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Captainvincent

XAU/USD – Gold Completes Liquidity Sweep Phase🔍 Market Context After a prolonged decline from the peak ATH GOLD 4,371 USD , gold has formed a Liquidity Sweep around the 4,010 USD zone, where the selling side was completely absorbed by strong buying pressure from the demand zone below. The price structure shows signs of a Change of Character (ChoCH) for the first time since the peak, along with the appearance of an Order Block (OB) 4,081 USD – the starting point for a new upward momentum. This indicates a high possibility that the market is entering a technical retracement phase , aiming to retest the FVG resistance zone above, or even expand back to the ATH zone if buying pressure continues. 💎 Key Technical Structure Liquidity Sweep: 4,010 – 4,020 USD → liquidity sweep bottom zone, increased volume appears, confirming absorption of sell orders. Order Block (OB): 4,081 – 4,090 USD → starting zone for recovery momentum; if the price retests this zone and holds → confirmation signal for an upward phase. Fair Value Gaps (FVG): • FVG1: 4,196 – 4,210 USD → first target for the recovery wave. • FVG2: 4,234 – 4,250 USD → next target, confluence of medium-term resistance. OB | ATH GOLD: 4,370 – 4,380 USD → major resistance zone, previous peak; if the price surpasses → confirmation of a new upward trend. Current market structure: → Short-term: bullish recovery (recovering from the bottom zone). → Medium-term: waiting for confirmation to break 4,234 to transition to a complete bullish structure. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ BUY Setup #1 – Retest the Order Block 4,081 USD Entry: 4,081 – 4,085 SL: 4,060 TP1: 4,196 TP2: 4,234 TP3: 4,370 ✅ Conditions: Wait for the price to retest the OB 4,081 zone, a confirmation signal for an increase appears (rejection / engulfing bullish) or a small BoS on M15. ➡️ This is a classic buy-the-dip setup after a Liquidity Sweep – high probability due to the confluence of OB + ChoCH + strong demand zone. 2️⃣ BUY Setup #2 – Break & Retest FVG 4,196 USD Entry: 4,196 – 4,200 SL: 4,180 TP: 4,234 → 4,370 ✅ Conditions: The price breaks up the first FVG with good volume, then lightly retests without closing candles below 4,180. ➡️ Trend-following setup, following the money flow when the price confirms breaking the short-term resistance zone. 📉 Alternative Scenario – SELL reaction at 4,234 USD (Short-term Scalp) Entry: 4,234 – 4,240 SL: 4,255 TP: 4,196 → 4,100 ✅ Conditions: If the price reacts strongly and fails at the second FVG without follow-up volume increase → a short adjustment phase may appear. ➡️ Short-term sell, only execute if there is no continuation confirmation at FVG2. ⚠️ Risk Management Prioritise BUY according to the main recovery trend, only SELL when there is a clear reaction. Do not FOMO buy in the middle range (4,130–4,180). If the price closes H1 candles below 4,060 → invalidate the recovery trend, pause all buy orders. 💬 Conclusion Gold has completed the Liquidity Sweep phase and is signaling a sustainable technical reversal . Two important zones to monitor: 4,081 USD (OB Zone): first rebound support zone. 4,234 USD (FVG Zone): zone confirming a new upward structure. If the price holds OB and breaks through FVG, there is a high chance gold will resume its upward momentum towards the 4,370 USD (ATH GOLD) zone. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Buy 4,081 USD → TP 4,234 / 4,370 USD. Sell reaction 4,234 USD only when a clear reversal signal appears. 🔥 “Liquidity has been swept — now it’s time to ride the recovery wave.” ⏰ Timeframe: 1H 📅 Updated: 23/10/2025 ✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Gold Tests Final Structure Before Deciding New Wave“If the 3,950 USD zone is breached, the long-term uptrend may end.” 🔍 Market Context After reaching the historic peak ATH GOLD 4,381 USD , gold has sharply corrected and formed a clear Change of Character (ChoCH) on the H1 timeframe. Currently, the price is technically recovering to the Resistance – FVG – Fibonacci 4,216 USD zone, which was previously a distribution peak. The sellers are regaining short-term dominance, while the Order Block zone (3,953–3,960 USD) — which was the starting point of the strongest growth on H4/Daily — is becoming the most critical defense line of the uptrend. If this zone is decisively broken, it is highly likely that the medium-term bullish structure will break and trigger a bearish expansion towards deeper liquidity zones like 3,689 USD. 💎 Technical Analysis Resistance – FVG – Fib Zone: 4,216 – 4,228 → confluence resistance zone FVG + Fibo 0.618, suitable for sell reaction. Liquidity Sweep Zone: 4,043 – 4,006 → intermediate liquidity sweep zone, may see a temporary pause. Order Block | Structural Base: 3,953 – 3,960 → H4 momentum creation zone → ATH; if breached, long-term bullish structure is invalidated. Liquidity Zone $$$: 3,689 – 3,685 → deep liquidity zone, potential target if OB is broken. Overall Structure: → Short-term: bearish corrective phase. → Medium-term: bullish remains if 3,950 is not broken. 