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Note :
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Chart Patterns
FLAIR LONGThe Elliott Wave Theory's description of the structure and pattern of price movements in financial markets is known as the Elliott Wave Structure.
The Elliott Wave analysis indicates that the stock has completed waves (i),(ii), (iii), and (iv), which are shown as blue numbers on the daily chart. Wave (v) appears to be underway at this time.
It is anticipated that wave (v) will have about five subdivisions shown in red colour.
Wave i and ii in red colour of wave (v) is completed and wave iii in red colour is unfolding.
Wave levels shown on chart.
Level of Invalidation
The Wave (i) has been identified as the invalidation level at 289.9 because wave (iv) do not enter in the wave(i). If the price falls below this level, it can indicate that the expected Elliott Wave pattern is not as it seems.
I am not a registered Sebi analyst. My research is being done only for academic interests.
Please speak with your financial advisor before trading or making any investments. I take no responsibility whatsoever for your gains or losses.
Regards
Dr Vineet
Bajaj Finance: Impulse Complete, Correction in ControlBajaj Finance completed a clean five-wave impulsive advance , topping out near ₹1,102.5 , followed by a clear loss of momentum. Since that peak, price action has shifted from trend to overlap , signaling a corrective phase rather than continuation.
Structurally, the decline is unfolding within a descending channel , fitting well with a W–X–Y corrective structure . The internal swings remain choppy and overlapping — classic correction behavior — with price respecting the channel boundaries so far.
During the impulsive rally ( Waves 1–5 ), the 50 DMA acted as dynamic support , confirming strong upside momentum. Post the top, price has slipped below the 50 DMA and is now oscillating around it, indicating momentum fatigue . A sustained hold below the 50 DMA, combined with a rollover in the average , would reinforce the short-term bearish / corrective bias , with the average potentially flipping into dynamic resistance .
From a price projection perspective, the ongoing Wave Y is favoring a move toward key Fibonacci retracement levels . The 0.618 retracement near ₹945 stands out as a high-probability reaction zone , while a deeper flush could extend toward the 0.786 retracement near ₹903 if downside pressure accelerates.
Risk is clearly defined. A sustained break above the upper boundary of the corrective channel would invalidate the W–X–Y interpretation and signal a structural shift back toward strength . Until then, the path of least resistance remains corrective .
Bottom line:
The impulsive phase is done. The market is digesting gains. Structure — not emotion — favors patience and respect for the corrective channel.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Coal India Ltd (COALINDIA) - Technical Price AnalysisThis analysis outlines key critical levels that, if breached or defended, could signal significant shifts in the stock's trend, moving into either a strong bullish or bearish phase.
🐂 Bullish Scenario : Upside Potential
The stock is considered to enter a confirmed bullish trajectory when it can trade and sustain above the initial breakout level of 359.
Initial Bullish Confirmation (Above 359): A sustained move above $359 (allowing for a slight buffer, perhaps to confirm strength) would likely trigger the first major rallies.
First Target Zone : The immediate upside goals are identified within the range of 443 to 475.
Stronger Bullish Momentum (Above 475): If the price successfully consolidates and moves past the 475 mark, this indicates a significantly strong continuation of the rally.
Secondary Target Zone : The next substantial resistance area would be between 568 and 645.
Long-Term Breakout : Achieving and maintaining levels above 645 would suggest a major structural shift in the stock's valuation.
Extended Targets : The ultimate long-term targets under this powerful bullish impulse are projected to be between 832 and 993
🐻 Bearish Scenario : Downside Risk
The stock's outlook turns bearish if it fails to hold a critical support level, suggesting selling pressure is dominating the market.
Initial Bearish Confirmation (Below 321): The key support level to watch is 321. If the stock closes below 321 (allowing for a buffer) and sustains this for 2-3 trading days, a confirmed bearish trend is established
First Support Test : The immediate downside target after the breach is 281. This level is critical and may attract buyers, potentially leading to a temporary bounce.
