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AUDUSD

AUD dips as Australian GDP slowsThe Australian dollar has reversed directions and is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7724, down 0.36% on the day. Australia's economy rose 1.8% (QoQ) in the first quarter of the year, down from 3.2% in Q4. This was above the consensus of 1.5%. The level of economic activity currently is 0.8% above the fourth quarter 2019 pre-pandemic level, as the recovery continues to deepen. On an annual basis, GDP climbed 1.1%, rebounding from the -1.0% read in Q4. The solid growth in Q1 reflects the continuing easing of health restrictions and the recovery in the employment market. Still, the positive numbers failed to impress investors, as the Australian dollar is down considerably in Thursday trade. The market will get another snapshot of the strength of the economy on Thursday, with the release of Retail Sales (1:30 GMT). In March, Retail Sales climbed 1.1%, and an identical gain is projected for April. As well, the country's trade balance is expected to widen to AUD7.90 billion, up from AUD5.57 billion. The RBA did not make any waves at its monthly policy meeting on Wednesday, as the bank maintained its policy settings. There is some unfinished business on the plate of RBA policymakers, as the bank will decide in July whether to implement further QE. The RBA statement did not provide any clues as to what the RBA is planning to do come July. The statement noted that “despite the strong recovery in the economy and jobs, inflation and wage pressures are subdued" and added a typical message that the bank is "committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions". Any hints from the RBA about QE could have a significant effect on the movement of the Australian dollar. On the upside, 0.7727 is under pressure. Above, there is resistance at 0.7777. There are support levels at 0.7658 and 0.7608
by OANDA
AUDUSD eases from key hurdle after RBA, US PMI eyedAUDUSD bulls step back from a convergence of a three-week-old resistance line and 100-SMA following RBA’s hints to July action. The Aussie pair drops to 0.7735 before the European session amid cautious sentiment ahead of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May, expected to remain unchanged near 60.7 level. In addition to the 0.7760-65 resistance confluence, a six-week-old horizontal resistance near 0.7815-20 becomes the key hurdle that holds the gate for AUDUSD bulls. Meanwhile, the latest pullback eyes the 0.7700 round-figure before highlighting a two-month-long support region near 0.7670. Though, the pair’s weakness past 0.7670 will make it vulnerable to drop towards 0.7585 and April lows near 0.7540. Overall, AUDUSD consolidates April-May gains between 0.7670 and 0.7820 area.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in AUDUSD Trading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (0.7765). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . AUDUSD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 37 Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.7705 TP2= @ 0.7675 TP3= @ 0.7585 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity_ME
8
China tensions weigh on Aussie, NFP loomsThe Australian dollar is slightly higher in Thursday trade. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7756, up 0.12% on the day. On the fundamental front, the RBA releases its quarterly policy statement on Friday (1:00 GMT). Relations between China and Australia continue to spiral downwards. China has engaged in a trade war against Australia, which included tariffs on Australian wine exports in November. Last month, the Australian government made the unusual move of cancelling an infrastructure agreement between China and the State of Victoria, which was connected to China's Belt and Road initiative. Predictably, the move was harshly criticised by the Chinese government. The latest salvo was fired earlier on Thursday, as China said it was indefinitely suspending the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. The dialogue has been frozen since 2017, so the move appears to be largely symbolic. The huge trading relationship between the countries will likely not be affected, such as Australian exports of iron ore to China. Still, the announcement of the suspension of the dialogue was enough to send the Australian dollar briefly lower. If there are further negative political developments between the two countries, the Aussie could face a bumpy road. All eyes will be on US nonfarm payrolls for April, which will be released on Friday (12:30 GMT). The ADP Employment Report is not considered a reliable gauge for the official NFP, but investors couldn't help notice that the ADP reading jumped to 742 thousand, up from 514 thousand. Nonfarm payrolls climbed to 916 thousand in March and with a forecast of 990 thousand, a reading above the symbolic one-million mark is certainly within reach. If nonfarm payrolls outperforms, risk sentiment would improve, which would be bearish for risk commodities like the Australian dollar.
by OANDA
Australian dollar dips as inflation missesThe Australian dollar is down slightly in the Wednesday session. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7747, down 0.27% on the day. Australian CPI posted a gain of 0.6% in the first quarter of the year, down from 0.9% in Q4 of 2020. The read was certainly respectable, but underperformed, as the estimate stood at 0.9%. Trimmed CPI, which excludes the most volatile items, dropped from 0.4% to 0.3% and missed the forecast of 0.5%. The weak readings have sent the Australian dollar lower. The lower than expected inflation numbers will lessen any pressure that was on the RBA to tighten policy due to stronger economic conditions. Australia has extricated itself in admirable fashion from the downturn due to Covid, although the vaccine rollout has been sluggish. The RBA has been cautious and says that it does not expect GDP or employment to reach pre-pandemic levels until later in the year. Once the economy reaches that level, there is a good chance that the RBA could tighten policy, such as easing QE, as we saw with the Bank of Canada earlier this month. What can we expect from the FOMC meeting later today (18:00 GMT)? Expectations for a dramatic announcement are low, as the Fed does not appear in any hurry to tighten policy, even with a rapidly improving US economy. The market seems to have bought into the Fed's message that even though inflationary pressures are growing, QE will not be reduced for a while yet. In follow-up comments to today's meeting, Fed Chair Powell is likely to wax positive about the economy but simultaneously state that the economy is still in recovery mood and needs the Fed to keep its foot on the pedal. Unless the Fed surprises with a more hawkish rate statement than expected, it should be "business as usual" after the meeting, which means that the US dollar could find itself under pressure from the major currencies. On the upside, 0.7813 has some breathing room in resistance as AUD has lost ground. Above, there is resistance at 0.7887. On the downside, there are support levels at 0.7688 and 0.7627
by OANDA
Australian dollar dips, CPI nextThe Australian dollar has reversed directions on Tuesday and recorded slight gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7781, down 0.22% on the day. Australian CPI showed a strong gain of 0.9% in the fourth quarter, and an identical gain is projected for the first quarter of the year. The economy is performing well, boosted by stronger demand for Australian commodities and ultra-low interest rates. Unemployment has been falling, undeterred by the end of the JobKeeper employment programme at the end of March. Not surprisingly, inflation is also showing strength, reflective of the positive economic conditions. Consumers are again spending, as Retail Sales rebounded in March with a gain of 1.4%, after a decline of 0.8% beforehand. This beat the forecast of 1.0%. The economy continues to grow after being reopened, and consumer spending is expected to be a key driver in the economic recovery. The RBA is projecting that GDP and employment will reach pre-pandemic levels later in 2021, which is 6-12 months faster than the central bank had expected. In addition to stronger domestic demand, Australia stands to benefit from a more robust global economy, which will translate into stronger demand for Australian exports. This bodes well for the Australian dollar, which has a tight correlation with commodity prices. Despite the rosy economic picture, the RBA remains cautious and has not given any indication that it plans to raise interest rates or even taper its QE programme. At its last meeting, the bank noted that inflation remains low and below the central bank's target, which is between 2-3 per cent. The bank added that although the employment picture has improved, unemployment still remains too high for its liking. AUD/USD is putting strong resistance at 0.7813. Above, there is resistance at 0.7887. On the downside, there is support at 0.7688, followed by support at 0.7627
by OANDA