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Gold’s weekly outlook: June 03-07Gold finally made a decisive move as it broke out from the flag on the upside changing the trend to bullish after more than 2 months. The consolidation which it was in from past few weeks ended with a massive move of $21 happening on the upside with gold ending well above the psychological $1300 mark. The week was a huge one with the candle having a range of more than $30 testing both the support and the resistance indicating that gold had a price-volume breakout. Technically, gold continues its cup and handle pattern which now is on the handle formation part on the upside on lieu of the breakout and the low having been registered maybe for the year on the whole. On the chart – Gold has turned bullish after it broke out from the flag which it was moving in from last 12 weeks. Fundamentally, it wont be any better time for the gold to move higher as global growth story is keeping the economies under severe pressure with the reliance on safe haven demand of gold increasing as dollar too is falling in tandem with risky asset class due to the slowdown. Only thing which may hinder or slowdown the bullish activity is the long term trend line which is still being resistant. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Bulls make a comeback as gold broke out from the flag on the upside and also closed above the $1300 mark. Till the support is held it can head higher to $1308. If this is crossed it can move to $1318. Once this is taken out it can rally to $1327. 2. For bears, the run is over as the price handed a breakout on the upside. Bullish view – Bulls come roaring back as not only the price had a breakout on upside it also closed above $1300 after 9 weeks. Nearly every fundamental is supporting the bulls as the demand for the yellow metal has surged given the global outlook. The continuing cup and handle pattern gives a lot of impetus to the bulls as price is all set to go higher given the setup. The second leg of the rally looks to have started which had begun in mid August of 2018. With all the euphoria amidst the bulls the price can make a new high given the breakout holds. Bears failed to prevent the breakout which wipes out all the remaining bearishness. On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1308 for the targets of $1318 and $1327 with a stop loss placed below $1296. Longer term target $1341. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 27- June 01Gold remained sideways trading in its set range with consolidation spilling into 5 straight weeks. The yellow metal had a weak start to the week but ended with gains of $7 without the support of lower dollar as global tensions weighed again. Point to note : Gold has been unsuccessful to give a weekly closing above $1286 after repeated tries over last few weeks which suggests the upside may still be capped and selling at highs remain the choice for the trade which continues to keep the bearish trend intact. On the chart – Gold made an attempt too break free of the range it had been trading in via a gap down but again was unsuccessful copying the last week’s swing. The closing continued to defy any breakout which continues to signal bearishness. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Bulls remain out of the scene as the bearish trend continues excepting scalp trade. 2. Gold closed below the support, till this is respected it can move towards $1273. If this is taken out it can fall to $1260. And if this is breached it can slide towards $1248. Bullish view – Bullish bets still remain unattractive given the price movement which is encouraging bears. Only a breakout will catapult bulls back into the horizon. Bearish view – Bears eroded the price below $1270 but failed to capitalize, still they can have a cheer as they didnt allow the price to breakout. For bears to remain as the front runners they need the defend the supports/levels and make sure that gold isn’t allowed to breakout. The flag/pattern continues with next key support area being $1236-$1240. On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bearish and prices are expected to head lower. Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel. Gold can be sold under $1284 for the targets of $1273 and $1260 with a stop loss placed above $1296. Longer term target $1248. A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.
TVC:GOLDShort
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 20-24Gold had a big week ranging over $28 finally ending with cuts of $8 closing near the lows of the week. The metal saw a huge upward rally on day one closing over crucial $1300 which was erased completely by following 4 down days resulting in failed attempt to break through the flag/pattern thus encouraging the bear cartel to persevere with the trend. The rejection at the top was inline with the trendline resistance making it even more heftier for any fresh upmove. The trend remains bearish and increases the potential for more incremental selling as gold was unable to breakout. On the chart – Gold had a failed attempt to breakout of the flag/pattern and adding to the woes $1300 was rejected comfortably indicating heavy selling pressure at the higher levels. This kind of move suggests the bearish trend continues to persist. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Bulls made a mockery of the initial rally as they failed to keep the prices afloat resulting in negative week and the price remaining inside the flag thus keeping the bearish trend alive. 2. Gold closed below the support, till this is respected it can move towards $1273. If this is broken it can move to $1260. And if this is taken out it can fall towards $1248. Bulls had a failed attempt at the breakout making them stay at the sidelines again. Bearish view – Bears clawed back over $28 from the highs continuing their assault as they prevented the metal from breaking out. The bear strength was clearly visible when the price hit the resistance of the trendline and collapsed even when fundamentals were not that supportive of such a fall. For bears to keep the trend intact they need to prevent gold from breaking out and new lows can be visited with next major support area being $1236-$1240. On larger terms, Gold remains bearish and prices are expected to head lower. Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel. Gold can be sold under $1273 for the targets of $1260 and $1248 with a stop loss placed above $1287. A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.
TVC:GOLDShort
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 13-17Gold continued to consolidate in $15 range but this time the expansion was on the upside unlike the previous weeks, finally closing with gains of $7. The uptrend was halted as the price action created a double top formation directly inverse to previous week’s double bottom formation which continue to suggest the trend still remains bearish in-spite of favorable fundamentals which failed to keep the price at higher levels. On the chart – Gold remained rangebound unable to break through the flag even after having a fairly good week after nearly a month. The closing still remains the key indicator of a bear market consolidation given the price action. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Bulls still remain on sidelines as they failed to build on the gains. 2. Gold closed below the support, till this is respected it can move towards $1284. If this is taken out it can fall to $1273. And if this is breached it can slide towards $1260. Bullish views remain dull unless gold breaks through the flag on upside. Bearish view – Bears were able to to bring the price down from highs comfortably with fundamentals mostly against them indicating the metal is having selling pressure at the highs. For bears to continue having the trend in their favor they need to stop the price from breaking out from the flag with next major support seen near $1236-$1240. On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bearish and prices are expected to head lower. Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel. Gold can be sold under $1277 for the targets of $1273 and $1260 with a stop loss placed above $1289. Longer term target $1248. A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.
TVC:GOLDShort
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 06-10Gold continued to trade in the defined range similar to the previous week ending with cuts of more than $6. The week saw gold getting battered towards the low again as the Fed’s policy outcome was dovish for the dollar. The week again has important fundamental news majorly the U.S – China trade talks which is presumed to be at the last level of round of talks. Gold failed to create a new high even after having a positive opening rather it closed below the support again allowing the bearish trend to get stronger on every passing week. On the chart – Gold moved in a range showing indications of bear market consolidation as it was unable to breach highs or lows of previous week. The pattern breakdown was again retested and yet again confirmed solidifying the bearish trend. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Bulls continue to remain unwanted as the breakdown continues excepting scalp trading. 2. Gold closed below the support, till this is held it can move towards $1273. Once this is breached it can slide to $1260. If this fails to hold it can fall to $1248. Bullish bets remain unattractive as breakdown continues, they only come in contention once a breakout on upside happens. Bearish view – Bears resumed the attack after a week as they pushed the price back towards the low but failed to register a new one. The bearish bets saw a massive surge once the high of the previous week was respected and the price reversed. For bears, the technicals remain in their favor as the breakdown continues allowing room for further downside with the next crucial support area being $1236-$1240. On larger terms, Gold remains bearish and prices are expected to head lower. Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel. Gold can be sold under $1278 for the targets of $1273 and $1260 with a stop loss placed above $1289. Longer term target $1248. A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.
TVC:GOLDShort
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: April 29 – May 03Gold made a new low before settling near the highs for the week. Again it was a $20-$22 ranged week where gold posted gains of $13 which can be considered as a retracement from the lows as prevailing situations did not alter much to enable a shift in the trend. The week has important fundamental events with the spotlight on Fed’s interest rate decision which will generate lot of volatility with large moves expected on either side. Still the trend remains in the favor of bears till a breakout happens on the upside. On the chart – Gold made lower highs and lower lows formation again indicating the strength on the upside might be limited. The pattern breakdown continues to play as it was retested again in the last week and got respected. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Bulls remain sidelined as they failed to breakout excepting scalp trades though the closing can be eyed upon as a first mark towards bullishness. 2. Gold closed below the support, till this is respected it can move towards $1284. If this is taken out it can fall to $1273. And if this is breached it can slide towards $1260. Bullish view – Bulls can have some cheer as they finally had a good week and the closing was on their favor though lot has to be done to get the trend back to bull. Breakout is required for bulls to over power bears again. Bearish view – Bears can also have some cheer as they created a new low but failed to hang on to it. The formation of lower highs and lower lows continue to aid the bears to keep the trend intact. The pattern breakdown continues and new lows can be expected till it is respected with next major support area being $1236-$1240. On larger terms, Gold remains bearish and prices are expected to head lower. Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel. Gold can be sold under $1284 for the targets of $1273 and $1260 with a stop loss placed above $1296. A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.
TVC:GOLDShort
by vanimator
2
Gold’s weekly outlook: April 22-26Gold continued its downtrend falling $15 in the week which again was a $20-$22 ranged one. The fresh decline raises the bar for further downside as technical support of a pattern gave way which was also retested it the week itself allowing it to become an immediate resistance for the price going ahead. Fundamental news keep coming out and last week saw the re-surface of much talked ‘impeachment’ of American President which can again sway the prices. The bearish trend is getting stronger on every passing week given the price movement. On the chart – Gold moved only down after it had opened indicating the metal indeed has been under immense selling pressure ever since it had broken down. Another pattern breakdown is playing out and the price is expected to head lower enhancing bearish trend. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Bulls continue to remain off the grid given the breakdowns happening excepting scalp trading. 2. Gold closed well below the support, till this is respected it can move towards $1273. If this is taken out it can fall to $1260. And if this is broken it can slide towards $1248. Bullish view remains scanty to nil given the trend development. Bearish view – Bears stomped forward eroding another $15 from the value of gold as trend continues to deepen owing to the breakdowns. Bears registered a fresh low as risk-on continues to gather steam. More downside room has been created after last week’s move. For bears to remain in the driving seat they need to keep the price below the supports and new lows can be expected with the next major support area being $1236-$1240. On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bearish and prices are expected to head lower. Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel. Gold can be sold under $1271 for the targets of $1260 and $1248 with a stop loss placed above $1284. A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.
TVC:GOLDShort
by vanimator
2
Gold’s weekly outlook: April 15-19Gold continued to consolidate in a $20-$22 band with actual movement being less than a dollar maintaining the bearish momentum. The highs were sold into as risk-on re-emerged strongly owing to fundamental developments and better than expected data from America. The bar created looks very bearish and fresh lows are expected as tensions around the globe seem to take a breather. On the chart – Gold respected the breakdown by having a closing under the red trendline after it broke through it in the early part of the week. The move tries to confirm the shift in the trend to bearish. On the chart – 1. Bulls continue to remain out of action as they failed to prop-up the prices excepting scalp trading. 2. Gold closed below the support, till this is respected it can move towards $1284. If this is taken out it can fall to $1273. And if this gives way it can slide to $1260. Bullish view – Bulls tried their best to turn the trend back in their favor but failed badly giving a red flag to bullish bets yet again. Bearish view – Bears came out as the winners at the end of the week as they pushed the price back by $20 from the highs making it close below the red trendline again suggesting the breakdown continues. For bears to continue their assault they need to keep the price below the supports and new lows can be expected with next major support area being $1236-$1240. On larger terms, Gold remains bearish and prices are expected to head lower. Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel. Gold can be sold under $1289 for the targets of $1284 and $1273 with a stop loss placed above $1298. Longer term target $1260. A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.
TVC:GOLDShort
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: April 08-12Gold had a muted week in terms of actual gain/loss as it was in consolidation after suffering a big red weekly bar in the previous week. The yellow metal moved in $25 range testing the support and the resistance ending with cuts of mere $1. Some notable events are lined up in the week ahead with “FOMC Meeting Minutes” being the most important one which can move the prices in either direction but the trend remains bearish as the breakdown was respected and the price closed fairly below that level. On the chart – Gold after suffering the breakdown continued its downtrend creating lower highs and lower lows formation. The red trendline was respected suggesting the upside may now remain capped and rallies are getting sold into. With global risk-on trade having a fresh life its difficult for gold to hang on at high levels unless trend changes again. On the chart – 1. Bulls remain on sidelines as the breakdown was tested and respected excepting scalp trading. 2. Gold closed below the support line, till this is held it can move towards $1284. Once this is crossed it can slide to $1273. And if this is broken it can fall further to $1260. Bullish bets remain out of contention until gold resumes the uptrend by giving a positive breakout from the flag. Bearish view – Bears continued the assault as they eroded the prices further creating a new weekly low along with nibbling away the gains by $1. Bears were active throughout the week as the prices were pegged back from highs every time adding more strength to the trend. Fundamentals seem to be working in favor of bears and till the support of the breakdown line is held prices can fall further towards the next major support area of $1236-$1240. On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bearish and prices are expected to head lower. Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel. Gold can be sold under $1289 for the targets of $1284 and $1273 with a stop loss placed above $1298. Longer term target $1260. A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.
TVC:GOLDShort
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 21-25Gold finally broke the trading range it had been into from many weeks on the downside as it slid past $1300 comfortably and posted a nearly $20 weekly loss. This kind of movement was getting over-due and a fatigue was kind of setting in when the price action was taken into account. Fundamentally the events did not favor the rising prices thus allowing it to breach the crucial $1300 mark on the way down. Gold might find its feet soon as big downside even after the range expansion is not on the cards given the global factors which might keep the prices buoyed. On the chart – Gold’s breakdown suggests temporarily the bulls have gone in for a pause again. Support levels were taken out without much of a hassle though gold found support at lower and old support areas. Going back above $1300 might take some extra push from the bulls. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold tested it support at $1285 and bounced back, if this is held it may try to peg back towards $1295. If this is crossed it can go higher till $1308. If this is also crossed it can rally till $1317. Though long trades are not the favorites as range has broken on the downside. 2. Gold’s closing below the $1300 and its support level indicates more pain. This offers good opportunity for short trades which went missing from past many weeks. If $1295 is held it can fall lower to $1281. If this is breached it can have a dash towards the channel support at $1265. Bullish view – There is some hope for the bulls as the prices bounced off from the 38.2 Fib level which also may act as a strong support going forward. If this is held then a rally back towards $1300 and higher cannot be ruled out. But in order to turn bullish prices need to conquer $1300 back or need to take support at channel lows or Fib retracement levels. Bearish view – Bears were very ferocious this time as they eroded the critical $1300 mark by a good margin and that too on the closing basis. Such a close denotes more downside as key supports were breached. For bears, its a their time now after weeks of range bound activity as price action clearly favors them. For bears to continue pilling up the pressure they must not allow $1300 to be crossed. On the larger terms, Gold has broken the range on the downside and more negativity is on the cards. Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1298 for the targets of $1308 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1290. Gold can be sold under $1288 for the targets of $1281 and $1265.
TVC:GOLDShort
by vanimator