Captainvincent — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Gold 30/09 - Safe-haven flows surge | Gold sails toward new ATH 🟡 XAU/USD – 30/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News US Politics : Meeting between Trump and bipartisan leaders ended without agreement → growing risk of a US government shutdown by Wednesday. Conflict : Democrats demand concessions, Republicans fiercely oppose → wide gap remains, both sides blaming each other. Market : Investors watch JOLTS data and speeches from 3 FED members, but political risks are the strongest catalyst for Gold. Trend : Safe-haven flows keep pouring into Gold → increasing likelihood of testing new ATH. ⏩ Captain’s Summary : US political seas are stormy, Gold becomes the fortress of safety. The voyage toward ATH is widening. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (H1) EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) > EMA 89 (red) → bullish trend clearly dominant. Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) Big Volume Dock: 3,827 Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) ATH test: 3,916 – 3,917 Market Structure : Gold broke out strongly, now trading around 3,870. Main trend remains bullish, with 3,842 – 3,827 as key anchor zones. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ✅ Buy (main priority) Buy Zone 2 – Big Volume Entry: 3,827 – 3,824 SL: 3,815 TP: 3,870 – 3,899 – 3,916 ⚡ Sell (short scalp – high risk) Sell Zone – ATH test Entry: 3,917 – 3,920 SL: 3,925 TP: 3,899 – 3,870 – 3,856 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden sails are filled by safe-haven winds, pushing the ship close to ATH. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,842 – 3,827) is the ideal dock for sailors to position Buys. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,916 – 3,920) may unleash violent waves, suitable only for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. If the political storm from Washington breaks out, Gold’s voyage could surpass the peak and expand its horizon.” 📢 If you find the Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the earliest updates. 💬 What’s your view, crew? Will Gold conquer ATH around 3,917 this week?

H1 bullish momentum intact | Buy 3,792–3,765, target 3,821 🟡 XAU/USD – 29/09/2025 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Structure & Trend H1 continues to print consecutive BoS → bullish trend sustained. Price broke the long-term downtrend line and surged to new highs. EMA 34 & EMA 89 both pointing up and below price → confirming short-to-mid-term bullish momentum. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Key Zones Storm Breaker (Sell Zone / ATH test) : 3,818 – 3,821 Golden Harbor (FVG – Buy Zone) : 3,792 – 3,779 OB Harbor 1 : 3,772 – 3,765 OB Harbor 2 (deeper) : 3,731 – 3,724 Core Idea: 3,792 – 3,765 is the main support “cushion” for trend-follow Buys; 3,818 – 3,821 is the wave edge where profit-taking may occur. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – main priority) Buy Zone 1 – FVG (3,792 – 3,779) Entry: 3,792 – 3,779 SL: 3,765 TP: 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821+ Buy Zone 2 – OB1 (3,772 – 3,765) Entry: 3,772 – 3,765 SL: 3,758 (below 3,765) TP: 3,792 – 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821 Buy Zone 3 – OB2 deep (3,731 – 3,724) Entry: 3,731 – 3,724 SL: 3,714 TP: 3,745 – 3,765 – 3,792 – 3,805 ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL – scalp only) Sell Zone – Storm Breaker (3,818 – 3,821) Entry: 3,818 – 3,821 SL: 3,828 TP: 3,805 – 3,796 – 3,792 Breakdown Short (conditional) Only consider Short if H1 closes below 3,724 SL: 3,735 TP: 3,710 – 3,700 – 3,690 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden sails remain filled after consecutive BoS . Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,792 → 3,765) is the anchor dock to board in trend’s direction. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,818 – 3,821) may trigger profit-taking waves – only go Quick Boarding 🚤 if clear signals appear. If the tide drags below 3,724, let the ship retreat to OB2 to gather strength before resuming the northbound voyage.”

Gold awaits PCE | EMA squeeze, big waves ahead 🟡 XAU/USD – 26/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News Trump : Announced a 100% tariff on branded drugs if not produced in the US → escalating trade tensions. PCE tonight : The FED’s most important inflation gauge, key to shaping October rate cut expectations (current probability 91.09%). The market is in “hold breath” mode, awaiting the PCE spark to decide the next direction. ⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold is squeezed between two winds – short-term EMA pressure and major expectations from PCE. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) remains below EMA 89 (red) → short-term bearish pressure persists, but narrowing gap signals big volatility ahead. Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) 3,738 – 3,730 3,718 3,687 3,651 Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) 3,755 – 3,773 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ⚡ Sell (scalp at resistance) Entry: 3,773 – 3,776 SL: 3,783 TP: 3,755 – 3,745 – 3,734 ✅ Buy (trend-follow priority) Buy Zone 1 (Scalping) Entry: 3,72x – 3,718 SL: 3,710 TP: 3,750 – 3,769 – 3,776 Buy Zone 2 (Deeper OB) Entry: 3,685 – 3,683 SL: 3,675 TP: 3,690 – 3,695 – 3,700 – 3,705 – 3,7xx ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden sails are being squeezed between EMA 34 & 89. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,734 – 3,683) remains the safe dock for sailors to await the big wave. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,773 – 3,776) is raising fierce waves, only suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. Tonight’s PCE will be the decisive wind – either pushing the ship beyond 3,78x or forcing it back to retest 3,72x.” 📢 If you find Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the latest updates. 💬 What do you think? Will Gold break through 3,78x or retest 3,72x first?

XAU/USD – Captain Vincent Weekly Plan 🔎 Captain’s Log – Context 📈 Main Trend : Strong uptrend after BoS. 📊 Price moving sideways within the rising channel, staying below Weak High 3674 . 📌 EMA 50 > EMA 200 → bullish trend remains solid. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Golden Harbor (BUY – Main Priority) 🎯 Entry: FVG Dock: 3602 – 3593 FVG Deep: 3567 – 3560 OB Harbor: 3535 – 3540 ⛔ SL: below 3520 ✅ TP1: 3674 (sweep Weak High) ✅ TP2: 3720 – 3740 2️⃣ Quick Boarding (Short-term SELL – Counter-trend) Condition: If price breaks 3674 first → watch for false break. 🎯 Entry: 3670 – 3680 ✅ TP: back to 3602 – 3567 ⚠️ Note : scalp only, don’t hold long. 3️⃣ Storm Breaker Alert (Bearish Scenario) If 3535 breaks → short-term uptrend invalidated. 🎯 Bearish target: 3480 – 3500 Captain’s Note ⚓ “The golden sail still catches the wind after BoS, leading the captain and crew on the bullish tide. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3593 – 3560 – 3535) remains the preferred docking point to load cargo and continue the voyage. Quick Boarding 🚤 at Storm Breaker 🌊 (3670 – 3680) is only a short ride when the ship sweeps liquidity at Weak High 3674 . Should 3535 break, the ship might be dragged toward 3480 – 3500, but as long as it anchors at Golden Harbor, the grand journey still heads north toward 3720+.”

XAUUSD | FED leaning toward 50bps cut? | Buy strategy at support 🟡 XAU/USD – 12/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context The probability of a FED -50bps cut next week has risen to 10.9% (from 8%), while a -25bps scenario is almost certain. US jobless claims rose sharply → reflecting a weakening labor market, reinforcing expectations of FED easing. Tonight (21:00): release of Consumer Sentiment & 1Y–5Y Inflation Outlook (University of Michigan) – data that could further impact the Dollar. ⏩ Captain’s Summary: Dollar weakness + falling bond yields = Gold remains supported to rise. However, short-term pullbacks may appear before breaking higher levels. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone): Weak High: 3675 – 3677 (psychological barrier) Peak Zone: 3676 – 3680 (high test, short-term reversal risk) Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone): FVG: 3603 – 3601 Deep Harbor: 3621 – 3623 Price Structure: On H1, Gold has repeatedly formed BoS and Equal High (EqH) around 3645 – 3650. An FVG appears → sign that price may need to fill the liquidity gap before continuing. Priority scenario: Pullback to 3636 or deeper 3621, then rebound towards 3675 – 3680. If 3680 breaks successfully → opens the way for new ATH above 3700. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Plan ✅ Buy (trend-follow priority) Buy FVG: 3601 – 3603 | SL: 3591 | TP: 3605 – 3610 – 3615 – 3620 – 36xx Buy Zone: 3621 – 3623 | SL: 3612 | TP: 3640 – 3655 – 3665 – 3675 – 368x ⚡ Sell (short-term scalp at resistance) Sell Zone: 3675 – 3680 | SL: 3684 | TP: 3665 – 3655 – 3645 – 36xx ⚓ Captain’s Note “The dovish wind from the FED continues to push the golden sails forward. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3636 – 3621) is the safe docking zone for sailors to gather strength before the new voyage. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3675 – 3680) may create big waves for short Quick Boarding 🚤 , but the main course is still heading North. If the 3680 wave breaks, the golden ship will extend its journey to new peaks above 3700.”

XAU/USD – FED, Tariffs & NFP Today | Captain Vincent 🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News The probability of a FED rate cut in September has risen to 99.4% (from 96.6%) → almost certain. FED’s Cook is under fraud investigation , combined with weak prior economic data → further strengthens momentum for Gold. US–Japan deal : US reduces chip import tariffs to 15%, in return Japan invests 550B USD + purchases 8B USD in agricultural products. Although positive, it does not change the main outlook as markets remain focused on interest rates & inflation. Trump : Threatens tariffs on all chip/semis companies not entering the US → raises geopolitical concerns. NFP & Unemployment Rate (UR) tonight at 19:30 → key event, may trigger strong volatility. ⏩ Captain’s Summary: Capital flow still leans towards BUY Gold thanks to FED rate cut expectations, but short-term shakeouts may occur before/after the news. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis M30 BOS: Gold has just formed a Break of Structure, overall trend remains bullish. Captain’s Shield (Support): 3484 – 3486 (Main Buy Zone). Storm Breaker (Resistance): 3575 – 3593 (aligned with Fibo 0.5 – 0.618). If it breaks 3591 – 3593 → pathway to new ATH 3608 – 3610 or higher. If it fails at Storm Breaker → price may retest Golden Harbor (3484) before bouncing back. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority) Entry: 3484 – 3486 SL: 3478 TP: 3490 → 3493 → 3497 → 3505 → 35xx ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term) Entry: 3575 – 3577 SL: 3585 TP: 3570 → 3565 → 3560 → 3555 → 35xx 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – Resistance) Entry: 3591 – 3593 SL: 3600 TP: 3588 → 3585 → 3580 → 3575 → 35xx ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden ship sails smoothly as FED is almost certain to cut rates in September. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3484) is the safe anchorage to continue riding the bullish tide. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3575–3593) may create big waves for short Quick Boarding 🚤 , but the main current still carries us North.”