 of DayTradingJournal:
Today I did my first test of the algo that I have been trying to make. I put it live right from the morning and let it take all the trades that comes its way. Surprisingly, the algo did very well. (I think if I did manually, I might not have been so good).
Learnings for today: Keep the faith on the system, it pays well.
Since TV does not allow publishing of live data, I made a video of it to check for later. You can check the live trade of algo on my YT channel at hiren2517 (TV doesn't allow me to paste the link here)
25 Apr 2024– Nifty50 gets a stance upgrade, bullish! 🐂🐂🐂Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow, we wish to maintain the neutral stance and look for bearish opportunities if 22295 is getting broken. If the index moves up, 22519 would be our first level to watch for."
Kotak Bank started the day with cuts of -10% due to the RBI news impact from yesterday. The spillover effect was visible on all Nifty components prompting a gap down open. It was the consensus trade and we were all ready for it.
The first surprise came when we closed the gap by 09.43 even while Kotak was at -10%. The excess trade due to the short-covering bounce was visible between 10.19 to 10.51.
The second surprise came when Nifty started rallying from 22400 levels to 22625 between 12.59 to 14.35. This is the 2nd expiry in which Nifty has gone ballistic. I am not sure if it was SL hunting, but it messed up my Algo trades and had to close at a loss of Rs43092 on Nifty.
The 321pts intraday rally has ensured N50 gets a stance upgrade to Bullish with the next target being the ATH. If it takes out the ATH, then we can safely remove the double top pattern.
24 Apr 2024– Neutral and Out of steam, what is next? Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and look for bullish opportunities as soon as it reaches for the 22519 levels."
Another flat day, but the options premiums were not behaving as usual. The blame may be on VIX as the premiums were dead low that even a small 50+ points move created a huge skew between the Put and Call prices. India vix staying @ 10.2 levels is not a good sign for professional options traders as a small move will upset the premiums.
A better alternative is you use spreads like credit/debit spreads - buy a strike, sell strike+1 etc, so that the premiums move in tandem and the volatility contraction may not impact that much. But I assume most of the Algos may not have spreads as the core strategy, to begin with.
For tomorrow, we wish to maintain the neutral stance and look for bearish opportunities if 22295 is getting broken. If the index moves up, 22519 would be our first level to watch for.
Algos ended up gaining Rs5496 today.
3 Apr 24 Nifty50, VIX collapsing 20% means Advantage Bulls!Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: "The 63mts time frame is not bullish yet, but we are not bearish now. The best we can think of right now is to go neutral. If we fall back below 22295 tomorrow, we might even go short."
Nifty was perfectly neutral today after the opening candle. Since RELIANCE declared its quarterly results yesterday, we expected profit bookings on that counter. The mega gap-up and then cooling off on N50 was much attributed to RELIANCE's price action. Once N50 found support at yesterday's close, it decoupled itself from both RELIANCE and HDFCBANK price action. N50 was in green even when both the stocks were in red, that is not something we see usually.
India VIX crashing almost 20% was another shocker for the Bears. Whenever we have dips, the Bears are unable to really punch a way through. The markets come back stronger than before and usually hit a newer top. A crashing VIX is advantage Bulls as it shows the uncertainty falling. For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and look for bullish opportunities as soon as it reaches for the 22519 levels.
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Nifty50 algos ended the day with profits of Rs12729 mostly due to the narrow range maintained by the index today.
23 Apr 24 - BankNifty, deadly opening candle & then flat dayBankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
BN had a flat day too but not after a deadly looking opening candle. If you look at the charts, it is more or less a replica of what happened yesterday. BN shows it is taking a breather after the recent run.
Not falling off from the current levels is an advantage Bulls. Just like we mentioned yesterday, 48103 is an interim resistance, but not a strong one. To take out the ATH, all we need is a slight push.
BankNifty Algos ended the day with gains of Rs16071, but not after taking some MTM losses in the earlier part of the day. Once BN started trading flat, the profits started coming in.
22 Apr - Nifty50 gets a stance change, not bearish - but neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: "I strongly think it was an intense short covering that fueled this rally and hence does not wish to alter my bearish stance. If we get past 22295 on Monday or Tuesday, I would change the stance to neutral."