📉 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ SELL Setup – Reaction at 4,216 – 4,228 USD zone Entry: 4,216 – 4,228 SL: 4,240 TP1: 4,043 TP2: 3,956 TP3: 3,689 ✅ Condition: Wait for a clear reversal signal (strong rejection or bearish engulfing) on H1/M15 at the FVG resistance zone. ➡️ Classic “Sell the Rally” setup – follow the flow post-ChoCH, targeting the key OB zone 3,953 USD. 2️⃣ BUY Setup – Reaction at Order Block 3,953 – 3,960 USD Entry: 3,956 – 3,953 SL: 3,940 TP: 4,043 → 4,216 ✅ Condition: Price holds OB and a strong reversal signal appears (bullish engulfing / increased volume / small BoS structure turns bullish again). ➡️ This is the decisive zone for the medium-term trend: if it bounces strongly, buyers will regain control; if it breaks, gold enters a new deep decline cycle. ⚠️ Risk Management Prioritise SELL when price retraces to 4,216 – 4,228 with reversal signals. BUY at 3,953 only with a clear reaction; if broken, cease all buy orders. When price closes H4 candle below 3,950 → confirm bearish break, extend target to 3,689 USD. 💬 Conclusion Gold is testing the Order Block foundation of the long-term uptrend (3,953–3,960 USD) . If this zone holds, the market may rebound to 4,216 – 4,280; but if breached, gold is likely to open a deep decline phase towards 3,689 USD – where a large liquidity pool is concentrated at the bottom. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Sell 4,216 – 4,228 USD if clear reversal signals appear. Buy 3,953 – 3,960 USD if strong reaction; If 3,950 is breached → confirm extended downtrend, prioritise SELL continuation. 🔥 “This Order Block built the last gold rally — if it breaks, the next leg down will be brutal.” ⏰ Timeframe: 1H – reference H4/Daily 📅 Update: 22/10/2025 ✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Gold Technical Rebound Prepares for Next Waveb]🔍 Market Context After reaching a peak at the ATH GOLD 4,391 USD region, gold has undergone a technical correction — reflecting temporary profit-taking following a strong upward trend. The market structure still maintains a bullish bias as the support zones below (FVG + OB) remain intact and untested. Currently, the price is hovering around 4,325 USD, indicating that selling pressure has weakened. Buyers are likely to return at two strategic zones below — where institutional money (Smart Money) typically accumulates positions before the next upward wave. 💎 Technical Analysis ATH GOLD: 4,391 USD Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,465 – 4,424 USD → the upper liquidity zone, the main target for the next upward wave. FVG Zone: 4,284 – 4,267 USD → an unfilled gap, likely to be retested. Order Block Zone: 4,244 – 4,230 USD → deep discount zone confluence with Fibo 0.786, high probability of strong reaction. Liquidity Clear $$$: 4,186 – 4,190 USD → the last defense zone of the main upward trend. Overall structure remains bullish ; the current decline is merely a phase of adjustment to “accumulate liquidity” before continuing the upward momentum. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ BUY Setup #1 – FVG Zone 4,267 USD Entry: 4,267 – 4,270 SL: 4,255 TP: 4,330 → 4,366 → 4,391 ✅ Condition: Confirming bullish candle (rejection / engulfing bullish) at the FVG zone or a small BoS appears on M15. ➡️ Short-term “buy-the-dip” setup, leveraging the unfilled FVG zone — where technical buyers often initiate positions first. 2️⃣ BUY Setup #2 – Order Block Zone 4,244 USD Entry: 4,244 – 4,230 SL: 4,210 TP: 4,284 → 4,366 → 4,391 → 4,424 ✅ Condition: Strong confirming candle (engulfing bullish) or a retracement pattern breaking a small BoS back up. ➡️ Swing-buy setup at deep discount zone — confluence of OB + Fibo 0.786, high probability and optimal R:R. ⚠️ Risk Management Avoid FOMO buying in the middle of the range (4,320–4,340). Prioritize waiting for clear reactions at 4,267 and 4,244 before entering trades. If the price closes an H1 candle below 4,210 → pause all buy orders, re-evaluate price action at 4,186. Maintain moderate trading volume during the current rebound phase. 💬 Conclusion Gold is in a phase of healthy technical correction within a major upward trend. The two zones 4,267 USD (FVG Zone) and 4,244 USD (Order Block Zone) are key “accumulation” areas for large capital. When bullish confirmation signals appear, these will be safe buy positions before gold heads back to the peak 4,391 – 4,465 USD . 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Buy at 4,267 – 4,270 USD if reversal confirmation occurs. Buy at 4,244 – 4,230 USD if a strong OB reaction signal appears. 🔥 “Smart money waits at precise levels — not at the top. The next gold wave will emerge between 4.267 and 4.244.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAUUSD PLAN | When balanced breaks, strength leaves its mark.🔍 Market Context After setting a short-term peak at the 4,385 – 4,372 USD zone, gold has entered a strong technical correction phase, with a series of consecutive red candles breaking the short-term upward structure. The sellers temporarily dominate, pushing the price through the H1 upward trendline. However, the support zone below (Liquidity Zone + Order Block Bullish) is beginning to show absorption, indicating that buyers might return at discounted price zones. 💎 Technical Analysis Previous Bullish BoS: confirms the main trend is still long-term bullish . FVG Down Zone: 4,285 – 4,260 USD → a price imbalance zone left in the downtrend, possibly where the price may retrace to “fill the gap” before choosing a direction. Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,222 – 4,218 USD → a short-term support zone where new buying liquidity appears. Order Block Bullish: 4,203 – 4,185 USD → a confluence area between OB and Fibo 0.786, where large capital might return. Deep Bullish OB: 4,142 – 4,128 USD → the last defensive zone for the main upward trend. Order Block Bearish: 4,372 – 4,385 USD → a critical resistance zone, likely to react if the price retraces. The current structure shows gold is in a retracement – liquidity rebalancing phase, with insufficient signals to reverse the trend. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Main Scenario – Buy reaction at Liquidity zone 4,222 – 4,203 USD Entry: 4,222 – 4,203 SL: 4,185 TP: 4,260 → 4,318 → 4,372 ✅ Condition: Strong rejection candle (rejection / engulfing bullish) appears at the support zone or small reversal BoS. ➡️ This is a “buy the dip” setup following the main trend, leveraging the liquidity zone and confluence OB. 2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Sell reaction at FVG Down 4,285 – 4,260 USD Entry: 4,260 – 4,285 SL: 4,300 TP: 4,222 → 4,203 ✅ Condition: Strong bearish candle or rejection signal appears at the FVG zone. ➡️ This setup is for scalping traders or short-term shorts in the unfilled price balance zone. ⚠️ Risk Management Do not FOMO buy when the price has not confirmed the 4,222 zone. If the price breaks below 4,185 → wait for a re-test to continue selling towards the 4,128 zone. Keep moderate volume, as the market is in a rebalancing phase – liquidity remains noisy. 💬 Conclusion Gold is in a transitional phase after a strong decline . The 4,222 – 4,203 USD zone will be key to determining whether the medium-term upward trend continues. If this zone holds, gold is likely to retest the 4,318 – 4,372 USD zone. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Buy reaction at 4,222 – 4,203 USD when confirmed. Technical Sell at FVG 4,260 – 4,285 USD if a clear rejection appears. 🔥 “When the market is unbalanced, the strongest side will leave a mark – and this time, the mark is around the 4,220 USD zone.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
2
Gold Plan | Where will gold drop today?🔍 Market Context Gold continues to maintain a short-term upward trend following a series of Break of Structure (BoS) , confirming active buying from lower zones. Currently, the price is approaching the ATH GOLD zone and heading towards the Liquidity Sell Zone 4,281 USD – a densely liquid area where short-term sell reactions from major players may occur. After a hot rise, technical correction risks are starting to increase. Lower zones like 4,186 – 4,152 – 4,130 USD will be potential “accumulation zones” for institutional buyers in the upcoming pullback. 💎 Technical Analysis ATH GOLD: 4,275 – 4,280 USD Liquidity Sell Zone: 4,281 – 4,285 USD → high liquidity resistance area, may trigger short-term reversal reactions. Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,186 – 4,152 USD → crucial support area in the uptrend, where technical reactions are expected. FVG – BoS Zone: 4,152 – 4,148 USD → “price balance” zone yet to be filled, likely to be retested. OB Deep Zone: 4,130 – 4,120 USD → deep demand zone converging with Fibo 0.786 – ideal area for large capital to re-accumulate. Overall structure remains bullish , but in the premium zone – an area where institutions typically distribute orders to gain liquidity before adjusting. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Main Scenario – Sell reaction at Liquidity Zone 4,281 USD When the price hits the 4,275 – 4,281 USD zone and clear reversal signals appear (rejection candles, bearish engulfing, or minor structure break), → open short-term sell orders (scalp/intraday). Target: 4,186 → 4,152 USD. Stop Loss: above 4,285 USD. ➡️ This is a typical “liquidity sweep – technical reaction” scenario, capitalising on short-term sell-offs at high liquidity peaks. 2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Buy back following the main trend after correction When the price corrects to the 4,186 – 4,152 USD zone or deeper to OB Deep 4,130 USD , and clear upward confirmation signals appear (strong rejection or minor BoS increasing again), → open buy orders in line with the main trend. Target: 4,230 → 4,275 USD. Stop Loss: below 4,120 USD. ➡️ Trend-following scenario – waiting for price correction to discount zones to accumulate in line with the larger trend. ⚠️ Risk Management Do not FOMO buy when the price is hitting the 4,275 – 4,281 USD zone. Prioritise short-term sells with clear confirmations or buys at lower OB zones. Keep light volume when trading against the main trend. Observe reactions at the 4,186 zone – this is the key level of the day. 💬 Conclusion Gold is at the peak of the current rise , short-term profit-taking pressure may appear around the 4,281 USD zone. If strong reactions occur, a correction to the 4,186 – 4,152 USD zone is reasonable for market rebalancing. The larger trend remains upward , so lower OB zones will be reasonable buy opportunities for the next wave. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Sell reaction at 4,281 USD when reversal signals appear. Buy back at 4,186 – 4,152 – 4,130 USD when confirmation signals appear.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Buyers Reclaim Structure, Targeting Liquidity Zone🔍 Market Context After a strong Liquidity Sweep yesterday, gold has rebounded and formed consecutive Break of Structure (BoS) , confirming buyers have regained control. The price has now filled the Fair Value Gap (FVG 4,191 – 4,202) and is heading towards the Sell Liquidity Zone 4,237 – 4,240 USD — a concentration of pending sell orders and stop-losses from previous short positions. The current structure shows strong bullish momentum , however, the possibility of a correction from this high liquidity area is noteworthy. 💎 Technical Analysis Liquidity Sweep: Completed, clearing liquidity below 4,070. FVG (Fair Value Gap): 4,191 – 4,202 → filled, confirming price balance. Sell Liquidity Zone: 4,237 – 4,240 → potential resistance zone, likely strong reaction. OB Zone | Buy: 4,143 – 4,145 → nearby support, expected first reaction when price corrects. OB Deep | Buy: 4,110 – 4,115 → deep demand zone, confluence with Premium Zone 4,156 – 4,118. Overall Structure: The main trend remains bullish , with strong upward momentum but requires a technical correction for re-accumulation. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Main Scenario – Sell reaction at liquidity zone When the price approaches the Sell Liquidity Zone 4,237 – 4,240 USD , observe candlestick reaction (rejection, bearish engulfing). If confirmation signals appear, open a short-term sell order . Target: OB Buy Zone 4,145 → 4,110 USD. Stop Loss: above 4,245 USD. ➡️ This is a liquidity reaction setup, high probability when the market encounters resistance confluence with Fibonacci zone 0.786–1.0. 2️⃣ Alternative Scenario – Buy with trend from OB If the price corrects to the OB Zone 4,143 – 4,145 USD and shows a clear reaction (strong rejection or minor structure break), → a buy with the main trend can be opened. Target: return to 4,200 → 4,235 USD. Stop Loss: below 4,130 USD. If the price drops further, the OB Deep Buy 4,110 – 4,115 USD will be the final “liquidity attraction” zone for a new upward bounce. ⚠️ Risk Management Avoid FOMO buying at 4,200+ as it is near the liquidity resistance zone. Prioritise short-term sell at 4,237 if clear signals are present. When price corrects to OB, wait for reaction before buying, do not bottom fish early. 💬 Conclusion After completing the liquidity sweep, gold has confirmed a return to bullish structure with multiple consecutive BoS. Currently, the price is approaching the liquidity zone 4,237 USD – a short-term correction is highly likely. The 4,145 – 4,110 USD zone will be where buyers await reaction to accumulate orders and continue the medium-term uptrend. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Short sell at 4,237 USD if reversal signals are present. Wait to buy at OB zone 4,145 – 4,110 USD when clear reaction occurs.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
m15 timeframe sees gold drop sharply by 50 points 🔍 Market Context Gold prices have just reached an all-time high (ATH GOLD) around the 4,180 USD mark, following a steep upward rally over several sessions. Immediately after, the market witnessed the first break of structure (BoS) – a sign that the upward momentum is weakening . Currently, prices are returning to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 4,125 – 4,145 USD , and this is likely a liquidity rebalancing phase before prices choose the next direction. 💎 Technical Analysis ATH GOLD: 4,180 – 4,185 USD Fair Value Gap (FVG): 4,125 – 4,145 USD → an empty price zone that needs to be filled. Order Block Buy Zone 1: 4,050 – 4,060 USD → the nearest demand zone, potentially creating the first technical reaction. Order Block Buy Zone 2: 3,980 – 3,985 USD → a deeper demand zone, large liquidity confluence, possibly becoming the main "accumulation point." Overall Structure: After breaking the upward channel, the market is in a retracement phase – the medium-term structure remains bullish . 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Short-term Sell Scenario – filling FVG and technical adjustment If prices continue to test the FVG 4,125 – 4,145 USD zone without surpassing it, → consider a short-term sell to catch the technical retracement phase. Target: the first OB Buy Zone at 4,050 USD . Stop Loss: above 4,155 USD (to avoid being swept above the FVG peak). ➡️ This scenario suits short-term traders following corrective waves – only enter when there is a clear reversal candle confirmation. 2️⃣ Trend-following Buy Scenario – catching the rebound from OB Zone If prices adjust to the 4,050 – 4,060 USD zone, observe reaction signals such as Bullish Engulfing or strong Rejection . Upon confirmation, initiate a trend-following buy order . Target: zone 4,125 → 4,145 USD or the previous peak at 4,180 USD. Stop Loss: below 4,030 USD. If the first OB zone does not hold, the 3,980 – 3,985 USD zone will be an ideal area for long-term "accumulation." ⚠️ Risk Management Avoid FOMO buying at high prices when the FVG is not yet filled. Prioritise trading at clear reaction zones (OB, FVG edge). Reduce volume when entering counter-trend orders to preserve capital. 💬 Conclusion After a steep rise, gold is entering a value rebalancing phase . The current market structure leans towards a short-term technical retracement before continuing the main upward trend. If the 4,050 – 4,060 USD zone reacts well, gold may soon rebound and aim for the 4,150 – 4,180 USD zone. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Short-term sell when price reacts at FVG. Wait to buy at OB Buy Zone when there is a confirmed bullish signal.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Liquidity Cleared, Gold Reloads for the Next Breakout🔍 Market Context This morning, gold price (XAU/USD) experienced a classic liquidity sweep : The price surpassed the previous high of 4058 , touched 4060 , wicked strongly , and short-term corrected – a textbook “liquidity hunt” by major funds. After this drop, the price recovered back to the old ATH zone (4055 – 4060) . This indicates that short-term sellers have weakened , and buyers are reclaiming the crucial structure zone . Therefore, selling strategy is no longer optimal , instead, the market is preparing for a re-accumulation – next breakout. 💎 Technical Analysis Current ATH: 4060 USD Previous High: 4058 USD This morning's liquidity sweep “cleared out” liquidity above, paving the way for a re-accumulation phase before the next rise. The zone 4048 – 4052 is acting as a retest zone – if it holds, this could be the “launchpad” for a breakout to higher price zones. Overall Structure: still bullish , no signs of medium-term reversal. ⚙️ Key Price Zones Retest Zone: 4048 – 4052 → support zone after the sweep, where the price might bounce back. Breakout Zone: 4065 – 4070 → zone confirming buyers regain dominance. Extended Target: 4090 – 4100 USD. Invalidation Zone: below 4040 USD → if breached, the short-term bullish structure will weaken. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Buy Continuation Scenario – Buy with the main trend Wait for the price to retest the 4048 – 4052 zone , observe bullish candle reactions or confirmation signals (Engulfing, Rejection). Open a buy order upon confirmation of holding the support zone. Target: 4065 → 4090 USD. Stop Loss: below 4040 USD. ➡️ This is a trend-following scenario, with the highest probability when the market has completed the liquidity sweep and is re-accumulating. 2️⃣ Buy Breakout Scenario – Buy on confirmed breakout If the price breaks and closes above 4065 , it signals that major funds have returned. Open buy stop or limit retest breakout around 4065 – 4070. Extended Target: 4090 → 4100 USD. Stop Loss: below 4050 USD. ➡️ This scenario suits momentum traders, avoiding the risk of “fake breakout” by waiting for clear confirmation. ⚠️ Risk Management Do not sell against the trend at the ATH zone, as liquidity above has been taken. Maintain reasonable volume when trading around the peak zone. Prioritize buying when there is confirmation of the bullish structure holding the 4050 zone . 💬 Conclusion This morning's liquidity sweep has shaken out weak hands , while helping gold pave the way for the next rise . Currently, the price is re-accumulating around the old peak zone 4055 – 4060 , and if the zone 4048 – 4052 continues to hold, there is a high possibility that gold will break out to the 4090 – 4100 USD zone in the upcoming sessions. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Wait to buy at the support zone or buy when the price breaks above 4065. Avoid selling against the trend now – the risk is very high as major funds have shifted to the accumulation phase.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Sustainable Price Rise: Where’s the Next Optimal Entry?Hello TradingView community! 🚀 Gold (XAU/USD) is in an extremely sustainable upward structure. Instead of lengthy analysis, let's dive straight into the action plan: What is the optimal entry point and what target is Gold aiming for? Check out the details below. 1. Market Structure Analysis: The Strength of the Bulls 🐂 Looking at the chart, the first thing that catches our eye is a series of "BoS" (Break of Structure). Every time Gold breaks an old peak, it not only creates a Higher High but also confirms that the upward trend is very strong and sustainable. This indicates that buying power is completely overwhelming and shows no sign of weakening. Smart Money is continuously pushing the price higher, and our job is to ride this "wave." 2. Potential Buying Zones - Where to Catch the Wave? 🧐 To optimize profits and minimize risks, finding a beautiful entry point after a price correction is extremely important. Based on the chart, we have 2 noteworthy potential buying zones: Buying Zone 1 - Fibonacci Confluence ($3885): This is an extremely ideal "Buy Zone," coinciding with the golden Fibonacci ratio of 0.618. In technical analysis, this is a very strong support level, where prices often tend to reverse and continue the main trend. Professional traders always hunt for pullbacks to this zone. Buying Zone 2 - Exploiting FVG ($3914 - $3933): Slightly higher, we have the FVG (Fair Value Gap) area at $3914 and the "Buy Scalping" zone at $3933. These are "price gaps" created by supply-demand imbalances when prices rise too quickly. The market tends to return to fill these gaps before continuing its journey. This could be an opportunity for those wanting to catch an earlier wave. 3. Target Conquest - What’s Gold’s Next Destination? 🎯 Once we have a buying position, where will our target be? Short-term target: The "Sell Scalping FVG" zone around $3969 could be a minor resistance point where some traders will take profits. Main target: The ultimate destination this structure is aiming for is the "Sell Gold Liquidity" zone at $3998. This is an important "liquidity" area, concentrating many stop-loss orders of the Sellers. Prices are often attracted to these zones like a "magnet" to sweep liquidity before making further moves. Summary & Advice Main trend: UP. Primary strategy: Buy on dip when prices correct to important support zones. Potential buying zones: $3885 (Fibonacci) and $3914 - $3933 (FVG). Price targets: $3969 (short-term) and $3998 (main target). Always remember, risk management is the key to surviving in the market. Set reasonable Stop-loss for all your trades. WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THIS PLAN? Will Gold retrace to the Fibonacci zone $3885 or react right at the FVG zone $3914? Leave your opinions and perspectives in the comments below. We will discuss together to find the best opportunities! 👇 Don't forget to Like 👍 and Follow my TradingView channel to not miss daily Gold analyses!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD Near Record Highs: Key Data AheadGold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – October 3, 2025 1. Macro & News Context Gold is holding near record highs, heading for its seventh consecutive weekly gain, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates and by concerns around the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Spot prices have recently tested the ₹3,890–3,900 region and are now consolidating around ₹3,860. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) – Typically scheduled for 18:00 IST on the first Friday of the month, the September jobs report is likely to be delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown. Key event to watch today: ISM Services PMI (September) will be released at 19:30 IST. Since ISM data is privately produced, it will be published regardless of the shutdown and may serve as the main volatility catalyst in today’s U.S. session. 【ISM】 Labor market signals: Challenger job cut data showed lower layoffs in September, but planned hiring at the lowest level since 2009, reinforcing a softer employment backdrop. Combined with the Fed’s recent 25 bps rate cut (to 4.00%–4.25%), this continues to support the bullish gold narrative. USD trend: The dollar has weakened broadly this week, aligning with market bets on further monetary easing. This backdrop provides an additional tailwind for gold. 2. Technical Landscape (H1 Chart) The attached chart highlights key technical zones and a completed Harmonic XABCD pattern on the 1H timeframe: Support levels: Near-term: ₹3,844–3,841 Deeper: ₹3,827 (intraday pivot), ₹3,792 (strong low) Strategic: ₹3,764–3,770 (Bullish Order Block) Resistance levels: Immediate: ₹3,865 Strong supply: ₹3,880–3,890 (Bearish Order Block) Extended target: ₹3,930–3,940 (Sell Scalping | Fibo zone) Momentum: After bouncing from point D of the harmonic structure, gold has been forming higher lows (HL). Price currently sits above the longer-term moving average and is testing the shorter-term average, suggesting a constructive short-term bias as long as supports hold. 3. Trade Scenarios Scenario 1 – Buy-the-dip (preferred bias) Entry zone: ₹3,844–3,841 Stop loss: Below ₹3,827 (safer: below ₹3,792) Targets: ₹3,865 (first take-profit) ₹3,880–3,890 (major supply) Stretch: ₹3,930–3,940 Rationale: Higher low formation, bullish macro backdrop, aligned with strong weekly uptrend. Scenario 2 – Countertrend short at resistance Trigger zone: ₹3,880–3,890 (Bearish OB) Confirmation: Rejection candles (H15–H1) such as wicks, engulfing, or failed breakout. Stop loss: Above ₹3,895–3,900 (or above ₹3,945 if price spikes into the ₹3,930–3,940 fib zone). Targets: ₹3,865 → ₹3,844 → ₹3,827 Rationale: Potential liquidity sweep ahead of ISM, with profit-taking likely near supply zones. Scenario 3 – Breakdown through support Trigger: 1H close below ₹3,841 Path: ₹3,827 → ₹3,792 (Strong Low) → ₹3,764–3,770 (Bullish OB) Rationale: Loss of intraday structure would flip bias short until major demand zones. 4. How to Trade Around Today’s Data If NFP is indeed delayed, the 18:00 IST slot may bring limited volatility. Focus instead on the ISM Services PMI at 19:30 IST, which could trigger sharp swings in both USD and gold. Adjust position sizing: Expect spread widening and slippage around the release. Reduce leverage or scale into positions. 5. Risk Management Limit risk per trade to 0.5–1% of account equity. Avoid chasing price once levels are tested; wait for H15–H1 candle closes for confirmation. Monitor the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Treasury yields – further dollar weakness would reinforce bullish gold setups. 🔑 Key Takeaway Gold remains structurally bullish in the broader trend, with immediate support at ₹3,841–3,844 critical to maintain upside momentum. Watch for reactions around ₹3,880–3,890 and ₹3,930–3,940. With NFP possibly delayed, the ISM Services PMI at 19:30 IST will be today’s most important catalyst for directional moves.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Gold 30/09 - Safe-haven flows surge | Gold sails toward new ATH 🟡 XAU/USD – 30/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News US Politics : Meeting between Trump and bipartisan leaders ended without agreement → growing risk of a US government shutdown by Wednesday. Conflict : Democrats demand concessions, Republicans fiercely oppose → wide gap remains, both sides blaming each other. Market : Investors watch JOLTS data and speeches from 3 FED members, but political risks are the strongest catalyst for Gold. Trend : Safe-haven flows keep pouring into Gold → increasing likelihood of testing new ATH. ⏩ Captain’s Summary : US political seas are stormy, Gold becomes the fortress of safety. The voyage toward ATH is widening. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (H1) EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) > EMA 89 (red) → bullish trend clearly dominant. Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) Big Volume Dock: 3,827 Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) ATH test: 3,916 – 3,917 Market Structure : Gold broke out strongly, now trading around 3,870. Main trend remains bullish, with 3,842 – 3,827 as key anchor zones. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ✅ Buy (main priority) Buy Zone 2 – Big Volume Entry: 3,827 – 3,824 SL: 3,815 TP: 3,870 – 3,899 – 3,916 ⚡ Sell (short scalp – high risk) Sell Zone – ATH test Entry: 3,917 – 3,920 SL: 3,925 TP: 3,899 – 3,870 – 3,856 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden sails are filled by safe-haven winds, pushing the ship close to ATH. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,842 – 3,827) is the ideal dock for sailors to position Buys. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,916 – 3,920) may unleash violent waves, suitable only for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. If the political storm from Washington breaks out, Gold’s voyage could surpass the peak and expand its horizon.” 📢 If you find the Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the earliest updates. 💬 What’s your view, crew? Will Gold conquer ATH around 3,917 this week?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
H1 bullish momentum intact | Buy 3,792–3,765, target 3,821🟡 XAU/USD – 29/09/2025 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Structure & Trend H1 continues to print consecutive BoS → bullish trend sustained. Price broke the long-term downtrend line and surged to new highs. EMA 34 & EMA 89 both pointing up and below price → confirming short-to-mid-term bullish momentum. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Key Zones Storm Breaker (Sell Zone / ATH test) : 3,818 – 3,821 Golden Harbor (FVG – Buy Zone) : 3,792 – 3,779 OB Harbor 1 : 3,772 – 3,765 OB Harbor 2 (deeper) : 3,731 – 3,724 Core Idea: 3,792 – 3,765 is the main support “cushion” for trend-follow Buys; 3,818 – 3,821 is the wave edge where profit-taking may occur. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – main priority) Buy Zone 1 – FVG (3,792 – 3,779) Entry: 3,792 – 3,779 SL: 3,765 TP: 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821+ Buy Zone 2 – OB1 (3,772 – 3,765) Entry: 3,772 – 3,765 SL: 3,758 (below 3,765) TP: 3,792 – 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821 Buy Zone 3 – OB2 deep (3,731 – 3,724) Entry: 3,731 – 3,724 SL: 3,714 TP: 3,745 – 3,765 – 3,792 – 3,805 ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL – scalp only) Sell Zone – Storm Breaker (3,818 – 3,821) Entry: 3,818 – 3,821 SL: 3,828 TP: 3,805 – 3,796 – 3,792 Breakdown Short (conditional) Only consider Short if H1 closes below 3,724 SL: 3,735 TP: 3,710 – 3,700 – 3,690 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden sails remain filled after consecutive BoS . Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,792 → 3,765) is the anchor dock to board in trend’s direction. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,818 – 3,821) may trigger profit-taking waves – only go Quick Boarding 🚤 if clear signals appear. If the tide drags below 3,724, let the ship retreat to OB2 to gather strength before resuming the northbound voyage.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
1
Gold awaits PCE | EMA squeeze, big waves ahead🟡 XAU/USD – 26/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News Trump : Announced a 100% tariff on branded drugs if not produced in the US → escalating trade tensions. PCE tonight : The FED’s most important inflation gauge, key to shaping October rate cut expectations (current probability 91.09%). The market is in “hold breath” mode, awaiting the PCE spark to decide the next direction. ⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold is squeezed between two winds – short-term EMA pressure and major expectations from PCE. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) remains below EMA 89 (red) → short-term bearish pressure persists, but narrowing gap signals big volatility ahead. Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) 3,738 – 3,730 3,718 3,687 3,651 Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) 3,755 – 3,773 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ⚡ Sell (scalp at resistance) Entry: 3,773 – 3,776 SL: 3,783 TP: 3,755 – 3,745 – 3,734 ✅ Buy (trend-follow priority) Buy Zone 1 (Scalping) Entry: 3,72x – 3,718 SL: 3,710 TP: 3,750 – 3,769 – 3,776 Buy Zone 2 (Deeper OB) Entry: 3,685 – 3,683 SL: 3,675 TP: 3,690 – 3,695 – 3,700 – 3,705 – 3,7xx ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden sails are being squeezed between EMA 34 & 89. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,734 – 3,683) remains the safe dock for sailors to await the big wave. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,773 – 3,776) is raising fierce waves, only suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. Tonight’s PCE will be the decisive wind – either pushing the ship beyond 3,78x or forcing it back to retest 3,72x.” 📢 If you find Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the latest updates. 💬 What do you think? Will Gold break through 3,78x or retest 3,72x first?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – Captain Vincent Weekly Plan🔎 Captain’s Log – Context 📈 Main Trend : Strong uptrend after BoS. 📊 Price moving sideways within the rising channel, staying below Weak High 3674 . 📌 EMA 50 > EMA 200 → bullish trend remains solid. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Golden Harbor (BUY – Main Priority) 🎯 Entry: FVG Dock: 3602 – 3593 FVG Deep: 3567 – 3560 OB Harbor: 3535 – 3540 ⛔ SL: below 3520 ✅ TP1: 3674 (sweep Weak High) ✅ TP2: 3720 – 3740 2️⃣ Quick Boarding (Short-term SELL – Counter-trend) Condition: If price breaks 3674 first → watch for false break. 🎯 Entry: 3670 – 3680 ✅ TP: back to 3602 – 3567 ⚠️ Note : scalp only, don’t hold long. 3️⃣ Storm Breaker Alert (Bearish Scenario) If 3535 breaks → short-term uptrend invalidated. 🎯 Bearish target: 3480 – 3500 Captain’s Note ⚓ “The golden sail still catches the wind after BoS, leading the captain and crew on the bullish tide. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3593 – 3560 – 3535) remains the preferred docking point to load cargo and continue the voyage. Quick Boarding 🚤 at Storm Breaker 🌊 (3670 – 3680) is only a short ride when the ship sweeps liquidity at Weak High 3674 . Should 3535 break, the ship might be dragged toward 3480 – 3500, but as long as it anchors at Golden Harbor, the grand journey still heads north toward 3720+.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAUUSD | FED leaning toward 50bps cut? | Buy strategy at support🟡 XAU/USD – 12/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context The probability of a FED -50bps cut next week has risen to 10.9% (from 8%), while a -25bps scenario is almost certain. US jobless claims rose sharply → reflecting a weakening labor market, reinforcing expectations of FED easing. Tonight (21:00): release of Consumer Sentiment & 1Y–5Y Inflation Outlook (University of Michigan) – data that could further impact the Dollar. ⏩ Captain’s Summary: Dollar weakness + falling bond yields = Gold remains supported to rise. However, short-term pullbacks may appear before breaking higher levels. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone): Weak High: 3675 – 3677 (psychological barrier) Peak Zone: 3676 – 3680 (high test, short-term reversal risk) Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone): FVG: 3603 – 3601 Deep Harbor: 3621 – 3623 Price Structure: On H1, Gold has repeatedly formed BoS and Equal High (EqH) around 3645 – 3650. An FVG appears → sign that price may need to fill the liquidity gap before continuing. Priority scenario: Pullback to 3636 or deeper 3621, then rebound towards 3675 – 3680. If 3680 breaks successfully → opens the way for new ATH above 3700. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Plan ✅ Buy (trend-follow priority) Buy FVG: 3601 – 3603 | SL: 3591 | TP: 3605 – 3610 – 3615 – 3620 – 36xx Buy Zone: 3621 – 3623 | SL: 3612 | TP: 3640 – 3655 – 3665 – 3675 – 368x ⚡ Sell (short-term scalp at resistance) Sell Zone: 3675 – 3680 | SL: 3684 | TP: 3665 – 3655 – 3645 – 36xx ⚓ Captain’s Note “The dovish wind from the FED continues to push the golden sails forward. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3636 – 3621) is the safe docking zone for sailors to gather strength before the new voyage. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3675 – 3680) may create big waves for short Quick Boarding 🚤 , but the main course is still heading North. If the 3680 wave breaks, the golden ship will extend its journey to new peaks above 3700.”
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD – FED, Tariffs & NFP Today | Captain Vincent🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News The probability of a FED rate cut in September has risen to 99.4% (from 96.6%) → almost certain. FED’s Cook is under fraud investigation , combined with weak prior economic data → further strengthens momentum for Gold. US–Japan deal : US reduces chip import tariffs to 15%, in return Japan invests 550B USD + purchases 8B USD in agricultural products. Although positive, it does not change the main outlook as markets remain focused on interest rates & inflation. Trump : Threatens tariffs on all chip/semis companies not entering the US → raises geopolitical concerns. NFP & Unemployment Rate (UR) tonight at 19:30 → key event, may trigger strong volatility. ⏩ Captain’s Summary: Capital flow still leans towards BUY Gold thanks to FED rate cut expectations, but short-term shakeouts may occur before/after the news. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis M30 BOS: Gold has just formed a Break of Structure, overall trend remains bullish. Captain’s Shield (Support): 3484 – 3486 (Main Buy Zone). Storm Breaker (Resistance): 3575 – 3593 (aligned with Fibo 0.5 – 0.618). If it breaks 3591 – 3593 → pathway to new ATH 3608 – 3610 or higher. If it fails at Storm Breaker → price may retest Golden Harbor (3484) before bouncing back. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority) Entry: 3484 – 3486 SL: 3478 TP: 3490 → 3493 → 3497 → 3505 → 35xx ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term) Entry: 3575 – 3577 SL: 3585 TP: 3570 → 3565 → 3560 → 3555 → 35xx 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – Resistance) Entry: 3591 – 3593 SL: 3600 TP: 3588 → 3585 → 3580 → 3575 → 35xx ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden ship sails smoothly as FED is almost certain to cut rates in September. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3484) is the safe anchorage to continue riding the bullish tide. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3575–3593) may create big waves for short Quick Boarding 🚤 , but the main current still carries us North.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent