Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD July 18, 2025
🔍 Momentum Analysis
D1 Timeframe: Momentum is showing signs of a bullish reversal. While we need to wait for today's D1 candle to close for confirmation, it's likely that yesterday’s upward move marks Wave 1, signaling the beginning of a new bullish trend.
H4 Timeframe: Momentum is preparing for a bearish reversal → suggesting a potential corrective pullback, likely forming Wave 2.
H1 Timeframe: Momentum is about to reverse upward → supporting the expectation of a short-term bullish move during the current session.
🌀 Elliott Wave Structure Update
On the H4 chart, the abcde triangle correction structure remains largely unchanged.
However, a strong H4 bullish candle appeared yesterday, indicating unusual market behavior that deserves attention.
There are two main scenarios:
Wave 1 (black) has already completed, and the market is now entering Wave 2 correction.
Alternatively, the current movement could be Wave 4 within Wave 1 (black).
🔎 Combining Momentum & Wave Structure
With D1 momentum signaling a potential uptrend lasting the next 4–5 days, it suggests that Wave e (blue) may have completed.
This opens the door for an impulsive 5-wave advance. Specifically:
If H1 continues its bullish reversal, the current move could be Wave 5 of Wave 1 (black), targeting the 3358 level.
Afterwards, a retracement toward the 3330–3323 zone would form Wave 2 (black).
Alternatively, price might drop directly to 3330–3323, implying Wave 1 has already finished and the current move is Wave 2.
🎯 => Both scenarios converge at the 3330–3323 price zone, making it a high-probability BUY ZONE.
🧭 Trade Plan
BUY ZONE: 3330 – 3327
Stop Loss: 3320
Take Profits:
TP1: 3342
TP2: 3358
TP3: 3402
📌 Note: Since this is a relatively wide entry zone, it's best to wait for price action confirmation at this level before entering.
