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Rising wedge confirmation, PBOC rate cut lure AUDUSD bearsAUDUSD drops to a three-week low early Monday while printing a six-day losing streak as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise rate cut. The Chinese central bank’s action pushed the Aussie pair to confirm a 3.5-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. However, the 50-SMA support of 0.6670 challenges the sellers of late. That said, the bearish MACD signals and the rising wedge confirmation tease bears ahead of the US/Australia PMIs for July and the US Q2 GDP, not to forget the US Core PCE Price Index that is also known as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Hence, a daily closing beneath 0.6670 appears necessary to convince the bears to target the 0.6600 threshold. Following that, the 200-SMA support of 0.6581 can test the downside momentum, along with downbeat RSI conditions, before allowing the sellers to aim for 0.6500 and 0.6400, as well as challenge the yearly peak surrounding 0.6360. On the flip side, the AUDUSD pair’s recovery remains elusive unless it stays beneath the aforementioned rising wedge’s lower line, now immediate resistance around the 0.6700 round figure. Following that, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of December 2023 to March 2024 upside, near 0.6765, and the monthly high of 0.6798 could test the buyers. It’s worth observing that the rejection of the bearish chart formation, by a daily closing beyond 0.6815, appears a strong signal for the Aussie bulls to challenge the yearly peak of 0.6839. Overall, AUDUSD appears ready to welcome the bears but a slew of top-tier data/events will be decisive to watch.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD stays on the way to 0.6850 hurdle despite downbeat ChinaAUDUSD prints mild losses while snapping a four-day winning streak and paring the previous gains from a five-week uptrend after China reported downbeat Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Industrial Production, and Retail Sales early Monday. Even so, the Aussie pair defends last week’s upside break of a four-month-old ascending resistance line, now immediate support at 0.6750. The RSI (14) line’s retreat from overbought territory suggests the quote’s additional weakness, but the bullish MACD signals can join the trend line breakout to keep buyers hopeful past 0.6750. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s daily closing beneath 0.6750 will direct bears toward May’s peak of 0.6714. Following that, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-October downside, near 0.6660, will precede the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6605 to act as the final defense of the buyers. On the contrary, the AUDUSD buyers keep the reins beyond 0.6750 and can aim for the 0.6800 threshold for the short term. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from June 2023, close to 0.6850, quickly followed by the late 2023 high of 0.6870, appears tough nuts to crack for the bulls. In a case where the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.6870, the odds of witnessing a run-up beyond the mid-2023 peak of 0.6900 will be certain, which in turn highlights the 0.7000 psychological magnet for the bulls. Overall, AUDUSD buyers can ignore the latest retreat unless the quote stays beyond 0.6750.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD drops within a symmetrical triangle after RBA MinutesAUDUSD extends the week-start losses toward 0.6600 as Minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting fail to inspire the bulls despite pushing back the odds of rate cuts, especially backed by the recent upbeat Australian inflation clues. It’s worth noting, however, that the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a fortnight-old rising support line, respectively near 0.6645 and 0.6630, restrict the short-term downside of the Aussie pair within a two-month-old symmetrical triangle formation, currently between 0.6700 and 0.6585. Given the normal RSI conditions and the sluggish MACD signals, the quote is likely to remain chopped within the stated triangle. Even so, increasing odds of the US Dollar’s run-up on hawkish Fed Minutes and the upbeat US jobs report keep the sellers hopeful. That said, a clear downside break of 0.6585 makes the pair vulnerable to slump toward a 2.5-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 0.6455-65. On the contrary, AUDUSD buyers need validation from the downbeat US data/events, as well as the previously stated triangle’s top-line surrounding the 0.6700 threshold, to retake control. In that case, the yearly high marked in May around 0.6715 acts as an extra filter toward the north before fuelling the Aussie prices toward the late 2023 peak of around 0.6870. It should be observed that the 0.6800 round figure and the mid-2023 tops near 0.6900 will also challenge the quote’s advances ahead of highlighting the 0.7000 psychological magnet. Overall, the AUDUSD pair is likely to remain depressed within a short-term triangle formation ahead of the key US data/events.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls attack six-week-old on strong Australian InflationAUDUSD jumps nearly 50 pips after Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose the most in six months early Wednesday, up 4.0% MoM versus 3.8% expected and 3.6% prior. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-May, close to 0.6680 by the press time, joins sluggish MACD signals and unimpressive RSI conditions to challenge the Aussie pair buyers. Even if the quote manages to cross the 0.6680, a 5.5-month-long falling resistance line surrounding the 0.6710 and 0.6730 mark will be the final defenses of the bears before giving control to the bulls targeting the 0.6800 threshold and the late 2023 peak of 0.6870. Conversely, the weekly low of near 0.6625 will challenge the AUDUSD sellers during the pair’s fresh fall. Following that, the 100 and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) might act as tough supports near 0.6590 while the monthly low of around 0.6575 acts as an additional downside filter. Should the quote remain bearish past 0.6575, the previous monthly low of 0.6465 and 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of October-December 2023 upside, near 0.6400, could lure the Aussie pair sellers. Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s further upside appears difficult unless providing a daily closing beyond 0.6730.
by MTradingGlobal
Softer Australia GDP growth, rising wedge lure AUDUSD bearsAUDUSD picks up bids to consolidate the biggest daily loss in a fortnight early Wednesday even as Australia’s Q1 GDP growth softens to 0.1% QoQ and 1.1% YoY respectively versus 0.3% and 1.6% priors in that order. The Aussie growth numbers also slide beneath market forecasts of 0.2% QoQ and 1.2% YoY. However, prices recover from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), close to 0.6635 at the latest, while posting mild gains within a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, currently between 0.6620 and 0.6750. It should be noted that mostly steady RSI conditions and the downbeat MACD signals join the softer Aussie growth to keep sellers hopeful. That said, the bears need validation from the 200-EMA support of 0.6610, in addition to the rising wedge’s bottom line of 0.6620, to retake control. Following that, the pair will be vulnerable to revisit the previous yearly low of 0.6270 while witnessing 0.6460 and the 2024 bottom surrounding 0.6360 as intermediate halts during the run-down to chase a theoretical target of the rising wedge confirmation. Alternatively, the 0.6700 threshold guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair in case of the quote’s further recovery. Should the bulls keep the reins past 0.6700, the yearly high of near 0.6715 and the aforementioned rising wedge’s top line surrounding 0.6750 will challenge the Aussie bulls. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 0.6750, the late 2023 peak around 0.6870 and the 0.7000 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight. Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s latest recovery could be considered a selling opportunity until the quote stays beneath 0.6750.
Editors' picks
by MTradingGlobal
1
AUDUSD seesaws within rising wedge despite upbeat Australia CPIAUDUSD makes rounds to mid-0.6600s early Wednesday despite witnessing better-than-forecast Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Australia. In doing so, the Aussie pair flirts with a horizontal support zone comprising multiple levels marked since early January, close to 0.6645-40. The pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the bearish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line. However, the sellers need validation from a nine-week-old rising wedge bearish chart formation between 0.6610 and 0.6720 to retake control. Even so, a convergence of the 100-SMA and the 50-SMA, near 0.6560, will be a tough nut to crack for the bears. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s rebound from the aforementioned support zone surrounding 0.6645-40 could quickly reclaim the 0.6700 round figure ahead of challenging the bearish chart pattern by poking the 0.6720 upside hurdle. If the quote remains firmer past 0.6720, it will also portray a bullish crossover among the moving averages and suggest further advances. That said, the 0.6800 round figure might test the Aussie pair’s upside past 0.6720 before directing it to the late 2023 peak around 0.6870. Overall, a lack of conviction in the upbeat Aussie inflation signals and downbeat oscillators keep AUDUSD sellers hopeful within a bearish chart pattern. However, the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls need validation from 0.6720 to keep the reinsAUDUSD bulls struggle to keep command at the highest level since January as a jump in the Aussie Unemployment Rate supersedes upbeat Employment Change data from the Pacific major and challenges the previous day’s run-up. That said, the risk-barometer pair marked the biggest daily rise in six months on Thursday after softer US inflation and Retail Sales numbers drowned the US Dollar. The Aussie pair’s upside also took clues from hopes about more stimulus from China. Technically, the upbeat RSI (14) and the bullish MACD signals join the AUDUSD pair’s upside break of a four-month-old horizontal resistance, now immediate support near 0.6645-40, to keep the buyers hopeful. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from early February 2023, near 0.6720 by the press time, challenges the quote’s immediate upside. Following that, the pair’s quick run-up toward the yearly high of 0.6839 and then to the late 2023 peak surrounding 0.6870 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the March 2024 peak of near 0.6665 acts as immediate support for the pair traders to watch ahead of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support near 0.6645-40. It’s worth noting that a one-month-old rising support line of around 0.6610, quickly followed by the 0.6600 threshold, will act as the final defense of the AUDUSD buyers before giving control to the sellers. Overall, the AUDUSD pair remains on the bull’s radar but the pair’s further upside hinges on a daily closing beyond 0.6720.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD portrays “fakeout” on RBA’s status quoOn Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its monetary policy unchanged, as expected, and dragged the AUDUSD pair back from an intraday high. With this, the Aussie pair defies Friday’s breakout of a four-month-old descending resistance line, terming it the “false breakout” or “fakeout”. In addition to the fakeout, the RSI’s retreat from the overbought territory and an impending bear cross on the MACD also tease the sellers. However, a clear downside break of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line surrounding 0.6600 and RBA Governor Michele Bullock's dovish remarks are needed for the bears to retake control. In that case, the pair’s quick fall toward 0.6570 and the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level near 0.6530 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth mentioning that the seller’s dominance past 0.6530 depends on the ability to break a three-week-old rising support line, close to 0.6515 at the latest. Meanwhile, an area comprising multiple levels marked since early January, near 0.6645-40, guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair. Following that, March’s peak of 0.6667 and the 0.6700 threshold will challenge the buyers. If the Aussie pair remains firmer beyond the 0.6700 hurdle, 0.6730, 0.6780 and the 0.6800 round figure could test the upside momentum before directing the bulls toward the late 2023 high of 0.6871. Overall, the AUDUSD pair signals a pullback price move, but the bearish momentum will likely remain tepid unless fundamental support is gained.
by MTradingGlobal
200-EMA tests AUDUSD bulls as Fed-NFP week beginsAUDUSD remains on the front foot at the highest level in nearly a fortnight, after jumping the most on a week since December 2023, during the early hours of the key week comprising the monetary policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US monthly employment report. In doing so, the risk-barometer pair justifies the upside break of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), bullish MACD signals, and upbeat RSI (14) conditions. Given the US Dollar’s preparations for top-tier data/events, coupled with the bullish technical details, the Aussie pair is likely to overcome the immediate upside hurdle, namely the 200-EMA level surrounding 0.6570. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 0.6615 at the latest, will precede a 3.5-month-old horizontal resistance zone of 0.6640-50 to challenge the bulls. Meanwhile, AUDUSD sellers remain off the table unless the quote stays beyond the 100-EMA immediate support of 0.6542. Even if the quote slips beneath the nearly EMA support, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October-December upside, close to 0.6500, and February’s low of 0.6442 will stop the bears from taking control. In a case where the Aussie pair remains bearish past 0.6442, the yearly low marked on April 19 around 0.6360 will be in the spotlight. Overall, the AUDUSD pair gains upside traction ahead of the key US catalysts but the bulls should remain cautious beneath 0.6650.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD extends recovery on mixed data but stays on bear's radarAUDUSD prints mild gains around mid-0.6400s despite mixed outcomes of the Aussie employment report and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) quarterly Bulletin. In doing so, the risk-barometer pair also cheers the US Dollar’s pullback, as well as cautious optimism in the market, while defending the previous day’s rebound from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside. It’s worth noting, however, that bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beneath the support-turned-line stretched from early November, close to 0.6510 at the latest, challenge the buyers. Even if the pair manages to remain firmer past 0.6510, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.6550 and a 3.5-month-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding 0.6640-50 will be crucial for the bulls to cross before retaking control. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s fresh selling could aim for the retest of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 0.6380. Following that, the nearly oversold RSI (14) and an ascending support trend line stretched from late 2022, around 0.6350 at the latest, will be the key test for the bears. Should the quote remain weak past 0.6350, the odds of witnessing a slower grind toward the previous yearly low of 0.6270 and the year 2022 bottom of 0.6170 can’t be ruled out. Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s latest rebound could be considered an opportunity for fresh selling. However, the fundamentals need to be watched carefully before taking positions.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD rebound remains elusive below 0.6500AUDUSD portrays a corrective bounce from the lowest level in a month, snapping a three-day downtrend, amid mixed data/events from Australia. Also allowing the Aussie pair to consolidate recent losses is the market’s reaction to the upbeat data from China, Australia’s biggest customer, as well as the below 50 levels of the RSI line. However, the bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beneath the 0.6500 support confluence, comprising an ascending trend line from early November and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s late 2023 moves, challenge the bullish bias. Even if the quote manages to cross the 0.6500 support-turned-resistance, a convergence of the 50-SMA and the 200-SMA near 0.6545-50 will be a tough nut to crack for the buyers. Following that, the 0.6600 threshold and a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since January, near 0.6635-40, will be the last defenses of the pair sellers before giving control to the bulls. On the contrary, a two-month-old horizontal support around 0.6475 restricts the immediate downside of the AUDUSD pair ahead of the yearly low marked in February around 0.6445. In a case where the Aussie pair remains bearish past 0.6445, the early November swing lows surrounding 0.6340 and 0.6320 could test the sellers before directing them to the previous yearly low of 0.6270. It’s worth noting that the quote’s weakness past 0.6270 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the year 2022 bottom around 0.6170. Overall, the AUDUSD pair is likely to remain bearish and the latest recovery appears less convincing.
by MTradingGlobal
200-SMA tests AUDUSD rebound from six-week-old supportAUDUSD struggles to defend the week-start recovery from an ascending support line stretched from early February as traders await the key US Durable Goods Orders and the Aussie inflation data, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. In doing so, the risk-barometer pair jostles with the 200-SMA hurdle surrounding 0.6555. It’s worth noting that the market’s cautious mood joins the sluggish MACD and steady RSI (14) line to raise doubts about the quote’s further upside. Even if the buyers manage to cross the key SMA hurdle, an 11-week-old horizontal resistance surrounding 0.6635-40 will be a tough nut to crack for them before retaking control. Meanwhile, AUDUSD sellers should wait for the aforementioned data, as well as the pair’s daily closing beneath the multi-day-old support line, close to 0.6515 by the press time, before entering. Even so, the monthly low of 0.6477 and February’s bottom of 0.6442 will challenge the quote’s downside. Following that, the bears could gain a free hand in targeting the 0.6400 round figure and the late 2023 swing low of near 0.6270. Overall, AUDUSD pares recent losses ahead of the key data/events but the recovery appears less convincing.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD sellers should keep eyes on 0.6510 and Fed talksAUDUSD stays on the way to posting a second consecutive weekly loss while reversing the post-FOMC rally. In doing so, the Aussie pair portrays a U-turn from an 11-week-old horizontal resistance surrounding 0.6640 amid a pullback in the RSI (14) line from overbought territory and a looming bear cross on the MACD. Also keeping the pair sellers hopeful is the clear downside break of the 200-SMA, close to 0.6545 at the latest. It’s worth noting, however, that an upward-sloping support line from mid-February, near 0.6510 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Following that, the yearly bottom surrounding 0.6440 and the previous yearly trough surrounding 0.6270 will lure the pair sellers. Meanwhile, AUDUSD buyers remain off the grid below 0.6640 but an intermediate recovery can’t be ruled out if the quote manages to stay beyond the 200-SMA level of 0.6545. That said, the pair’s successful trading above 0.6640 allows it to cross the 0.6700 round figure while 0.6730 and 0.6780 could challenge the bulls afterward. In a case where the buyers keep the reins past 0.6780, the late 2023 swing high of near 0.6870 seems a welcome level for them. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to witness further downside but the room toward the south appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD sellers attack 200-SMA to revisit 0.6525 key supportAUDUSD appears well-set for biggest weekly loss in seven while extending the previous week’s U-turn from a 3.5-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6675-80. The Aussie pair currently pokes the 200-SMA support near 0.6565 amid an impending bear cross on the MACD and a retreat in the RSI (14) line, which in turn suggests slower grind toward the south. Hence, the quote is likely to break the adjacent SMA support of 0.6565 and aim for an upward-sloping support line from mid-February, close to 0.6525 at the latest. In a case where the bears keep the reins past 0.6525, the monthly bottom of 0.6477 and the yearly trough surrounding 0.6442 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, AUDUSD rebound needs validation from late February swing high of 0.6595, as well as the 0.6600 round figure. Following that, multiple swing highs marked so far during 2024 near 0.6625-30 could test the buyers. It’s worth noting, however, that the Aussie pair’s further advances remain elusive unless the quote offer a daily closing beyond the aforementioned multi-month-old horizontal resistance zone near 0.6675-80. Should the bulls manage to keep the reins past 0.6680, the 0.6700 and 0.6750 might entertain them before highlighting the late 2023 swing high of 0.6871. Overall, the AUDUSD pair is likely to decline further and can challenge the key support line as traders await a few more US consumer-centric data ahead of the next week’s FOMC monetary policy meeting.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD probes month-long bearish channel on China’s returnMarket sentiment improved early Monday as China returned to trading after a week-long Lunar New Year holiday. With this, AUDUSD justifies its role as a risk barometer and cheers optimism at the biggest customer, namely China, by challenging a one-month-old bearish trend. However, the road towards the north appears long and bumpy before convincing the Aussie bulls. That said, the stated falling channel’s top line, close to 0.6555, guards the immediate run-up of the pair ahead of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Following that, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early January, between 0.6620 and 0.6640, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls before taking control. On the contrary, the AUDUSD pairs’ retreat will aim for the 0.6500 round figure before convincing the bears to target the monthly low of near 0.6440. It’s worth noting, however, that the bottom line of a one-month-long descending trend channel, close to 0.6430 at the latest, will restrict further downside of the pair. In a case where the quote remains weak past 0.6430, a slew of support levels around 0.6400, 0.6340 and 0.6320 will try pushing back the bearish moves. However, the pair’s downside past 0.6320 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the previous yearly low surrounding 0.627. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to extend the latest rebound as upbeat sentiment joins firmer MACD and RSI signals. However, the room towards the north appears limited and the upside is also dependent on the RBA and FOMC Minutes.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bears can ignore post-RBA rebound from 11-week lowAUDUSD prints the first daily gain in three while bouncing off the lowest level since mid-November after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the benchmark rates unchanged. The corrective bounce also justified the RSI (14) line’s rebound from the oversold territory. However, the bearish MACD signals and the previous week’s confirmation of the Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) bearish chart pattern keeps the Aussie pair sellers unless the quote jumps back beyond a convergence of the neckline and the 100-SMA, around 0.6525-30 by the press time. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained trading beyond 0.6530 isn’t an open invitation to the Aussie pair buyers as multiple tops marked during late January and early February near 0.6620 and the 50-SMA hurdle of 0.6650 will act as the final defense of the sellers. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s fresh downside needs validation from the latest multi-day bottom surrounding 0.6470 and the mid-November swing low of around 0.6450. Following that, the odds of witnessing the Aussie pair’s quick fall toward the November 10 swing low of 0.6338 and then to the theoretical target of the H&S, namely the 0.6190 can’t be ruled out. That said, the previous yearly low marked in October around 0.6270 may act as an intermediate halt during the fall between 0.6338 and 0.6190. To sum up, the AUDUSD pair’s recovery remains off the table despite the pair’s latest gains.
Editors' picks
by MTradingGlobal
1
AUDUSD lures bears amid softer Aussie inflation, 0.6670 eyedAUDUSD struggles to defend the bounce from a two-month-old rising support line and the 200-SMA amid softer Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Also attracting offers for the Aussie pair is the risk-off mood and an impending death cross on the four-hour chart, a bearish moving average crossover between the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI and MACD suggest a slower grind to the south. That said, the aforementioned trend line stretched from early November and the 200-SMA, around 0.6685-75 at the latest, appears crucial for the pair sellers, a clear break of which will help bears to aim for early December peaks surrounding 0.6620. Following that, an eight-week-old horizontal support area near 0.6540-45 will be the last defense of the buyers. Meanwhile, a convergence of the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA, close to 0.6750-60 at the latest, guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair. Should the quote remain firmer past 0.6760, the previous monthly high of around 0.6870 and the mid-2023 peaks near 0.6900 could test the Aussie pair buyers ahead of the 0.7000 psychological magnet and last year’s top of 0.7157. Overall, the AUDUSD buyers appear running out of steam but the bears need validation from 0.6670 to enter the ring.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD stays bullish beyond 0.6650 resistance-turned-supportAUDUSD edges higher past 0.6700 after posting the biggest weekly gains since the mid-November. In doing so, the Aussie pair defends Wednesday’s upside break of descending trend line stretched from early February, now immediate support near 0.6650. The resistance break joins upbeat RSI (14) to keep the buyers hopeful. However, the MACD signals appear less bullish and RSI line also nears the overbought conditions. The same suggests limited upside room for the buyers to cheer, which in turn highlights May’s high of around 0.6820 as an immediate upside hurdle to trace. Following that, a 10-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6900-6920 will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Meanwhile, a downside break of the previous resistance line near 0.6650, now immediate support, could quickly drag the AUDUSD prices to the 200-SMA support surrounding 0.6575. It’s worth noting, however, that tops marked in late August and early September, as well as comprising December’s bottom, will challenge the Aussie pair’s downside past 0.6575 near 0.6525-20. Additionally, a seven-week-old rising support line near 0.6480-75 will act as the final defense for the buyers before giving control to the bears. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to revisit the mid-2023 peaks during the year-end trading. The pullback moves, which are less likely, remain unimportant beyond 0.6475.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD extends pullback from 100-SMA despite RBA rate hikeAUDUSD drops nearly 50 pips even after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) matches expectations of announcing a 0.25% rate hike. In doing so, the Aussie pair extends the previous day’s pullback from the 100-day SMA while poking a five-month-old horizontal support. It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) line’s retreat from the nearly overbought territory also suggests the quote’s further declines past the multi-month-old horizontal support surrounding 0.6460. In that case, the 50-SMA support of 0.6390 will act as the final defense of the buyers before dragging the pair toward a one-month-old horizontal support zone nearing 0.6290 and then to the yearly bottom of 0.6270. On the contrary, the AUDUSD’s corrective bounce off the immediate horizontal support of near 0.6460 will need validation from the 100-SMA level of 0.6500 to convince the bulls. Even so, the monthly high of around 0.6525 and June’s low close to 0.6600 will challenge the Aussie pair’s upside. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6600, a nine-month-old falling resistance line near the 0.6700 round figure and the late July swing high of around 0.6740 will be on the buyer’s radar. Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s latest decline shows the market’s lack of belief in the RBA’s hawkish move, which in turn joins the bearish signals to keep the sellers hopeful.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bears again approach 0.6285 key supportAUDUSD extends the previous day’s retreat from the weekly top towards the bottom line of a three-week-old descending triangle surrounding 0.6285, tested twice in October. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) line is nearly oversold and hence challenges the Aussie bears around the key support. The same highlights the probability of witnessing a bounce from 0.6285 support but the recovery remains elusive unless the quote confirms the aforementioned bullish triangle, by crossing the 0.6390 upside hurdle. Even so, the 200-SMA and a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from early August, close to 0.6400 and 0.6440 respectively at the latest, will test the Aussie bulls before giving them control. Meanwhile, a downside break of the stated 0.6285 key support will need validation from the November 2022 low of around 0.6270 to keep the AUDUSD bears on the table. In that case, the 0.6200 round figure and the previous yearly low of around 0.6170 could lure the pair sellers. In a case where the pair remains weak past 0.6170, it becomes vulnerable to drop toward the April 2020 bottom of around 0.5980. That said, softer Australia Employment Change and Participation Rate join the broad US Dollar recovery to weigh on the AUDUSD pair. However, the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD stays pressured around yearly low on RBA status quoAUDUSD holds lower grounds near 0.6335, close to the yearly low marked last week, after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate unchanged as expected. It’s worth noting that the RBA Rate Statement appeared a bit dovish and hence allowed the Aussie bears to keep the reins, especially amid a broadly firmer US Dollar. Additionally, the bearish MACD signals and an absence of the oversold RSI line also keep the pair sellers hopeful. With this, the quote is likely to revisit a seven-month-old downward-sloping support line surrounding 0.6310, quickly followed by the 0.6300 round figure. Following that, the November 2022 bottom of near 0.6270 may act as the final defense of the buyers before directing the pair toward the previous yearly low close to 0.6170. Meanwhile, a corrective bounce can aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6380 by the press time, ahead of directing the AUDUSD buyers toward the 50-day SMA level of around 0.6470. In a case where the Aussie bulls manage to keep the reins past 0.6470, a five-week-long descending resistance line near 0.6505 will be the last hurdle for the upside targeting June’s low of near 0.6600. It’s worth noting that the Aussie pair’s successful run-up beyond 0.6600 enables the quote to reverse the 2.5-month-old downtrend by aiming for July’s peak surrounding 0.6900. Overall, AUDUSD remains in the bearish trend even as the multi-month-old descending resistance line challenges the sellers.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD eyes yearly low despite upbeat Australia inflationAUDUSD breaks a three-week-old rising support line even as Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) matches upbeat market forecasts for August with 5.2% YoY figures. The trend line breakdown joins bearish MACD signals to keep the Aussie pair sellers hopeful. However, the RSI (14) line is approaching the oversold territory and hence suggests a limited room towards the south. The same highlights the yearly low marked earlier in September around 0.6360. In a case where the pair bears ignore the oversold RSI and refresh the yearly low, the 0.6300 round figure and November 2022 bottom of around 0.6270 will be on their radars ahead of the year 2022 low of 0.6170. On the contrary, the support-turned-resistance line of around 0.6415 guards the immediate recovery of the AUDUSD pair. Following that, a convergence of the 200-SMA and the 50-SMA, around 0.6440 by the press time, will challenge the Aussie bulls. Should the quote remain firmer past the key SMA confluence, the 0.6500 round figure and a six-week-long horizontal resistance around 0.6530 will be crucial to watch for clear directions as a sustained break of them will welcome the buyers with open hands. Overall, AUDUSD remains in the bearish trend despite upbeat Australian inflation data.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls challenge five-week-old descending triangleStrong China data and a clear upside break of the 10-day SMA allow AUDUSD buyers to prod the resistance line of a five-week-old descending triangle on early Friday. Adding credence to the Aussie pair’s upside bias is the upward-sloping RSI (14) line, not overbought, and the bullish MACD signals. With this, the risk-barometer pair is likely to cross the immediate hurdle surrounding 0.6460, which in turn will open the door for the pair’s run-up toward the 50-day SMA level of around 0.6560. It’s worth noting that the 0.6500 round figure and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6550, act as extra upside filters to watch during the quote’s further upside. In a case where the pair price remains firmer past the 50-DMA, the lows marked in late June and early July around 0.6600 will act as the final defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s failure to provide a daily closing beyond 0.6560 could drag it back to the 10-day SMA level of surrounding 0.6415. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio and the stated triangle’s bottom line, respectively around 0.6380 and 0.6355, will test the Aussie pair sellers afterward. Should the quote stay weak past 0.6355, the November 2022 low of around 0.6270 and the previously yearly bottom of around 0.6170 will lure the sellers. To sum up, the AUDUSD pair is likely to witness additional recovery but the upside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal