MARKET CONTEXT BTC H1 I NOV.221. Market Overview
Main Trend: BTC is currently in a correction phase following the drop from the highs (92,000+ area). Price is moving sideways within a wide range defined by the Volume Profile.
Current Position: Price is trading around $83,959, positioned just below the POC (Point of Control) and below the Daily Open ($85,054). The fact that price is below the daily open suggests that selling pressure is slightly dominant in today's session.
Trendline Structure: There is a descending trendline (dashed black line) connecting lower highs. The price attempted a breakout above this line but is currently showing signs of a retest or potentially a weakness (fakeout).
2. Price Action Analysis
Key Resistance Zones:
POC Zone (84,250 - 85,054): This is the area with the highest traded volume. Price is currently stuck right below this zone. Specifically, the $85,054 (Daily Open) level is a critical barrier. If BTC fails to reclaim this, the short-term bearish trend will continue.
VAH Zone (87,764 - 87,983): This is the extended target if the Bulls manage to regain control (Value Area High).
Key Support Zones:
Descending Trendline: Price is retesting this breakout line (around the 83,000 - 83,500 area).
VAL Zone (81,329 - 81,441): This is the Value Area Low. This serves as the final line of defense for buyers before prices potentially drop deeper.
3. Price Scenarios & Signals
Given the price location relative to the POC and Trendline, there are two main scenarios for today:
Scenario 1: Bearish Rejection (High Probability)
Since the price is below the Daily Open and struggling at the POC, bears are trying to push the price lower.
Development: Price rallies slightly to the 84,200 - 84,500 area but gets rejected, leaving long upper wicks or large bearish candles. Price then slips back below the descending trendline.
Signal: A 1H candle close below 83,500.
Targets:
TP1: 82,500
TP2: 81,441 (VAL Zone). If this level breaks, price will look for lower liquidity (79k-80k).
Scenario 2: Bullish Reclaim
For this scenario to play out, strong buying power (Volume) is needed to break the current indecision.
Development: Price bounces strongly from the current trendline, piercing through the POC zone and closing firmly above the Daily Open.
Signal: A decisive 1H candle close above 85,100 (clearing both Daily Open and POC).
Targets:
TP1: 86,500
TP2: 87,764 - 87,983 (VAH Zone).
4. Summary
The current status of BTC is Neutral leaning Bearish (Bearish Bias) in the short term (intraday) because the price is trading below the key equilibrium zone (POC) and the Daily Open.
"Kill Zone" (Watch Area): 84,000 - 85,000. This zone will decide the trend for the day.
Recommended Action:
Short: Look for reversal/rejection signals around 84,500 or if the price breaks back down below the trendline at 83,500. Stop loss above 85,200.
Long: Only enter if the price confirms a breakout above 85,100 (Reclaim POC) or wait to buy the dip at the hard support of 81,441 (VAL) if a reversal signal appears there. Avoid Longing in the current "middle of nowhere" zone.
Disclaimer: The analysis and information provided above are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and take full responsibility for your trading decisions.
