Elliott wave count: we are in Wave 4-5I will present my way of counting Elliott waves to identify the upcoming local top of BTC. Each Elliott wave researcher and practitioner will have their own way of counting, and each counting method has its own basis and weaknesses. I hope to receive feedback from traders who use the Elliott method. For those traders who do not use this method, please feel free to refer to it if you find it interesting or useful.
1. BTC has broken the downtrend from the end of 2021, and I consider the start of the impulse wave to be late November 2022. Wave 0-1 extended until April 2023.
2. The duration of Wave 1-2 is not shorter than the duration of Wave 0-1, therefore Wave 1-2 ended in August 2023.
3. Using ExFibo, I determined that Wave 2-3 = 1.618 Wave 0-1. Wave 2-3 ended in March 2024.
4. The duration of Wave 3-4 is not shorter than the duration of Wave 2-3, therefore Wave 3-4 ends in September 2024.
5. The most important thing right now: predicting Wave 4-5.
Wave 2-3 was larger than Wave 0-1 so there is no limitation for Wave 4-5. I can list some cases that we can follow:
a) Wave 4-5 = Wave 0-1 => BTC may form a local top at ~$103K.
b) Wave 4-5 = Wave 2-3 = 1.618 Wave 0-1 => BTC may form a local top at ~$155K.
c) Wave 4-5 = 1.618 Wave 2-3 = 2.618 Wave 0-1 => BTC may form a local top at ~$295K.
