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AUDUSD

AUDUSD bulls running out of steam at five-month-old hurdleAUDUSD extends pullback from the 0.7430-40 horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since October 2021. Given the recently steady RSI and the volatile MACD signals, not to forget Ukraine-led risk aversion and downbeat comments from RBA Governor Lowe, the upside momentum is likely to fade again. Even if the quote manages to cross the 0.7440 hurdle, the late October swing low surrounding 0.7455 will act as another hurdle to probe the buyers. It should be noted, however, that a successful rise past 0.7455 enables the quote to challenge the 2021 peak of 0.7554. Meanwhile, pullback moves may initially aim for the March 10 peak of 0.7366 before retesting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of October 2021 to February 2022, close to 0.7325. Should the AUDUSD bears dominate past 0.7325, the 200-DMA surrounding the 0.7300 may challenge the further downside, a break of which will make the quote vulnerable to declines towards 0.7215-10 support confluence, including 100-DMA and ascending trend line from late January. To sum up, AUDUSD approaches a crucial hurdle to the north with fewer supportive catalysts.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD pullback battles 200-DMA with eyes on 0.7425-40 retestHaving successfully crossed the 200-DMA burden during the last week, AUDUSD rose to the four-month high on Monday. However, a broad horizontal area between 0.7425 and 0.7440, also comprising the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2021 to January 2022 downside, challenged bulls. Amid the overbought RSI conditions and a likely caution ahead of RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s speech on late Tuesday, the Aussie pair witnessed a pullback towards the 200-DMA retest, around 0.7320 at the latest. However, January’s peak of 0.7315 and early February’s swing high, close to 0.7250, will challenge the quote’s further weakness before highlighting an upward sloping support line from late January, near 0.7150 at the latest. That said, the latest rebound eyes the 0.7440 hurdle before challenging October’s swing low near 0.7455. Following that, AUDUSD bulls may aim for the 0.7500 threshold and the 0.7555-65 region, comprising the late 2021 peak and troughs marked during early 2021. Overall, AUDUSD bulls face a challenging task ahead of this week’s key events, which in turn can allow them to take a breather. However, bears have a long road before taking control.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD ANALYSIS ON H4 CHART.Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, AUD/USD broke the resistance zone of 0.73000. The Australian Building Approvals m/m data (Actual: 1.8%, Forecast: -2.9%, Previous: 8.2%) released last Friday indicated that consumer spending continues to increase at the same rate during February. Currently, AUD/USD is trading up towards the key level of 0.74. Its next support zone is at 0.73000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.75000. Look for short-term buying opportunities of AUD/USD if it breaks above the key level of 0.74.
Long
by charliedavies770
AUDUSD ANALYSIS ON H4 CHART.Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards. The Australian Retail Sales m/m data (Actual: 1.8%, Forecast: TBA, Previous: -4.4%) released yesterday indicated an increase in consumer spending. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be announcing their monetary policy decision later at 1130 (GMT+8). It is expected that the central bank will keep interest rate unchanged at 0.10%. Focus on RBA’s view on the economic recovery in Australia and whether the ongoing geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine will have an impact on the Australian economy. The Australian GDP q/q data (Forecast: 3.0%, Previous: -1.9%) will be released tomorrow at 0830 (GMT+8). AUD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000. Look for short-term buying opportunities of AUD/USD.
Long
by charliedavies770
AUDUSD defends 100-DMA breakout with eyes on RBAAUDUSD holds onto Friday’s recovery moves from a three-week-old support line around the 100-DMA as Aussie traders brace for the RBA monetary policy meeting. Although Australia’s central bank has been dovish of late, any hints of a tighter monetary policy for the future may allow the AUDUSD prices to extend the latest run-up beyond the 100-DMA level of 0.7240. Even so, a downward sloping trend line from January 12 near 0.7280 and February’s high surrounding 0.7285 will act as extra hurdles to the north. Should the quote remain firmer above 0.7285, bulls will be confident in crossing the January month’s high near 0.7315. Alternatively, RBA’s downbeat comments and fears of softer wage growth could weigh on AUDUSD prices, which in turn highlight the short-term support line, around 0.7140 by the press time. It should be noted, however, that a clear downside break of 0.7140 will make the quote vulnerable to drop towards February’s bottom close to 0.7050. In a case where AUDUSD bears keep reins past 0.7050, the year 2021 low near 0.6990 and the bottom marked in January around 0.6965 will be in focus. Overall, the AUDUSD rebound approaches the key hurdles ahead of impending downbeat catalysts.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD eyes further gains on upbeat sentiment, Aussie employmentAUDUSD justifies its risk-barometer status, also backed by an upbeat Aussie jobs report for January, during Thursday. The Aussie pair stays above the 50-DMA amid upbeat RSI and MACD conditions, suggesting further advances. However, the 100-DMA and a downward sloping trend line from mid-November 2021, around 0.7240-45, becomes a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. Should the quote manage to cross the 0.7245 hurdle, January’s peak of 0.7313 will test the upside momentum before confirming the bullish trend towards the late 2021 high surrounding 0.7555. Meanwhile, the 50-DMA level of 0.7170, the 0.7100 round figure and the weekly bottom of 0.7085 restrict the short-term downside of the AUDUSD pair. Following that, 0.7050 and December 2021 low near 0.6990 will question the bears before directing them to the last month’s trough close to 0.6965. It’s worth noting that the RSI conditions may turn oversold and trigger the pair’s bounce off 0.6965, failing to do so will make the quote vulnerable to drop towards June 2020 swing low close to 0.6775.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD seller’s return eyes sub-0.7000 levelsAUDUSD marked a notable U-turn from the 50-DMA by the end of the key week. As RSI and MACD conditions back the recent weakness, another south-run towards breaking the 0.7000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. However, a convergence of the downward sloping trend line from August and 61.8% FE level of June 2021 and January 2022 moves, near 0.6920, become strong support. If at all the bears keep reins past 0.6920, the 0.6900 threshold may test the further downside towards June 2020 swing lows surrounding 0.6780. Alternatively, 50-DMA level surrounding 0.7165 guards immediate recovery moves of the AUDUSD prices. Following that, the 0.7200 round figure and the 100-DMA level of 0.7250 will be important to watch. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s rebound remains elusive below the previous month’s top of 0.7315. On a fundamental side, China’s return from the Lunar New Year holidays highlight AUDUSD as a lot has happened in the last week and Beijing will need to react to the hawkish monetary policy signals by the major central bank.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls eye short-term hurdle amid RBA playsAUDUSD bulls stay hopeful as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ends QE, despite posting initial losses due to rejection of the immediate rate hike concerns. The upside momentum ignores recently cautious RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s comments while staying above a three-week-old descending resistance line, near 0.7115. That said, the 50-DMA level around 0.7170 acts as an immediate barrier for the pair to cross before directing the bulls towards the last home of bears, namely the 100-DMA level close to 0.7260. Alternatively, pullback moves may initially aim for the 0.7000 threshold ahead of highlighting the lows marked in December 2021 and January 2022, respectively around 0.6990 and 0.6965. In a case where the AUDUSD bears keep reins past 0.6965, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of mid-June 2021 to January 2022 moves, surrounding 0.6920, should gain the market’s attention. Overall, AUDUSD bulls are up for consolidating the early 2022 losses on hawkish RBA. However, the upside momentum needs caution as the US NFP is yet to play its role.
by MTradingGlobal
1
AUD/USD AnalysisThe AUD/USD has resumed its decline in Asia, despite surprised by the sharp rise in inflation data. “Underlying inflation accelerated to 1% quarter-on-quarter and 2.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Quarterly trimmed inflation was at its highest level since the third quarter of 2008, with annual figures For the first time since mid-2014, we are above the center of the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range, ". "RBA will almost certainly need to adjust forward guidance to admit that rate hikes are possible this year. RBAs are likely to want wage growth to accelerate significantly. Therefore, it seems that the main argument is not to shift to a rate hike in 2022. However, it is possible to prove this faster than expected. " The AUD / USD has returned to the well-known conflict level around 0.7160, which has played both support and resistance roles since last September. Beyond this area, the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which is the level at which the bulls struggled earlier this month, will be tested. Alternatively, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement seems likely to be the level of support after the daytime descent could not break Fibonacci.
by FiscalAutonomy
AUDUSD ANALYSIS ON H4 CHART.Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across. The Australian employment data released yesterday indicated a slowdown in jobs creation and unemployment rate continued to decline in December. Employment Change (Actual: 64.8K, Forecast: 60.0K, Previous: 366.1K) Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.2%, Forecast: 4.5%, Previous: 4.6%) The Australian flash PMI data will be released next Monday at 0600 (GMT+8). Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: NA, Previous: 57.7 revised from 57.4) Flash Services PMI (Forecast: NA, Previous: 55.1) Currently, AUD/USD is testing to break below the key level of 0.72. Its next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of AUD/USD if it breaks below the key level of 0.72.
Short
by charliedavies770