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AUDUSD

AUDUSD bulls have tough time regaining control on Australia inflAUDUSD remains on the back foot at the three-week low after posting the biggest weekly loss since August 2022 on Australia inflation day, breaking convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late May to early June run-up on downbeat Aussise Monthly CPI. Having breached the stated key support, the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements, respectively near 0.6625 and 0.6550, act as the final defense of the bulls before directing the downside towards the year-to-date (YTD) low marked in May around 0.6460. On the contrary, the support-turned-resistance confluence around 0.6670, comprising the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement, guards the quote’s immediate upside ahead of an eight-day-long falling resistance line surrounding 0.6715. Following that, the 100-SMA level of around 0.6750 will restrict the AUDUSD pair’s further upside. Should the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.6750, a broad resistance area comprising multiple levels marked since May 10, near 0.6805-15, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD teases sellers on breaking short-term bullish channelAUDUSD prods three-week uptrend after RBA Minutes and PBOC rate cut impresses bearish ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony. Also favoring the odds of a pullback in the Aussie pair is the nearly overbought RSI and concerns about hearing hawkish words from Fed Chair Powell. However, a clear downside break of a three-week-long rising trend channel becomes necessary to convince the pair bears. In doing so, a daily close below the stated channel’s bottom line, near 0.6850, becomes necessary to convince sellers. Even so, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of around 0.6760 acts as the last defense of the bulls. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD upside needs to refresh the latest monthly peak of around 0.0.6900 to convince short-term buyers. However, the stated channel’s top line, close to 0.6940, will precede the 0.7000 psychological magnet to challenge the pair’s further upside. In a case where the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.7000, the mid-February around of around 0.7030 and the yearly high of 0.7157 will be in the spotlight. Overall, AUDUSD bulls appear running out of steam but the bears have a long way to retake control.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD buyers flex muscles for further ruling, 0.6820 is crucialAUDUSD marked the biggest weekly gain since early November 2022, not to forget mentioning the second in a row, backed by RBA’s hawkish surprise. The Aussie pair, however, currently jostles with the key upside hurdle as the key week comprising the US inflation and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision looms. That said, a four-month-old descending resistance line and the 200-EMA, challenge the bulls near 0.6750. Following that, the previous monthly high surrounding 0.6820 is the last stand for bears to leave before giving control to the bulls. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6820, the 0.6850 and the late 2022 peak of around 0.6900 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, pullback moves may initially aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the AUDUSD pair’s run-up from October 2022 to February 2023, close to 0.6660. In a case where sellers dominate past 0.6660, lows marked in April and March, respectively near 0.6570 and 0.6560, will be on their radars. It should be noted that the yearly low marked in May around 0.6455 appears the final fight for the bulls to win, if not then the pair’s southward trajectory towards a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of near 0.6375 can’t be ruled out.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls can keep control beyond 0.6560 on RBA DayAUDUSD struggles to defend the previous weekly rebound from the yearly low as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision. Although the Aussie central bank is likely to keep the benchmark rates unchanged after a surprise 0.25% rate hike in the last, it can follow the RBNZ’s hawkish action amid recently firmer Australian data and keep the pair buyers happy. Alternatively, an unimpressive RBA verdict needs validation from 0.6565-60 support confluence comprising a three-month-old horizontal support zone and a previous resistance line from mid-May. Following that, a quick fall toward the 0.6500 round figure can’t be ruled out. However, the yearly bottom marked the last week, around 0.6455, might challenge the pair sellers afterward. Meanwhile, the 200-EMA hurdle of around 0.6650 restricts the short-term upside of the RBA even if the Australian central bank offers a positive surprise. Following that, the mid-May peak of around 0.6710 can lure the AUDUSD bulls. It’s worth noting, however, that the Aussie pair’s upside past 0.6710 will witness multiple hurdles around 0.6750, 0.6800 and 0.6820. In a case where the AUDUSD manages to remain firmer past 0.6820, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the 0.7000 threshold and then to the yearly high of around 0.7160 are high. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to remain on the front foot despite the RBA’s status quo unless it breaks the 0.6560 key support.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD remains vulnerable to testing sub-0.6400 zoneAUDUSD remains on the bear’s side after breaking the key support line in the last week. The nearly oversold RSI, however, allowed the quote to consolidate in the last few days while the bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful. Hence, the Aussie pair remains vulnerable to testing an eight-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 0.6380 while any further downside may witness a pause before challenging the previous yearly low of around 0.6170. Meanwhile, any corrective bounce needs validation from the previous support line of around 0.6610. Following that, AUDUSD recovery towards the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6765 can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that the monthly high of near 0.6820 and the December 2022 peak of near 0.6895, quickly followed by the 0.6900 round figure, will act as extra filters toward the north. In a case where the AUDUSD pair remains firmer past 0.6900, a run-up towards the current yearly top of near 0.7160 can’t be ruled out. Overall, AUDUSD remains on the way to refreshing the yearly low unless crossing the 0.6900 mark.
by MTradingGlobal
5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This Week5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This Week The US dollar is in the midst of a week filled with pivotal events. Together, these fundamental drivers hold the key to understanding the potential shifts in the US dollar's performance throughout the week: - US President Joe Biden announced that a bipartisan agreement has been reached to raise the US debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion, aiming to avoid a default. He has now called on Congress to pass the deal asap. Fitch ratings will remove the “negative watch” rating on the United States when the deal passes or looks likely to pass congress. - The debt ceiling agreement has potentially weakened the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, leading to an increase in risk appetite in global markets. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure, rose by 4.4% in April compared to the previous year, up from the 4.2% increase observed in March. This development has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June. - Due to the Memorial Day weekend in the US, as well as bank holidays in Europe and the UK, Monday will experience reduced market liquidity. Additionally, institutions are preparing for month-end trading on Wednesday, which could introduce more volatility. - The US payrolls report for May will be released on June 2nd. Recent months have consistently shown better-than-expected job figures. It is anticipated that this week's job numbers will indicate an addition of 180,000 jobs, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. A tighter job market will reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with strong wage data also providing support if the actual figures surpass estimates.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
AUDUSD sellers need to break 0.6600 support to retake controlAfter repeated failures to cross the 100-DMA, the AUDUSD pair again attacks an 11-week-long ascending support line, around 0.6610 at the latest. That said, bearish MACD signals and a mostly steady RSI (14) line keep the Aussie pair sellers hopeful of breaking the stated key support. Even so, a confirmation from the 0.6600 round figure, becomes necessary for the bears to battle with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, close to 0.6545. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 0.6545, the odds of witnessing a gradual fall towards 0.6380 and then to the yearly low of around 0.6170 can’t be ignored. On the contrary, AUDUSD recovery remains unimpressive below the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6785. Adding strength to the stated resistance is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. That said, the 0.6710 can guard the immediate recovery of the Aussie pair. It should be noted, however, that the quote’s successful break of 0.6785 resistance confluence can propel the pair towards 0.6850 and a late 2022 peak of near 0.6895, quickly followed by the 0.6900 round figure. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to turn bearish after closely missing the negative weekly mark in the last.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD lures bears by poking 0.6635 supportAUDUSD remains pressured inside a two-week-old descending triangle after posting heavy losses in the last week. Also favoring the downside bias is the Aussie pair’s sustained trading below the 200-EMA, as well as bearish MACD signals. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) appears mostly oversold and hence the pair’s bottom-picking around the stated triangle’s support line, close to 0.6635 at the latest, can’t be ruled out. Should the pair sellers remain in the driver’s seat past 0.6635, a fall to the monthly low of 0.6605 becomes imminent. Following that, the previous monthly bottom and the yearly trough, respectively around 0.6572 and 0.6563, may challenge the pair’s further downside before giving control to the bears. Alternatively, AUDUSD recovery needs to defy the triangle formation by staying successfully beyond the resistance line, around 0.6650 at the latest. In that case, the 200-EMA hurdle of near 0.6700 may question the buyers before directing them to the monthly peak of near 0.6820. It should be observed that the Aussie pair’s sustained run-up beyond 0.6820 enables the bulls to aim for the 0.7000 psychological magnet, a break of which could allow buyers to target February’s highs surrounding 0.7030 and 0.7160. Overall, AUDUSD bears are holding the reins but need validation to dominate further.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD buyers need successful break of 0.6810 to keep controlAUDUSD remains firmer inside an 11-week-old trading range, poking the 100-DMA hurdle of 0.6790 of late. Apart from the 100-DMA, the stated range’s top line, close to 0.6810, also challenges the Aussie pair buyers. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI conditions approach the overbought territory and hence the 0.6810 hurdle appears crucial for bulls to cross to keep the reins. Following that, a run-up towards 0.6870 and the mid-February swing high near 0.7030 can’t be ruled out. In a case where the quote rises past 0.7030, the yearly high marked in February near 0.7160 may be expected. Meanwhile, pullback moves may initially aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6665, ahead of challenging the stated trading range’s bottom of surrounding 0.6560. Also acting as a downside filter is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 0.6550, known as the golden Fibonacci ratio. If at all the AUDUSD bears occupy the driver’s seat past 0.6550, the sellers may carve out a gradual fall towards the November 2022 bottom of near 0.6270 and then to the late 2022 low of around 0.6170. To sum up, AUDUSD buyers are likely to keep the reins but a pullback can’t be ruled out.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD eyes corrective bounce as RBA week beginsAUDUSD marked negative closings in the last two consecutive weeks ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision. That said, the previous weekly fall could be linked to a downside break of a seven-week-old ascending support line. However, the Aussie pair recently confirmed a short-term falling wedge bullish chart formation. The same joins the gradually ascending RSI line to suggest further consolidation of the latest losses. However, the quote needs to stay beyond the 0.6630 hurdle. Even so, an upward-sloping support-turned-resistance line from early March and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s March-April upside, close to 0.6660, can challenge the pair buyers. Following that, the 200-SMA level of 0.6685 acts as the last defense of the bears. On the contrary, a seven-week-old horizontal support zone near 0.6575-70 appears a tough nut to crack for the AUDUSD bears to retake control. In that case, the yearly low marked in March around 0.6560 may act as an extra challenge for the sellers before retaking the driver’s seat. Following that, the Aussie pair will be all set for the previous yearly low surrounding 0.6165. Though, the round figures may offer intermediate halts during the anticipated downturn. Overall, AUDUSD bears are likely to take a breather but won’t leave the table unless RBA offers a positive surprise and Fed disappoints, both of which are hardly expected.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD eyes further downside on Australia inflation dayAUDUSD stays below the key support line stretched from the last October, after multiple rejections from the 100-DMA hurdle, as traders analyze Australian inflation data on Wednesday. With a clear break of important previous support joining downbeat RSI and bearish MACD signals, the Aussie pair has a further downside to track. The same highlights the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6545, as immediate support to watch. Following that, the late October swing high near 0.6520 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement surrounding 0.6380 could lure the Aussie bears. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD rebound needs to remain successfully beyond the aforementioned previous support line from late 2022, close to 0.6685 at the latest, to push back the bearish bias. In a case where the Aussie pair rises past 0.6685, the 100-DMA level near 0.6800 could regain the market’s attention as a break of which will lure the bulls. Should the quote remains bearish past 0.6800, the December 2022 peak of around 0.6895 and the 0.6900 round figure could act as the last defense of the sellers. Overall, AUDUSD finally slips into the bear’s radar and is likely to drop further unless the quote stays beyond 0.6800.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD signals fresh 2023 low despite recent reboundBe it a clear rejection of a one-month-old bullish channel or sustained trading below the key SMAs, not to forget dovish RBA, AUDUSD has it all to convince bears. That said, the Aussie pair currently recovers towards the stated channel’s top line around 0.6685. Even if the quote crosses the stated upside hurdle, a convergence of the 100-SMA and 200-SMA, close to 0.6700, appears a tough nut to crack for the counter-trend traders. Should the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.6700, the previous monthly high of near 0.6785 and the aforementioned channel’s top line, close to 0.6820, can act as the last defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. On the contrary, the 0.6600 round figure lures AUD/USD bears, a break of which could challenge the YTD low surrounding 0.6560. It’s worth noting that the RSI is near the oversold territory and hence suggests limited downside room before portraying the pair’s corrective bounce. However, the quote’s weakness past 0.6560 won’t hesitate to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level of its mid-February to early April moves, near the 0.6500 round figure. Overall, AUDUSD is well-set on the bear’s radar for marking further downside unless any fundamental surprises.
by MTradingGlobal