Nifty snaps out of bearishness by breaking the 22295 resistance. Even though we had an unusual gap-up, we ended up almost closing it by 09.47. However, the Bears were not able to drive down the prices further indicating a lack of conviction.
Nifty spent considerable time at the 22295 zone, visible from the blue encircled region before breaking out at 14.39. Just think about it, N50 came from 21777 to 22375 today in just 2 sessions, close to 600 points.
The 63mts time frame is not bullish yet, but we are not bearish now. The best we can think of right now is to go neutral. If we fall back below 22295 tomorrow, we might even go short. 22519 would be an interim resistance on the upside above which we would like to go long.
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Algo trading - ended up losing 6003 on N50 algo trades today.
19 Apr 2024 BankNifty all 6 candles in GREEN, 1093pts rallyBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
BankNifty was more dramatic versus N50, it went ahead and rallied 1093pts ~ 2.35% and ended up taking out the crucial resistance of 47465. The momentum favors a stance change to neutral, but I would like to wait for one more day for confirmation.
The lowest point of the day was hit in the opening candle and the highest point in the last candle - so much drama. And never in the rally today there was an attempt to break the upward direction. Unlike N50, hard to believe that it was short covering here - it looks like more of a long build-up.
Again luckily did not switch on the Algos today, or else would have lost approximately 60k. 46284 support level was added today, but BN took support at 46592 levels itself. All 6 candles were in GREEN today - unbelievable momentum.
19 Apr 2024– Nifty Unseen 402pts momentum, not bullish thoughNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
Recap from yesterday: On the higher TF, we wish to maintain the bearish stance even though we did not get a 63mts closing candle below 22051. I am hoping that we may get one in the forenoon session tomorrow.
Unseen momentum on Nifty50 today, we woke up to the bad news that Israel has launched counter strike on Iran, and Gifty (Global Nifty futures) were trading 400 points lower. The news and Twitter feed were not looking good and immediately I felt it was wise not to run my non-directional algo. That proved to be the right decision as my backtests showed losses of 97000 if I had run the Algo.
Nifty opened below the support of 21913, hit an intraday low of 21777, and then started recovering. Between 11.27 to 12.11, N50 spent its time near the 21913 SR zone. Once it broke the resistance, it immediately went to the next SR of 22051. Between 12.51 to 13.47, N50 spent its time at 22051 before breaking out. N50 went ahead and hit an intraday high of 22179 before cooling off to close at 22149.
When was the last time you saw N50 rally 402pts that too from poor global macros? I strongly think it was an intense short covering that fueled this rally and hence does not wish to alter my bearish stance. If we get past 22295 on Monday or Tuesday, I would change the stance to neutral.
18 Apr Nifty –13.23 Candle wipes out the entire April ProfitsNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
Recap from yesterday: "For bearish continuation, we need to take out the 22051, whereas for Neutral stance shift, we need to take out 22295."
We did take out the 22051 support today on the 4mts TF but not before some drama. Initially Nifty was showing strong upside potential knocking the 22295 resistance level. By 12.15, I almost thought we might have to go neutral and kiss good bye to the new Bears.
Fortunately, the 22295 resistance held its ground and proved a safe level for the Bears. Coming to the main event of the day - see the encircled portion. The 13.23 and 13.27 candles. Nifty fell 213 points in 8 minutes (might be a new record). And since we had an expiry today, what it actually did was mess up the premiums of straddles. I lost 1.38L in Nifty today due to this misadventure.
By 14.55 we lost the 22051 support and N50 went on to test 21961. The next major support comes at 21913.
On the higher TF, we wish to maintain the bearish stance even though we did not get a 63mts closing candle below 22051. I am hoping that we may get one in the forenoon session tomorrow. The last 3 candles were strong RED and the bodies fit right between the 22295 and 22051 SR zones.
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The losses in Algo trades were 1.38L, mostly due to slippages between 13.23 to 13.28. However smartly you set the programs, the orders will not fire as fast as the underlying moves. The delay is enough to get mispricings and slippages. Quite relieved to have saved close to 70k from the max loss value.
15 Apr 2024–22295 support is taken out, I am short ⬇️ Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
Recap from yesterday: "On the higher time frame, we have a double top formation (M pattern). To negate the pattern we would have to take out the ATH, otherwise, it looks like a nice setup to go bearish. 22519 is a good interim support level, the main support comes only at 22295."
I personally did not punch any manual or non-directional Algo trades today. The only trades I took were the directional trend strategy. Since 22295 support is broken, my view has changed from neutral to bearish. If Nifty can give a close above 22295 then I might roll back my stance to neutral again.
The reason I did not place orders today was due to the assumption that the markets may behave irrationally today. VIX was very low, so a surge could offset the premiums in such a way that it could create unwanted slippage. Well, after backtesting with today's data, I felt it was a stupid idea to have waited on the sidelines and not played.
The M pattern assumes more meaning now on the 63mts TF. Ideally, we need one more red candle below 22295 for some bearish safety. 22051 is the next support level which could be taken out pretty easily if the shorts pick up momentum. I hope the BTFD takes some rest for few days so that the Bears can do their thing.
2 Apr– Nifty50 - 4 RED Candles, first real sign of reversal?Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️️
Recap from yesterday: "As I write this article, SPX, NDQ, and DJI are down over 1.1%. A spillover effect is definite but because we have a holiday tomorrow, we might have another day of US stock market action left to react."
The first real sign of a breakdown. US CPI came in hot due to which the markets reacted pretty badly on Wednesday. Thursday the markets gained back some points, but I strongly think the fall in our markets had more to do with the "Iran - Israel" tensions than inflation.
The reason I am saying that is because after the gap-down open, we made a swing low but then recovered nicely from 09.43 to 12.07. From 12.07 to close we lost 192 points ~ 0.85%. We changed the stance from Bullish to Neutral as soon as 22689 levels were breached. Ideally, we should have changed the status to bearish as the afternoon momentum was quite good. The only reason we did not do that was to check if the reaction was a little too much, if we continue to maintain the same momentum on Monday - we will look out for bearish opportunities.
On the higher time frame, we have a double top formation (M pattern). To negate the pattern we would have to take out the ATH, otherwise, it looks like a nice setup to go bearish. 22519 is a good interim support level, the main support comes only at 22295.
I started Algo trading on Nifty50 today and ended the day with a gain of Rs9465. Exited prematurely at 09.44 as soon as the markets started to crack.
12 Apr - BankNifty was not that bearish, but a HH is formed.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️️
BankNifty did not fall as much as Nifty50 today, we opened -244pts as gap-down, and the first candle itself was a strong green candle which gave the impression that the Bears may lose control.
The follow-up action was good enough and we retested the swing low by 09.47 giving some hope, but again the markets started recovering till 12.11. I was posting in our trader's chat group that if we stay like this the short covering will come in and we may end up going up and that is exactly when the 2nd round of selling came in. In the second leg, we lost another 311 points ~ 0.64%.
On the 63mts TF, BankNifty ended up creating the higher high. To know if the bullish trend is at threat or not - we should take out the support of 47465 soon, but that is around 1000pts away. We would like to start Monday with a neutral stance and then take it up from there.
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BankNifty Algo trades ended with a gain of Rs7735. Prematurely exited at 09.44 sensing the markets were beginning to crack.
10 Apr - The body of candles are getting shorter, end of bulls ?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Banknifty was looking strong right from the start. Unlike Nifty, BN did not have a huge gap up, but the rising trend was clear and strong. The reason it was strong was because the moves were not wild swings but slow & steady.
If you look at the 63mts candlesticks, you can notice the body becoming smaller. Usually, it is a sign of tiredness by the bulls as we are in an uptrend. We will get to know that on Friday, we wish to maintain our bullish stance till then.
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Algo Trading
Our Algos ended the day with a gain of Rs33351. I did not wait out the entire session and closed out the trades in advance expecting a wild move due to the US CPI news event.
09 Apr - BankNifty is structurally more Bullish than Nifty50BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
BankNifty does an inverted V pattern today due to which the Algos went negative. Was quite happy that the losses were contained in the end, but what I learned is that sharp rises & falls take out the stop losses at both ends. And what is the end result? We are treading nowhere.
On the higher timeframe, BN looks more bullish than Nifty. Just like we discussed yesterday, only if we take a pause and retrace a few points - we can mark the higher high. Since the 11th is a holiday due to Ramadan, both Nifty and BankNifty will have the expiry tomorrow.
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Algo Trading
The trades ended today with a loss of -18294. There is no way the Algos can defend a V or an inverted V shape. The best I could do was firefight the same manually, but I decided otherwise.
08 Apr 2024 - BankNifty also gets a new HIGH, what a RUNBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
BankNifty also takes out the recent swing high and a new ATH is in place ~ 48716 @ 13.23. Over the next 2 candles, it lost 217pts ~ 0.45%. The final close was with a nominal gain of 88pts ~ 0.18%.
What a run it has been by BN, we have officially it a new higher-high, but it has not finished yet. Only when we retrace a few points, we can mark the new peak. Hope the analysis of the recent days has benefited you in the right direction.
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Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 29172. Most of the credits go to BankNifty which stayed in a narrow range.
04 Apr - BN - The opening RED candle, RBI MPC meet will decode..BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
The beauty of BankNifty today was that its fall did not go below yesterday’s close. Yes, the fall was intense, but the recovery was more elegant - a steady rise showing immense Bull strength.
And if you read today’s report along with what we wrote yesterday, you might have become a true fan of the Bulls. A true jump above the 47465 support shows the index is really gearing up for its breakout. Just take a look at HDFC Bank’s chart, the recovery from the recent lows has been really amazing. And when the Elephant is in the mood to run, there is nothing the smaller animals can really do.
We wish to start the day tomorrow on the bullish side. The RBI MPC meeting will be closely watched and I would really like to know why we had a strong opening RED hourly candle. There might be something that they know that we dont, let us find that out tomorrow.
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Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with losses of Rs9757. I had to manually override and square off the trades to limit the losses. In Hindsight, that proved like a good decision.
BN 03 Apr - The bulls are ready to charge, will N50 spoil it?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
BankNifty also defended its current levels very beautifully today. The open was pretty bad as we dropped to 47278 levels by 09.27. If you observe the charts you can quickly understand that it was well below the support and that should have triggered a further fall if the Bears had an upper hand. Unfortunately, the trend is still in favor of the Bulls as the recovery was intense. A look at the 10.11 candle that cut through the 47465 resistance will give all the proof you require. BN ended up recovering 398 points from the lows and unlike Nifty we closed near the highs of the day.
If you ask me, the trend is still favoring the bulls 5 out of the 6 candles today are in GREEN with the odd RED candle being a doji. It might be very unfortunate if Nifty50 has plans to reverse now as BN looks quite ready to break out. We all know how much energy will unwind when N50 and BN are aligned in the same direction. For the last 3 sessions, we have both of the indices upward looking but with no followthrough action. Let us hope tomorrow is that day wherein we expect a directional move.
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Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs44262, this is the 3rd consecutive day where I had to exit the trades prematurely as the hourly profit targets were hit.
BankNifty 01 Apr- stance revised to bullish as 47465 brokenBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
BankNifty does what was pending for quite a long time i.e break above the 47465 resistance. Despite the sharp correction in the last 45 minutes of the previous working day, BN managed to recoup the losses and close much higher than the swing high. We took out the resistance in the opening candle itself after that there were 2 to 3 attempts to check if the support was strong enough. In the last 55mts we had a smooth surge which gave the impression that the support is here to stay.
If we connect the dots from the lows of 12th Feb, it looks like a new higher high in the making. If it does go there, it will be a treat to watch as BankNifty has been lagging behind Nifty for quite a long time now. We wish to change our stance from neutral to bullish as long as 47465 support is held.
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Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 41546 as I prematurely closed the trades at 11.22 today.
27 Mar ’24 — BankNifty ends flat, but no directional intent yetBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
BankNifty also started the day with a gap up and then an immediate rise to the 46920 levels. This did not sustain as we gradually fell back to 46690 levels between 10.35 and 15.07. Surprisingly we had a 284pts rally in 15 minutes right back to the 46920 zone. The final close at 46785 looked pretty decent with the major gains coming from HDFCBK, AXIS, and KOTAK. For a brief period, it was interesting to see ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank going the opposite way thanks to the year-end rebalancing.
4mts chart
On the higher time frame, BN looks flat, I am totally unable to make out the next direction with the current chart pattern. What was really lacking for the last 3 months was consensus in choosing the direction, among Nifty50, BankNifty and NiftyIT. NiftyIT is so beaten that a quick recovery is ruled out. Only if BN aligns with Nifty50 we can have a breakout.
63mts chart
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Algo Trading
Due to a production key error, I was not able to set up the execution on AlgoTest today - hence no trades.