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Bankniftypostmortem

7th Dec ’23 - tomorrow's RBI meet- more liquidity drain ???BankNifty Analysis The opening candle was very similar to the Nifty’s. The low set in the opening minutes ended up as the low of the day. In a way, it shows the bulls are still in control. The pattern was quite similar to yesterday. Weak open and then range-bound trade. 4mts chart link - click here Banks will be on their toes tomorrow huffing and puffing to the RBI Governor’s announcement. I feel he will bring in some measures to cut down the liquidity. The 2 last attempts by varying the iCRR and CAR did not go that well. Bank stocks reacted pretty badly but recovered and hit new highs. Paytm fell 20% today when it said it might cut back on small value loans ~ Rs50000. I guess this impact came from the hike in CAR weightage from the last meeting. 63mts chart link - click here I guess there is no clue from the chart here, will have to spend the time in front of the TV tomorrow to hear from the RBI governor directly. Since I am already neutral on BankNifty, my level to go short for tomorrow will be 46341.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
6th Dec ’23 - stance changed to neutral, RBI policy on Friday ?BankNifty Today Analysis BankNifty also had a gap up open, but the first-hour price action did not seem normal. Not just because we went underwater and traded negative for the rest of the day, but the lack of will by the banks to move up. We all know the RBI MPC started the meeting today and we will have the summary on Friday @ 10.00 AM. 5mts chart link - click here Seems like the market is expecting something from the RBI Governor this time. The last time he came up with a CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) weight increment - the markets fell. Prior to that, we had the I-CRR incremental cash reserve ratio of 10%. I guess he is doing everything to control the liquidity without raising the repo rates. What will he do this time - increase the weight on SLR (statutory liquidity ratio), ask banks to keep more collateral with RBI ? The next move by Banks will make or break Nifty, that is because to continue the breakout strategy we need strong momentum. We cannot have a situation where Nifty rockets with the BankNifty stalling. 63mts chart link - click here The first 63mts candle of today is encircled, see the weight its body carries. There was a drop of 482pts ~ 1.02%. So even though we hit a new ATH today, this candle looks worrisome. I wish to change my stance to neutral from bullish for tomorrow. We will get 100% clarity only by Friday on what RBI Governor has in mind, till then it is better to take only high-conviction trades.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
5th Dec ’23 - New all time high for BankNifty - 47230.55BankNifty Analysis Just like we discussed yesterday, BankNifty outshined Nifty today. But surprisingly FinNifty did not correlate with Banknifty. That is unusual as the major components are the same. A detailed look into these stocks BAJFINANCE, BAJAJFINSV will give you the reason. 5mts chart link - click here HDFCBANK had a higher pre-open indicative price, the initial gap-up followed by cooling off was attributed to this. ICICIBANK hit a new ATH today. Most of the other bank stocks are hovering around those levels except HDFCBK and KOTAKBK. Even after a minor cool-off between 11.00 to 11.40 - we managed to close today with impressive gains of 580pts ~ 1.25%. The new ATH is 47230.55 63 mts chart link - click here On the 63mts TF, the island formation is clearly visible today. Yesterday’s strong green candles definitely give BN a psychological advantage to go long. I prefer to stay long with the first level to fall back at 46189.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
4th Dec ’23 - BankNifty has more firepower than Nifty for upmoveBankNifty Analysis The real reason for the outperformance on Nifty50 = BankNifty today. In the last newsletter, we discussed how relevant BankNifty’s next move would turn out to be. Would you believe we took out the ATH today and the new value is 46484.45? 5mts chart link - click here BankNifty went on to take out the 45399 resistance in the gap-up open itself. The momentum was so strong that it was not retested at all. We went flat for a bit but started trending after 12.10. The total gains today was an astonishing 1617pts ~ 3.61%. The options premiums were going crazy today - even the OTM put options. Such was the euphoria today. NiftyIT was not participating at all in the rally today, but I am sure no one would have noticed that as it was overshadowed by BankNifty’s outperformance. 1D chart link - click here BankNifty has just managed to climb back up to the double top pattern set on 21st July & 15th Sep. Since today’s green marubozu looks pretty strong, we can safely assume we are past that threat. Momentum-wise, BN has more firepower than Nifty for the immediate short term. I prefer to stick with my long stance until 45399 support level is taken out.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
1st Dec ’23 - BankNifty's next move will help Nifty to breakoutBankNifty Analysis Nifty had the gap-up today, whereas BankNifty opened inline but just above the resistance level. 44542 quickly became support and was bid goodbye with the consecutive green candles till 09.50. After that the momentum on BankNifty stalled and we had a flat trade for the remainder of the day. 5mts chart link - click here BankNifty gained points during trading hours i.e. active trading vs Nifty’s Gap-up. This shows real courage among the BN bulls. 1D chart link - click here BankNifty has another 1555pts ~ 3.4% to reach the ATH. From the chart above - you can see we dropped 9% after hitting the double top (M pattern). Nifty’s next action is hugely dependent on BankNifty’s attempt to regain the ATH. I would still like to continue with my bullish stance until proven wrong by taking out the supports. Will trade the morning hours of Monday with a bit of caution as the election results may play spoilsport.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
30th Nov ’23 - BankNifty stalled today, not sure of the reasonBankNifty Today Analysis From yesterday’s analysis, I was long into BankNifty and was quite surprised to see the breach of support level 44542 by 09.45. The candle that crossed this SR line took out 154pts, luckily no damage was done and we found a safety net at 44280 levels. 5mts chart link - click here I have not fully subscribed to the idea that the opening fall was due to the over-buying yesterday. Anyway, the bears were not able to overpower the bulls today, if so then we should have retested the 44063 levels. I do not plan to change my stance to neutral until that happens. 1hr chart link - click here The exit polls declared after hours today might show its impact in the forenoon session. I did not carry forward any position for tomorrow and decided to play as it is after the opening. If Banknifty is not able to accelerate to the next resistance of 45399, it could pose some trouble to the current trend. We all know how important the banks are for Nifty’s ATH recoup. -- BankNifty Monthly and Weekly Analysis BankNifty gained an impressive 1023pts ~ 2.36% over the last week, whereas the monthly gains of 1446pts ~ 3.36% were sub-par compared with Nifty. One of the reasons could be attributed to the news event on 17th Nov that took out some bullish momentum on banks.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
29th Nov ’23 - BankNifty Outperforms & is now bullish 🐂🐂🐂BankNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “BankNifty has picked up decent momentum from 22nd Nov when it bounced from the 43253 support level. The next level to watch is 44063 and till that is not taken out, I wish to maintain my neutral stance. Once BankNifty also goes bullish, it will be a treat to watch as Nifty is already long.” 5mts chart link - click here The gap-up was right at the SR zone of 44063 and it helped BankNifty change its sentiment. For the initial 30mts, BN was a little hesitant to make its move but as it held out the support level - it may have gained the confidence of the bulls. Hope you got my tradingview minds update as I went long today. And yes, it was definitely a treat to watch as both BankNifty and Nifty were on the long side today. Even the NiftyIT also supported today which meant there was no stopping. BankNifty went on to gain another 569pts ~ 1.29% once it defended its support. The total gains today were 685pts ~ 1.56%. Between 14.45 to 15.10, it took out another resistance level at 44542, this came as a surprise to me as I thought the resistance may hold. Since tomorrow is the expiry day for both Nifty and BankNifty we may some action in 2nd half. 1hr chart link - click here See the encircled region on the 1hr TF, 15th & 16th November when we were still in that ascending channel. The news that broke ensured BankNifty fell, but see what happened - the rebound was much more powerful. Today’s 14.15 candle alone grabbed 268pts ~ 0.61% and most importantly helped BN close above this encircled region. My stance is bullish on BN with 44763 as the first target. Keep in mind, a strong resistance is coming up at 45399.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
28th Nov ’23 - BankNifty is neutral till 44063 is taken out BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was following the last day’s price momentum, but it did not have an acceleration similar to Nifty today. Well the main reason why Nifty got that push was due to the 10% upper circuit hit on ADANIENT. Even ADANIPORTS also closed quite well today. Both of them combined added 39+ pts to Nifty’s gains today ~ 0.19%. You deduct that, you almost get the 0.26% net gains same as BankNifty today. 5mts chart link - click here That does not mean BankNifty did poorly today. We almost had a W like pattern between 13.00 and close. The next resistance of 44063 is still not taken out, which means we need to watch how it will react to the opening hours tomorrow. Also tomorrow we have no expiries as BankNifty will expire the same as Nifty & Sensex this Thursday. 1hr chart link - click here BankNifty has picked up decent momentum from 22nd Nov when it bounced from the 43253 support level. The next level to watch is 44063 and till that is not taken out, I wish to maintain my neutral stance. Once BankNifty also goes bullish, it will be a treat to watch as Nifty is already long.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
