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Bankniftyfuture

BANKNIFTY TRADE SETUPBANKNIFTY has been on an upside move since JUNE 2022. As shown in the chart BNF has respected the trendline till now and it has tried to break below the trendline however was not able to give a close below the trendline. LONG SIDE SETUP: BANKNIFTY might respect the trendline and continue its bull run if BNF manages to give a strong bullish close below tomorrow. If the trendline is broken one can look for a reversal from the zone (41900-41350) as shown in the chart. This zone has been tested previously and is a strong support. The zone and the markings is shown in the chart. SHORT SIDE SETUP: One can look for a short side entry in lower timeframes (5MIN OR 15MIN) if BANKNIFTY manages to close below the trendline shown in the chart. In the longer timeframes (1D) if BANKNIFTY manages to close below 41350 then a bearish momentum is likely to occur.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!
by ritwikr99
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 04 JAN 2023Probably you would feel it repetitive when i said the nifty and bank nifty made moves when the US markets were on holidays.  Look what happened today with bank nifty - we have negated the 2 day's of price action ie. 02 Jan and 03 Jan. Which means we have closed today at the same value as of 30th Dec The child was having a nice time when the mom was on leave, now that she is back & has grounded him ! Lets now analyze the 5mts TF - BN opens at 43417 and makes a move up in the opening 10mts - HOD 43578 at 09.25. This would be the poor participants who would have taken a long position based on yesterday's price action. And then the first leg of fall from 09.25 to 12.10 a fall of 670pts ~ 1.54%. The bank nifty's fall happened sooner than my marked SR level of 42888.  There was a brief pull back rally from 12.15 to 14.10 almost a 38.2% retracement Fibonacci - notice i have marked the FIB levels based on the HOD and the low formed at 12.10 because that's where it reversed. The 2nd leg of rally had a higher intent but we ran out of time. Bulls need not be that much worried because the first level of support is still not breached. What may have happened would be the after effect of the 2 day unchecked rally. Today's price move in US & tomorrow's expiry may set the tone for further action. check the image above, 49000 CE was traded for 90.52 lakh qty, 46000 CE 1.48 crores, 45000 CE 3.15 Crores, 43000 CE 11.8 Crores. The option trading participation & volumes picked up when the market started moving. Even there was a spike in the option premiums of PE at 12.07 - see 8 charts below - even the far OTM PEs prices almost went up 150% This sets the stage for a wonderful expiry tomorrow. If US market falls today then we can expect further corrections here due to the domino effect created by the options positioning (mostly expiry related). I am skipping the bank nifty component analysis as today's price action would be broad based!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty spot chart Analysis for 02.01.2023Banknifty standing just above a strong support of 42966. if banknifty crosses above 43113 then it may also cross 43266 and may reach to the level of 43418. between 43266 to 43418 is also an extremely strong resistance zone . If Bank Nifty crosses over 43418 then it may also cross 43571 and may reach to the level of 43713. if banknifty crosses down below 42966 then it may also cross 42814 and may reach to the level of 42671. if banknifty crosses below 42671 then it may also cross 42508 and may reach to the level of 42349. If banknifty crosses down 42349 then it take bounce back from bounce back zone. it is highly unlikely that banknifty will cross 43713 tomorrow and reach higher levels.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by stoxway
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 29 NOV 2022 Looking at the price action i had given a sell short call yesterday - read here I had to literally change the view looking at just the first candle. A mega green 5mts candle that took bank nifty 172+ points & above the swing high of yesterday. The rally did not stop until 11.05 creating a steady buying momentum. From 11.05 to close of day it was a slow fall back to where it all started. Final close just 0.08% above yesterday's close. In the gradual decline there are 2 candles that stands out, one at 14.20 and 14.35 which led bank nifty to fall below the swing high of yesterday. Now we have 2 contradicting signals - a breakout bullish signal in the forenoon session and a gradual bearish signal in the afternoon session. Which do we consider - not quite sure. Remember yesterday we had discussed the massive amounts of call writing especially for 43000, 44000, 45000 & 48000 CE. The pattern is quite similar today also. Approx 25 to 30% of options trading volume came after 15.00 today. Such intensity of call writings happens only when the call writers are confident that the markets will not move higher. I am a strong believer of this leading indicator and continue to be cautiously bearish till we see the call writing vs put writing ratio normalizes. --- Of the bank nifty components HDFC bank started the day strongly, made a peak and then started falling in the afternoon session. Final close was flattish but the pattern showed bearishness ICICI Bank showed intense strength, kept climbing and then showed no signs of reversing even when other banks started falling afternoon. Today's chart pattern looks flattish SBI had a gradual rise and then a regular fall in afternoon - final close flattish AXIS started the day strong, but the fall after 10.25 showed negativity. Although it went underwater only after 15.15 - the chart pattern shows negativity Kotak bank also closed flat but the chart pattern was quite confusing. A gradual fall to start the day, the a quick rise to swing high and then a quick fall to go back to flat line. IndusInd bank showed gradual bearishness. --- 15mts TF shows a top formation in place. If we have a down day tomorrow we can confirm it. 1hr TF shows either an interim double top or a consolidation move - will need to wait for more clarity. ---
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 24 NOV 2022 - ExpiryBank nifty broke out and made an all time high of 43163 today. The opening was at 42838 negating yesterday's fake price move from 15.00 to close. Notice how yesterday's rally continued with the yellow encircled region. Today's open and forenoon trade was in perfect alignment with the rally that started yesterday.  Since its a breakout rally - the momentum was gaining strength and the final 45mts of today's trade is proof of that. Before that BN was in a range a narrow one and the monthly expiry was nothing unusual. But the last 45mts gave some wings to the premium eventhough it was the closing minutes. 43000 CE went from 9.35 to 89.75 between 14.47 and close today, closed in the money with a final value of 76. The reverse is also true, 43000 PE went from 111.9 to 0.05 between 14.47 to close. When the VIX is near the lows ~ 13.47, implied volatility is low - the best option is to go with option buying (obviously we need a trend to make a killing). Personally i wish to stay away from directional trades right now, prefer to execute arbitrage trades. The Euphoria in the market is now at all time highs - just as the markets are. So there could be fake moves or wild swings with no accompanying fundamental reasons. All time highs are not good levels to enter with a purchase intent, because if the market reverses direction - you may end up holding something for years to come. --- Of the Bank nifty components, a common pattern is the last 45mts rally among HDFCBank, SBI, Axis and Kotak. HDFC Bk had a nice start and then it built on the gains, strong buying momentum towards the end ICICI had a relatively smoother slope, no pullback or consolidation intraday - just buying SBI started strong, went underwater and then the last 45mts ensured it ended the day with gains. AXIS had a similar chart like SBI, but the last 45mts gave it extra wings - the slope was approx. 80 to 85 degree Kotak was gradually fading underwater - but the last 45mts ensured it closes in the flattish territory. Indus Ind had a falling graph after a positive open. Took support at the Prev. close and final close was in positive territory. The final 45mts rally did have no effect on IndusInd. --- SPX vs Bank nifty - the spread is now at +6.32% vs 26.99%. US market will be closed today so we will not have any special macro related moves today. --- 15mts vs 1hr - Notice the clear breakout in the 15mts TF. Whereas its depicted as strong momentum in 1hr TF.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 07 NOV 2022Quite an eventful day today, Banknifty opened mega gap up at 41740 crossing 2 resistance levels in a single go (41314 & 41459). The first candle was red but with a long wick on the bottom - indicating that the opening trade was favoring the buyers. The major reason for the gap up was SBI which published good results this quarter. There was a decent fall till 11.25 where the BN tried to cross the 41459 support level - but it couldnt until 13.20. The candle at 13.20 was pretty long and red maybe just indicating that there could be a bit of selling pressure in the days ahead - unless the SBI results are macro shift capable. BN took support at 13.30 and then had a decent & strong buying momentum till close. It went from 41338 to 41758 between 13.30 to 15.20. The green candle at 15.00 negated the red one formed at 13.20 So now we have the BN near the all time highs and no more resistance levels - this make it quite difficult to set a risk:reward ratio for the trades. --- Of the major bank nifty components SBI ended the day with a gain of 3.4% making a 52wk high of 622.7 HDFCBk traded the 1st hour with a negative bias, and then made a strong rally from 10.15 ICICI started positive and then faded into red by 13.25 and then had a super rally to close the day Axis bank also started gap up went to negative territory by 10.25 made an intraday low at 11.25, a retracement bounce till 12.20 and then slipped back to negative. The final hour showed strength and the closing was in green. Kotak and IndusInd had a similar kind of chart pattern, gap up opening and then trading below the negative territory throughout the day. --- Look at the open and close prices - they are almost the same. Guess what would have worked today? Yes short iron fly.  Also shorting CE options or doing a CE credit spread would have worked out well as the time decay was higher due to holiday on 8th Nov. But shorting the calls would require quite some nerves as the bank nifty is as all time highs and there is no resistance. Mostly markets will follow the path of least friction, here it says UP. Because we do not have any more levels to watch. A single breakout rally can shoot the option premiums exponentially high. So request all traders to either set the stop losses or get into fixed loss strategies like ratio spreads, iron condor, iron fly or credit spreads (emphasis on credit as the time decay will help) --- SPX and bank nifty gap keeps diverging. There is a possibility of convergence if SPX rallies this week. As the mid terms elections and the US CPI data is due this week - we can expect an eventful price action till 11th Nov. The nearest support level is at 3737 and the resistance level is at 3813. From the 1hr red candle made on 14.30 there may be stiff resistance going into 3800+ levels. But if SPX manages to cross above that then the next 100pts can be scaled up so easily. --- 15mts is showing sideways market only, even though we had a gap up and resistance breach 1hr shows bullish momentum unless otherwise it settles for a top formation. So we watch the next 3 days closely and then decide --- Bank nifty support & resistance levels s1: 41459, s2: 41314 r1: no resistance as near ATH --- PS: Read the standard disclaimer at: bit. ly/3Nm3RER
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram