Get started

Correction

GOLD@ 3890 : Bubble Peak or Just a Pit-Stop?Pullback vs. Correction The 100th-Idea Deep Dive !! Gold has moved almost 88% in the last two years to new records. The main drivers are falling real yield expectations with an easing bias, persistent geopolitical risk, record central bank buying and the 2025 rebound in ETF demand. Geopolitics is shifting as Washington pushes for a Gaza ceasefire. Headlines talk about partial acceptance and ultimatums but nothing is done yet. The war premium can fade step by step though headline shocks will still remain. Key levels:- Resistance 3890–4000 Pullback zone 3640–3650 (5%) Correction zone 3475–3480 (11%) Weekly RSI stretched into high 70s and 80s → risk of mean reversion before any bigger change. Macro gears:- Real yields and the dollar:- Lower real yields = higher gold. That is the key lever. As rate cuts and softer real rates were priced into 2025, gold repriced hard. Central bank sponsorship:- Official demand has been consistent three years in a row. 2022 at 1082t, 2023 at 1037t, 2024 at 1045t. This is rare in modern data and explains why dips are shallow. ETF flows:- After outflows in 2024, 2025 turned. Three straight months of inflows into August, strongest since 2020, YTD around 588t. Pure fuel ✨ Geopolitics & the premium:- From 2023 to 2025 Middle East risk kept term premia elevated. Now Gaza peace talks open a path for that premium to fade. But timelines and enforcement are unclear. Strikes still came even with peace headlines. Means the bleed can be gradual but headline spikes remain.. Pullback or true correction:- 3890–4000 is the confluence zone. Psychological milestone + vertical extension after 88% impulse. Bubble behavior meets supply. Level 1 at 3640 → about -5% pullback. If bids hold, trend resumes. Level 2 at 3470→ -10 to -12% wash into prior shelf. Would be first real reset in two years. Weekly momentum overbought. Phases like this don’t end instantly but forward returns improve after reset. Flows @ CBs rarely chase tops, they buy weakness across months. That softens drawdowns. ETFs are flighty. Peace plus firmer yields can stall inflows. Any Fed pivot or growth wobble can flip them back fast. Possible future paths :- Continuation bubble :- Break 3900 → 4050–4200 Triggers dovish Fed, softer yields, failed peace, ETF flows Tactic = only add above 3900 on daily/weekly close. No chasing wicks. Shallow pullback :-Tag 3630–3660 then rotate Triggers peace holds, modestly firm yields, demand returns Tactic = scale in near 3640–3650 if H4 shows higher low + reclaim POC. First TP 3780–3820. True correction :- flush 3520–3460 Triggers Gaza settlement + real yields higher + ETF stall Tactic = let it wash. Look for capitulation + basing 3480–3460. Best R:R after failed bounce and reclaim. Levels & invalidation:- Bull continuation pivot 3890–3900. Opens 4050–4200. Pullback buy zone 3630(Hvz)–3650 with confirmation. Invalidation H4 <3600. Correction buy zone 3480 ±20 after basing. Invalidation weekly <3420 → opens 3300–3350. If flat → stagger entries and size carefully. If long from lower → trail under last daily HL, book partial 3880–3950. Surprise risk (Imp) ETF squeeze higher – inflows still not at 2020 peak → late cycle melt-up possible. Policy shock – faster cuts or fiscal noise sink yields = blow-off. Strong data → pop in yields = sharp air pocket. Geopolitical whipsaw – peace unravels → $50–100 spike in thin tape!! Bottom line:- This is a two year vertical impulse meeting macro reality at 3890. Level 1 = 3640–3650 pullback line. Level 2 = 3480 correction line. Until weekly breaks, dips are still opportunities not obituaries. But only with structure. No blind catching this high up. Bubbles don’t end quietly – great trends reset then go again ✨ Fade euphoria into 39xx if momentum stalls. Buy fear into 348x if the market finally delivers the reset it owes. Trade safe ⚡ Sparkrlight ♾️✨⚡
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sparkrlight
1
Smart Money Concepts1. Introduction: What is Smart Money Concepts? Smart Money Concepts (SMC) is a modern price action trading methodology that focuses on how big players — institutions, hedge funds, banks, and market makers — move the market. The core belief: price is manipulated by "smart money" to accumulate positions before large moves, and if you can track their footprints, you can ride their moves instead of getting trapped like retail traders. In SMC, you don’t rely on indicators that lag behind price. Instead, you learn to read the raw story of price action: where liquidity lies, where stop hunts happen, and where imbalances push price. Think of it like this: Retail trading is reacting to price. SMC trading is predicting what price will want to do, based on smart money’s needs. 2. Core Principles of SMC SMC builds around a few non-negotiable principles: 2.1 Market Structure Price moves in waves (higher highs, higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs, lower lows in a downtrend). Smart money manipulates these structures: Break of Structure (BOS): When price breaks a significant swing point in the direction of the trend. Change of Character (ChoCH): A shift in market bias — often the first sign of trend reversal. Example: If we’re in an uptrend and suddenly a major low is broken, this isn’t “random selling.” It’s likely a smart money signal that distribution has started. 2.2 Liquidity Smart money hunts liquidity pools — areas where retail traders have stop-loss orders: Above recent highs → stop-losses of short sellers. Below recent lows → stop-losses of long traders. Why? Because triggering these stops provides the volume big players need to enter large positions without causing huge slippage. 2.3 Order Blocks An Order Block is the last opposite candle before a strong impulsive move. For example: In an uptrend: the last bearish candle before a strong bullish push. In a downtrend: the last bullish candle before a strong bearish push. Order blocks are institutional footprints — zones where smart money likely placed big orders. 2.4 Imbalance & Fair Value Gap (FVG) Sometimes price moves so fast in one direction that it leaves a gap between candles’ wicks — meaning no trades happened in that range. Price often revisits these Fair Value Gaps to “rebalance” the market before continuing. 2.5 Premium & Discount Zones Using Fibonacci retracement, the 50% level divides the market into: Premium (above 50%) → expensive zone for buying, better for selling. Discount (below 50%) → cheap zone for buying, better for selling. Smart money often buys at a discount and sells at a premium. 3. How Smart Money Operates Retail traders believe price moves randomly — smart money knows better. 3.1 Accumulation & Distribution Markets cycle through: Accumulation → Smart money quietly builds positions at low prices. Manipulation → Stop hunts and fake breakouts to mislead retail traders. Distribution → Price moves explosively in their intended direction. 3.2 Stop Hunts Smart money deliberately pushes price to known liquidity areas: Looks like a breakout to retail traders → but reverses right after. This traps breakout traders and activates their stops, providing liquidity. 3.3 Inducement Before moving toward the main liquidity pool, smart money creates a “bait” level to attract retail orders. This induces traders to place stops exactly where smart money wants. 4. SMC Tools & Key Components 4.1 Market Structure Tools Swing highs/lows BOS (Break of Structure) ChoCH (Change of Character) 4.2 Liquidity Identification Equal highs/lows (double tops/bottoms) Trendline liquidity (breakouts) Session highs/lows (London, New York, Asia) 4.3 Order Blocks Bullish OB → for buys Bearish OB → for sells Refined OB → using lower timeframes for precision 4.4 Fair Value Gaps Look for large impulse moves leaving gaps between candle wicks. 4.5 Fibonacci Levels Use 50% as a bias divider, 61.8% & 78.6% for sniper entries. 5. The SMC Trading Process Here’s a step-by-step method to apply SMC: Step 1: Higher Timeframe Bias Start from daily (D1) or 4H charts. Identify market structure (uptrend, downtrend, or range). Mark major BOS and ChoCH points. Step 2: Identify Liquidity Pools Look for equal highs/lows, trendlines, swing points. Mark where retail traders are likely trapped. Step 3: Locate Order Blocks Find the last opposite candle before a strong move. Confirm it aligns with your higher timeframe bias. Step 4: Watch for Imbalance Mark Fair Value Gaps for potential retracements. Step 5: Entry Execution Drop to lower timeframes (5M, 1M) for refined entries. Wait for a lower timeframe BOS in the direction of your trade. Step 6: Risk Management Stop-loss just beyond the order block or liquidity sweep point. Risk 1–2% per trade. 6. Example Trade Setup Imagine EUR/USD is in an uptrend on 4H: 4H BOS confirmed bullish bias. Liquidity found below equal lows at 1.0750. Bullish order block spotted just below 1.0750. Fair Value Gap in that same area. On 5M chart → price sweeps liquidity, taps OB, breaks minor high. Entry after BOS → SL below OB → TP at previous high. 7. SMC vs Traditional Technical Analysis Aspect Traditional TA SMC Indicators Uses RSI, MACD, Moving Averages Pure price action Focus Patterns (Head & Shoulders, etc.) Liquidity, order flow Timing Often late entries Precision entries Mindset Follow trend Follow smart money 8. Common Mistakes in SMC Trading Over-marking charts → clutter leads to confusion. Forcing trades without waiting for confirmation. Ignoring higher timeframe bias. Not managing risk — precision doesn’t mean perfection. 9. Psychology of SMC Trading SMC can give very high RR trades (1:5, 1:10), but the patience required can be tough. You need: Discipline to wait for setups. Emotional detachment from market noise. Confidence to enter when it feels counterintuitive. 10. Final Thoughts: Why SMC Works SMC works because it aligns your trading with the actual drivers of price — the big money. Instead of being prey, you become a shadow of the predator. Key takeaways: Market is a liquidity game. Learn where smart money is likely to act. Trade less, but with sniper precision.
BSE:SENSEXEducation
by TechnicalExpress
1
Nifty50-Macro Risk Update - shows Overheating - Correction Alert📊 Market Observation | August 1, 2025 This Nifty 50 daily chart highlights potential macro risks that may influence investor behavior. 🧠 Key Insights: - Valuations appear stretched on multiple metrics. - Price structure has formed lower highs post-peak. - Macro indicators suggest possible correction ahead. 🟡 Educational Note: If you're holding long-term positions, this may be a good time to revisit portfolio allocations with a focus on capital preservation. 📌 Risk Management Reminder: Capital protection often outweighs return chasing near potential tops. All observations are structure-based and educational. This is not financial advice.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by LEOLALENS-OFFICIAL
Institutional Option Trading Part -2Disadvantages Regulatory scrutiny. Complexity and need for highly skilled traders. Potential market impact. Institutional Investing Institutional investing is the process of managing large-scale investment portfolios with long-term goals. Investment Objectives Capital Preservation: Maintaining the value of assets. Capital Appreciation: Growing the portfolio over time. Income Generation: Providing steady returns through dividends or interest. Asset Classes Used Equities: Shares of publicly traded companies. Fixed Income: Bonds and other debt instruments. Real Estate: Direct investments or REITs. Commodities: Such as gold, oil, or agricultural products. Derivatives: Options, futures, and swaps.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by SkyTradingZone
2
Institutions Option Database TradingDatabase Option Trading is a powerful blend of market logic and data science. With structured data, intelligent scanning, and strategic execution, traders gain a massive edge over emotional/manual decisions. This approach is ideal for traders aiming for consistent performance, lower drawdowns, and systematic growth. The more you code, automate, and analyze—the better you trade. Sample Strategy - PCR + OI Spike Strategy Logic: If PCR > 1.3 and Call OI Spike at ATM > 15%, initiate a Put Sell. Exit when PCR drops below 1.1 or OI unwinds. Backtest Results (NIFTY Options): Win Rate: 72% Avg Profit per Trade: ₹4800 Max Drawdown: ₹9800
NSE:HDFCBANKEducation
by SkyTradingZone
2
Advanced Institutions Option Trading - Part 7Time Decay (Theta) Strategies Options lose value over time due to Theta Decay. Strategies to Take Advantage of Theta: Selling options (Covered Calls, Naked Puts) Calendar Spreads Iron Butterflies Caution: Theta decay accelerates as expiry nears. Option sellers must hedge their deltas to stay safe. Risk Management in Options Institutions and pro traders always focus on capital protection. 🔐 Techniques: Position sizing (no more than 2-3% risk per trade) Hedging with opposite legs or underlying Stop-loss on premium or delta exposure Use of Greeks for real-time adjustment Risk management > Strategy in the long run.
NSE:TCSEducation
by SkyTradingZone
2
silver in triangle breakout. Two possibilities. one is impulisveElliott Wave Analysis:- 1st possibility:- Silver is in a triangle breakout . if it is getting towards upside breakout then we have a nice opportunity of pullback and and we can add it if the pullback occurs. else we can enjoy this journey quietly. 2nd possibility:- Silver had already made a pullback towards down side breakout. Once it start the way it will fly towards downside and then it will complete a C wave in whole B wave then upside C wave will be impulsive. This type 2 will be discussed in next chart. I will post it as seperately chart for clear understanding . I am not a SEBI registered advisor. Before taking a trade do your own analysis or consult a financial advisor. I share chart for education purpose only. I share my trade setup.
TVC:SILVER
by n0m0ret0ss
End of correction in Hinduja Global SolutionsElliott wave analysis:- A long bear trend has been almost over and we may expect a slight fall from here or the Candle may rise to stars from here. if you wish to be cautious then wait for a pullback for almost 65% to 78%. keep the previous low as your stop loss go for a long ride. i am not a SEBI registered advisor. Before taking a trade do your own analysis or consult a financial advisor. I share chart for education purpose only. I share my trade setup.
NSE:HGS
by n0m0ret0ss
8
Nifty 50 - Mar 2025 view - Is the correction over?If you have followed my last 2 views of Nifty50, you would be smiling definitely only if you didn't have any swings open. We have seen a good correction in market since September 2024. It was much needed in market since 2022 , we have seen an extended move in Indian markets. I know mid and smallcaps have corrected more than 20% but they were bound for it because of overvaluation. We are in a slowdown phase of economy and earnings of those company wont match expectations. Coming back to Nifty50, is the correction over? IAnswe is cant be sure but 1 thing is definite, 21800-22000 will act as strong demand zone as we have seen a quick 600 points jump from 22000. However, I will suggest to wait for confirmation for any new swings. What next? Nifty might be retesting 22800 breakdown. It can fall again towards 21800 and if it breaks 21800 which looks very less probable, 21000-21200 is a very very strong demand zone which should be the last zone for correction. If Nifty manages to jump from 22000, it will be formation of W pattern(double bottom) which will be a sign of reversal. That's when you can start accumulating. Expecting March to be sideways to bearish again. We might see a selling due to people booking losses for tax harvesting. If 21800-22000 holds in March, we can see buying in April which will take it to 23900. Be patient. Start analyzing stocks for accumulating. Stay healthy and wealthy!
NSE:NIFTY
by chartistamey
Advanced Option Trading with Professionals Let's review each part of the professional trader's mind to understand where you want to be, ideally as you develop as an online trader. Discipline and Consistency. ... Emotional Control. ... Continuous Learning. ... Fundamental Analysis. ... Technical Analysis. ... Sentiment Analysis. ... Goal Setting. ... Risk Management. When options are better. Options can be a better choice when you want to limit risk to a certain amount. Options can allow you to earn a stock-like return while investing less money, so they can be a way to limit your risk within certain bounds. Options can be a useful strategy when you're an advanced investor.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by SkyTradingZone
3
Possible Wave Counts on Daily Time Frame Chart of DXYMost investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! In this study we used Elliott Wave Theory & Structures, here we have plotted possible wave counts on daily time frame chart of DXY Dollar Index, it involves multiple possibilities, and the analysis presented focuses on one potential scenario. The provided information is for educational purposes only, not trading advice. There's a risk of being completely wrong. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
TVC:DXYShort
by RK_Chaarts
HDFC - Will it take U-Turn ? - Close from 1800 Disclaimer: Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell. WaveTalks - Market Whispers! Can you hear them?........... Will the Giant Take a U-Turn after achieving all the targets 1555 was the first in the series .... Possible Reasons for Next Expected Move Possible Double Top at 1794 ( Will be valid until holds below 1800) Pattern Thrust from 1630's - Key level Elliott Wave - Corrective Sequence could be completed from the support zone 1375 - 1390 to 1800 approx highs .or about to end .mentioned in the connecting 1st idea published on 27th Jan 2024 - The Bullish Gartley Bullish Gartley Idea ( 1375 - 1800..) - 1st Idea of the Series in Jan 2024 Enjoying Target 1 - 1555 in April 2024 Nifty at 26000 - We are almost close to 27600's Target ...Can we achieve the dream run or we correct & later push towards From WaveTalks Good Night
NSE:HDFCBANKShort
by WaveTalks
7
Nifty IT Levels For Long or swing TradingNifty IT Chart Overview: Current Value: ₹24,7801. Recent Performance: 1 day: +0.76% 5 days: +1.47% 1 month: +2.40% 6 months: +12.59% Year to date: +15.11% 1 year: +29.61% 5 years: +127.45% Key Data Points: Volume: Not specified Previous close: Not specified Open: Not specified Day’s range: Not specified Recent Analyst Views (August 22nd): Price was moving in a wide range for two days and broke out above the consolidation range. Buy Above: ₹24,780 Stop Loss: ₹24,740 Targets: ₹24,820, ₹24,860, ₹24,890, and ₹24,920 Sell Below: ₹24,680 Stop Loss: ₹24,720 Targets: ₹24,640.
NSE:CNXITLong
by Optionclub
Nifty: Bull market aeging, could lose steam from here !!The only train you should jump off when it's going at full speed, and not when it's slowing down, is a raging bull market Train. lndian equity markets have had a good run in 2023 and 2024 but now could lose stream for a temporary period. In a Bull market, Ideally a "Horse" should be used as an indicator of the rally seen in the markets as it can run long distances at a fast pace. A "Bull", he can at best do a short sprint and needs occasional breaks/pauses to catch is breath before charging again. Now a consensus opinion is that market will give breakout on upside but as per my limited study, now its time to book profits on portfolio, create liquidity as it can give breakout on downside as per advanced patterns, market will again give opportunity at lower levels. A 8-10% correction will be healthy for the upcoming bull run and the Market Breadth, correction can either start from may or after election outcome but its imminent.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Chinmayonniftyy
1