Accelerated Bearish Momentum (Below 281): A decisive break and close below 281 would indicate that sellers are firmly in control.
Secondary Support Test : The market would then likely test the next major support around 224.
Last Hope Support : The final significant support level, which represents a crucial long-term floor for the stock, is identified at 181. A break below this point would signal a severe and sustained long-term downtrend.
Note on Buffer Points : The analysis emphasizes the need to consider a small buffer ( a percentage variation) above or below the stated levels. This buffer helps confirm that the move is not just a temporary fluctuation or 'false breakout,' but a genuine change in market sentiment before entering or exiting a position
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
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I am not a SEBI registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk.
Thank you.
IRIS Clothing cmp 35.66 by Weekly Chart viewIRIS Clothing cmp 35.66 by Weekly Chart view
- Support Zone 28 to 31 Price Band
- Resistance Zone 36.50 to ATH 40.71 Price Band
- Volumes above average traded quantity over past 2 weeks
- Darvas Box - Price trending between 30 to 35.50 since June 2025
- Long Bullish Rounding Bottom followed by small one's made within Darvas Box
Part 10 Trade Like Institutions Role of Option Greeks
Option Greeks help traders measure risk:
Delta: Sensitivity to price movement.
Gamma: Rate of change of delta.
Theta: Impact of time decay.
Vega: Sensitivity to volatility.
Rho: Sensitivity to interest rates.
Understanding Greeks enables better strategy selection and position adjustment.
Part 9 Trading master ClassRisk Management in Option Trading
Successful option traders focus heavily on risk control:
Use defined-risk strategies.
Limit position size per trade.
Avoid overleveraging.
Understand option Greeks (Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega).
Maintain discipline with stop-loss and exit rules.
Risk management is often more important than strategy selection.
Part 8 Trading Master Class Rewards of Option Trading
Despite risks, options offer compelling advantages:
a) Limited Risk (for Buyers)
Option buyers know their maximum loss upfront—the premium paid.
b) High Return Potential
Small price movements in the underlying can result in substantial percentage gains.
c) Income Generation
Option sellers can generate consistent income through strategies like covered calls and iron condors.
d) Flexibility
Options allow traders to profit in bullish, bearish, or range-bound markets.
e) Capital Efficiency
Options require lower capital compared to buying underlying assets outright.
NIFTY 50 | Bullish Structure vs Bearish Candles — What Next?Pure Price Action & Volume Study
Index: NIFTY 50
Timeframe: Weekly
Method: Price Action + Volume
🔍 Market Structure
On the weekly timeframe, NIFTY 50 continues to form a VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) — a structurally bullish setup that generally supports higher prices once resolved correctly.
However, recent candle behaviour introduces a clear warning sign.
🕯️ Candlestick + Volume Analysis
The last two weekly candles are Hanging Man formations. Both candles printed with identical weekly volumes (~1.23B). Hanging Man is a reversal pattern when it appears near resistance
Important clarity:
Hanging Man ≠ Hammer
Hammer forms near support (bullish)
Hanging Man forms near resistance (potential weakness)
This suggests supply entering the market despite a bullish broader structure.
⚖️ How to Read the Conflict
Chart pattern: Bullish (VCP intact)
Candlestick signal: Bearish (Hanging Man + matching volume)
When structure and candles diverge, markets often choose sideways or corrective price action before the next directional move.
📉 Probable Price Path
There is a reasonable probability of:
A move back toward 25,700 (low of the recent weekly candle)
Or a deeper retracement into the nearest weekly support zone around 25,300
This pullback could help form a small rounding base, strengthening the existing VCP before another attempt toward 26,000
📊 Bias & Key Levels
View: Bearish → Sideways
Bullish only if:
Price breaks and sustains above ATH 26,325
Preferably with a strong weekly body candle, not a wick-based breakout
Until that happens, upside remains unconfirmed.
🧠 Final Thought
This is a classic “structure vs signal” situation:
Bullish patterns need bearish candles to get resolved first.
Patience is part of price action.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not a trading or investment recommendation. Markets are risky—always manage risk and position size carefully.
👍 If this idea added value, boost it, follow for more pure price-action studies, and comment with the next stock or index you’d like analysed.
Part 7 Trading Master ClassIntermediate Strategies
1. Bull Call Spread
Buying a call at a lower strike and selling another at a higher strike. This reduces cost but limits maximum profit.
2. Bear Put Spread
Buying a higher strike put and selling a lower strike put. It profits from moderate downside movement with controlled risk.
3. Straddle
Buying a call and a put at the same strike and expiry. This strategy profits from high volatility regardless of direction.
4. Strangle
Similar to a straddle but uses different strike prices, making it cheaper but requiring larger price movement.
HUMANITY +600% Setup or Full Breakdown?HUMANITY +600% Setup or Full Breakdown?
Trendline confluence + demand reaction
$H Price has tapped a well-respected ascending HTF trendline and printed a support reaction, maintaining bullish market structure.
Structure intact → higher low holding.
Targets: 0.143 → 0.387 (+627%)
Invalidation: Daily close < 0.046
Bias: Bullish while above trendline.
NFA & DYOR
Part 6 Institutional Trading Common Option Trading Strategies
a) Basic Strategies
1. Long Call
Used when a trader expects strong upside movement. Risk is limited to the premium paid, while reward potential is theoretically unlimited.
2. Long Put
Used when expecting a sharp decline. Risk is limited to the premium, and profits increase as the underlying falls.
3. Covered Call
Involves holding the underlying stock and selling a call option. It generates regular income but caps upside potential.
4. Protective Put
Buying a put option against an existing long position. This acts as insurance, limiting downside risk.
Blue Star LtdDate 14.12.2025
Blue Star
Timeframe : Day Chart
Cmp 1796
Technical :
(1) Have taken swing support at 1713 which can be used for stoploss, short to mid term trades
(2) 1st traget would be 200 ema & if any breakout then 2nd target is symmetrical resistance
(3) If breaks out symmetrical trinagle resistance channel then target is 2028
Fundamental Postives :
(1) Good jump in cash from operating activity despite subude sale growth, cost control perhaps
(2) Roce = 26% & Roe = 20%
(3) Profit growth of 32.2% CAGR over last 5 years
Few Fundamental Concerns :
(1) Stock is trading at 11.9 times its book value
(2) Operating profit margins are 7%-8%
(3) Pressure on EPS gworth from last two quarters
Regards,
Ankur
Part 4 institutional Trading Why Traders Use Options
Option trading serves multiple purposes:
Speculation: Leveraged bets on price direction.
Hedging: Protecting portfolios against adverse price movements.
Income Generation: Earning premiums through option selling.
Risk Management: Structuring trades with defined risk and reward.
Because options can be combined in various ways, traders can design strategies suited for bullish, bearish, or sideways markets.
itcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart: Downtrend Pressure with Early Stab
Trend: BTC is still trading below a clear descending trendline, confirming a broader bearish structure since the mid-year highs. Lower highs and lower lows remain intact.
Price Action: Current price is around $90,160, consolidating after a sharp sell-off in November. This looks like a pause or base-building phase, not yet a confirmed reversal.
RSI (≈44): RSI is below 50, indicating weak momentum, but it has stabilized above oversold territory. This suggests selling pressure is easing, though bulls are not in control yet.
MACD: MACD remains below the signal line, but histogram contraction hints at bearish momentum slowing. A bullish crossover would be an early reversal signal.
Momentum/Volume Indicator: Negative values persist, showing dominant bearish momentum, but the flattening bars imply reduced downside strength.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $95,000–$100,000 (trendline + prior support)
Support: $85,000, then $78,000
Outlook:
BTC is in a bearish-to-neutral transition zone. A daily close above the descending trendline with RSI reclaiming 50 would favor a trend reversal. Failure to hold $85,000 increases the risk of another leg down toward $78,000.
Part 3 Institutional Trading Understanding Option Trading
An option is a derivative financial contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset (such as stocks, indices, commodities, or currencies) at a predetermined price (strike price) on or before a specific date (expiry date).
There are two main types of options:
Call Option: Gives the right to buy the underlying asset at the strike price.
Put Option: Gives the right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price.
The buyer pays a premium to the option seller (writer). This premium represents the maximum loss for the buyer and the maximum gain for the seller.
Key components of options include:
Underlying Asset
Strike Price
Expiry Date
Premium
Lot Size
Intrinsic Value and Time Value
Options derive their value from price movement, volatility, time decay, and interest rates, making them multi-dimensional instruments.
Nifty 50 Price Structure Analysis [15/12/2025: Monday]Top-Down Nifty 50 Price Structure Analysis for 15th of December 2025. The day is Monday.
(1) Monthly Time Frame:
Red paper umbrella or hanging man candle. Long-term bullishness is intact, but short-term confusion continues. It might be a trend exhaustion at the monthly level. But not sure. Major support is at level 25800. Minor support is at level 26000. Major resistance is at level 26200. The view is indecision.
(2) Weekly Time Frame:
Nifty 50 has formed four 4-indecision candles in the last 4 weeks. Trading would be difficult for directional traders. The 3rd week of November was a green spinning top. The 4th week of November was a long-legged doji with a small green body. The 1st week of December was red hanging man. The 2nd week of December was again a red hanging man. Observing the last 2 candles, the hanging man pattern continues. Presently, price is forming a lower lows and lower highs structure. A 4-candle combination pattern shows a sign of a rounding top (a trend reversal pattern). Maybe it's trend exhaustion in the weekly time frame. Last week, the price decisively closed above the level 26000 (a minor support). It seems like the zone (25800 - 25700) is a major support zone. It also seems that the zone (26200 - 26100) is a major resistance zone. Bullish conviction will start the moment the price starts to trade above the level 26200. Bearish conviction will start the moment the price starts to trade below the level 25800. Large wicks are also a sign that bulls are still active. One of the reasons for the rounded consolidation for the past 4 weeks is because of the price has been trading near the previous all-time high (ATH). Presently, both bullish and bearish convictions are missing. The view is indecision.
(3) Daily Time Frame:
Looking at the price structure sonce 01st of December 2025, the price has formed a lower lows and lower highs structure. The last day's candle is green and a breakout from the previous 3-day price consolidation. Also, the price closed above the level 26000. There is no evidence of a higher highs and lower lows structure to execute bullish trades. An unfilled gap is in the zone (25950 - 25900). Thus, the green candle is doubtful. Maybe it's a bull trap. The major resistance zone is (26200 - 26100). The major support zone is (25800 - 25700). Both upmove and down move should be doubted. Bullish or bearish clarity is missing. Lastly, the level 26000 is acting as a make-or-break psychological level. The view is indecision.
(4) 30-Minute Time Frame:
Technically, the market is broken. There is no sign of a clear trend. Complex correction continues. It is difficult to trade during the complex correction. Classical technical patterns like head & shoulder (H&S) and rounded top, everything is getting challenged by the present market scenario. Price is trading above the level 26000. Last week, the price, after breaking level 25900 (the neckline of H&S) again came back to the consolidation zone. Last week price formed a 250-point double bottom consolidation and reversed its down move. An unfilled gap 25950 - 25900 remains. The up move on Friday was not very strong. Presently, every move (bullish or bearish) should be doubted. The view is indecision.
Bullish Scenario Set-Up:
(i) Price sustains above the opening price.
(ii) Price forms a higher highs and lower lows structure above the level 26100, with a promise of breaking out the level 26200.
Bearish Scenario Set-up:
(i) Price sustains below the opening price.
(ii) Price forms a lower lows and lower highs structure below the level 25850 with a promise of breaking down the level 25800.
No Trading Zone (NTZ): (26100 - 25900)
Events:
No expiries on Monday. No high-impact event is there.
Summary of the Trading Plan (Hypothesis and Insights):
(i) Market structure is broken (or cracked). There is no sign of a clear trend (bullish or bearish). Indecision and complex correction continue.
(ii) The view is indecision. This is not the time to indulge in trading till there is price clarity. The scenario is best suited for the non-directional traders.
(iii) Strong resistance is in the zone (26200 - 26100). Up move (bullish conviction) should be doubted till this zone is decisively breached.
(iv) Strong support is in the zone (25800 - 25700). Down move (bearish conviction) should be doubted till this zone is decisively breached.
(v) A small gap in the zone (25950 - 25900) is unfilled. So, price movement should be doubted unless the gap is filled.
(vi) Directional traders have to execute very fast short-term bullish or bearish trades. There is no reason to execute trades with clear conviction and hold trades for a longer time.
(vii) A short-term bullish set-up will occur when the price starts to form a higher-highs and lower-lows structure above the level 26100, with a promise of trading above the level 26200.
(viii) A short-term bearish set-up will occur when the price starts to form a lower-lows and lower-highs structure below the level 25850 with a promise of trading below the level 25800.
(ix) No Trading Zone (NTZ): (26100 - 25900).
(x) Let the price structure form in the first half of Monday. Quality trade execution is possible with structural clarity. Trading in the second half of Monday is a better option. Have patience to form a clear price structure.
(xi) Trade only when either bullish or bearish conditions are fulfilled. Otherwise, don't trade. Remember, not trading is also an extension of trading activity. Protect your resources.
NOTE:
"Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is God. Anything can happen in the markets. Therefore, trade what you see, not what you believe."
Happy Trading!
Retail Trading vs Institutional Trading1. Who Are Retail Traders?
Retail traders are individual participants who trade financial instruments such as stocks, commodities, forex, cryptocurrencies, or derivatives using their own capital. They usually trade through online brokerage platforms and operate independently.
Key Characteristics of Retail Trading
Capital Size: Small to medium. Most retail traders trade with limited funds compared to institutions.
Access to Markets: Via discount brokers, trading apps, and online platforms.
Decision Making: Personal judgment, often influenced by technical analysis, news, social media, and market sentiment.
Time Horizon: Ranges from intraday trading to long-term investing.
Technology: Basic charting tools, indicators, and retail-level analytics.
Retail trading has grown rapidly due to easy internet access, low brokerage fees, mobile trading apps, and financial education available through online platforms.
2. Who Are Institutional Traders?
Institutional traders are large organizations that trade on behalf of clients or for their own accounts. These include mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, banks, proprietary trading firms, and foreign institutional investors (FIIs).
Key Characteristics of Institutional Trading
Capital Size: Very large, often running into millions or billions.
Access to Markets: Direct market access (DMA), dark pools, and over-the-counter (OTC) markets.
Decision Making: Team-based, involving analysts, economists, risk managers, and traders.
Time Horizon: From high-frequency trading (milliseconds) to long-term investing (years).
Technology: Advanced algorithms, high-frequency trading systems, AI models, and proprietary data.
Institutions are the dominant force in most financial markets and are responsible for the majority of trading volume.
3. Capital and Position Size Differences
One of the most significant differences between retail and institutional trading is capital size.
Retail traders typically trade small quantities due to limited funds and higher risk exposure.
Institutional traders trade in large volumes, which can influence price movements, liquidity, and volatility.
Because of their size, institutions must be careful when entering or exiting positions. They often break large orders into smaller ones to avoid moving the market too aggressively, a process known as order slicing.
4. Information and Research Access
Retail Traders
Depend on publicly available information: news, earnings reports, charts, and social media.
Use standard indicators like RSI, MACD, moving averages, and candlestick patterns.
Often react to market news after it becomes public.
Institutional Traders
Have access to deep research, including industry reports, macroeconomic models, and company management interactions.
Employ dedicated research teams and sometimes alternative data such as satellite data, supply chain analysis, or consumer behavior data.
Can anticipate trends earlier due to superior information processing.
This information asymmetry gives institutions a strong edge over retail participants.
5. Trading Strategies and Styles
Retail Trading Strategies
Intraday trading
Swing trading
Positional trading
Options buying (calls and puts)
Momentum and breakout strategies
Retail traders often focus on short-term price movements and technical patterns. Emotional decision-making and overtrading are common challenges.
Institutional Trading Strategies
Long-term portfolio allocation
Arbitrage strategies
Statistical and quantitative trading
Market making
Hedging using derivatives
High-frequency trading (HFT)
Institutions focus heavily on risk-adjusted returns, diversification, and consistency rather than frequent speculative trades.
6. Risk Management Practices
Risk management is another major area of difference.
Retail traders often risk a large percentage of their capital on single trades, sometimes due to lack of discipline or experience.
Institutional traders follow strict risk management rules, including position limits, stop-loss frameworks, portfolio diversification, and regulatory compliance.
Institutions prioritize capital preservation, whereas many retail traders focus primarily on profit, sometimes ignoring downside risk.
7. Emotional vs Systematic Trading
Retail traders are more prone to:
Fear and greed
Revenge trading
Overconfidence after wins
Panic during drawdowns
Institutional trading is largely systematic and rule-based. Decisions are backed by models, committees, and predefined rules, reducing emotional bias.
This psychological discipline is a major reason institutions outperform most retail traders over the long term.
8. Market Impact and Liquidity
Retail traders usually have negligible market impact due to small trade sizes. Their trades rarely move prices significantly.
Institutional traders, on the other hand:
Create liquidity in some cases (market makers).
Cause sharp price movements when large orders hit the market.
Influence trends, breakouts, and major support-resistance levels.
Many price movements that retail traders react to are actually initiated by institutional activity.
9. Costs, Fees, and Execution
Retail traders:
Pay brokerage fees, taxes, and slippage.
Often experience slower execution and wider spreads.
Institutional traders:
Enjoy lower transaction costs due to high volumes.
Get better execution quality and tighter spreads.
Use smart order routing to minimize costs.
Lower costs significantly improve institutional profitability over time.
10. Regulatory Environment
Institutional traders operate under strict regulatory oversight, including reporting requirements, compliance audits, and risk disclosures.
Retail traders face fewer regulations but also have fewer protections in terms of information and execution advantages.
11. Why Retail Traders Often Lose
Studies across global markets show that a large percentage of retail traders lose money. Key reasons include:
Lack of education and realistic expectations
Poor risk management
Emotional trading
Overtrading
Competing against well-capitalized institutions
This does not mean retail traders cannot succeed, but success requires discipline, patience, and continuous learning.
12. How Retail Traders Can Compete Smarter
Retail traders can improve their chances by:
Following institutional footprints like volume, open interest, and price action
Focusing on risk management over profits
Trading fewer, high-quality setups
Avoiding excessive leverage
Aligning trades with higher-timeframe trends
Instead of fighting institutions, smart retail traders try to trade alongside institutional direction.
Conclusion
Retail trading and institutional trading operate in the same markets but under vastly different conditions. Retail traders bring flexibility, speed, and independence, while institutional traders dominate with capital, technology, research, and discipline. Markets are largely shaped by institutional behavior, and retail traders who understand this dynamic stand a better chance of survival and success.
Sensex - Weekly review Dec 15 - Dec 19Friday's movement was choppy, and the price is now testing the intermediate resistance at the 85300 zone. Next resistance is at the 85500 zone.
Buy above 85320 with the stop loss of 85180 for the targets 85460, 85580, 85740, 85900, 86060, 86220, 86400 and 86560.
Sell below 84960 with the stop loss of 85100 for the targets 84840, 84700, 84540, 84400, 84240, 84080 and 83900.
As per the daily chart, the price is testing the trend line, and it has to break and sustain above it.
Always do your analysis before taking any trade.






















