'CONTINUE' trading with 'CONTINUATION' pattern_2nd Edition_!!!In previous idea of continuation pattern, which comprise explanation of some continuation patterns like triangles, flags and pennants it
was stated that in next post I'll be back with patterns such as head & shoulder , double top and bottoms and we're back.
As we have discussed in the previous section, that market can be either in trending phase or in a range-bound
phase. No trend generally lasts forever in the market. After prolonged or medium or shorter duration up and
downtrend, the market often reverses and a move starts in the opposite direction of the prior move. Often we
find that well defined geometrical patterns are formed in the chart which provides good indication of price
reversals. These patterns are called reversal classical chart patterns. When they are formed as a bullish reversal
pattern they are said to be part of accumulation. On the other hand if they are formed at the top of a price
move just before bearish reversal, then they are part of distribution.
However, a geometrically shaped consolidation does not necessarily mean price reversal. Often price resumes
the erstwhile trend post the consolidation move. These are called continuation classical chart pattern. We will
discuss about few of the classical chart patterns in the following section.
-> Head & Shoulder -:
Head and Shoulder pattern is a bearish reversal pattern. This pattern appears after an uptrend. This pattern is
formed with three consecutive tops with middle one being higher than the other two. The middle top is called
the head and the two side peaks are called the shoulders. On joining the intermediate troughs, we get the
neck-line. On ultimate break below the neckline, usually a short trade is taken with a stop-loss above the top
of the nearest shoulder. The target is usually considered as the distance between the neckline and head,
projected from the point of break. If the volume in the down leg of the right shoulder is on the higher side and
break happens with high volume, the conviction is on the higher side for the reversal.
An Inverse Head and Shoulder is just mirror image of the Head and Shoulder pattern. This should appear
after a sustained down trend, the rule of stop loss and target are similar. This often acts as a very effective
bullish reversal pattern.
-> Double Tops and Bottoms -:
These chart patterns are well-known patterns that signal a trend reversal – these are considered to be one of
the most reliable patterns and are commonly used. These patterns are formed after a sustained trend and
signal to chartists that the trend is about to reverse. These patterns are created when price movement tests
support or resistance levels twice and is unable to break through. These patterns are often used to signal
intermediate and long-term trend reversals.
Double top:
Double bottom:
-> Mechanism of Continuation Pattern -:
Continuation patterns provide some logic to the price action. By knowing the patterns, a trader can create a trading plan to take advantage of common patterns. The patterns present trading opportunities that may not be seen using other methods.
Unfortunately, simply because the pattern is called a "continuation pattern" does not mean it is always reliable. A pattern may appear during a trend, but a trend reversal may still occur. It is also quite possible that, once we have drawn the pattern on our charts, the bounds may be slightly penetrated, but a full breakout does not occur. This is called a false breakout and could occur multiple times before the pattern is actually broken and a continuation or a reversal occurs. Rectangles, due to their popularity and easy visibility, are highly susceptible to false breakouts.
Patterns can also be subjective, as what one trader sees is not what another trader sees, or how another trader would draw or define the pattern in real time. This is not necessarily a bad thing, as it can provide traders with a unique perspective on the market. It will require time and practice for the trader to develop his or her skill in finding patterns, drawing them and formulating a plan on how to use them.
My Observation -: These geometrical patterns are formed after a trend in that particular stock, it generally resumes the previous trend after being out of the pattern but some times it reverses the previous trend hence, it is advised to wait for the conformation to play the pattern.
And we can use RSI for conformation i.e. if you are seeing pattern breakout then just check if RSI is greater than 60 and if not than the chances of fakeout is more also in case of breakdown just check if RSI is below 40 else it can reverse.
#Enjoy_trading
Continuationpatterns
Descending Triangle - Full ExpanationWhat is descending triangle ??
The descending triangle is one of the top continuation patterns that appears mid-trend. Traders anticipate the market to continue in the direction of the larger trend and develop trading setups accordingly.
The descending triangle is a bearish pattern that is characterized by a descending upper trendline and a flat lower trendline that acts as support. This pattern indicates that sellers are more aggressive than buyers as price continues to make lower highs. The pattern completes itself when price breaks out of the triangle in the direction of the overall trend.
Element Of Descending Triangle
The descending triangle is fairly easy to spot once traders know what to look for. The below method can be applied to all financial markets.
1.)Downtrend: The market must be in a downtrend before the descending triangle pattern appears. This is important and emphasises that traders should not simply trade the pattern whenever the descending triangle appears.
2.)Consolidation: The descending triangle then appears while the market enters the consolidation phase.
3.Flat Lows Or Flat Line Lower trendline: The lower trendline acts as support. Price often approaches this level and bounces off until the breakout eventually occurs.
4.)Decsending or Lower Highs: While the market is consolidating, a downward sloping trendline can be drawn by connecting the highs. This downward sloping trendline shows that sellers are slowly pulling the price down – which provides further support for a bearish trading bias.
5.)Breakdown & Trend Continuation: After price posts a strong break below the lower trendline, traders will look for confirmation of the pattern via continued downward momentum.
Calculating Target
The descending triangle, often referred to as the ‘falling triangle’, has an inherent measuring technique that can be applied to the pattern to gauge likely take profit targets.
For the descending triangle, traders can measure the distance from the start of the pattern, at the highest point of the descending triangle to the flat support line. That same distance can be transposed later on, starting from the breakout point and ending at the potential take profit level.
The illustration below shows the distance from A to B can be transferred lower down, from C to D, in order to project a possible take profit level.
How to trade Descending triangle
When trading the descending triangle, traders need to identify the downtrend and this can be seen in the BANKNIFTY 15 Min chart below. Thereafter, the descending triangle appears as the candlesticks start to consolidate. The measuring technique can be applied once the triangle forms, as traders anticipate the breakout.
After viewing a strong break below support, traders can enter a short position, setting a stop at the recent swing high and take profit target in line with the measuring technique.
BULLISH FLAG PATTERN EXPLAINED.Bullish flags are a continuation pattern found in stocks with a strong uptrend. As can be observed, the pattern resembles a flag
on a pole. The vertical rise forms the pole and the following period of consolidation forms the flag. The flag can be a horizontal rectangle
but mostly angles down from the pole. The focus should be more on the underlying psychology of the pattern than the shape. Despite the
strong vertical rally, the stock refuses to drop much because the bulls are buying as many shares they can get their hands on.
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Main characteristics of a flag pattern:
1. The trend before the appearance of the pattern.
2. The channel of consolidation.
3. The volume behavior.
4. The breakout.
5. The confirmation of price movement in the direction of the breakout.
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Target and Volume:
The target for a bull flag is calculated by measuring the length of the flag pole and projecting it from the breakout point. The volume
starts to pick up towards the end of the consolidation range indicating the oncoming breakout. Then there is a huge increase in volume
when the pole is being formed and the volume tapers off during the consolidation period.
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Stop Loss Options:
1. Longer term traders may place their stop loss below the entire flag.
2. A stricter option would be just below the consolidation are before the breakout.
3. The tightest option would be a two bar low trailing stop.
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Thoughts:
No one can know for sure which way the price will move, whether it will continue or reverse. One can follow the action of price,
trade only the best setups and let the probabilities work out. While patterns may give false signals, bullish flags are generally reliable
and effective.
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Alert:
Keep an eye out for price action unravelling currently. Price is pulling back to the 20 EMA, forming a consolidation, a flag of sorts.
A continuation candle near the average with decent volumes could be the sign of a fresh move upwards.
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Will be very grateful for a like and follow. :)
Trend Continuation PatternBullish Flag Chart Pattern: Tata Chemicals
Description:
The flag represents a brief pause in a dynamic market move & one of the requirements for a flag pattern is that it should proceed by a sharp and almost straight-line move.
It represents situations where a step advance or decline has gotten ahead of itself, and where the market pauses briefly to "catch its breath " before running off again in the same direction.
Construction of Flag & Pole pattern:
The flag resembles a parallelogram or rectangle market by two parallel trendlines that tend to slope against the prevailing trend.
The flag usually occurs after a sharp move & represents a brief pause in the trend.
The flag should slope against the trend. Volume should dry up during the formation & built again on the breakout .
How to trade flag and pole patterns:
The sideways period is often followed by another sharp rise. This is where the trading opportunity comes in. Once the flag pole and a flag or have formed, traders watch for the price to breakout above the upper flag/trend line. When this occurs, enter a long trade.
Conclusion:
1-Flag patterns are a commonly used technical analysis tool and majorly a choice of breakout traders and swing traders.
2- Flag is formed when there is a minor profit booking in either an uptrend or a downtrend.
3- The pole is formed by a line that represents the primary trend in the market.
4- It is important that flags are preceded by a sharp advance or decline.
RISING WEDGE PATTERN ( REVERSAL OR CONTINUATION )Reversal or Continuation Pattern
Rising Wedge
Prices are moving upward, forming higher highs and higher lows, but the price is confined within two lines which get closer together to create a pattern. This indicates a slowing of momentum and it usually precedes a reversal to the downside. This means that you can look for potential selling opportunities.
IDENTIFICATION GUIDELINES
1. The Shape of The Rising wedge – Two price trendlines both sloping upwards, the upper one following higher highs and the lower one following higher lows. Both trendlines must slope upwards and eventually intersect.
2. Formation of The Rising Wedge – Prices should rise to hit the upper trendline at least three highs(1-3-5), then fall away. Prices should fall to the lower trendline at least twice(2-4), then rise again before a final breakout. When you see less than 3 swing highs and 2 swing lows between the upsloping trendlines, be cautious about it.
3. Duration of The Rising wedge- The Rising Wedge has a minimum duration of 3 weeks and it rarely exceeds 3 or 4 months long. Anything less than 3 weeks of duration likely to be a pennant formation, not a rising wedge.
4. Volume inside The Rising Wedge – Volumes tends to be decreasing through the formation.
5. Pre-mature or False Breakout – Because volume is usually low in The Rising Wedge formation, it takes very little activity to bring about an erratic and false movement in price, talking the price outside of trendlines.
6. Breakout – Price closing below the lower rising trendline confirms the breakout.
HOW TO TRADE A RISING WEDGE
Trading Rules.
1. Entry – Sell short the stock day after Prices closing below the lower rising trendline. If you miss it, wait for the pullback then short when price resumes the breakout direction after the throwback completes. When you missed and, If you Don’t Get A pullback to the lower rising trendline then Don’t Chase The Stock Price for selling short.
2. Price Target – The technical target is the price which was a starting point of the lower rising trendline.
3. Taking Profit – For short-term traders, cover short when the price reaches near to the price which was a starting point for the lowe rising trendline. For intermediate and long-term traders, hold the stock as per your risk & capital management applied before entering into a trade.
4. Stoploss – usually, price closing above swing high or top is a stop-loss. But very often, The gap between swing high and breakout price is very high. So it won’t be suitable for a good risk-reward ratio. Without a Good Risk to Reward ratio in trading or investing can never create a wealth. Always Pay close attention to Risk-Reward Ratio. We must have RR above 1: 2.




