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IT "glitch" drags Nifty below 17950 from 18040+NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -11-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17867.55 H 18041.95 L 17839.10 C 17945.95 EOD - +50.75 points /+0.28% SGX Nifty at 1930h =20points FII DII = -1676 Crores. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened a mild gap up and then sold off to 8-10 low level and then, made a strong and sustained recovery to clear 18000 in style and then topped 18040 as well. However, by then FTSE had opened and the usual nervousness walked in and then there was a sell-off over the next 3 hours. Yet again, Nifty ended the day 90+ points below the ATH level achieved during the day. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 72 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 87 Net = -15 POSITIVES Nifty hit an All Time High above 18000. Nifty ended at yet another ATH close. HDFC was very volatile but settled in the green on an EOD basis. HDFC Bank seems to be pricing in a good result like how TCS did. Bank Nifty hit a new ATH and also ended at a new ATH. NEGATIVES IT big heads dragged Nifty in a big way. I do not recall TCS falling more than 3% post results in the recent past. Though this was to happen as it was at a very critical level below 4000. Reliance lost more than 60 points after hitting an ATH of 2720. TRADING RANGE FOR the coming week Nifty 17700-750 is the support base. I am not sure about the resistance levels as price action in Infosys, Wipro, as well as HDFC Bank may keep driving Nifty as they get ready to receive their answer papers during the next few days. Bank Nifty Support = 37500-700 appears to be a good support area. Since the ATH was hit today, I will let the index play its game for a couple of days and see where it ends the week before commenting on any resistance levels. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Nifty low for the day was just 1 point below 8-10 low and high for the day was 100 points above 8-10 high and yet Nifty managed to close only 50 points above 8-10 Close. This seems to be a mathematical play! The contribution by Nifty top 5 performers fell short by 15 points from the top 5 draggers of the Index. This is the kind of weakness and negativity that was driven by the IT index and that is why the subject line of the post. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 11-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
2
TCS Q2 results based strategies - OutcomeTCS Q2 RESULT BASED STRATEGIES - OUTCOME The IT heavyweight is scheduled to declare its results today after market hours. This is the reason I thought of doing a post cum video explaining the basis on which I have created the strategy only for the purposes of tracking and till the time of writing this post and creating the video related to it, I have not taken a position. If I do take, I will let you know in the weekend post. TCS hit a New All-Time High of 3989 and at the time of writing this post, it is around 3950. I already have other FNO positions on so I do not have spare capital to deploy so this approach. Please watch the video to know how the strategies performed and what I ended up doing when the scrip fell down by 6%+. I have chosen to track the following strategies: Bull Call Spread: In creating the spread, I have bought 3960 CE and shorted 4000 CE. The details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video. In the worst case, there is a loss of 4K and in the best case, a gain of 6K. In my view, this is a good risk-reward considering the fact that there could be wild movements in a scrip post its results and TCS has moved 2-3% in the past around such events. Outcome: At 1100hours = Spread Value When Created = 14 At 1100h = 03 Being a Bull CE spread, the value should have gone up for us to make money Gain / Loss = -11*300 = -3300 Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 80,000 ROI = -4% ATM Short Straddle: In this, I have shorted 3960 CE as well as PE. the details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video. The margin requirement is quite high so even if I create a strategy by EOD, I would not go for this. The Max gain is around 65K and obviously, the loss in unlimited as Options are being shorted. Though one can always keep an SL or exit when the spot reaches a pre-decided level. Generally, short strategies are useful when the implied volatility is high prior to the event and the position gains as the VIX cools off after the event. At 1100hours = Straddle Value When Created = 225 At 1100h = 293 Being a Short Straddle, the value should have gone DOWN for us to make money. Gain / Loss = -68*300 = -20400 Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 350,000 ROI = -5.83% I will post an outcome video as well on 11-10-21 so stay tuned! Till then, Keep learning & making money but at all times, please assign topmost priority to your capital and do all that is needed to stay in the game with it! Best wishes. Umesh 8-10-21 & 11-10-21
NSE:TCS
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
And at last, Nifty ends the day above 17800!NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -05-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17661.35 H 17833.45 L 17640.90 C 17822.30 EOD +131.05 points / +0.74% CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart And finally, Nifty ended the day above 17800, registered a new ATH as well as a new ATH close. Nifty opened mildly gap-down and went into consolidation until FTSE opened and when it was trading in the green, Nifty started seeing traction and the resistance around 17715 was broken with a big candle on a 5-minute chart. And then there was no stopping Nifty as it scaled newer heights with ease. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 72 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 17 POSITIVES Nifty made a new ATH and also closed at a new ATH. Reliance ended above 2600 which is another ATH for the scrip and one of the main drivers for the rally in Nifty. Bank Nifty was showing signs of weakness in the AM session but the PM session saw Bank Nifty recovering in a smart manner. India VIX fell again indicating a lower probability of a big and wild swing. Hdfc twins ended in the green though they moved in a narrow range. NEGATIVES Icici Bank and Kotak Bank were responsible for not letting Bank Nifty freely. Bank Nifty underperformed to Nifty due to the above. Infosys could not close above 1700 and as long as it trades below the level, it has the tendency to drift towards 1660 which is likely to put pressure on Nifty. TRADING RANGE FOR 6-10-21 Nifty 17600-650 is now the new support line and resistances would be at 17850-900-950. Bank Nifty Support = 37200-400 Resistance 37800-38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Why do we feel happy whenever an index or a scrip hits a new ATH and or ends at a new ATH? It is the positivity factor - it releases a great deal of positivity which is required by traders/investors who have put in their hard-earned money in the markets either to make a living out of it and or to create wealth. Bank Nifty was not in its elements - this is the key for any further upside in Nifty. If it plays the catch-up game, Nifty may be able to hit 18000 during this week itself. Such is the power of Bank Nifty! What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 5-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:RELIANCELong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
1
Astra Microwave - 16 Yrs Mega Breakout w/volumeBUY GUIDANCE: Never buy before 3PM (for positional trading). I have been burnt many times over. Try to buy between 3:15 - 3:30PM, later the better. SL: Depending on your risk appetite: Below Weekly BO Candle / Below Daily BO Candle / 50% of Weekly BO candle / Below 20DMA TGT: After a 10-15%+ vertical move, breakdown of 20DMA (on a daily close basis) SELL GUIDANCE: Selling in Profit: Sell earlier in the session when the prices are higher, around 11AM. Selling at SL: Give your stock a chance to recover by end of session. If it doesn't recover, sell anywhere between 3:00 - 3:30PM. Note: I reserve the right to be wrong. DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered analyst. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
NSE:ASTRAMICROLong
by raavigeorgian
2
Swing Trading Opportunities for W/B 27-9-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 27-9-21 INTENT I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan. ON MY WATCHLIST FOR W/B 27-9-21 -- This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week - WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS NIFTY WEEKLY CHART EOD Close 24-9-21 @ 17853.2 ACC BLUESTAR DHANUKA EMAMI FORCE MOTORS GM BREWERIES INOX LEISURE PAGE IND PGHH PHOENIX MILLS RAYMOND STR TECH UDAIPUR CEMENT CAPRI GLOBAL BPCL CIPLA ONGC TATA STEEL ULTRA TECH ACCELYA DCW IDEA WALCHANDNAGAR SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS- AUTO BANK NIFTY MEDIA METALS PRIVATE BANKS Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded. I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so. In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn. Thank you for your time and Happy Learning, Umesh 26-9-21 Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
What a strong comeback by the INDICES! NIFTY batting 17822!NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -23-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17670.85 / 17843.90 / 17646.55 / 17822.95 H-L = 86 points VIX 16.6 / +0.67% FII DII: +1530 Crores SGX NIFTY at 1930h - 17853 +22 points Likely open: Flat to mild positive. Profit booking may kick-in in the PM session. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A strong gap-up open and a sustained rally that ended the day a few points above the new ATH of 17843.9. It was after a long time that NIFTY was supported well by BANK NIFTY and other sectors as well. NIFTY yet again ends in the proverbial uncharted territory. The daily chart shows that today’s candle is up in the air like a rocket fired by someone. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 42 HDFC BANK 32 HDFC 30 BAJAJ FINSERV 28 ICICI BANK 19 TOTAL 151 The Draggers HDFC LIFE 02 ITC 02 NESTLE 02 DR REDDY’S 01 BRITANNIA 01 TOTAL 08 Lifter - Draggers = +143 POSITIVES RELIANCE chose to join hands with the HDFC twins and then what comes out was a blockbuster. BANK NIFTY also joined the party and has gained the lost ground in a matter of just one session. There are plenty of positives and the list would be long so I am not writing it here. NIFTY ends on yet another ATH and for the first time close above 17800. NEGATIVES As a mark of respect to the bullishness and positivity shown by the markets, let me not even think of any negativity at least for today’s analysis. TRADING RANGE FOR 24-09-21 I am not sure what to state about NIFTY levels. So I will let it settle down in the new terrain and will see where it ends the week before stating any levels. The spike in BANK NIFTY has torn apart all the levels on the downside so will wait for the index to end the week before stating them. The resistances are obviously at 38000 and then around the ATH of 38100+. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS All constituents of BANK NIFTY ended in the green. FMCGs are known as the defensives and today when the Indices were on a roll, there was mild profit booking in the sector as HUL, ITC and BRITANNIA ended in mild red. TATA MOTORS at one stage was up 4% and as against that MARUTI could barely move in to the 1st gear and struggled throughout the day drifting towards the P Close several times. For the last 2 days, similar price action had happened in the HDFC twins and today we know what happened! Will MARUTI follow their example tomorrow? RELIANCE may take its time to reach 2500 as it made an ATH of 2497 just around one of the FIB extensions. Peak margin rules would get invoked from tomorrow morning. So for retail traders like me, as regards Stock Options are concerned, the month would be expiring tomorrow around lunch as thereafter, many retailers like me, would start exiting thereby put pressure on the downside as regards Option premia are concerned. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 23-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:MARUTI
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
DIIs spoil the party, Drag NIFTY from around 17800NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -17-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17709.65 / 17792.95 / 17537.65 / 17585.15 H-L = 255 points VIX 15.23 / +5.69% FII DII: +130 Crores Likely open: Flat to negative. This is based on the SGX NIFTY and as the US markets close was in negative. A bounce-back is more likely as FIIs have bought in good numbers. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart A good gap up with a retest of the opening lows was then bought in to and NIFTY almost touched 17800 but there was immediate and sharp sell-off from 1030 that led to NIFTY falling 225+ points from the day high. After the first sell-off, it turned rangebound, but then as the market close was nearing, there was another sell-off which meant NIFTY ended below 17600. It was indeed surprising that the level was given away so quickly. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters KOTAK BANK 17 HDFC BANK 17 HDFC 04 BAJAJ FINSERV 03 BHARTI AIRTEL 02 TOTAL 43 The Draggers RELIANCE 22 TCS 13 ICICI BANK 08 TATA STEEL 08 INFOSYS 07 TOTAL 58 Lifter - Draggers = -15 POSITIVES NIFTY went very close to 17800 but failed to clear the line. BANK NIFTY made a high above 38100. KOTAK BANK & HDFC BANK outperformed all the other leaders. HDFC appears to have found some support around 2800. FIIs have bought in large numbers. NEGATIVES INFOSYS is suffering from 1700+ Syndrome as it is unable to hold on to the level for more than a day at a time. RELIANCE was doing good but late afternoon sell-off brought it below 2400 yet again. VIX has gone up to 15+ after quite a few weeks. DIIs have sold heavily. TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 20-09-21 17300-17350 is the new support base. For now, 17800 may well prove to be a major resistance as the fall from just below that level was sharp and severe. BANK NIFTY support lines are 37200-400 and resistances at 38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS NIFTY was clearly hijacked by RELIANCE, TCS & INFOSYS. There was extreme volatility and fast movement in NIFTY making it a hard day for the traders. HDFC BANK retested 1560 levels and then shot up more than 1% to close above 1580 and this along with KOTAK BANK closing above 2000 saved the day for BANK NIFTY as it ended in the green and in the process, helped NIFTY from sinking further. Clearly, BANK NIFTY is now looking stronger than NIFTY and may well hold the key to NIFTY holding higher levels. RELIANCE ended the day 65 points lower than the day high which is more than 2% and that is what spooked NIFTY. SGX NIFTY is showing a gap down of almost 100 points but this is not entirely reliable as we have seen in the past. Since FIIs have bought in large numbers, a gap-down is more likely to be bought into unless there is something else that happens between 19-9 evening and the market open. Social Media is very quick to signal that the top was made on Friday and now NIFTY is heading down. When August was in good green, it was said that September would be a washout and now when NIFTY kept scaling ATH after ATH in Sep, a fall of 44 points is being called out as end of the road. The fact is no one really knows and there is no point doing guesswork as in a matter of 23 hours, the day would have ended and clarity would have emerged. The best approach would be to keep all news and views aside and react to the price action by sticking to the right process that has given you success in the past. That is what matters in the end. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 19-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
2
Mentorship InstaView 16 Sept’21: Elephants can Dance
Nifty View: ITC and erstwhile underperforming PSU banking stocks stole the show in today’s trading session. Big price gains backed by momentum and volumes from these stocks helped the benchmark Nifty index to post a day’s gain of 75 points. The index is now comfortable placed above 17,600 with no sign of immediate top out in any time frames. It makes sense to continue with the bullish bias and continue to look for long trades. Do watch the video for a more detailed analysis of the market. Thank you for following my work and please feel free to share your thoughts and suggestions.         Trade Well. Trade Wise. 
NSE:NIFTY1!
by Abhijit_Paul
2
Mentorship InstaView 15 Sept’21: Trend Stronger than Resistance 
Nifty View: A beautiful 150 point up move from the benchmark Nifty index in today’s trading session to mark the end of the recent 6-day old consolidation. The trend was UP and now with today’s rally it has picked up fresh buying momentum. Also good to observe stocks from PSU banking space participating in the up move, especially index heavyweight SBIN. The worry from a break below 17,300 seems to be behind us now and from a short term perspective (17,400-17,430) will act as supports. Watch the video for a more detailed analysis. Thank you for following my work and please feel free to share your thoughts and suggestions.         Trade Well. Trade Wise. 
NSE:NIFTY1!
by Abhijit_Paul
NIFTY batting at 17519 a record closing highNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -14-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17387.65 / 17532.7 / 17386.9 / 17519.45 H-L = 146 points VIX 13.73 / +1.1% FII DII: +399 Crores Likely open: Flat to mild positive. Tomorrow is the weekly expiry so keen to see where does NIFTY ends and whether BANK NIFTY can cross 37000 or it yet again goes sideways. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart A mild gap-up open was sustained very well as can be seen from the chart and NIFTY ended the day close to the day high and above 17500. The daily chart indicates that there was a strong buying that led the rise to the levels above 17500. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters INFOSYS 19 TCS 17 TITAN 12 BHARTI AIRTEL07 11 ICICI BANK 10 TOTAL 69 The Laggards NESTLE 02 TATA CONSU 02 HDFC BANK 02 AXIS BANK 01 ASIAN PAINTS 01 TOTAL 08 Lifter - Draggers = +61 POSITIVES NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH. And both are above 17500. TCS, INFOSYS, and KOTAK BANK helped NIFTY to a great extent in holding on to the higher plains. FIIs and DIIs have bought to the extent of 399 Crores which is somewhat less around such levels. NEGATIVES HDFC twins closed a bit below the P Close. RELIANCE has not been able to hold higher levels closer to 2400 and keeps falling back below 2380. BANK NIFTY is still below 37000 resistance which may drag NIFTY should HDFC BANK slide. TRADING RANGE FOR 16-09-21 17300-17350 is the new support base. For the resistances, we will have to a few days go by to see how and where it gets formed. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. This has not been changing for quite a few sessions now. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS I think my insights of yesterday were read by NIFTY as it deceived all and made a steady climb to the psycho mark of 17500 and closed above the line. If we look at the contribution of the yop 5 lifters of NIFTY it is 69 points and that of the draggers is 08. So the leaders net contributed 61 but NIFTY rose by 139 clearly indicating that the rally was well supported by the broader market. BANK NIFTY also extended its daily range to 500+ points which helped NIFTY. If HDFC BANK recovers, then BANK NIFTY is likely to cross the 37K mark - the Q is - will the giant move upwards? The NIFTY rise may have also been contributed by the Short Covering of 17400 CE as there was a good number of CE written as part of the ATM straddle. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 15-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT