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AUDUSD

AUDUSD remains vulnerable to testing sub-0.6400 zoneAUDUSD remains on the bear’s side after breaking the key support line in the last week. The nearly oversold RSI, however, allowed the quote to consolidate in the last few days while the bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful. Hence, the Aussie pair remains vulnerable to testing an eight-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 0.6380 while any further downside may witness a pause before challenging the previous yearly low of around 0.6170. Meanwhile, any corrective bounce needs validation from the previous support line of around 0.6610. Following that, AUDUSD recovery towards the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6765 can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that the monthly high of near 0.6820 and the December 2022 peak of near 0.6895, quickly followed by the 0.6900 round figure, will act as extra filters toward the north. In a case where the AUDUSD pair remains firmer past 0.6900, a run-up towards the current yearly top of near 0.7160 can’t be ruled out. Overall, AUDUSD remains on the way to refreshing the yearly low unless crossing the 0.6900 mark.
by MTradingGlobal
5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This Week5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This Week The US dollar is in the midst of a week filled with pivotal events. Together, these fundamental drivers hold the key to understanding the potential shifts in the US dollar's performance throughout the week: - US President Joe Biden announced that a bipartisan agreement has been reached to raise the US debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion, aiming to avoid a default. He has now called on Congress to pass the deal asap. Fitch ratings will remove the “negative watch” rating on the United States when the deal passes or looks likely to pass congress. - The debt ceiling agreement has potentially weakened the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, leading to an increase in risk appetite in global markets. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure, rose by 4.4% in April compared to the previous year, up from the 4.2% increase observed in March. This development has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June. - Due to the Memorial Day weekend in the US, as well as bank holidays in Europe and the UK, Monday will experience reduced market liquidity. Additionally, institutions are preparing for month-end trading on Wednesday, which could introduce more volatility. - The US payrolls report for May will be released on June 2nd. Recent months have consistently shown better-than-expected job figures. It is anticipated that this week's job numbers will indicate an addition of 180,000 jobs, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. A tighter job market will reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with strong wage data also providing support if the actual figures surpass estimates.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
AUDUSD sellers need to break 0.6600 support to retake controlAfter repeated failures to cross the 100-DMA, the AUDUSD pair again attacks an 11-week-long ascending support line, around 0.6610 at the latest. That said, bearish MACD signals and a mostly steady RSI (14) line keep the Aussie pair sellers hopeful of breaking the stated key support. Even so, a confirmation from the 0.6600 round figure, becomes necessary for the bears to battle with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, close to 0.6545. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 0.6545, the odds of witnessing a gradual fall towards 0.6380 and then to the yearly low of around 0.6170 can’t be ignored. On the contrary, AUDUSD recovery remains unimpressive below the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6785. Adding strength to the stated resistance is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. That said, the 0.6710 can guard the immediate recovery of the Aussie pair. It should be noted, however, that the quote’s successful break of 0.6785 resistance confluence can propel the pair towards 0.6850 and a late 2022 peak of near 0.6895, quickly followed by the 0.6900 round figure. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to turn bearish after closely missing the negative weekly mark in the last.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD lures bears by poking 0.6635 supportAUDUSD remains pressured inside a two-week-old descending triangle after posting heavy losses in the last week. Also favoring the downside bias is the Aussie pair’s sustained trading below the 200-EMA, as well as bearish MACD signals. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) appears mostly oversold and hence the pair’s bottom-picking around the stated triangle’s support line, close to 0.6635 at the latest, can’t be ruled out. Should the pair sellers remain in the driver’s seat past 0.6635, a fall to the monthly low of 0.6605 becomes imminent. Following that, the previous monthly bottom and the yearly trough, respectively around 0.6572 and 0.6563, may challenge the pair’s further downside before giving control to the bears. Alternatively, AUDUSD recovery needs to defy the triangle formation by staying successfully beyond the resistance line, around 0.6650 at the latest. In that case, the 200-EMA hurdle of near 0.6700 may question the buyers before directing them to the monthly peak of near 0.6820. It should be observed that the Aussie pair’s sustained run-up beyond 0.6820 enables the bulls to aim for the 0.7000 psychological magnet, a break of which could allow buyers to target February’s highs surrounding 0.7030 and 0.7160. Overall, AUDUSD bears are holding the reins but need validation to dominate further.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD buyers need successful break of 0.6810 to keep controlAUDUSD remains firmer inside an 11-week-old trading range, poking the 100-DMA hurdle of 0.6790 of late. Apart from the 100-DMA, the stated range’s top line, close to 0.6810, also challenges the Aussie pair buyers. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI conditions approach the overbought territory and hence the 0.6810 hurdle appears crucial for bulls to cross to keep the reins. Following that, a run-up towards 0.6870 and the mid-February swing high near 0.7030 can’t be ruled out. In a case where the quote rises past 0.7030, the yearly high marked in February near 0.7160 may be expected. Meanwhile, pullback moves may initially aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6665, ahead of challenging the stated trading range’s bottom of surrounding 0.6560. Also acting as a downside filter is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 0.6550, known as the golden Fibonacci ratio. If at all the AUDUSD bears occupy the driver’s seat past 0.6550, the sellers may carve out a gradual fall towards the November 2022 bottom of near 0.6270 and then to the late 2022 low of around 0.6170. To sum up, AUDUSD buyers are likely to keep the reins but a pullback can’t be ruled out.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD eyes corrective bounce as RBA week beginsAUDUSD marked negative closings in the last two consecutive weeks ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision. That said, the previous weekly fall could be linked to a downside break of a seven-week-old ascending support line. However, the Aussie pair recently confirmed a short-term falling wedge bullish chart formation. The same joins the gradually ascending RSI line to suggest further consolidation of the latest losses. However, the quote needs to stay beyond the 0.6630 hurdle. Even so, an upward-sloping support-turned-resistance line from early March and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s March-April upside, close to 0.6660, can challenge the pair buyers. Following that, the 200-SMA level of 0.6685 acts as the last defense of the bears. On the contrary, a seven-week-old horizontal support zone near 0.6575-70 appears a tough nut to crack for the AUDUSD bears to retake control. In that case, the yearly low marked in March around 0.6560 may act as an extra challenge for the sellers before retaking the driver’s seat. Following that, the Aussie pair will be all set for the previous yearly low surrounding 0.6165. Though, the round figures may offer intermediate halts during the anticipated downturn. Overall, AUDUSD bears are likely to take a breather but won’t leave the table unless RBA offers a positive surprise and Fed disappoints, both of which are hardly expected.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD eyes further downside on Australia inflation dayAUDUSD stays below the key support line stretched from the last October, after multiple rejections from the 100-DMA hurdle, as traders analyze Australian inflation data on Wednesday. With a clear break of important previous support joining downbeat RSI and bearish MACD signals, the Aussie pair has a further downside to track. The same highlights the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6545, as immediate support to watch. Following that, the late October swing high near 0.6520 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement surrounding 0.6380 could lure the Aussie bears. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD rebound needs to remain successfully beyond the aforementioned previous support line from late 2022, close to 0.6685 at the latest, to push back the bearish bias. In a case where the Aussie pair rises past 0.6685, the 100-DMA level near 0.6800 could regain the market’s attention as a break of which will lure the bulls. Should the quote remains bearish past 0.6800, the December 2022 peak of around 0.6895 and the 0.6900 round figure could act as the last defense of the sellers. Overall, AUDUSD finally slips into the bear’s radar and is likely to drop further unless the quote stays beyond 0.6800.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD signals fresh 2023 low despite recent reboundBe it a clear rejection of a one-month-old bullish channel or sustained trading below the key SMAs, not to forget dovish RBA, AUDUSD has it all to convince bears. That said, the Aussie pair currently recovers towards the stated channel’s top line around 0.6685. Even if the quote crosses the stated upside hurdle, a convergence of the 100-SMA and 200-SMA, close to 0.6700, appears a tough nut to crack for the counter-trend traders. Should the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.6700, the previous monthly high of near 0.6785 and the aforementioned channel’s top line, close to 0.6820, can act as the last defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. On the contrary, the 0.6600 round figure lures AUD/USD bears, a break of which could challenge the YTD low surrounding 0.6560. It’s worth noting that the RSI is near the oversold territory and hence suggests limited downside room before portraying the pair’s corrective bounce. However, the quote’s weakness past 0.6560 won’t hesitate to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level of its mid-February to early April moves, near the 0.6500 round figure. Overall, AUDUSD is well-set on the bear’s radar for marking further downside unless any fundamental surprises.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD approaches key resistances on RBA dayAUDUSD stays within a three-week-old bullish channel, poking the upside hurdle, on the RBA day. It’s worth noting that the 200-EMA adds strength to the top line of the state channel, around 0.6815-20 by the press time. Given the firmer oscillator, the bulls are likely to keep the reins. However, a clear upside break of the 0.6820 hurdle becomes necessary for the buyers to aim for the last December’s peak surrounding 0.6895, as well as the 0.6900 round figure. Should the quote remains firmer past 0.6900, the mid-February high of around 0.7030 can act as an intermediate halt during the likely run-up towards challenging the year 2023 peak of 0.7157. Meanwhile, a downside break of 0.6665 defies the stated bullish channel and can quickly drag the AUDUSD bears towards challenging the monthly low of near 0.6563. In a case where the Aussie pair remains weak past 0.6560, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s run-up from early November 2022 to February 2023, close to 0.6450, may act as the last defense of the buyers before giving control to the sellers. Overall, RBA’s dovish hike should teases sellers but the Aussie pair’s trading within a bullish chart formation requires the trigger for the AUDUSD bears to retake control, which in turn highlights the 0.6665 support.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls slowly tighten grips on Australia inflation dayFollowing its bounce off YTD low, the AUDUSD pair crossed an important resistance line from early February, now support. The Aussie pair’s further advances, however, remained gradual and portray a 13-day-old bullish channel. That said, the quote picks up bids inside the aforementioned bullish chart formation ahead of Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February. Given the likely easing inflation pressure in the Pacific major’s economy, the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hurdle of around 0.6740 gains attention ahead of the stated channel’s top line, close to 0.6760. It’s worth noting that the mid-February swing high surrounding 0.6785 acts as the last check for the Aussie pair buyers. Alternatively, a downside break of the 0.6640 support, comprising the lower line of the bullish channel, could quickly drag the AUDUSD price towards the resistance-turned-resistance line from early February, close to 0.6575. It’s worth noting that the Aussie pair’s weakness past 0.6575 can witness a bumpy road as the yearly bottom of 0.6562 and the last October’s peak near 0.6545 may challenge the bears afterward. To sum up, AUDUSD forms a bullish chart pattern and a bumpy road toward the south as traders analyze Australian inflation data.
by MTradingGlobal