XAU/USD – FED, Tariffs & NFP Today | Captain Vincent🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
The probability of a FED rate cut in September has risen to 99.4% (from 96.6%) → almost certain.
FED’s Cook is under fraud investigation , combined with weak prior economic data → further strengthens momentum for Gold.
US–Japan deal : US reduces chip import tariffs to 15%, in return Japan invests 550B USD + purchases 8B USD in agricultural products. Although positive, it does not change the main outlook as markets remain focused on interest rates & inflation.
Trump : Threatens tariffs on all chip/semis companies not entering the US → raises geopolitical concerns.
NFP & Unemployment Rate (UR) tonight at 19:30 → key event, may trigger strong volatility.
⏩ Captain’s Summary:
Capital flow still leans towards BUY Gold thanks to FED rate cut expectations, but short-term shakeouts may occur before/after the news.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
M30 BOS: Gold has just formed a Break of Structure, overall trend remains bullish.
Captain’s Shield (Support): 3484 – 3486 (Main Buy Zone).
Storm Breaker (Resistance): 3575 – 3593 (aligned with Fibo 0.5 – 0.618).
If it breaks 3591 – 3593 → pathway to new ATH 3608 – 3610 or higher.
If it fails at Storm Breaker → price may retest Golden Harbor (3484) before bouncing back.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority)
Entry: 3484 – 3486
SL: 3478
TP: 3490 → 3493 → 3497 → 3505 → 35xx
⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term)
Entry: 3575 – 3577
SL: 3585
TP: 3570 → 3565 → 3560 → 3555 → 35xx
🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – Resistance)
Entry: 3591 – 3593
SL: 3600
TP: 3588 → 3585 → 3580 → 3575 → 35xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden ship sails smoothly as FED is almost certain to cut rates in September. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3484) is the safe anchorage to continue riding the bullish tide. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3575–3593) may create big waves for short Quick Boarding 🚤 , but the main current still carries us North.”
