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22 Mar ’24 — BankNifty holds ground, when NiftyIT was crashingBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty stays in the neutral zone for yet another day. Even when N50 made its 1.36%, BN went up only by 0.9%. NiftyIT was tanking on one side, but BN was holding its ground from falling. I am seriously confused about whether Nifty or BankNifty has the lower beta. Even the profit booking in the last 40mts did not have a wild impact on BN but it might have taken the profits out of N50 straddlers. 4mts chart We are almost midway between the nearest support & resistance. The slope of the 200 EMA will prove the point that we are neutral, just check its slope - it's almost parallel to the X-axis. This was the major reason why I never went bearish even though we fell 2000+ points from the ATH. We continue to maintain our neutral stance for Tuesday and would like to build fresh positions based on the price action. 63mts chart — Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of 7029 rupees, thanks to the swing from Nifty50. So for my current month, the Nifty Algos are in loss whereas BN is in good profits. This takes me back to the earlier question, which one has the lower beta?
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
20 Mar ’24 — BankNifty fallen for 9 Days - yet I am not bearishBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Once again BN proved to be resilient to the bearish attack. We briefly broke the bearish channel top line, hit a new intraday low of 45828, and then reversed from there. The reversal was a whopping 828pts ~ 1.81% on what we could call a bear market killer. Whatever green candles we had in that recovery were strong and had good depth. The only reason N50 had that dramatic reversal was due to BankNifty. 4mts chart Most of the analysts are bearish on BN, but I am still not convinced. Yes, we had a drop of 2317 points ~ 4.81% overall but the downside moves are not convincing enough. Primarily because the momentum is still not there, compare it with N50 and you will get the variance. All BN has to do is enter the bearish channel and then we can go short with a higher conviction. Meanwhile, I modified the bearish channel bottom line (purple color line), connected the recent price actions and finally, it is looking parallel to the top line (blue) as well. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 14970 points. Sensing the situation getting a bit volatile, I manually squared off the positions at 09.38 itself.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
2
19 Mar ’24 — BankNifty has another 300pts to go Bearish 🐻🐻🐻BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ The level of reluctance BankNifty shows to crack is really intense. Usually, Banks react badly to any situation. We now have a peculiar case wherein Nifty has been downward facing for the last 3 consecutive sessions whereas BankNifty has stayed neutral. BankNifty has been losing points steadily, eg: it lost 191pts today but the bearish intent is not there. And you know pretty well we cannot change the status to bearish unless the “Bears” actually push down the index with momentum. We would need a breach of support or a re-entry to the bearish channel for that. 4mts chart Even though BN lost a few points today, it was nothing comparable to Nifty (-1.08%) and NiftyIT (-2.9%). None of the Nifty subsectors were in Green today. The main sector fighting for the bulls was the Financials. My eyes were totally glued on ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank today, despite N50 falling both these banks held their ground pretty strongly. In many instances, both were trading against the current. On the higher time frame, BN has less than 300pts to enter the bearish channel. Tomorrow being the weekly expiry, we are pinning the hopes for a classic bear attack. We would prefer to start the day neutral and go short only if the conditions are met. A rising VIX would be the 2nd clue we might be watching for. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs27216. I wound up the trades at 12.48 as almost 95% of the target was done and did not want to lose out to a possible directional trend.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
18 Mar ’24 — BankNifty tests its feet below the bearish channelBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty had to fall 400pts to enter the bearish channel. Well, it did not happen today but we had an interesting candle at 11.15, for a brief period BN dips into the bearish channel and then pulls out. Much like testing how deep the water is before taking the jump. The shorts were strong then and the recovery would have prompted the short covering that took BN up 488pts ~ 1.06% above the high of the 11.15 candle. 4mts chart BN is still neutral as the momentum is missing on the bearish side. Just take a look at the 10.18 (-248pts) and 11.21 (+405pts) 63mts candle. Something tells me the momentum should favor the bulls if we have some consensus. As the CALL shorters are weak, we would need the big boys to enter to really move the needle. FII selling is not really helping. Agreed that NiftyIT tanked today, but the fear factor is still missing on the large caps. If you watch the Nifty sub-sectors you can see how quickly the market breadth changes from GREEN to RED and then back to GREEN. Markets are really on the edge and all it requires is a small push. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of Rs3430. The charges and the transaction costs were more than the losses as the Algos did quite a lot of adjustments today.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
14 Mar ’24 — BankNifty's price action overshadowed by NiftyITBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Banks were performing as expected today, even though we had a neutral view we ended up losing 0.41% for the day. The stance for tomorrow also continues to be neutral as BN did not breach support or resistance today. The starting candle was perfect as per the script, from there we rose 666pts ~ 1.43% to reach the HOD of 47231 by 11.43. The staling was obvious as there were no special triggers to take up even near the resistance level of 47465. 4mts chart The fall of 536pts ~ 1.14% from the day’s high also made perfect sense. Unfortunately, Nifty50 does not convey the real truth that happened with the banks as that index was overshadowed by stocks like Adani and NiftyIT components. On the 63mts time frame, the lower high formation looks much better than N50. Our stance continues to be neutral and would go short if we enter the bearish channel and would go long if the 47465 resistance is breached. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs21565. Even though we had a quick dip in profits by 10.37, the system recovered and closed in green.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
13 Mar ’24 — BankNifty stays cool today unlike N50 that broke 2.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BN was calm as a cucumber, on one side the Nifty50 heavyweights were tanking but BN kept its cool. Usually, Banks are the first to react to any news related to “froth”, “valuation” etc. Mainly because the valuation, loan against shares, etc all depend on the underwriters and financial institutions that did the due diligence. When the markets are going up, nobody is really worried. But when the stocks start crashing, the valuations get impacted and people start getting margin calls. When this situation is combined with a contracting money supply - businesses could face restrictions in raising new capital. 4mts chart The only reason I can think of why the Banks did not fall today would be due to the expiry aspect. If that is the case, we should be seeing the FOMO effect in tomorrow’s morning session. Since BN held its ground, the algo trades all performed exceptionally well, and the heightened volatility improved the option selling margins. From the recent top of 48161, BN is falling, but yet to make a lower low or lower high. Unless the 2nd leg starts, we wouldn't know with clarity what it has in mind. To go bearish, we need to fall below 46176 another 800pts away. If both BN and N50 are facing the same direction - then we can expect the big boys to enter the shorting arena. If we are to get a relief rally or retracement, it should be driven by the banks - because they are still the strongest sub-sector in Nifty. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 14380.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
12 Mar ’24 — BankNifty Algo Trades almost killed me today.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ The 10.43 candle was more profound on BankNifty, we had a drop of 656pts ~ 1.38% in that single candle. We had a positive swing of 612pts ~ 1.3% between 09.27 to 09.59 and then a negative reaction of 931pts ~ 1.95% between 09.59 to 10.47. If these 2 swings did not take out your stop loss - then I don't know what will. Since we run algo trades, the entire positions went into a tailspin showing a huge MTM loss. Miraculously, the system recovered and ended the day with a reduced loss. If this same move happened on a Wednesday or Thursday, then the losses would have been 10x of what we had today. 4mts chart On the higher time frame, the stance continues to be neutral as BN was unable to take out the 47465 resistance today. The 10.18 candle showed some bearish intent, but it did not get any follow-through action. The current market texture is weak hands holding CE short positions. So if we break the resistance tomorrow either by a gap-up or via 1hr trading, then the short covering will result in further momentum. This market structure is really pissing off some serious traders too, mostly because overnight positions are not bringing the kind of benefit it should. The premiums for which they are sold do not cover the risks taken. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of 15896. The positions went into deep RED during the 10.43 candle, but with time the positions started recovering.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
11 Mar ’24 — BankNifty breaks 47465, next SR 1000 points lowerBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ We have a change in stance on BN today, As soon we had a closing below 47465 we changed the stance from bullish to neutral. We fell 693pts ~ 1.45% today and the structure was pretty negative. BN never really tried to retrace the fall today, just had 1 minor rejection at the support at 11.23, but yielded by 11.55. The ease with which the support got broken got me thinking, what was the real bad news today? I remember seeing the Japan Nikkei trading with cuts of -2.3%. But other than that, I really dont remember reading any other bad news. 4mts chart On the higher time frame, notice the depth of the RED candles till the support was broken. The single GREEN candle of 6th Mar 09.15 has been negated. Since we broke the support of 47465, the stance is now neutral. For tomorrow we wish to start with non-directional trades on BankNifty and go long if the 47465 resistance gets broken. To go short, BN will have to re-enter the bearish channel and that is like 1000pts away. If we were to fall that many points in a day, we are quite sure Nifty50 will also fall equivalently and most likely go bearish as well. Honestly, why would markets fall that much, what is the reason? 63mts chart — Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 20165. Manually squared off the trades at 14.21 just when the markets started to get volatile.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
06 Mar ’24 — Nobody believed us when we said Banks are bullish..BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ The major move in Banknifty in the opening hour itself. See the encircled region and see how the 47465 support came into play. Support and resistance have the highest weightage in my technical indicators arsenal. If you have been reading my reports - you may agree to it without doubt. The only thing is, you need to draw the horizontal lines carefully. 4mts chart Two things happened when BN rallied 713pts ~ 1.5% in the opening hours. Firstly it gave so much of positive momentum to Nifty50 that even a laggard like NiftyIT had to reverse course and align with the GREENs. Secondly, it threw our algo positions under the bus. The swift movement ensured whatever MTM loss the positions went into, we were sure that the end was never going to be in green. Not quite sure if we will take out the ATH tomorrow, but seems like we are going to have another green day tomorrow. As long as the support of 47465 is respected, the bulls are going to have a nice time. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of 19656. The opening hour casting its spell, the MTM loss was almost 65710 at a point, so we are quite thankful for the wonderful recovery we had post that trauma.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
05 Mar ’24 — BankNifty Algos gave 50% profit in opening hour!BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BankNifty gets a status change today to bullish. Look at the 12.47 candle that took out the resistance of 47465. Even the next candle formed was strongly bullish. We are now at a stage where BankNifty is strongly bullish and Nifty is showing some weakness due to the tech sector. If Nifty starts falling, there is no way BankNifty can remain in green, although it has happened many times in the past. Over the last many months, the IT sector has gained more weightage on Nifty50, I started noticing this after the inclusion of LTIM in the index. 4mts chart On the higher timeframe, BankNifty managed to get 2 63mts candles above the resistance line. Our stance change came right after the 12.24 candle as the signs were pretty clear. On a normal day, a resistance break usually signifies a much more powerful breakout rally. We are quite not sure whether we will get that tomorrow as US markets are trading in deep RED. If BN falls below 47465 or opens gap-down below this support level we will revert to a neutral stance. And since it is the weekly expiry tomorrow - we expect the premiums to pick up if that happens. As it stands the premiums of the OTM are not good enough for some serious speculation. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 17997 rupees. Again pulled the plug early today i.e. at 10.24. As per my backtests the max possible gain intraday is Rs36000 and since we hit 50% of that in the opening hour - decided to exit prematurely.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
04 Mar ’24 — BankNifty still has to overcome the 47465 resistancBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty is still stuck at the 47465 resistance level and this according to me was the primary reason why even Nifty could not find the upward thrust. There were 4 specific instances when BN tried to break the resistance and move up but all of them got rejected. This does not really mean that the Bulls are tired or out of steam, it is just that they are unable to win the hand. 4mts chart By this time, we all know what is going to happen next - A gap-up above the resistance line and then boom-boom. The gap-up will change the dynamics in the Bull’s favor and the short covering will give it a bit more thrust. The moment that happens, we will be able to change the stance from neutral to bullish. This would also mean Nifty50 would be scaling new heights. What is totally unpredictable is NiftyIT, playing hard to get. Seems like the fight to be the Nifty’s torch bearer is happening between IT and Banks. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 27037. We manually closed the day @ 11.15 as the MTM felt decent enough for the 2hrs of trade. We will only get to know if it was the right decision or not when we run the backtest. I am a registered financial advisor & would be happy to assist with your queries or doubts. If privacy is required, you can DM me too.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
01 Mar ’24 — BankNifty gets an upgrade - from Bearish to NeutralBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty also gets a stance change today i.e. from bearish to neutral. All that is pending is to take out the 47465 resistance to go bullish. Most likely that should happen tomorrow and we are eagerly waiting to trade on another Saturday. BN closed the day with a gain of 1166 points ~ 2.53%. But unlike Nifty, BN is not near its ATH. We have some more distance to cover. 4mts chart Look at the number of green candles in the higher time frame. 11 consecutive 63mts candles i.e. 693 hours of unchecked bull run. We are very sure if the same had happened yesterday - a lot of option traders would have tripled their capital. Expiries usually attract hero-zero traders and most of them prefer to load on BankNifty CEs and PEs. BN is safely out of the bearish channel and that is why the stance has been revised from bearish to neutral. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of Rs39177. It was on the expected lines as the algo is based on option selling and for strong directional move days like today - it will run into deep cuts. In a way, we are happy that the loss was not 63891. I am a registered financial advisor & would be happy to assist with your queries or doubts. If privacy is required, you can DM me too.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
29 Feb ’24 BankNifty still looks bearish until the resistance...BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ BankNifty ended the day in GREEN, up 157pts, but we are still bearish as the resistance line was not taken out (bearish trend line). Also, we are in the bearish channel, the longer we stay in it - the stronger the BEARS grows. 3 candles between 09.59 to 10.07 gave away 498pts ~ 1.08%. And we really thought, it could be the beginning of a longer bear attack. Well, our short call for today did not work out as planned - we were able to cover up some losses as the expiry trades gave outsized premiums due to a spike in IV. The last 30 minutes added 394pts ~ 0.86pts. 4mts chart A part of the spike in volume could be attributed to the monthly rebalancing. That also means a portion of the price action could be manipulated as well. We will get to know in detail during the opening hours tomorrow. We wish to maintain the bearish stance as long as the sloping blue resistance is not taken out. To go bullish, BN has to rally all the way up above the double-top pattern. 63mts chart Algo Trading Due to the monthly expiry, I did not have spare funds to deploy for Algo trades, instead, I put them on the forward test mode. It showed a profit of 19858 I am a registered financial advisor & would be happy to be of assistance to you. DM me for more details.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
21 Feb ’24 — BankNifty is bullish as long as its > 46886 ⬆️⬆️⬆️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Although BankNifty created a double top (M pattern) on the 4 mts time frame today, the stance is still bullish. The reason we did not change the stance for BN even though we downgraded N50 was that BN did not even test the support level today. Despite the selling pressure on all other counters, the Banks did not attempt to re-enter the bearish channel nor break the trendline. Ideally, it had to fall below 46833 to go into a bearish zone and today’s low was 46886. We know a 50pts margin is not that adequate, but when we switch to a higher time frame chart - you may agree with us. 4mts chart If you look at the chart below, even after adjacent RED candles, BN is still above the blue trend line. Tomorrow’s opening 63 minutes is very crucial as the major reason why BN did not participate in the fall today could be attributed to expiry day trades. When the selling came, the volumes of the top 4 banks had spiked accidentally revealing that it could be the start of something big. We guess the torch-bearer status of BankNifty has to be kept on the back burner as NiftyIT is calling the shots now. February is proving to be equally volatile as January 2024. Both the indices are now hunting for the stop losses and it seems like the ATM non-directional traders are going through another drawdown phase. For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a bullish bias and not get into any aggressive bets. Will wait for the first 63mts candle to appear and then take things from there. If we stay below the blue trend line - the status would be changed to neutral immediately. 63mts chart — Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with gains of 11395. We booked the profits early i.e. by 11.34. Would have to backtest and find out tomorrow if our decision to prematurely exit was worth it or not. Yesterday also we exited prematurely and the backtests proved we made the right choice.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
21 Feb ’24 — First Real Threat for Bulls Today - Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “On the 63mts TF, N50 is still looking strong — we would keep our first support level(weak) at 22051 and the main support at 21913.” 4mts chart Bulls were roaring and seemed like the entire territory was under their control and then suddenly from nowhere, we got a flash crash. Nifty50 hits a new ATH of 22249 and then falls 252 points ~ 1.13%. Yesterday we talked about the shallow support at 22051, it was interesting to see the 14.39 RED candle just did not respect that level and fell aggressively. After hitting a low of 21997 we had a pullback of 101 points, but that got sold into. The closing was strongly in favor of the Bears. Technically Nify50 has just fallen 141 points ~ 0.64% and even after that, it is still bullish on the higher timeframes. We need to really find out what was the reason we had a flash crash today - it did not feel like a profit-booking stunt. It appeared more like a news/event released to a selected few participants. Since Nifty50 fell below our support line, we had to reverse the stance back to neutral. In case Nifty50 climbs back up tomorrow and hits a new ATH, today’s move will just appear as a blip, and the stance will go back to bullish. On the higher timeframe, Nifty is below the 22051 resistance and above the strong support of 21913. If the Bears are planning for another attack tomorrow just like the one we had today - then we strongly feel that the 21913 level should be tested and even broken. Ideally, the opening 1st & 2nd candles will give away the directional trend. Interestingly, BankNifty did not participate in the downward trend today, most likely it may be attributed to the expiry and the aggressive positions taken by the smart money. Anyway, we will get to know by tomorrow if the Bears are back or not. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
20 Feb ’24 — Another milestone, 22000 conquered - Nifty50 flyingNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “On the 63 mts time frame, Nifty looks strong and pumped up. We continue to hold on to our bullish stance, if BN or IT index joins N50 — the build-up in momentum will be a treat to watch.” 4mts chart Exciting times as Nifty50 has conquered a new milestone “22000” and BankNifty just turned bullish today. At present, both N50 and BN are facing northwards and that usually is a sign of further momentum build-up. Having said that, SPX and NDQ are trading negatively in the US with losses of 0.84 & 1.39% respectively. FII sell value for today is 1335 crores and the other European markets are trading mostly in RED or flat. So we are in a unique position where Indian markets are looking optimistic and roaring to go whereas global markets are a bit subdued. Unusually high inflows of SIP via domestic mutual fund AMCs are the primary reason we are staying afloat. Even after so much money making its way to the financial markets, we are in no way close to the bank's fixed deposit volume & volume growth. One thing we are not sure about is whether this money inflow is due to the blind trust in the current Govt’s fiscal policies, reforms, and the certainty to return to power. Or is this a structural change and India is truly becoming a financial powerhouse? If you look at the price action today by N50, we had a RED opening candle which was bought into by 10.15 and then we had one more round of selling between 13.31 to 13.59. But what stood out was the surge of 78 points in the last 30 minutes. It took out yesterday’s swing high and created the new ATH record. On the 63mts TF, N50 is still looking strong - we would keep our first support level(weak) at 22051 and the main support at 21913. With 2 days to go, will N50 take out the 22500 levels? Reply with your comments below. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
4
19 Feb ’24 — BankNifty is still not bullish, 47016 has to break.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Even though the 4mts chart looks bullish as the moving averages have a positive slope, the reality is quite different. BankNifty has not managed to find the fire to go “BOOM BOOM”, it is totally lazy and lethargic at its current levels. Today we ended up gaining 150 points ~ 0.32% but a few of the major banks like HDFC Bank, Kotak, and AXIS were not that excited. ICICI on the other hand was totally on another orbit today. If you look at the chart below you can see the fear of heights (blue markers). The best way to get through is with a mega gap-up, which will force the weak hands to run for cover. 4mts chart Make no mistake, BN has rallied 2094 points ~ 4.69% from the recent swing low. But visually that rally is not bullish yet, that is because the time factor is at play. BN is very near the top of the bearish channel. A break above 47016 and then 47465 will give it sufficient momentum to surge through. The biggest factor that is holding up is HDFC Bank which has fallen after its results. We guess the bulls are waiting for HDFCBK to regain its footing so that the index itself can break free. The only way Nifty can get past 22500 is with the help of BankNifty. We do not remember the last time where Nifty50 kept making new highs without the support of BN. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs3793.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
16 Feb ’24 — BankNifty will have to support N50 next week for ⬆️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ The move BankNifty made did not correlate with Nifty50 today. BN’s gap-up was sold into and then we recovered once the gap was closed. Yes, there was no selling pressure which was common to both. The straddles on BN were progressing better than expected when we had a quick surge and an equivalent fall between 13.31 and 14.11. We assume it may be connected with a news/event that broke about Paytm & selection of any of the banks for its payment settlements. 4mts chart On the higher timeframe, you can notice how BN is making progress to its next resistance level of 47465. Since it is inside a descending (but not parallel) channel, it need not even break the resistance for a stance revision to bullish. All it has to do is take out the 47016 levels soon and break the upper end of the channel. Since Nifty50 has made its intention clear to go long, BankNifty willingly or not would have to support that cause. We wish to maintain a neutral stance till then and go bullish as and when the conditions specified are fulfilled. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of 3835 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
14 Feb ’24 — BankNifty takes out the resistance and goes neutralBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty does the impossible today, the reason we are saying this is because, despite a UP day yesterday, BN was unable to get past the resistance of 45399. See what happened today - we opened gap-down and by 10.55 we were back at the resistance level of 45399. The rejection made sense then as the mood was still bearish and little we did know what the remainder of the day had in store. The elongated encircled region is when BN was still negotiating in and around the SR level. Once it got past that - the next test was at the purple descending trend line (which we drew yesterday). That was also kind of accurate as on 3 instances we had a contact. 4mts chart The climb of 670pts from 14.07 to 14.39 made all the difference today. It drove our algo into a tailspin and ensured that we booked the highest intraday loss till now. You might already know most algos prefer to play straddle or strangles and today being the expiry day created more trouble. The calls when sold were damn cheap and when the stop loss got hit - it appreciated more than 100 to 200%. Yesterday we pointed out the unusual skew in the PUT and CALL premiums, the calls staying cheap. Today we fell victim to that. 63mts chart We have another W pattern today and since the resistance is breached, it is a good sign for the bulls. Overall our stance is now revised to neutral from bearish. What is more interesting is that BN has a perfect at-par close with the last expiry i.e. 7th Feb. The first thing we will be looking out for tomorrow is to see if there is follow-up buying or whether what we witnessed today was just a blip. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 11805.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
14 Feb ’24 Nifty flies like a kite today, Resistance quite nearNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “On the 63mts chart, Nifty is still neutral with no clear indication of the next direction. BankNifty is bearish and the chances of Nifty going down may be higher due to that. The first target to break should be 21491 below which the bearish momentum will pick up an avalanche effect.” 4mts chart Nifty does another impossible feat today, breaks yesterday’s swing low and then surges 341 points ~ 1.59% to close near the resistance level. Yesterday we were gearing up to go short today as every indicator pointed to a negative start with a bearish bias. The global macro was pretty bad as SPX closed at -1.37% as their CPI Inflation data came in hotter than expected. Market participants here were expecting Nifty to fall at least 200 points today, but look at what happened - we fell first trapping the bears, and then shot upwards creating an avalanche (but in the positive direction). The price action made sense till 14.03 as it's quite normal for the indices to retrace and close the gap. But a surge of 234 points ~ 69% of the day’s swing range within the closing hours made no logic at all. We still believe it could be news/event-related and if yes - we may get to know it by tomorrow. In the 63mts chart, see the encircled region - the strength of the green candles stands out prominently. This has given Nifty a total makeover, till yesterday we were neutral with a moderate bearish bias. Today we are still neutral but with a bullish bias - as the resistance of 21913 is much closer than the support of 21491. The interesting thing is that if the moves today were not news-related and is a technical reversal then the break of 21913 will ensure the ATH is also getting taken out. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
13 Feb ’24 BankNifty is still bearish even after a 927pts rallyBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ BankNifty had a lot of anomalies today. Firstly, the start was slightly on the higher side and BN did not fall, unlike Nifty. We ended up defending yesterday’s swing low which came as a big surprise. You might remember, we had a bearish call for BN today and the fact that the downside move was not even attempted came as a shocker. 4mts chart Secondly, BN ended up rallying 927pts ~ 2.07% intraday and was still unable to break the 45399 resistance. If you ask us, it did break the resistance on the 4mts & 16mts chart. But on the 63mts chart, it is still unbroken. ICICI Bank & AXIS Bank were in tremendous form today rallying 2.38% and 2.3% respectively. The bulk of the gains today came from these 2 counters. HDFC Bank showed some intent to break through the 1400 level but was cut short. 63mts chart We are drawing a new trend line (purple color) - A bearish line. The difference here is that it is cutting through the candles on many occasions. Since it is not the perfect way to draw the line, we may even take it off shortly. The only reason we drew it was to plot the course BN is currently sailing. Tomorrow being an expiry day, we hope the bearish momentum will pick up the pace and the levels of 44542 and 44068 will get broken. The new purple line will serve as a dynamic resistance tomorrow. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 560 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
13 Feb ’24 — Even after gaining 127pts, we are still neutral ➡️Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow we wish to keep our eyes open for any bearish clues although we wish to stay neutral to start with. As always, we prefer BankNifty to make its move first and then Nifty50 will align itself to that direction.” 4mts chart We really thought the open may be flat and we would start falling, but to our surprise, we hit a session low of 21543 and then started climbing. By 11:11 Nifty had climbed an impressive 223 points ~ 1.04%. The options premium were totally weird today, an equidistant PUT and CALL options were trading highly skewed to the PUT side. Since we had some strangles on, we noticed even a premium spread of 1:2 wherein 1 lot of PE had the premiums of 2 lots of CE. Skews like these usually do not happen without a reason, in hindsight the reason was that the upside was capped. The PUT options were rightly priced and CALL premiums were not spiking - indicating that Nifty may not rise further. But this made no sense if you looked at the chart between 10 to 11 AM. BankNifty proved to be a bigger disappointment today, despite gaining 620 points ~ 1.38% - it was unable to break the resistance. Just imagine, when was the last time an Index rallied greater than 1.3% and still had a bearish tone? NiftyIT had no plans of its own - it was jumping around from RED to GREEN for no reason whatsoever. On the 63mts chart, Nifty is still neutral with no clear indication of the next direction. BankNifty is bearish and the chances of Nifty going down may be higher due to that. The first target to break should be 21491 below which the bearish momentum will pick up an avalanche effect. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
12 Feb ’24 BankNifty breaks a support, stance changed - BEARISHBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ We expected BankNifty to stay neutral today after what it did in the last session. Just to recap, BN broke through the resistance of 45399 last session and ended the day near the highs. We were expecting that momentum to continue today also as Banks had no inherent weakness to start with. But what happened today was unexpected - the swing range was a whopping 1118pts ~ 2.44%. And today’s low took out the last session’s swing low as well. 4mts chart If you notice the encircled region, once BN broke the support of 45399 - it attempted to go up but failed miserably. That was the exact phase where we understood that the Bears may overpower the Bulls. We fell 715 points ~ 64% right from those levels. So in case you got into the bearish stance late in the day - you would have still ended up the day in pretty good greenery. 63mts chart 44542 support level is quite near and BN tested 44633 levels ~ 91pts away. If the Bears are still in form tomorrow, we should expect the 44542 to be taken out in the forenoon session tomorrow. The next level in play would be the most important 44068 levels. We wish to start the day tomorrow with a bearish stance and take up short opportunities as and when it present itself. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 2538 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram