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AVANTIFEED: Breaking out of Sym. Triangle, Chart of the WeekNSE:AVANTIFEED Breaking the Triangle: How Avanti Feeds is Positioned to Ride the Shrimp Export Wave Despite US Tariff Headwinds after Posting Strong Q2 FY26 Numbers. Lets Analyse in Chart of the Week. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. Price Action Analysis: Historical Price Journey: - 2021-2022: Strong rally from 360 levels to 750 zone - 2023: Consolidation and correction to 350-400 range - 2024: Strong recovery rally pushing to new all-time highs near 964.20 - 2025: Symmetrical triangle consolidation followed by recent breakout Current Price Behavior: - Recent breakout candle shows strong buying with minimal upper wick - Trading at 861.20 with +14.51% gain indicates momentum strength - Price approaching previous resistance zones that could act as supply Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Characteristics: - Recent breakout accompanied by 9x surge in volumes (19.86M vs average) - Volume expansion during rally phases from 2023-2024 shows institutional accumulation - Volume spikes at key support levels during consolidation indicate buying interest - Current volume profile suggests smart money participation Volume-Price Correlation: - Strong positive correlation during uptrends (2023-2024 rally) - Declining volume during consolidation phase typical of healthy correction - Recent volume breakout confirms bullish sentiment reversal Symmetrical Triangle Formation (2024-2025): - The stock has been consolidating in a clear symmetrical triangle pattern since reaching its 52 Week high of 964.20 in early 2025 - Lower highs connecting from 964.20 level and higher lows forming from 630.00 support zone - Triangle apex converging near current price levels, indicating an imminent breakout - Pattern duration: approximately 12 months, suggesting significance of upcoming move - Recent price action shows a breakout attempt with strong volume support Broke Symmetrical Triangle with Strong Volumes: - Current price at 861.20 (as of November 21, 2025) shows +14.51% gain with volume surge to 3.9M shares - Volume expansion at 19.86M significantly exceeds average, validating breakout - The breakout has occurred with conviction, supported by high trading activity Key Technical Levels: Support Zones: - Primary Support: 680.00 - 700.00 (recent consolidation base) - Secondary Support: 630.00 (lower triangle trendline) - Critical Support: 570.00 (psychological and structural level) - Ultimate Support: 470.00-510.00 (2024 demand zone) Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: 860.00 (swing high zone) - Major Resistance: 920.00 - 964.20 (all-time high region) - If ATH breaks, next targets: 1,000.00 and 1,100.00 Base Formation: - A strong base has been established between 630.00 to 760.00 through 2025 - Multiple retests of lower support levels throughout the year have strengthened the base - Base duration of 10-12 months provides solid foundation for next leg up Trend Analysis: Long-term Trend (Weekly/Monthly): - Primary uptrend intact despite year-long consolidation - Price remains well above rising 200-week moving average - Higher lows pattern from 2022 onwards indicates bullish structure Medium-term Trend (Daily): - Breaking out of consolidation range with strong momentum - Upper triangle trendline resistance conquered - Price action suggesting potential trend reversal from sideways to bullish Short-term Momentum: - Sharp upward move with strong candles indicating buying pressure - Current momentum favors bulls with potential for continuation Fundamental & Sectoral Backdrop: Company Overview & Business Segments: Core Business Operations: - India's leading shrimp feed manufacturer with integrated operations - Two primary divisions: Shrimp Feed Division and Shrimp Processing & Export Division - Market capitalization: Rs 9,633 crores (approximately $1.15 billion) - Strategic partnership with Thai Union Group (Thailand) - minority stake holder Production Capacity & Scale: - Annual shrimp feed manufacturing capacity: 775,000 metric tons (largest in India) - Shrimp processing capacity: Producing 28,000 metric tons annually - Multiple manufacturing facilities across coastal states - Hatchery division with capacity of 600 million post-larvae Recent Financial Performance: Q2 FY26 Results (Quarter Ended September 2025): - Consolidated Net Profit: Rs 153.29 crores (up 34.88% YoY, down 14.02% QoQ) - Net Sales: Rs 1,609.69 crores (up 18.79% YoY, flat 0.21% QoQ) - Operating Performance shows mixed signals with YoY growth but QoQ softness - EPS: Rs 11.25 (vs Rs 8.34 in Q2 FY25) H1 FY26 Performance (Six Months Ended September 2025): - Total Income: Rs 3,316.11 crores (up 13.11% YoY) - Net Profit: Rs 331.57 crores (up 37.09% YoY) - EPS: Rs 24.34 (vs Rs 17.75 in H1 FY25) - Strong first-half performance despite challenging conditions Segment Performance Highlights: - Shrimp Feed Division: Facing margin pressure from rising raw material costs (fishmeal, soybean meal) - Shrimp Processing Division: 62% YoY growth in gross income for Q2 FY26, driven by diversification and favorable forex rates - Profit Before Tax (PBT): Rs 227 crores in Q2, down 8.83% QoQ indicating margin compression Key Financial Metrics & Valuation: Profitability Ratios: - Return on Equity (ROE): 18.88% - well above industry average - Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): 65.44% - exceptional capital efficiency - Operating Margin: Declining by 126 basis points QoQ in Q2 FY26 - Net Profit Margin: 10.5% (Q2 FY26) Balance Sheet Strength: - Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Negative -0.69 (debt-free, net cash position) - Fortress balance sheet with zero debt burden - Strong working capital position despite rising debtor turnover pressures Valuation Metrics: - Current P/E Ratio: 19x - Price-to-Book Value: 3.90x (reasonable given high ROE) - Dividend Yield: 1.05% - Latest Dividend: Rs 9.00 per share (August 2025), payout ratio of 23.19% Quality Indicators: - Consistent dividend payer with conservative payout ratios - High ROCE indicates superior capital allocation - Zero leverage provides financial flexibility and risk cushion Sectoral Landscape - Indian Aquaculture & Shrimp Industry: Market Size & Growth Trajectory: - Indian Shrimp Market: Valued at $9.2 billion in 2024, projected to reach $22.7 billion by 2033 (CAGR: 10.1%) - Indian Shrimp Feed Market: $2.0 billion in 2024, expected to grow to $7.4 billion by 2033 (CAGR: 15.7%) - India Aquafeed Market: $3.51 billion in 2024, projected at $6.40 billion by 2032 (CAGR: 7.8%) - India ranks as second-largest shrimp producer and exporter globally after Ecuador Production & Export Statistics: - FY24 Seafood Exports: Rs 60,523.89 crores (1.78 million metric tons), up 2.67% in volume - Frozen shrimp accounts for 66.12% of export earnings and 40.19% of export volume - India shipped seafood worth approximately $7.4 billion last fiscal year - Production volumes show resilience despite global headwinds Key Export Markets (Traditional): - United States: Largest market, historically accounting for 40-50% of exports - China: Second-largest market with 451,000 MT ($1.38 billion) - Japan: Third major destination - Other significant markets: Vietnam, Thailand, EU (Belgium, Spain), Canada, UAE, Italy Domestic Market Dynamics: - 72.1% of Indian population (967 million individuals) include fish in their diet - Growing domestic consumption driven by health awareness and rising incomes - Shift toward value-added products (ready-to-cook, processed seafood) Major Industry Challenges & Headwinds: US Tariff Crisis: - August 27, 2025: US imposed 50% reciprocal tariff on Indian shrimp imports (25% base + 25% penalty) - Combined with existing duties: Anti-dumping (3.96%), Countervailing duty (5.77%) - Total effective duty burden: 58.26% on Indian shrimp exports to US - August 2025 impact: Indian shrimp exports to US collapsed 43% YoY to 16,495 MT - Total Indian export volumes fell 9% YoY in August 2025 Cost Pressures: - Rising raw material costs for feed production (fishmeal, soybean meal) - Increasing labor and energy costs impacting margins - Competition from Ecuador in US market, especially in headless shell-on segment - Global oversupply situation causing price depression Disease & Environmental Risks: - Disease outbreaks remain persistent risk in aquaculture - Climate change and water quality challenges - Regulatory compliance and sustainability certification requirements Emerging Opportunities & Positive Catalysts: Posted Strong Q2FY26 Numbers Despite US Tariff: - Despite 50% US tariff headwinds, company posted 34.88% YoY profit growth - Revenue growth of 18.79% YoY demonstrates resilience - Shrimp processing division grew 62% YoY, offsetting feed segment pressures - Management successfully diversifying away from US market dependence China Seafood Export Ban Can Benefit Indian Exporters: - China banned all Japanese seafood imports (November 2025) amid diplomatic tensions - This creates substantial market opportunity for Indian seafood exporters - Indian companies can fill supply gap in massive Chinese market - China already importing 12,190 MT from India in August 2025, up 33% YoY - Market diversification reducing US dependency from 48% toward 30-35% Government Support & Policy Initiatives: - Union Budget 2025: Proposed 5% Basic Customs Duty on key feed production inputs (down from higher rates) - Rs 4.5 lakh crore support package for export sectors including seafood - Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana (PMMSY): Rs 2,352 crores allocated (56% increase) - Department of Fisheries budget: Rs 2,616.44 crores (54% increase YoY) - Government targeting $14 billion+ seafood exports by 2025 - Fishery Infrastructure Development Fund (FIDF) for modernization Market Diversification Strategy: - Companies actively expanding presence in EU, Middle East, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea - Vietnam, Thailand, Canada becoming key alternative markets - Development of value-added products commanding higher margins - China emerging as third-largest market for Indian shrimp after US and Europe Technology & Innovation Adoption: - Advanced breeding techniques producing disease-resistant varieties - Biofloc technology and Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RAS) improving efficiency - Precision feeding technologies enhancing feed conversion ratios - Integration of probiotics and functional ingredients in feed formulations - Cold chain infrastructure growing 15-30% annually Product Portfolio Expansion: - Avanti Feeds launched new pet food products receiving positive market acceptance - Shift toward value-added products: cooked, breaded, marinated offerings - Value-added exports up 27% year-to-date despite overall volume pressure - Premium products targeting European and Asian markets Structural Competitive Advantages: - Zero-debt balance sheet provides flexibility during market disruptions - Highest feed manufacturing capacity (775,000 MT) among Indian players - Integrated operations from hatchery to processing create vertical synergies - Strong R&D capabilities and partnerships (Thai Union Group) - Established distribution networks and brand recognition Ecuador Supply Disruptions: - Ecuador facing energy rationing issues disrupting shrimp production - May redirect global buyers toward Indian suppliers - Potential to strengthen pricing power and market share gains - Ecuador's challenges provide tactical advantage for Indian exporters Sustainability Certifications & Premium Markets: - Growing demand for certified sustainable seafood (BAP, ASC standards) - Indian producers investing in traceability and quality systems - Access to premium European markets requiring strict compliance - Competitive advantage in environmentally-conscious consumer segments Competitive Positioning: Market Leadership: - Avanti Feeds ranked #1 in Indian shrimp sector by production and revenue - Feed manufacturing: 775,000 MT capacity (largest) - Shrimp production: 28,000 MT annually - Revenue: EUR 615 million (Rs 5,500+ crores) for FY 2022-23 Key Competitors: - Devi Sea Foods: #2 ranked, EUR 391 million revenue, 52,000 MT shrimp production, 300,000 MT feed capacity - Waterbase Limited: Major player with diversified operations - Coastal Corporation: Expanding China presence, up 5% recently on China opportunity - Apex Frozen Foods: Strong Q2 with positive earnings surprise Industry Consolidation Trends: - Top 19 players dominating production and processing - Increasing entry of multinational companies through JVs - Consolidation driven by scale requirements and technology investments Risk Factors & Concerns: Short-term Challenges: - US tariff situation remains fluid; potential for escalation to full 50% or negotiation down to 15% - Sequential margin compression (Q2 vs Q1) indicates near-term profitability pressure - Raw material cost inflation continuing into FY26 - Working capital pressures with rising debtor turnover ratio Medium-term Uncertainties: - Global shrimp prices at lowest inflation-adjusted levels since 2020 - Industry growth stagnation: India's peak exports in 2021 (704,160 MT) not yet regained - Competitive intensity from Ecuador, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia - EU and other markets may also impose trade restrictions Operational Risks: - Disease outbreaks can rapidly impact production - Water quality and environmental compliance requirements - Climate-related risks (extreme weather, temperature variations) - Forex volatility impacting export realizations Strategic Concerns: - Slower than expected market diversification progress - Dependence on commodity shrimp prices - Shift to Black Tiger (Monodon) from Vannamei faces adoption challenges - Pet food venture in highly competitive market against established players like Mars Bull Case Scenario: Technical Setup: - Clean breakout from year-long symmetrical triangle with high volume - If momentum sustains, targets of 860, 920, and new highs above 1,000 are achievable - Strong base formation provides downside support Fundamental Strengths: - China-Japan seafood ban creates immediate export opportunity - Government support package and duty cuts improve cost structure - Debt-free balance sheet provides safety margin - Exceptional ROCE (65.44%) and ROE (18.88%) demonstrate operational excellence - Valuation attractive at 16.26x P/E with 9.7% discount to industry Growth Drivers: - Shrimp feed market growing at 15.7% CAGR through 2033 - Market diversification reducing US exposure from 48% to 30-35% - Value-added product strategy improving margins - Capacity leadership position (775,000 MT feed) creates moat Bear Case Scenario: Technical Risks: - Failure to hold above 700 support could trigger return to triangle - Overhead resistance at 860-920 zone may cap upside - Volume sustainability crucial; fading volumes could signal false breakout Fundamental Concerns: - Sequential profit decline (Q2 vs Q1) signals margin pressure - US tariffs may worsen if no trade deal materialized - Global shrimp prices at multi-year lows (inflation-adjusted) - Raw material cost inflation squeezing feed margins - Industry growth stagnation since 2021 peak Structural Headwinds: - Mature business with 5-year sales CAGR of only 7.5% - Intense competition from Ecuador in key US market - Working capital pressures building (deteriorating debtor turnover) Key Monitorables: Quarterly Metrics: - Feed sales volumes and pricing trends - Shrimp processing margins and export realizations - Geographic revenue mix (US vs other markets) - Raw material cost trends (fishmeal, soybean meal) Market Developments: - Progress on US-India trade negotiations (tariff reduction to 15%?) - China market penetration success metrics - Ecuador supply situation and competitive dynamics - Government policy implementation and subsidy flows Technical Levels: - Sustenance above 700 crucial for bullish structure - Volume patterns on approach to 860-920 resistance - Any breakdown below 630 would be major warning sign My 2 Cents: The technical breakout from the symmetrical triangle, combined with the China-Japan seafood ban opportunity, creates an interesting risk-reward setup. The company has demonstrated resilience by posting strong YoY numbers despite the US tariff shock. However, the sequential margin compression and global shrimp price weakness remain concerns. The debt-free balance sheet and exceptional capital efficiency metrics (65% ROCE) provide a strong safety cushion. Market diversification efforts are progressing, though slower than ideal. The 15.7% CAGR expected in the shrimp feed market through 2033 provides secular tailwinds. From a technical perspective, the stock needs to sustain above 700 and break through 860 with volume to confirm the bullish breakout. The year-long consolidation provides a solid base, but overhead supply at 860-920 could test conviction. So Avanti Feeds presents a compelling case of a fundamentally strong company navigating through short-term headwinds while benefiting from emerging opportunities. The technical breakout aligns with positive fundamental catalysts (China ban on Japan, government support), though execution challenges and margin pressures remain. The company's market leadership, zero-debt status, and superior returns metrics make it a quality play on India's growing aquaculture story. Investors should monitor the sustainability of the technical breakout, progress on market diversification, and margin trajectory in coming quarters. The current setup offers an asymmetric opportunity with defined risk. Full Coverage on my Newsletter this Week Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:AVANTIFEEDLong
by Karanshah137
5
Bitcoin’Smart Money Setup: $80K Drop Before $108K Rebound!Bitcoin is currently trading near $102,000 after showing multiple signs of exhaustion at the top. I expect BTC to drop toward the $80,000 zone — this will likely act as a liquidity grab or a correction phase. From there, a short-term bounce toward $108,000 could trap late buyers before the major macro downtrend begins. Next year, Bitcoin may form its final cycle bottom near $50,000, where long-term accumulation could restart. This setup reflects a smart money distribution pattern — first a correction, then a fake rally, and finally a deeper decline. 📊 Levels to Watch: Short-term Target: $80,000 Reversal Bounce: $108,000 Long-term Bottom: $50,000
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by sushilrawat
2
$BTC STANDING ON ITS LAST SUPPORT: READ THIS BEFORE YOUR TRADEBITCOIN TECH UPDATE — FRESH LEVELS, FRESH PAIN CRYPTOCAP:BTC just dumped to $80,641, making a new low since 12 April 2025. That’s almost -30% from my Short + Exit levels. Those who Rode the Short, Enjoy the profits. Those who avoided chasing above $120k, capital saved again. Where We Stand Now Bitcoin is sitting exactly on the 0.786 Fib ($83,300), the strongest bullish support left on the chart. This level = Bulls’ last hope. If daily candle doesn’t close below $83,300, then expect a relief rally into upside inefficiencies: Upside Targets (If 0.786 Holds) $88,600 → major unfilled FVG $93,000 → bearish Order Block (high probability fill) $98,000 → another upside FVG waiting to be delivered Watch how price behaves at these levels — next macro move will be decided there. If 0.786 Fib Breaks… Be ready. Next liquidity pools: $73,000 / $66,000 Both zones have massive bullish orderflow waiting. If 0.786 support holds → BTC still has high probability to push for a new ATH. Summary: Trend still bearish, but BTC is now at a critical support. Hold → relief rallies + possibly new ATH. Break → $73k–$66k incoming. Stay sharp. Watch the levels. Trade with intention. NFA &" DYOR
Short
by CryptoPatel
Smart Money Liquidity Trap Explained⭐ Smart Money Liquidity Trap Explained ✨ A deep dive into how institutions manipulate price before major moves ✨ In every financial market — Forex, Crypto, Stocks, Indices — price doesn’t simply move at random. Behind the scenes, Smart Money (institutions, banks, hedge funds) engineer setups that allow them to enter positions at the best possible price. One of their most effective tools is the Liquidity Trap. Let’s break it down beautifully and clearly. 👇 🔥 What Is a Liquidity Trap? A Liquidity Trap occurs when Smart Money deliberately pushes price into areas loaded with: ❌ Stop-loss orders 📉 Sell-side liquidity 📈 Buy-side liquidity 😰 Emotional retail entries 🔥 Breakout traders placing pending orders These areas become liquidity pools — perfect fuel for institutions to fill their massive positions. Retail traders think it’s a breakout… But Smart Money thinks: ➡️ "Thank you for the liquidity." 🧩 How Smart Money Creates the Trap 1️⃣ Phase 1: Build the Setup Smart Money guides price slowly toward an obvious level: A clean high A clean low A trendline A double top/bottom Retail traders get excited: 📢 “Breakout coming!” But institutions are simply gathering attention. 2️⃣ Phase 2: The Liquidity Grab ⚡ Price spikes violently above/below the obvious level. This move triggers: 🟥 Stop-loss hunts 📉 Forced liquidations 💥 Breakouts that fail instantly This sudden spike gives institutions the liquidity needed to place large buy or sell orders without causing massive slippage. This is why the spike is often fast and dramatic. 3️⃣ Phase 3: The Real Move Begins 🚀 After the liquidity is collected, price reverses sharply. This is the moment Smart Money actually commits to the real direction. Retail traders feel: 🤯 “Why did it reverse?!” 😭 “I got stopped out for nothing!” 😵 “The breakout was fake!” But Smart Money simply executed their strategy perfectly. 🎯 How to Use Liquidity Traps in Your Trading Study where retail traders commonly place: ⛔ Stops 📌 Breakout orders ❗ Predictable entries Then wait for the fast liquidity grab followed by: A displacement 🎇 A sharp wick rejection A structure shift (CHoCH / BOS) These signals often reveal the true direction of the upcoming move. 💡 Key Features of a Smart Money Liquidity Trap ✨ Sudden spike into obvious areas ✨ Fast liquidation and stop-hunting behavior ✨ Sharp wick rejections ✨ Structure shift after the spike ✨ Smooth continuation in the real direction 🚀 Why This Concept Is So Powerful Recognizing liquidity traps allows you to: ❌ Avoid fake breakouts 🛡️ Protect yourself from stop-hunts 🎯 Enter the market at premium/discount levels 🤝 Align with Smart Money 💼 Improve long-term consistency This is how professional traders stay on the right side of volatility — by understanding why the market moves, not just where it moves.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by XAU_EMPIRE
Gold H1 – Is This Just a Range or a Break Incoming?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (21/11) 📈 Market Context Gold continues to trade inside a compressed intraday range as markets react to the latest discussion on whether the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates anytime soon. According to new reports, policymakers remain cautious, and early rate-cut expectations are fading as inflation progress slows. This shift pushes USD stronger, increases Treasury yields, and temporarily weakens gold’s bullish momentum. Key takeaways from the news: • Fed officials note that inflation is “still not where it needs to be,” reducing the probability of early rate cuts. • Markets have scaled back expectations for a Q1 cut, keeping USD supported. • Higher yields → tighter financial conditions → gold struggles to break premium levels. • Institutions are likely engineering liquidity grabs on both sides before committing to a new directional move. Price is currently sitting near the 4030–4045 zone, right above discount liquidity, waiting for a catalyst to break out of the short-term compression. 🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Structure) • Market Structure: Gold has completed a clear CHoCH + short-term bearish sequence and is now compressing into the discount zone around 4030. • Premium Sell Zone (4H Supply): 4128–4130 aligns with unmitigated supply + buy-side liquidity resting above internal highs. • Discount Buy Zone: 4030–4028 sits inside the last clean demand zone where a previous sweep occurred. • Liquidity Map: → Buy-side liquidity: above 4128–4135 → Sell-side liquidity: below 4028–4020 Institutions are likely to sweep one side before delivering direction. 🔴 Sell Setup (Premium Reaction Zone) • Entry: 4128 – 4130 • Stop-Loss: 4140 • Take-Profit: → 4080 (minor imbalance fill) → 4045 (range EQ) → 4030–4028 (discount demand retest) 📌 Execution rule: Wait for liquidity sweep into the zone + bearish CHoCH on M5–M15 before entering. 🟢 Buy Setup (Discount Reaction Zone) • Entry: 4030 – 4028 • Stop-Loss: 4020 • Take-Profit: → 4060 (short-term reaction level) → 4095 (inefficiency fill) → 4120 (premium retest) 📌 Valid only if price sweeps the 4030–4028 pocket and shows bullish displacement from discount. ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • USD strength may spike unexpectedly as rate-cut bets fade — reduce position size during volatility. • Avoid trading inside the 4045–4085 chop zone unless a clean structure break forms. • Manage trades aggressively once liquidity levels are taken. • Expect engineered manipulation during low-volume Asian hours. 📝 Summary Gold is compressing inside a narrow intraday range as markets reassess the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. SMC structure suggests a two-sided liquidity sweep before a decisive move: • Sell Zone: 4128–4130 (premium supply) • Buy Zone: 4030–4028 (discount demand) Expect classic accumulation → sweep → displacement patterns until macro conditions create a new trend. 📍 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for more Smart Money updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
XAUUSD – Where Smart Money Strikes Today🌐 MARKET CONTEXT Gold enters today’s session after a period of controlled volatility, with price repeatedly reacting around key liquidity pockets but failing to produce a clean breakout. The M30 structure remains bearish, with price rejecting premium levels and forming consistent lower highs. Recent Drivers USD stays firm as markets maintain expectations of a slightly hawkish Federal Reserve Traders await upcoming mid-week data → low conviction, cautious positioning Overall sentiment remains neutral — no strong safe-haven pressures Session Outlook London Session: Likely to engineer early sweeps into premium supply zones New York Session: Higher chance of real directional expansion Bias: Bearish intraday until discount zones trigger a CHoCH (shift of character) Price is currently inside mid-range, so the safest setups remain at extremes where liquidity is concentrated. 📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (SMC + LIQUIDITY) Market Structure M30 Trend: Lower High → Lower Low sequence Equilibrium zone: 4068–4085 Inducement layers resting above 4147 and 4081 Liquidity Levels BSL: Above 4147 & 4081 SSL: Below 4033 & deep liquidity at 3993 Market continues printing engineered wicks, trapping impulsive traders Imbalances Bearish FVG: 4147–4148 → perfect for premium scalp sells Minor imbalance: 4081 Discount inefficiencies near 4033 and 3993 → ideal buy setups 🔑 KEY PRICE ZONES (Strong Logic + Clear Explanation) 4148–4147 ▶️ Premium Liquidity Trap – High-Quality Sell Zone This area holds an unmitigated bearish order block combined with buy-side liquidity. Smart Money typically uses this zone to trap breakout buyers before reversing sharply. 4079–4081 ▶️ Secondary Premium Sweep Zone – Fast Rejection Expected A mini liquidity pool just above equilibrium, designed for early-session stop hunts. Often triggers sharp intraday reversals. 4035–4033 ▶️ Discount Reaction Zone – Clean Scalping Demand This zone holds micro-demand + SSL resting below. Expect low-drawdown reactions ideal for quick intraday buys. 3995–3993 ▶️ Deep Discount Liquidity Pool – High-Probability Reversal Base A rich accumulation of Sell-Side Liquidity combined with HTF discount structure. Strong reversal potential if price reaches this level. ⚙️ TRADE SETUPS (High-Precision SMC Execution) ✔️ SELL SETUP 1 – Premium Rejection Sell Entry: 4148–4147 Stoploss: 4126 TP1: 4135 TP2: 4120 TP3: 4085 Logic: BSL sweep + bearish imbalance fill → sharp sell-off expected. ✔️ SELL SETUP 2 – Mid-Range Liquidity Sweep Entry: 4079–4081 Stoploss: 4087 TP1: 4065 TP2: 4048 TP3: 4033 Logic: Quick liquidity hunt above equilibrium followed by displacement. ✔️ BUY SETUP 1 – Intraday Scalping Rebound Entry: 4035–4033 Stoploss: 4027 TP1: 4048 TP2: 4070 Logic: SSL sweep → micro CHoCH → ideal for fast bullish reaction. ✔️ BUY SETUP 2 – Deep Discount Reversal Entry: 3995–3993 Stoploss: 3987 TP1: 4010 TP2: 4040 TP3: 4070 Logic: Major discount zone + liquidity buildup → strong reversal potential. 🧠 NOTES / SESSION PLAN Avoid mid-range trading — only trade at liquidity extremities Expect London fake-outs; real movement likely in NY Always wait for M5/M15 confirmation (CHoCH + BOS) Avoid buying in premium areas; avoid selling in deep discount zones Follow strict risk management — volatility may spike unexpectedly 🏁 CONCLUSION Gold continues to hold a bearish intraday structure, favouring premium sell setups at 4147 and 4081. Discount zones at 4033 and 3993 offer high-probability buy reactions and possible deeper reversals. Trade with patience. Execute only at liquidity extremes. Let Smart Money show its trap — then strike with precision.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alicee_Trader
GUN/USDT: Two Key Demand Zones for High-Probability Bounce (4H)The price action on the 4-hour chart shows that GUN has been moving within a clear descending channel, indicating a prolonged bearish trend. However, two deep-value demand zones have been identified, presenting high-probability swing long opportunities.Primary Demand Zone (Higher): The first purple zone, which has already been tapped or is very close to a tap, represents a strong unmitigated Order Block. This is the immediate trade opportunity targeting a move back towards the channel's upper boundary.Secondary Demand Zone (Lower): Should the primary zone fail, the lower, deeper purple box at $\sim\$0.0079$ represents a high-conviction "Last Line of Defense" demand area. This offers an excellent high-risk/high-reward entry if the price extends the drop.Trade Plan: We are looking for a reaction and consolidation within one of these two demand zones to target the upper trendline and potentially break out of the descending channel for a significant swing.
Long
by BotzMaze
XAUUSD Bullish Retracement Setup from Support Zone Toward Key Re1. Market Structure Price is currently trading near a major support zone (~4055–4060 area), highlighted in blue. Multiple rejections from this zone in the past indicate strong buying interest. The structure shows higher lows forming intraday, suggesting bullish pressure building. 2. Key Zones 🔵 Support Zone (Entry Region) Marked around 4055–4060. Price dipped into this zone and bounced, showing a potential demand area for long positions. 🔵 Resistance Level (First Target Region) Around 4081–4098. This is the first major resistance the price is likely to test after bouncing. 🔵 Final Target Zone 4120 area, the upper major resistance. Previous highs around this level show strong selling interest historically. 3. Expected Price Movement The chart suggests a potential bullish move: Price bounces from the support (entry) area. Climbs toward 4081 (minor resistance). Retraces slightly. Continues upward toward 4097–4100. Final push toward 4120 target zone. This is a classic retracement + continuation bullish structure. 4. Trade Idea Bias: Bullish Entry: 4055–4060 (support zone) First TP: 4081 Second TP: 4097–4100 Final Target: 4120 Stop Loss: Below 4050 (beneath support zone)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DrForexPhd
Gold XAUUSD – Fresh Resistance Tested Twice, Bears Eye 4057 PullGold gave us a clean reaction today, rejecting the 4107–4110 supply zone not once, but twice. That double tap reinforced a fresh resistance band at 4087–4095, where sellers stepped back in with intention. As long as 4012 holds on the upside, this resistance zone remains my short-term line in the sand. Any push back into 4087–4095 may attract renewed selling pressure, keeping the door open for a move toward 4057, with momentum potentially extending lower if sellers stay in control. I’ll be watching how price behaves on each revisit—structure remains king. Your feedback drives our content and keeps everyone trading smarter. Let’s make those pips together! 🚀 Happy Trading, – The InvestPro Team
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by InvestPro_India
1
ERIS 1 Day View 📊 Current Price & Range Last traded around ₹1,669 – ₹1,672 Today’s observed intraday range so far: Low ~ ₹1,651.6 and High ~ ₹1,679.2. Previous close was ~ ₹1,669.60. 🔍 Key Technical Levels (1-Day) Support levels to monitor: 1. ~ ₹1,650 mark – near today’s intraday low (~1,651). 2. A stronger buffer may lie around ₹1,620-1,630, given prior trading zones (though exact MA data not fully pulled). 3. If price breaks decisively below ~₹1,650, the next meaningful lower zone might be nearer the 52-week low area (~₹1,100) but that’s much further away. Resistance levels to monitor: 1. Immediate resistance near today’s high ~ ₹1,679-1,680. 2. If momentum builds, next resistance around ~ ₹1,700-₹1,720 area. 3. The 52-week high (~₹1,910) remains well above current price and acts as long-term cap. ⚠️ Notes & Caveats These levels are based on publicly available price ranges today; they do not include detailed moving-average levels or intraday support/resistance lines from charting software. Always consider external risks: market sentiment, pharma sector news, regulatory updates, earnings surprises for Eris. Short-term trading involves higher volatility and increased risk; these setups should be used with proper stop-losses and position sizing.
NSE:ERISLong
by TechnicalExpress
Smart Loss Management Guide in the Trading Market1. Why Loss Management Is More Important Than Profit-Making Most new traders focus on making money and ignore risk control. But experienced traders know that your downside determines your survival. If capital is destroyed early, even a good trading system cannot help. Here’s why loss management matters: Capital Preservation: If you lose 50% of your account, you need a 100% gain to recover. Avoiding deep drawdowns is essential. Consistency Over Luck: A trader with average profits but disciplined risk control will outperform an aggressive trader without rules. Uncertainty of Markets: Even the best strategies have losing streaks. Smart loss management keeps you disciplined during uncertain phases. Simply put, losing small and winning medium-to-large is the essence of profitable trading. 2. Key Principles of Smart Loss Management 2.1 Risk Per Trade Rule Professional traders follow a simple rule: Risk only 1–2% of trading capital per trade. This ensures that even after 10 losing trades in a row, your capital stays strong. A 1% rule means: If your capital = ₹1,00,000 Max loss per trade = ₹1,000 This protects you from emotional decisions and ensures controlled drawdowns. 2.2 Position Sizing Position size determines how much quantity you buy or sell. It must be based on: Stop-loss distance Capital Risk per trade percentage Formula: Position Size = Risk Amount / Stop-Loss Distance Example: Capital = ₹1,00,000 Risk per trade = 1% = ₹1,000 Stop-loss = 5 points Position size = 1000 / 5 = 200 quantity This keeps your risk uniform across trades. 2.3 Placing Effective Stop-Loss Orders Not all stop-losses are equal. Smart traders use: Technical stop-loss: based on chart levels (support, resistance, swing high/low). Volatility-based stop-loss: dynamic stops using ATR (Average True Range). Time-based stop-loss: exit if trade doesn’t work within a fixed time window. Avoid placing stops too close, which results in premature exits. 2.4 Avoiding Averaging Down Many traders double their position when price goes against them thinking it will “bounce back”. This is dangerous. Averaging down increases exposure when your analysis is already wrong. Professional traders do the opposite—they scale out or exit. 2.5 Maintain Reward-to-Risk Ratio Every trade must have a minimum Risk-to-Reward (RR) ratio of 1:2 or 1:3. Example: If risk = ₹1,000 Target should be ₹2,000 or ₹3,000 This ensures that even with a 40% win rate, you remain profitable. 3. Psychological Pillars of Smart Loss Management Market losses are emotionally painful. Most poor decisions come from emotions like fear, hope, greed, and frustration. Smart traders master the psychology of loss. 3.1 Accept That Losses Are Normal Every trader—beginner or expert—has losing trades. Accepting losses helps: Reduce revenge trading Maintain discipline Focus on process, not outcome 3.2 Don’t Take Losses Personally A losing trade is not a failure of your personality. It is simply part of the game. Traders who attach ego to trades often avoid closing losing positions, leading to bigger losses. 3.3 Control Overtrading After a loss, many traders try to recover immediately. This emotional urge leads to irrational decisions. Smart loss management requires: Stop trading after big loss Follow pre-defined trade limits Reset emotionally before next trade 3.4 Develop Emotional Discipline The best loss management tool is self-control. This includes: Sticking to stop-loss Avoiding impulsive orders Following a checklist before entering trades Discipline converts a strategy into consistent profits. 4. Techniques for Smart Loss Management 4.1 Use Trailing Stop-Loss Trailing stops help protect profits as the trade moves in your favor. For example: If trade goes 20 points up, move stop-loss to breakeven If trade goes 40 points up, trail stop to +20 This locks in gains and avoids giving back profits. 4.2 Hedging Positions Advanced traders use hedging techniques like: Options hedging (buying puts to protect long positions) Futures hedging Ratio spreads Hedging reduces the impact of sudden volatility or news events. 4.3 Diversify Trades Avoid putting all your capital into one trade or one sector. Diversification ensures: Reduced exposure Stable overall performance Lower emotional pressure But don't over-diversify; focus on 4–8 quality trades. 4.4 Use a Daily Loss Limit Set a maximum daily loss that stops you from trading further. Example: Daily Max Loss = 3% of capital If you hit that limit, stop trading for the day. This prevents emotional breakdowns and unnecessary revenge trades. 4.5 Create a Trading Journal Record: Entry and exit Stop-loss Reason for trade Emotional state Reviewing your journal reveals patterns, mistakes, and ways to refine your strategy. 5. Common Mistakes to Avoid 5.1 Moving Stop-Loss Further Away Traders sometimes shift stop-loss thinking the market will reverse. This is a mistake. A stop-loss must be respected at all times. 5.2 Trading Without a Defined Exit A trade without a clear exit strategy becomes a gamble. Smart traders pre-plan both stop-loss and target. 5.3 Ignoring Market Conditions A strategy that works in trending markets may fail in sideways markets. Loss management includes reducing position size during choppy or news-heavy environments. 5.4 Emotions-Based Position Sizing Increasing lot size after a win or reducing after a loss emotionally disturbs risk management. Position size must always be formula-based. 6. Building Your Smart Loss Management System Step 1: Define Your Risk Rules Risk per trade, daily loss limit, maximum open trades. Step 2: Create Position Sizing Formula Based on stop-loss distance and capital. Step 3: Pre-Plan Stop-Loss Levels Technical, volatility-based, or time-based. Step 4: Maintain a Journal Track mistakes, patterns, and improvements. Step 5: Maintain Emotional Discipline Follow rules no matter what the market does. 7. Conclusion Smart loss management is the foundation of profitable trading. Markets reward discipline, not emotion. By controlling risk, using effective stop-loss techniques, maintaining psychological discipline, and applying structured methods, traders protect their capital and grow consistently over time. Every successful trader understands that losses are unavoidable, but big losses are preventable. With a strong loss management system, you turn volatility from a threat into an opportunity and ensure you remain a long-term player in financial markets.
NSE:HDFCBANKEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Tube Investments of India Ltd — Wave X Triangle in PlayAfter the sharp decline from ₹4,810, the recent advance initially looked like a potential leading diagonal of a new impulse. However, the internal overlaps and choppy rhythm point instead to a Wave X triangle, likely part of a larger corrective sequence (W–X–Y). As long as price holds below ₹3,419.90, the bearish outlook remains intact, with the next leg — Wave Y — possibly aiming toward the 0.5–0.618 retracement zone (₹2,511–₹1,968). That region, close to the golden ratio, may act as a potential termination zone for the entire correction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:TIINDIAShort
by WaveXplorer
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES? - Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day - Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade - SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall Trendline Support in DCMSHRIRAM BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
NSE:DCMSHRIRAM
by Kapil-Mittal
2
Bitcoin Bybit chart analysis November 20Hello It's a Bitcoin Guide. If you "follow" You can receive real-time movement paths and comment notifications on major sections. If my analysis was helpful, Please click the booster button at the bottom. Here's a Bitcoin 30-minute chart. Shortly, at 10:30 AM and 12 PM, the Nasdaq indicators will be released. At the bottom left, the purple finger indicates the final long position entry point on the 19th, at $90,355.8. I've linked the strategy to that level. The bottom area at the bottom is what I consider to be the major support line for this week. (The center line of the Bollinger Bands monthly chart has moved from the previous $87,665.3.) Everyone knows this and is waiting for it. In my experience, if you wait at the bottom, it generally doesn't come down easily. + Nasdaq volatility Of course, we'll have to watch today's movement, but please watch until the very end. Because today could be a day with a significant move, I kept my strategy as safe and simple as possible. *Red Finger Movement Path: One-Way Long Position Strategy 1. $90,341.7 long position entry point / Stop loss price if the purple support line is completely broken 2. $93,343.2 long position primary target -> Top, Good target price in that order If the strategy is successful, you can utilize the 92.3K long position re-entry point indicated. Since the 4-hour Bollinger Bands are repeatedly hitting the center line, barring a sharp decline in the Nasdaq, it is poised for a strong upward trend. Note that the first point at the bottom is a double bottom. If it falls to this level, it is more likely to reach the bottom than to rebound. Today, the Nasdaq and Bitcoin must move as far upward as possible to avoid falling to 86.7K this week. In the event of a weak sideways movement or correction, I recommend keeping the bottom open until 9:00 AM next Monday. Please use my analysis to this point for reference only. I hope you operate safely, with a clear focus on principled trading and stop-loss orders. Thank you.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by BitCoinGuide
SOL DUMP TO THE $40YES, YOU SEEN RIGHT CRYPTO:SOLUSD SOL ready with multiple negative patterns. 1. all time resistance 2. triple top 3. cup and handle failure First pattern is already activated and triple top near to active. Reverse scenario take support from major strong support. cup and handle breakout 🧠 Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) ⚖️ This is not financial advice or suggestion 👉 “Risk Is Real 💸 Stay Practical🚀” 💬 Please feel free to ask any questions (It's Free)
CRYPTO:SOLUSD
by Jatin109
OVERVIEW GOLD CHART H1 11/21 🧭 1. CURRENT MARKET CONTEXT Gold remains in a downtrend on the H1 timeframe, despite a minor rebound after the NFP release. A sharp drop to 4,039 created a new low, followed by a weak recovery and sideways movement during the Asian session. When the London session opened, price broke below the consolidation zone, confirming that sellers are still in control of the market. Key highlights: • The market remains bearish as long as price stays below 4,052–4,060 • Volume Profile shows VAL at 4,052 turning into a new resistance • Intraday structure continues to form lower highs → maintaining the main downtrend ⸻ 🔍 2. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – H1 🔹 Trend overview • H1: Clear bearish pattern with consecutive LL – LH. Breakout from the Asian session sideways confirms the continuation of the downtrend. 🔹 Price action • Asian session: Price consolidates after the sharp drop • European session: Break below the sideways range → sellers continue to push • All upward moves are just retracements – not a reversal ⸻ 📌 3. IMPORTANT PRICE ZONES 🔥 Resistance zones (SELL priority) • 4,040 – 4,052 → Strong intraday resistance – Confluence of VAL, supply zone, and downtrend line • 4,060 – 4,070 → For deeper pullbacks 🟩 Support zones (downside targets) • 3,995 – 4,005 → Stronger support – extended target if selling momentum increases ⸻ 🎯 4. TRADING SCENARIOS 🔻 Scenario 1 – Most important (priority) SELL on pullback If price retraces to 4,040 – 4,052 and shows rejection signals (M5/M15): Sell zone: 4,040 – 4,052 TP: 4,025 → 4,010 → 3,995 SL: Above 4,060 🔻 Scenario 2 – Continuation after breaking the low If price breaks 4,028 with a strong H1 candle close: Sell continuation TP: 4,010 → 3,995 SL: 4,045 🔻Scenario 3 – Only trigger on reversal structure If price breaks & closes above 4,060, the structure weakens: ➡️Quick Buy: up to 4,075 → 4,092 (Only trade with strong signals – this is a counter-trend setup) ⸻ 🥇 5. CONCLUSION • Main trend: Down – SELL is preferred • Best entry zone: 4,040 – 4,052 (strong confluence) • Only Buy on a clear break above 4,060
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mark_Melanie_Gold_Stragegy
Bitcoin is in a clean daily downtrend right nowBitcoin is in a clean daily downtrend right now – every bounce is just providing fuel for the next leg until the structure says otherwise. Good evening traders, Brian here with a higher-timeframe look at BTCUSD. Fundamental analysis Bitcoin has been under sustained pressure even as some funds continue to accumulate spot positions. A few key points: Macro uncertainty and tighter dollar liquidity are weighing on high-beta assets. While gold has held up relatively well, the performance gap between BTC and XAU has been widening in recent weeks, highlighting a clear risk-off tone towards crypto. On-chain and fund flows suggest that a number of crypto investors are actually de-risking and pulling capital out, which reduces market depth and makes downside moves more violent when liquidity is thin. Narrative is still mixed: long-term holders and some institutions are happy to buy lower, but in the short term the order flow is dominated by forced selling, deleveraging and risk reduction. Bottom line: the macro backdrop does not yet justify an aggressive “buy the dip” approach on BTC. Trend-following shorts remain safer than trying to call the bottom. Technical analysis Daily structure is clearly bearish: We have a confirmed market structure shift on the left of the chart, with the prior higher-low support broken and a series of decisive lower lows since then. The main bullish trendline from earlier in the year has given way, and price is now travelling within a steep descending leg. BTC recently tagged the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the last major swing, aligning with a prior liquidity pocket. That produced a sharp intraday bounce, but so far it looks like a reaction inside a downtrend, not a full reversal. Around 75.4k we have an important daily support zone. If this level is broken and accepted below, it opens the door to a deeper flush towards the next large support band lower on the chart. Overhead, there is a clean imbalance/FVG and prior distribution area around 108k, with an intermediate resistance block around 96–97k and a nearer supply zone around 88k. These are prime locations to look for fresh shorts if price retraces. For now my bias is simple: look to sell rallies into premium levels; any longs are tactical, short-term trades off key support only. Key levels Resistance / short zones: 88,000 – first reaction zone, “pay attention to the reaction” 96,500–97,200 – main short entry area for medium-term positions 108,000 – higher FVG / major daily supply Support / long-only intraday zones: 75,400 – key support + 1.618 Fib/liquidity zone 74,000–72,000 – deeper support if 75.4k fails Trade scenarios (for reference, not financial advice) 1. Short the first meaningful pullback – 88k area Entry: 88,000 Stop: 90,000 (above local structure) Targets: 82,000 → 78,000 → 75,500 Idea: treat 88k as the first supply zone in a downtrend. If price bounces from current levels and stalls here, I’m looking for rejection (wick rejections, failed break, or a clear shift in intraday structure) to join the trend. Once price moves in favour, I would look to pull the stop to breakeven and let the position run. 2. Core swing short – 96.5k–97.2k zone Entry: 96,500–97,200 Stop: 99,000 Targets: 88,000 → 82,000 → 75,500 This is my preferred “medium-term” sell area. It aligns with a more significant daily supply block and offers better risk–reward if the larger bearish leg continues. Any squeeze into this region after a series of lower lows is, in my view, a controlled opportunity to reload shorts. 3. Tactical long only at deep support Entry: 75,400–74,800 Stop: 73,800 Targets: 82,000 → 88,000 Here I would only consider a short-term long if we see a clean liquidity sweep into the 1.618 extension and strong rejection (long lower wicks, aggressive buy-back). The idea is simply to trade the bounce back into resistance, not to fight the higher-timeframe downtrend. If BTC loses 75.4k and starts closing below it on the daily, I would become much more cautious on any long exposure and focus almost entirely on short setups towards the lower “important support” zone on the chart. Trade with the trend, respect your risk, and don’t get trapped trying to be a hero at the bottom of a falling market. If this BTC breakdown adds value to your plan, make sure you follow Brian for more daily BTC and gold analysis, and share your own view in the comments so we can compare scenarios.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital