Bitcoin price loses correlation with the stock market On 17 MayOn 17 May, Bloomberg that the price of Bitcoin is at a high level of correlation with the shares of technology companies.
At the time, it was suggested that the main cryptocurrency was perceived as a growth asset, fuelled by:
→ the launch of Bitcoin ETFs;
→ expectation of Fed rate cuts.
But here was yesterday's Fed meeting, where the intention to cut the rate 1 or 2 (if inflation slows down more actively) times before the end of the year was announced. And with that, the Nasdaq 100 index of tech stocks rose to an all-time record of over 19,500 points. Bitcoin's price, on the other hand, is acting less confidently.
As the BTC/USD chart shows:
→ amid yesterday's news of declining inflation, the Bitcoin exchange rate jumped about 3% in 2 hours;
→ and today the price has returned to the levels before the news was released. What's more - it's gone lower. This is a bearish sign.
According to a technical analysis of the Bitcoin to US dollar chart:
→ the price has been oscillating for a long time along the median of the expanding fan, which originates back in November 2023;
→ each time the price deviated from the rising median, it returned to it (as indicated by the arrows) - thus showing that the consensus of market participants regarding the bullish outlook was stable.
Now the situation is changing:
→ having deviated down from the median, the price is having trouble getting back up (as shown by today's decline under the start of yesterday's upswing);
→ the psychological level of $70k is providing resistance;
→ the descending channel (shown in yellow) is becoming more apparent.
This could mean that the consensus is crumbling and there is a shortage of buyers in the market willing to pay more than $70k for the coin. The inability of the Bitcoin price to perform as strongly as the Nasdaq 100 index going forward will support this thesis. I expect a decline to the 1st support line below the median.