24th Nov ’23 - BankNifty has to take out a crucial resistance.BankNifty Analysis BankNifty had a positive-looking chart today, it was kind of obvious from the optimism it showed in the last 2 days. The first thing it did today morning was to take support from the 43566 area i.e. between 09.45 to 10.05 5mts chart link - click here At 10.40 it had a strong green candle and it looked like it was going for the next resistance area, but that momentum was cut short. Between 13.00 and 13.15 we started falling again and luckily we did not reach the SR area of 43566 to reverse. The recovery from 13.15 to close was decent enough and we gained 216pts ~ 0.5%. The main factor that kept Nifty neutral today was the outperformance by banks today, most of them would not have realized that NiftyIT lost almost a percent today. 1hr chart link - click here Looking at the 1hr TF, I am still inclined to go neutral unless we take out the 44063 resistance. To go bearish, 43253 has to be broken - in between we have 2 more support levels.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
23rd Nov ’23 - BankNifty takes out a resistance today 🐂 soonBankNifty Analysis BankNifty made some interesting strides today. After opening inline, it went to the resistance level of 43566 really quickly. By 10.00 we had a close above this level on the 5mts TF. I did update on the trading view minds that, I changed my stance from bearish to neutral because of this. 5mts chart link - click here Even though we did not go much higher, BankNifty was able to retain the lead and hold the ground. The Final close was also above this level opening up opportunities for further up moves. Fundamentally I still don't know if the banks have priced in the CAR and risk weight increment news perfectly, but from a technical chart perspective - it seems like the bearishness is almost over. 1hr chart link - click here BankNifty has a lot of ground to cover to get back at the bullish trend line. The first target would be to take out the 44063 resistance level and give some food for the bulls to charge. Over the last few sessions, I had a bearish view on the 17th & 20th, a neutral view on the 21st, and then a bearish view on the 22nd. Today I have changed the stance to neutral again. At present Nifty and BankNifty are in a neutral stance. Logically the directional bias has to be in sync for both Nifty and BankNifty, that's when the real magic happens. I am quite sure if BankNifty goes bullish tomorrow, Nifty will also get its stance changed.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
22nd Nov ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - stance changed to bearish 🐻BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was a total support and resistance play today. Unline Nifty, BankNifty did not retest yesterday’s swing high instead it started falling right from the open. We were at the 43566 support level till 10.20 after which it got broken. By 11.45 we broke the next support level at 43404 & that is when I changed my stance from neutral to bearish. I did update via the TradingView Minds on my stance change. TradingView minds is an excellent tool to inform everyone, if you are following me - you get an email instantly. 5mts chart link - click here The best way to go short today was to sell the calls as it was expiry day. The only way your calls retain value is if BankNifty moved up. After BankNifty broke the 43404 support it went to the next support of 43253 and was rejected. The rejection took BN back above the 43404 level. Reiterating that there is no way Nifty can go up with BankNifty looking bearish. 1hr chart link - click here BN is right at the 50% retracement from the recent run-up from 42105 to 44400. The 38.2% retracement level is at 43566 🙂, 61.8% retracement is at 43012. It is not quite usual that I get my support and resistance levels exactly in line with the Fibonacci retracement lines. My stance is currently bearish with the first target of 43012 and then 42576. In case we reverse course and go up, it has to take out 44063 before any bullish activity has to resume.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
21st Nov ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - Stance changed to Neutral !BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was perfectly neutral in trade today. I had a bearish call from yesterday but seeing the moves today it makes sense to switch back to the neutral mode. One reason why its not picking up direction would be attributed to the unavailability of information on the recent announcement by RBI. When the risk weights of consumer loans and credit cards were increased by 25% - maybe the market is still gauging the impact of this news. 5mts chart link - click here Few major banks had reported the decision would be similar to a 55bps to 60bps rate in interest. Note, the interest rates are not getting raised, the sucking of liquidity will give such a perception. According to me, a 55bps rate hike kind of feeling is not something that should be taken lightly. Meanwhile as a trader, I would prefer to wait for the markets to decide on where it goes next. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, BankNifty has fallen from the recent swing high of 44420, it had amassed gains of 2321pts ~ 5.51% between 26th Oct to 16th Nov (A short span), so it looks like the bulls have not given up yet, and the bears are still not able to make inroads. The support of 43566 has proven quite strong in the last 3 sessions and the next resistance of 44063 is quite far away. Since we are in an indecision zone, I would like to revise my stance from bearish to neutral and go short only if the 43404 support is also getting knocked out.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
20th Nov ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - Selling hasnt started yet 🐻BankNifty Analysis BankNifty started the day on a flat note and was not falling, which came as a surprise because towards the end of Friday’s session the short build-up was pretty intense. The low of the day was hit in the opening 5mts only and did not even go to the support level of 43404. We even had a recovery of 278pts ~ 0.64% by 10.30. 5mts chart link - click here During this recovery, the options premium on the CE side fell which gave a clue that we may not be having further strong selling today. However, towards the end of the day, we had a similar build-up of short positions as of Friday. This option flow is still suggesting me to go bearish on BankNifty. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, BankNifty showed no interest in getting back into the ascending channel. I suppose that channel can be removed as it will not make any sense going forward. Seems like its just a support and resistance game for some time now. My first support comes at 43566 and 2nd one at 43404 (unchanged as we did not break any SR today). The main resistance is still at 44063 which looks quite far away. I wish to maintain my bearish stance till 44063 resistance is not taken out.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
17th Nov ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - Buying groceries on CC EMI🚩BankNifty Analysis We will discuss the Capital Adequacy Ratio news in detail today as I was unable to find time yesterday due to an unscheduled hospital emergency. In yesterday’s postmortem, I mentioned that I would be changing the stance to bearish if the support of 44063 does not hold. Hope you would have got my tradingview minds update. 5mts TF chart link - click here We opened gap down at 43694 well below the support level of 44063. In the opening candle itself, we tested the next support level of 43566. Unlike Nifty, there was no recovery in sight for BankNifty. By 10.15 we retested the 43566 support again. The price action was not at all aggressive, we were only falling gradually. Its just that the opening candle had a swing of 565pts and I guess that was the maximum target the big-boys had in mind today. Towards close we broke the 43566 support and closed lower, which means we knocked out 2 support levels today. What is the news from RBI that has spooked the financial sector? RBI's tighter regulatory risk weight to hit banks' capital adequacy by 60 bps: S&P Axis Bank shares fall 2% after RBI raises risk-weight on consumer loans, imposes penalty Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank stocks tank as RBI's risk-weight move hits tier-1 capital RBI's New Guidelines To Have Capital Impact Of 55 Basis Points, Says SBI Chairperson SBI Card's Capital Adequacy To Fall 400 Basis Points After RBI Raises Credit Risk Weights If time permits, request you to go through these news snippets to get a fair idea of what transpired. When RBI decided to up the risk weight for personal loans and credit-card loans by 25%, it means the lender has to maintain adequate capital to cover those risks. CAR is basically for the health of the lender. From a macro perspective when Inflation goes up uncontrolled, people resort to personal loans and credit card EMIs to fund consumption. This is especially true for those segments of the population that did not have a proportionate rise in income. Think like this, if people start buying groceries using a credit card loan - it shows their inability to afford. It definitely is a red flag as the interest on these loans will catch up soon and the end-user could default if his income is staying as it is. 1hr TF chart link: click here Most importantly we broke out from the ascending channel pattern and created an island day today. If you read that price action along with 2 supports getting clean-bowled, it may be true that the bears are making a comeback. For Monday, I wish to maintain my bearish stance, the next targets would be 43404, 43253 and 43012. If we reverse and go up, the first major resistance will be 44063 and if we are unable to get into the ascending channel by Monday, I will be happy to remove that.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
16th Nov ’23 BankNifty Postmortem RBI's news about CAR triggersBankNifty Analysis Banknifty did not have the fuel to rally today, unlike Nifty50. The major reason was because NiftyIT was doing all the powerlifting today (closed 2.69% higher). Between 11.00 to 11.15, I almost thought BankNifty may participate in the rally and take out the swing high of yesterday. We had the first cooling off between 11.15 to 12.30 - something that said BN is not interested in going up. Then there was a broader rally between 13.50 to 14.45 where BN also participated and this time we took out the swing high. 99% of traders would not have predicted what would happen next. We fell 358pts ~ 0.81% between 14.45 to 15.10, at that moment I had no idea what could be the related news that triggered it. Later found out about the RBI’s risk flag regarding new loans especially unsecured, credit-cards & loans from banks to NBFC - source. What we understand is that RBI has hiked the Capital Adequacy Ratio by 25% for a few types of loans. CAR is a measure of the strength of the bank if a majority of its loans default. This could just be a warning shot & I would like to dig into this information as time permits. A few starting points would be the bank’s recent loan growth, the percentage of unsecured loans, and the real impact of the recent rate hike that got progressed to the end user. On the 1hr TF, BankNifty retests the 44063 support today but its well within the ascending channel envelope. I wish to change my stance from bullish to neutral and would like to go bearish if 44063 gives away in the forenoon session. To go bullish, I would wait till 44542 is broken on the hourly candle.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
11th Nov ’23 BankNifty PostMortem, bit of catching up is pendingBankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has gone up by 421pts ~ 0.96%. Bulk of those gains came in from the gap-up today. The real good outcome in this week was to break out from the 44063 resistance level which was proving to be quite a nuisance for BN. BankNifty Today Analysis Dont get confused with the chart below, I will explain the sloping lines shortly. Notice the gap up of 519pts ~ 1.18% today took out the crucial resistance of 44063. A walk down the history will teach you how crucial was that. 44068 was the most important level in recent times and a breach means there is only 1 way to go - UP. BankNifty after opening strongly started falling and it started to slow down only at 44200 levels. Of all the major sectors, BN proved to be the laggard in supporting Nifty50 today. NiftyIT on the other hand ended up with a whopping gain of 2.59%. All that is due to the SPX and Nasdaq closing yesterday. And its time to explain the ascending channel that we started drawing from the last post-mortem. BankNifty has respected the channel - more proof visible after the 1st hourly candle today. If we consider the break out from the resistance level of 44063 along with the ascending channel - its a strong bullish signal for BankNifty. Today’s underperformance will get covered up soon as BN usually goes ahead of Nifty during strong trends. My next level comes up at 44542, support is at 44063.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
13th Nov ’23 - BankNifty Postmortem Bullish Channel or Bearish🏴BankNifty Analysis Banknifty also erased the gains it made on Diwali Mahurat trading. Today’s close is almost at the same level as of 10th Nov. Interestingly BN tested the resistance of 44063 on Sunday from where it was rejected. Sunday’s trade could be thought of as manipulated (legally) as most of them come with a bullish bias for Muhurat trades. Few of them deploy their Diwali corpus on stocks, etf, gold etc. But today’s initial price moves suggest the sellers are not done yet. After opening gap down, we went another 252pts lower and then climbed back - just like a warning shot. But BankNifty recovered much more elegantly compared with Nifty. By 14.35 we almost closed the gap. There are 2 ways to look at the ascending channel. Either it's a strong breakout candidate or it may be a downward flag consolidation phase on a weekly time frame. The only way to confirm is to wait for clarity. If it's an upmove, 44063 has to be taken out immediately. If we are staying as it is or dipping, the bears will take it up from here. For Wednesday, I wish to maintain my neutral stance till one of these levels gets broken (44063, 43566).
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
2
10th Nov ’23 - BankNifty PostMortem - Ascending channel drawnBankNifty Analysis The real reason why Nifty50 reversed course today - BANKNIFTY. Yesterday we discussed how it took out the swing high set on wednesday. You wont believe that we took out yesterday’s swing high today even after opening with deep cuts. In the opening minutes, we dropped to 43504 well below the first support of 43566. I really thought the support would yield, but it did not. By 10.10 we started climbing. BN took a rest at 13.00 after which there was a minor retracement. Then at 14.50 we got our 2nd leg of climb that went all the way up to 43908. It sure looked like Dhanteras/Diwali buying. On the 1hr TF, I have drawn an ascending channel with the first target to beat being 44063. I wish to go bullish above that, till then I will hold on to my non-directional bias. I will not be writing about Muhurat trading on Sunday, but will mention any anomaly in my Monday report.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
9th Nov ’23 - BankNifty PostMortem - Neutral stance continues...BankNifty Analysis BankNifty traded totally differently from Nifty50 today. Nifty opened higher and was trading lower, whereas BankNifty took support in the first candle (43566) and was trading higher. We even took out the last swing high to hit an intraday high of 43876 by 11.55. The afternoon session perfectly matched Nifty’s price action. A gradual but steady downward move. Nifty took out the intraday low in the afternoon session whereas BankNifty stayed above water. One other reason for this was because the bulk of the loss on Nifty50 came from NiftyIT, RELIANCE & ADANIENT i.e. non BankNifty stocks. So I guess the participants would have purchased Bank stocks to limit the losses on Nifty. On the 1hr chart, BankNifty is also looking tired. To break through the next resistance of 44063, requires a strong build-up of momentum which looks quite difficult now. BankNifty has not made a rounded top-like formation like Nifty, but if we are to fall from here, BN has to fall first. I wish to maintain my neutral stance for tomorrow as well, the levels being 44063 on the upside and 43566, 43404 on the downside. If either of these levels are broken, I would change my stance to bullish or bearish. Will update the tradingview minds here when I do.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
8th Nov ’23 - BankNifty options premium traded at near 0 valuesBankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty gained an impressive 909pts ~ 2.13%. It broke through 3 resistance lines to give some hope to the bulls. If we talk about the expiry day today, the OTM premiums were horrible today. Due to the collapse of implied volatility - the market participants were not anticipating any movements. Today is one rare day when I decided not to sell any PUT options. I felt its better not to sell than sell cheap. CALL options on the other hand had better premiums after the opening hour. BankNifty Today Analysis We almost hit the 43800 levels in the opening candle, but there was some difference in the price action if we compare it with Nifty. Although both Nifty and BankNifty fell till 11.15, Nifty managed to climb back whereas BankNifty lost the momentum. The tiredness of the bulls was more prominent in BN. I usually take BankNifty’s price action as a leading indicator during trend reversals. Seems like I need to draw a new support/resistance line at 43566, because we stopped and reversed twice at that zone. I never had that level marked in my chart before. I have highlighted the 4 recent instances in blue color. Looking at the hourly chart, I have decided to change my stance from bullish to neutral. The only way to change back to bullish is to break the 44063 levels. Whereas to go bearish, BankNifty will have to break at least 4 supports and trade below 43012. So until then, I wish to stay neutral.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
7th Nov ’23 - 515pts 1.19% intraday rally on BankNifty?BankNifty Analysis The price action on BankNifty was more than exciting. The opening minutes would have given the impression of going bearish and it would have played out well till 11.50 wherein we fell 322pts ~ 0.74%. The 11.40 candle just went through the 43404 support as simple as that, reinforcing the bearish intent. What happened next would have surprised everyone. We took support at 43280 levels (much above the 43253 support zone) and then pushed through the resistance of 43404 with a nice GREEN candle. It did not stop there, it went on to break the swing high and close at 43780 levels. A whopping 515pts ~ 1.19% rally from the low of the day. The only reason I did not go short in BankNifty at 11.40 was that my margin was blocked in FinNifty. Glad that happened, else I would have hit with a sure stop-loss. The bullish call on BankNifty continues and my next target would be 44063. The last 4 hourly candles were in green today, especially the 13.15 candle that came right at the 43404 support level indicating further GREENish possibilities. For a bear run the support levels of 43404, 43253 have to be broken again.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
6th Nov ’23 - Gap-up takes out the Resistance level - BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis The only inspiration BankNifty required today was to open above the resistance zone of 43404. Gap-up open solved that problem. Since that level became the new support, we had a retest at 11.05 - but it was rejected. The beauty of the trade today was that BankNifty retested the 1st candle high at 15.10 only. And even the final closing was near those levels only. What I am trying to say is the gap-up itself gave a moral boost to the bulls, but not enough conviction. We will get momentum when the bulls beat the bears during trading hours - and since these resistance levels are getting knocked out, that should happen pretty soon. I still maintain the bullish tone for BankNifty tomorrow, but we need to take out the crucial level of 44063 soon. That is more or less the most important level for BankNifty as of now. 43864 is my first target for tomorrow followed by 44063. In case we are moving down, the first level to watch will be 43404 followed by 43253. Seems like the party for the Bears ended prematurely. Things were looking in their control till 1st Nov. If we have to fall - we might need a bigger trigger because the quarterly earnings are looking pretty good for the component stocks.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
3rd Nov ’23 - W pattern visible on BankNifty - 44063 next?BankNifty Analysis We had a gap-up open of 291pts ~ 0.68% followed by a range bound trade till close. It was a support/resistance play all along. See the blue encircled regions. BankNifty took support from the 43253 regions between 09.15 to 09.50 and was rejected at the resistance of 43404 at 10.55. We made another attempt at 14.25 to take out the 43404 level, but that too failed. I can say with some confidence that the reason Nifty50 did not take out the 19310 was due to the inability of BankNifty to break out from 43404 levels. A 15-minute TF will explain that better. The next major resistance comes at 44063 which is 600+ points away. So if BankNifty has to go there, then the breakout from 43404 has to be super strong. It is pretty difficult to generate that level of momentum during trading hours, especially with the implosion of volatility. The best option is to jump via gap-ups. The W pattern is quite evident for BankNifty also, which is again a bullish indicator. I am changing my stance to bullish and hoping that we take out the 43404 levels by forenoon Monday.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram