Gold achieves V-shaped reversal as expected📊The weekly level maintains an upward channel, the daily EMA5 (2892) and EMA10 (2885) form a bullish arrangement, and the MACD indicator continues to be blunt above the zero axis. The 4-hour chart shows a top divergence correction, but it has not effectively fallen below the upward trend line. The V-shaped reversal forms a classic short trap (the trading volume is enlarged to 120% of the monthly average)
🔴Upper resistance level: 2908-2912
🟢Lower support level: 2875-2880
✅Trading strategy: sell high and buy low in the volatile range 2880-2908
Chart Patterns
Nifty Long Term ChannelNifty has been in this channel since 1990 & we see a throw over in 2008 when extreme bullishness takes it past the channel top to only see a deep correction.
We are near to channel top again but do we have extreme sentiment on bullish side ?
No rather we have a extreme bearish sentiment so can we see a throw over again in this channel for this bull cycle started from Covid lows of March 2020.
Lets dig some numbers March 2020 Low was 7511
Oct 2021 High was 18604
Net Rise 11093 Points
June 2021 Low was 15183
Add 11093
Sept 2024 High 26277
Now we did to 2 equal rise of 11093 points 1st in 19 Months & second in 27 Months what if the low of 22786 is a major low given the extreme negative sentiment at we are adding another 11093 points from here in next 19 months.
Are we heading to 33900 by Oct 2026 ?
If Nifty closes above 25000 than second hurdle will be ATH at 26277 than we would see fast & furious bull run which could be last leg of this euphoria which gives a throw over on this long term Channel.
DISC : View shared here are for Educational purpose only i am not a SEBI registered analyst please consult your Financial advisor before taking any trades.
Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (L&T) is a potential short candidateA. Breakdown from a Late-Stage Base
Trend: The stock appears to have formed a late-stage base with multiple failed breakout attempts.
Breakdown Confirmation:
The price is trading below key moving averages (50-day, 150-day, and 200-day).
B. Trading Below Key Moving Averages
The stock is currently below the 50-day, 150-day, and 200-day moving averages.
The 50-day (shorter-term trend) has crossed below the 150-day and 200-day MAs, indicating a bearish trend.
C. Weak Bounces & Rally Attempts
There have been failed bounce attempts in previous sessions.
Volume appears low on up days and high on down days, suggesting distribution by institutions.
D. Support Breakdown
The stock is hovering around a major support level (~3,271-3,340 INR).
If this support breaks convincingly on high volume, it could trigger a further sell-off.
Next support level: 3,031 INR (potential profit target).
2. Entry & Risk Management for Short-Selling
Entry:
Ideal entry would be below 3,270 INR with strong selling volume.
A short entry on a weak rally into resistance (~3,340-3,405 INR) could also be considered.
Stop-Loss:
Place a stop above the 50-day MA (~3,502-3,529 INR).
If price reclaims the 50-day MA on strong volume, the short thesis is invalid.
Profit Target:
First Target: 3,031 INR (previous major support).
Extended Target: If it breaks 3,031 INR, further downside is possible.
Aarti Pharmalabs Ltd.: Breakout or Fakeout?Aarti Pharmalabs Ltd. is a prominent player in the pharmaceutical industry, specializing in the manufacturing of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), pharmaceutical intermediates, and xanthine derivatives. The company operates six manufacturing plants and two R&D centers, catering to a diverse range of therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular, anti-asthmatic, anti-cancer, and anti-diabetic segments.
Recent Stock Performance
As of February 12, 2025, Aarti Pharmalabs' stock closed at ₹741.20 on the NSE, marking a 3.26% increase from its previous close of ₹717.85. Over the past year, the stock has demonstrated significant growth, achieving a 52-week high of ₹771.00 and a low of ₹399.55.
Financial Highlights
In the quarter ending December 31, 2024, the company reported a consolidated total income of ₹542.81 crore, reflecting a 17.36% increase from the previous quarter and a 20.60% rise compared to the same quarter the previous year. The net profit after tax for this period stood at ₹73.99 crore.
Key financial metrics include:
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 26.94
Earnings Per Share (EPS): ₹27.51
Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 3.70
Market Capitalization: ₹6,635.64 crore
Dividend Announcement
On February 5, 2025, Aarti Pharmalabs declared an interim dividend of ₹2.5 per share, with a record date set for February 14, 2025.
Operational Developments
In January 2025, the Gujarat Pollution Control Board directed the company to temporarily close its Vapi plant due to environmental concerns. The company has since taken measures to address these issues and has resumed operations at the facility.
Fundamental and Financial Ratios
Profitability Ratios:
Return on Equity (ROE): 12.98% (indicating efficient utilization of shareholder equity to generate profits)
Return on Assets (ROA): 7.97% (showing effective management of assets in generating earnings)
Valuation Ratios:
Sector P/E Ratio: 30.50 (providing a benchmark for comparison with the company's P/E ratio)
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 24.73 (reflecting investor expectations of future earnings growth)
Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 3.32 (indicating market confidence in asset management)
Technical Analysis
From 23rd July 2024 to 6th February 2025, the price was in a consolidation phase between ₹551.05 to ₹721.70, forming a rectangle channel pattern.
On 7th February 2025, the stock broke out of this rectangle channel. If the weekly closing price remains above ₹762, we can expect momentum toward the Resistance ₹871, ₹931, and ₹997.
However, if the price declines after the weekly close of ₹762, we can expect a reversal in the bottom zone at ₹627 to ₹658 level.
Conclusion
Aarti Pharmalabs Ltd. continues to exhibit robust financial performance and strategic growth initiatives. Investors are advised to monitor the company's operational developments and market conditions to make informed decisions.
Ashok Leyland: A Long-Term Bullish SetupTechnical Analysis:
Ashok Leyland has maintained a robust bullish trend for an extended period. Since 2018, the stock faced significant resistance at the ₹160-₹168 level, which acted as a major barrier from 2016 to 2023. In June 2023, this resistance was decisively broken, turning it into strong support and confirming the continuation of the bullish trend.
In 2024, the stock has consistently respected this support level, reinforcing its strength. Today, the stock recorded a trading volume of 36.51 million, the highest in the past six months. This surge in volume indicates strong buying interest, further confirming the ongoing bullish momentum.
Currently, Ashok Leyland has formed a bull flag pattern, a classic continuation setup suggesting potential upward movement. If the flag breakout occurs, we can anticipate a move equal to the pole height of 88 points.
Target Projections:
• First Target: ₹236
• Second Target: ₹260
• Third Target: ₹300
This analysis is based on the weekly timeframe, signifying a strong long-term investment opportunity.
________________________________________
Fundamental Analysis:
Ashok Leyland has announced its Q3 FY24 earnings, demonstrating strong financial performance. The company's total revenue for the quarter stands at ₹12,060 crore, reflecting growth from ₹11,262 crore in Q2 FY24 and ₹11,119 crore in Q3 FY23, showcasing consistent upward momentum.
The company’s expenses for Q3 FY24 amounted to ₹10,938 crore, compared to ₹10,314 crore in Q2 FY24 and ₹10,155 crore in Q3 FY23, indicating effective cost management while maintaining growth.
Additionally, the net profit for the quarter reached ₹820 crore, improving from ₹767 crore in Q2 FY24 and ₹609 crore in Q3 FY23, reflecting a strong profitability trend. The Earnings Per Share (EPS) also improved to ₹2.59, compared to ₹2.40 in Q2 FY24 and ₹1.91 in Q3 FY23, reinforcing investor confidence.
Following the strong Q3 results, the stock surged by 7%, with management emphasizing impressive financial performance and industry-leading margins. Furthermore, the company has successfully eliminated its debt, becoming net cash positive, a significant turnaround from past financial challenges.
Management remains optimistic about future quarters, expecting even better performance and robust international growth prospects.
________________________________________
Financial Performance Overview:
Below is a comparison of key financial metrics for Ashok Leyland across the last quarter and last year (values in ₹ crore):
Revenue Growth: ₹12,060 Cr in Q3 FY24, up from ₹11,262 Cr in Q2 FY24 and ₹11,119 Cr in Q3 FY23.
Increase in Expenses: ₹10,938 Cr in Q3 FY24, compared to ₹10,314 Cr in Q2 FY24 and ₹10,155 Cr in Q3 FY23.
Net Profit Surge: ₹820 Cr in Q3 FY24, higher than ₹767 Cr in Q2 FY24 and ₹609 Cr in Q3 FY23.
EPS Improvement: Earnings per Share (EPS) at ₹2.59 in Q3 FY24, up from ₹2.40 in Q2 FY24 and ₹1.91 in Q3 FY23.
Consistent Growth: Strong performance with a steady rise in revenue, profit, and EPS compared to both QoQ and YoY.
The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a 7.1% increase from Q2 FY24 and an 8.5% year-over-year increase from Q3 FY23. The net profit has grown significantly by 34.6% year-over-year, highlighting strong operational efficiency and financial health. EPS growth further reflects the company’s ability to generate higher returns for shareholders.
________________________________________
Conclusion:
With both technical and fundamental factors favouring the stock, Ashok Leyland presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity. A successful bull flag breakout could drive the stock towards higher levels in the coming months. The company’s improving financials, increasing revenue, and debt-free status further strengthen its investment appeal.
Traders and investors should monitor the breakout levels closely and align their strategies accordingly.
________________________________________
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Investors should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.
Long In SBICARDEntry- 815-818
Stop- 800
Target- 840, 860,
Pattern- Falling trendline BO with a bullish engulfing in 4hr Time frame.
Note- This stock has been underperforming for a long time. It may continue its upward journey
* Please trade carefully seeing the current market structure the trend is to be cautious.
Disclaimer- This is just for education purpose please take advice from your financial advisor before making any decision.
Jai Shree Ram.
CORE CPI DATA NEWS TRADING GOLD WILL HIT THE TARGET OR NOT Ongoing global trade uncertainties, particularly concerns over potential reciprocal tariffs proposed by the U.S., have bolstered gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. As a result, gold prices have seen a slight increase.
Given these mixed signals, the direction of gold prices remains uncertain. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic indicators, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and further statements from Federal Reserve officials, to assess the potential impact on gold. Implementing risk management strategies, including setting stop-loss orders and staying informed about market developments, is advisable to navigate the current volatility.
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Trendline Breakout in ICIL
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
Ashok Leyland: A Long-Term Bullish SetupTechnical Analysis:
Ashok Leyland has maintained a robust bullish trend for an extended period. Since 2018, the stock faced significant resistance at the ₹160-₹168 level, which acted as a major barrier from 2016 to 2023. In June 2023, this resistance was decisively broken, turning it into strong support and confirming the continuation of the bullish trend.
In 2024, the stock has consistently respected this support level, reinforcing its strength. Today, the stock recorded a trading volume of 36.51 million, the highest in the past six months. This surge in volume indicates strong buying interest, further confirming the ongoing bullish momentum.
Currently, Ashok Leyland has formed a bull flag pattern, a classic continuation setup suggesting potential upward movement. If the flag breakout occurs, we can anticipate a move equal to the pole height of 88 points.
Target Projections:
• First Target: ₹236
• Second Target: ₹260
• Third Target: ₹300
This analysis is based on the weekly timeframe, signifying a strong long-term investment opportunity.
________________________________________
Fundamental Analysis:
Ashok Leyland has announced its Q3 FY24 earnings, demonstrating strong financial performance. The company's total revenue for the quarter stands at ₹12,060 crore, reflecting growth from ₹11,262 crore in Q2 FY24 and ₹11,119 crore in Q3 FY23, showcasing consistent upward momentum.
The company’s expenses for Q3 FY24 amounted to ₹10,938 crore, compared to ₹10,314 crore in Q2 FY24 and ₹10,155 crore in Q3 FY23, indicating effective cost management while maintaining growth.
Additionally, the net profit for the quarter reached ₹820 crore, improving from ₹767 crore in Q2 FY24 and ₹609 crore in Q3 FY23, reflecting a strong profitability trend. The Earnings Per Share (EPS) also improved to ₹2.59, compared to ₹2.40 in Q2 FY24 and ₹1.91 in Q3 FY23, reinforcing investor confidence.
Following the strong Q3 results, the stock surged by 7%, with management emphasizing impressive financial performance and industry-leading margins. Furthermore, the company has successfully eliminated its debt, becoming net cash positive, a significant turnaround from past financial challenges.
Management remains optimistic about future quarters, expecting even better performance and robust international growth prospects.
________________________________________
Key Highlights – Q3 FY24 Financial Performance
Revenue Growth: ₹12,060 Cr in Q3 FY24, up from ₹11,262 Cr in Q2 FY24 and ₹11,119 Cr in Q3 FY23.
Increase in Expenses: ₹10,938 Cr in Q3 FY24, compared to ₹10,314 Cr in Q2 FY24 and ₹10,155 Cr in Q3 FY23.
Net Profit Surge: ₹820 Cr in Q3 FY24, higher than ₹767 Cr in Q2 FY24 and ₹609 Cr in Q3 FY23.
EPS Improvement: Earnings per Share (EPS) at ₹2.59 in Q3 FY24, up from ₹2.40 in Q2 FY24 and ₹1.91 in Q3 FY23.
Consistent Growth: Strong performance with a steady rise in revenue, profit, and EPS compared to both QoQ and YoY.
The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a 7.1% increase from Q2 FY24 and an 8.5% year-over-year increase from Q3 FY23. The net profit has grown significantly by 34.6% year-over-year, highlighting strong operational efficiency and financial health. EPS growth further reflects the company’s ability to generate higher returns for shareholders.
________________________________________
Conclusion:
With both technical and fundamental factors favouring the stock, Ashok Leyland presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity. A successful bull flag breakout could drive the stock towards higher levels in the coming months. The company’s improving financials, increasing revenue, and debt-free status further strengthen its investment appeal.
Traders and investors should monitor the breakout levels closely and align their strategies accordingly.
________________________________________
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Investors should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.
SELL for US30 – Target 43,000 - 43,300 by the End of the Week
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) has formed a bearish structure on the 4H timeframe, signaling a potential decline toward the 43,000 - 43,300 zone by the end of this week and Early Next Week. The chart highlights key technical resistance levels and a downside Fibonacci extension target, supporting a short position.
Technical Analysis
Bearish Indicators
Rejection at Key Resistance (44,650 - 44,892)
US30 failed to break above 44,650 - 44,892, confirming a bearish rejection.
The price is struggling near the EMA 33 high (44,600), indicating weakness.
Bearish Fibonacci Setup
The price has broken below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous rally.
The 1.618 Fibonacci extension projects a downside move toward 43,253.
Bearish Volume Confirmation
A large bearish volume spike confirms strong selling pressure.
This suggests institutional traders are offloading long positions.
EMA Resistance & Breakdown Pattern
The price is trading below the short-term EMAs (44,600 & 44,426), acting as dynamic resistance.
A potential bear flag breakdown is forming, increasing downside risk.
Trade Setup – Short Position
📉 Sell Entry: 44,450 – 44,560
🎯 Take Profit (TP):
Target 1: 43,781 (first major support)
Target 2: 43,300 (end-of-week target)
Final Target: 43,000 (extended bearish move)
🔴 Stop Loss (SL): 44,900 (above resistance)
Gold Price Today: Sharp Drop Followed by a Sudden SurgeLast night, the global gold price briefly dropped to 2,865 USD/ounce, but it quickly surged back to 2,905 USD/ounce by the morning of February 13, 2025, driven by an increase in demand for safe-haven assets. The initial drop in gold prices was triggered by inflation data from the U.S., with the January 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.3%, sparking concerns about the FED's ability to maintain low interest rates. This information dampened expectations of a rate cut, putting pressure on the gold market. However, despite a slight sell-off, concerns about rising inflation and geopolitical tensions continue to fuel strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
The recovery in gold prices indicates that investors still trust the value of this precious metal as a hedge against global economic instability. From a technical chart perspective, gold is currently supported by the 2,879 USD/ounce level, setting the stage for a potential upward trend. The next target is to challenge the resistance level of 2,933 USD/ounce. If gold surpasses this level, it could quickly move toward the 2,950 USD/ounce mark. Breaking through the 2,933 USD/ounce resistance would open the door for a stronger rally in the short term, pushing gold toward higher levels and solidifying its position as an essential safe-haven asset in investment portfolios.
CHFJPY - TIME FOR A LONG ENTRYSymbol - CHFJPY
CMP 167.28
CHFJPY is currently trading within a key support zone, which has been acting as a major support area since November 2023. This level has provided a solid foundation for price action, and its importance in maintaining the current bullish trend cannot be understated.
In my analysis, CHFJPY is presenting a good opportunity to initiate long positions at this juncture. The current price level appears to be well-positioned for upward movement, making it an ideal entry point for traders looking to capitalize on potential gains.
However, there are critical levels to monitor for the potential shift in trend. A breakdown below the 166.30 area could prompt further selling pressure, and a sustained move below 165 would confirm the transition from a bullish to a bearish trend. In such a scenario, a retest of this breakdown level would provide a viable short trade opportunity.
On the other hand, in the case of a recovery, which I am expecting, CHFJPY could see a rise toward the 169.20 and 170.30 levels. These levels represent key resistance points, and a successful breach of these zones could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
Key Resistance levels: 169.00, 170.30
Key Support levels: 167.20, 166.30
ABFRL - Expecting more fall from this point nowAs expected & explained in my Jan 22nd analysis that stock would not go upside beyond 288
It tried twice but finally resisted and fell
And while falling it now broke important support area near 260-62
So now when its pulling back, it is expected to repeat previous pattern and resist the area of 260 - 62
As it is now the new resistance as well as the flip zone, so the changes are very high
Downside 1st stop can be expected at 250 at the least, further will update, when time arrives
#Nifty directions and levels for February 13th:Good morning, Friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for February 13th:
Market Overview
The global market continues to maintain a bullish sentiment (as indicated by the Dow Jones), while the local market is showing a moderately bullish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slight gap-up, as the GiftNifty signals a positive move of 60 points.
In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty experienced a solid pullback. Despite the pullback, we are still in a bearish trend in the larger picture, so some seller dominance is possible.
> If the market pulls back strongly and breaks the immediate resistance effectively, we can expect the pullback to continue.
>On the other hand, if it rejects around the immediate resistance level, the market could consolidate within the previous day's range with a bullish bias.
Apart from this, the levels and directions are shared in the chart. Please check the chart for more details.
Have a nice day!
#Banknifty directions and levels for February 13th:Good morning, Friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for February 13th:
Market Overview
The global market continues to maintain a bullish sentiment (as indicated by the Dow Jones), while the local market is showing a moderately bullish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slight gap-up, as the GiftNifty signals a positive move of 60 points.
In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty experienced a solid pullback. Despite the pullback, we are still in a bearish trend in the larger picture, so some seller dominance is possible.
> If the market pulls back strongly and breaks the immediate resistance effectively, we can expect the pullback to continue.
>On the other hand, if it rejects around the immediate resistance level, the market could consolidate within the previous day's range with a bullish bias.
Apart from this, the levels and directions are shared in the chart. Please check the chart for more details.
Have a nice day!
Bank nifty trades and targets for - 13/2/25Hello Everyone. The market was in a bullish mode today. If the market opens flat then we can see continuation of trend. If it opens gap up then we need to see the resistance level to break before looking for CE trades. If it opens gap down then look for PE trades after support zone is broken. Let the market settle in first 15 to 30 minutes then look for directional trades. Book profits every 100 points as we are getting very few trending moves.