AUDUSD bulls eye short-term hurdle amid RBA playsAUDUSD bulls stay hopeful as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ends QE, despite posting initial losses due to rejection of the immediate rate hike concerns. The upside momentum ignores recently cautious RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s comments while staying above a three-week-old descending resistance line, near 0.7115. That said, the 50-DMA level around 0.7170 acts as an immediate barrier for the pair to cross before directing the bulls towards the last home of bears, namely the 100-DMA level close to 0.7260.
Alternatively, pullback moves may initially aim for the 0.7000 threshold ahead of highlighting the lows marked in December 2021 and January 2022, respectively around 0.6990 and 0.6965. In a case where the AUDUSD bears keep reins past 0.6965, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of mid-June 2021 to January 2022 moves, surrounding 0.6920, should gain the market’s attention.
Overall, AUDUSD bulls are up for consolidating the early 2022 losses on hawkish RBA. However, the upside momentum needs caution as the US NFP is yet to play its role.
AUDUSD
AUD/USD AnalysisThe AUD/USD has resumed its decline in Asia, despite surprised by the sharp rise in inflation data.
“Underlying inflation accelerated to 1% quarter-on-quarter and 2.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Quarterly trimmed inflation was at its highest level since the third quarter of 2008, with annual figures For the first time since mid-2014, we are above the center of the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range, ".
"RBA will almost certainly need to adjust forward guidance to admit that rate hikes are possible this year. RBAs are likely to want wage growth to accelerate significantly. Therefore, it seems that the main argument is not to shift to a rate hike in 2022. However, it is possible to prove this faster than expected. "
The AUD / USD has returned to the well-known conflict level around 0.7160, which has played both support and resistance roles since last September. Beyond this area, the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which is the level at which the bulls struggled earlier this month, will be tested. Alternatively, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement seems likely to be the level of support after the daytime descent could not break Fibonacci.
AUDUSD ANALYSIS ON H4 CHART.Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across.
The Australian employment data released yesterday indicated a slowdown in jobs creation and unemployment rate continued to decline in December.
Employment Change (Actual: 64.8K, Forecast: 60.0K, Previous: 366.1K)
Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.2%, Forecast: 4.5%, Previous: 4.6%)
The Australian flash PMI data will be released next Monday at 0600 (GMT+8).
Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: NA, Previous: 57.7 revised from 57.4)
Flash Services PMI (Forecast: NA, Previous: 55.1)
Currently, AUD/USD is testing to break below the key level of 0.72. Its next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000.
Look for short-term selling opportunities of AUD/USD if it breaks below the key level of 0.72.
AUDUSD ANALYSIS ON H4 CHART.Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across. Recently, AUD/USD broke above the key level of 0.72.
The Australian employment data will be released later at 0830 (GMT+8).
Employment Change (Forecast: 60.0K, Previous: 366.1K)
Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.5%, Previous: 4.6%)
AUD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of AUD/USD.
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AUDUSD ANALYSIS ON H4 CHART.Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across.
The Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment data (Forecast: NA, Previous: -1.0%) will be released tomorrow at 0730 (GMT+8).
AUD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000.
Look for selling opportunities of AUD/USD.
AUDUSD eyes further downside, monthly support line in focusAUDUSD justifies a bearish candlestick formation, namely Gravestone Doji, to post the biggest daily losses in a fortnight the previous day. RSI retreat adds strength to the latest declines, suggesting further weakness towards an upward sloping support line from December 20, around 0.7150. During the pair’s weakness past 0.7150, the 0.7080 level may offer an intermediate halt during the fall targeting the year 2021 bottom surrounding 0.6990. It’s worth noting that the 0.7100 and the 0.7000 round figures may act as additional halts during the fall.
Meanwhile, the 100-DMA level surrounding 0.7285 restricts the pair’s short-term upside ahead of the latest swing high near 0.7315. Should AUDUSD bulls keep reins past 0.7315, the bearish candlestick formation gets rejected, which in turn will direct the pair buyers towards the mid-November swing high near 0.7370. During the pair’s sustained run-up beyond 0.7370, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of October-December downside, near 0.7435 and the late October bottom around 0.7450 should entertain buyers.
Overall, AUDUSD prices are likely to witness further downside towards the monthly support line but any further weakness will make it vulnerable to challenge the 2021 bottom.
AUDUSD Analysis on H4 Chart.Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across. Recently, AUD/USD trended into the resistance zone of 0.73000 after the release of the strong U.S. inflation data, leading to the weakening of USD.
Currently, AUD/USD is trading towards the resistance zone of 0.73000 and the next support zone is at 0.71000.
Look for buying opportunities of AUD/USD only if it breaks the resistance zone of 0.73000.
AUDUSD Trend Analysis over H4 Chart.Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across. Recently, AUD/USD bounced down from the key level of 0.72.
The Australian Building Approvals m/m data (Actual: 3.6%, Forecast: TBA, Previous: -13.6% revised from -12.9%) released yesterday indicated an increase in the number of building permits issued in November, rebounding from the previous month’s decline.
The Australian Retail Sales data (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 4.9%) will be released later at 0830 (GMT+8).
Currently, AUD/USD is trading up towards the key level of 0.72. Its next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000.
Look for short-term selling opportunities of AUD/USD if it bounces down from the key level of 0.72.
AUDUSD Analysis on H4 Chart.Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards.
The Australian Building Approvals m/m data (Forecast: TBA, Previous: -12.9%) will be released later at 0830 (GMT+8).
The Australian Retail Sales data (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 4.9%) will be released tomorrow at 0830 (GMT+8).
AUD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of AUD/USD.