Bitcoin Bounce Alert: Holding the $100K Fortress! 📉 Market Context & Technical Levels
Key support at ~$100K: As the chart shows and multiple analysts confirm, this level continues to act as a strong defence zone. Cointelegraph noted bulls have been “defending the $100K key support level strongly,” triggering bounces during dips
Descending channel overhead: Bitcoin has retraced into a downward channel. A clean breakout above ~107K–109K (past recent peaks) is needed to signal a bullish shift .
Liquidity target at ~106K: Plenty of orders await in that region—flipping it to support may pave the way for another push higher .
📊 Indicators & Momentum
RSI dip near 25 during the latest drop indicates oversold conditions—often a precursor to rebounds
.
Volume surge on rebounds suggests absorbing sell pressure and strong accumulation interest at lower levels.
🚩 Key Price Zones to Watch
Level Significance
$100K Crucial support; losing it risks a slide toward $95K–97K or even $92K
.
$105K–106K Liquidity zone; flipping here as support could confirm upward momentum .
$107K–109K Resistance from channel tops and prior highs; a successful break is key to next leg up .
$112K–$112K+ If breakout occurs, upside targets extend toward prior ATH near $112K and beyond .
🎯 Chart Analysis Summary
Your chart shows three distinct bounces from the $100K–100.7K supply zone (highlighted in blue) and the latest one includes a sharp wick and rebound. This aligns with broader market dynamics emphasizing support at $100K and building liquidity at $106K. The arrow projection signals a probable retest of ~106K, with room to challenge ~107–109K after consolidation.
🧭 Trade Outlook
Bullish scenario: Hold above $100K → reclaim $106K → trendline breakout → potential rally to $112K+.
Bearish risk: Fails support at $100K → breakdown toward $95K–92K region.
📌 Bottom Line
Support $100K is alive and well. Bounces have been crisp and volume-backed.
Next test lies at $105–106K. That’s the battleground—flip it, and we may see bitcoin reclaim recent highs.
Watch the channel overhead (~107K–109K). A breakout could open the door to fresh records.
✅ Conclusion: BTC is defending its psychological base firmly. If this zone holds once more, the path to $106K and beyond is in focus. Breaking above demands conviction, but it’s the pivot to watch.
Cryptomarket
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-1Risk and Return in Indian Investments:
Stock Market: High risk, high reward.
Mutual Funds: Moderate risk.
Fixed Deposits and Government Bonds: Low risk, lower returns.
Gold: Medium risk, often used as a hedge.
Factors Influencing Investment Choices:
Risk Appetite
Investment Horizon
Tax Benefits
Liquidity
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-6Mutual Funds in India:
Mutual funds pool money from multiple investors and invest in a diversified portfolio.
Types:
Equity Mutual Funds
Debt Mutual Funds
Hybrid Funds
Index Funds & ETFs
Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) is a popular method to invest monthly with discipline.
Government Schemes:
PPF (Public Provident Fund)
NSC (National Savings Certificate)
EPF (Employees Provident Fund)
These are safe, tax-efficient, and suitable for conservative investors.
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-5Stock Market Investing:
Stock investing involves buying shares of publicly traded companies listed on NSE or BSE.
Why Indians Invest in Stocks:
Potential for higher returns.
Dividend income.
Portfolio diversification.
Approaches to Investing:
Fundamental Analysis: Based on financial health, growth potential, and management quality.
Technical Analysis: Based on price patterns, volumes, and charts.
Long-Term Investing: Holding stocks for years to build wealth.
Short-Term Trading: Buying and selling stocks within days or weeks.
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-4Recent Growth of Options in India:
Retail participation has surged.
Weekly expiry options (especially on Bank Nifty) have become extremely popular.
SEBI introduced lot size and margin regulations to control excessive speculation.
Investing in India
What is Investing?
Investing means allocating money into assets like stocks, mutual funds, bonds, gold, or real estate to earn returns over time.
Major Investment Options in India:
Equities (Shares)
Mutual Funds
Fixed Deposits
Public Provident Fund (PPF)
Gold (Physical and Digital)
Real Estate
Bonds and Debentures
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-2Option Greeks in India:
Delta: Measures sensitivity to price changes.
Theta: Measures time decay.
Vega: Measures sensitivity to volatility.
Gamma: Measures change in Delta.
Indian traders use these Greeks to manage risk and optimize strategies.
Risks in Indian Option Trading:
Premium Decay: Loss in value as expiry approaches.
High Volatility: Can cause sudden losses.
Liquidity Risk: Some options have low trading volume.
Complexity: Requires deep market knowledge.
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-10Popular Option Strategies in India:
Buying Call Options: Profit when the market rises.
Buying Put Options: Profit when the market falls.
Covered Call: Holding a stock and selling a call option to earn premiums.
Protective Put: Buying a put option to safeguard stock holdings.
Iron Condor: Earning from a range-bound market using multiple options.
Straddle and Strangle: Benefiting from high volatility.
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-3In India, options are traded primarily on:
NSE (National Stock Exchange)
BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange)
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) regulates the derivatives market and ensures fair practices.
Why is Option Trading Popular in India?
Leverage: Traders can control large positions with small capital.
Hedging: Investors use options to protect their portfolios from market fluctuations.
Income Generation: Strategies like covered calls can provide regular income.
Speculation: Traders can bet on price movements with limited risk.
Learn Advanced Institutional TradingOption trading is a part of the derivatives market where investors buy and sell contracts known as options. These contracts derive their value from an underlying asset, which can be a stock, index, commodity, or currency.
In India, the most commonly traded options are based on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and stocks like Reliance, TCS, Infosys, etc.
Options give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) before or on the expiry date.
Types of Options:
Call Option: Gives the buyer the right to buy the underlying asset.
Put Option: Gives the buyer the right to sell the underlying asset.
Option TradingIndia’s financial markets are rapidly evolving, and the participation of retail investors, institutions, and foreign players has significantly increased over the past two decades. Among various investment avenues, option trading, equity investing, and gold trading have become the most prominent ways of wealth creation and hedging against risks. Each of these segments has its unique importance, strategies, and regulatory frameworks in India.
This guide will help you understand the core concepts, market structure, strategies, and risks associated with Indian Option Trading, Equity Investing, and Gold Trading in a simple and practical manner.
BITCOIN back to 93k! It's happening....Bitcoin breaking the structure in higher timeframe lead to massive fall in a short term.
I mean bitcoin is going to fall around -10%(93k) this week or within next week.
Dollar is getting stronger with geopolitical tensions as you guys know the middle East conflict.
You guys may think , it is not a right time to enter to sell, yes I agree but there is much more to capitalise in the further down.
These are all my view , not a financial advise.
Ethereum Accumulation Zones Huge Dip Incoming- Ethereum is currently trading at 2262, down more than 22%
- Ethereum has two important areas to look at, and some important zones like 2110 & the OTEs 1694-1880$
- From an accumulation perspective, I would like to wait for ETH to purge either below the Inefficient gap or start going sideways at the buying zones
- To confirm this bias, we also need to make sure we consider taking a look at USDT D as well once it tops out, ETHs bottom will be near
- Manage risk properly and try to only trade in Spot
Compression Before Expansion: Market Awaits Its Next MoveBTCUSD – Compression Before Expansion: Market Awaits Its Next Move
Bitcoin is trading within a compressed structure after rejecting key resistance and retesting support. While the overall sentiment remains cautious, the technical setup is beginning to show signs of strength — if buyers can reclaim control.
🧭 Macro Check-In: Calm Before the Crypto Storm?
No rate cut from the Fed yet, but markets are starting to price in the possibility of a pause in Q3 or Q4.
ETF inflows slowing, but institutional positions are not closing — suggesting long-term conviction remains.
Political momentum in the US is shifting towards crypto adoption, with Bitcoin emerging as a talking point in election debates.
Dollar index (DXY) continues to chop, giving crypto room to breathe if inflation data remains mild.
In short: liquidity is building, but the trigger hasn’t fired — yet.
📊 Chart Structure (H1–H4): Levels That Matter
BTC is holding just above 103,100, a key level where previous demand stepped in.
The mid-range resistance lies at 104,184 — this needs to break for bulls to gain short-term control.
Above that, eyes are on 106,047, then 107,586 (top of the descending channel).
EMA alignment is still bearish → wait for structure shift, not FOMO.
📌 Trade Map
🔵 Buy Setup
Zone: 103,100 – 103,300
Condition: Bullish reaction + rejection wick / engulfing
SL: 102,600
TP: 104,184 → 106,047 → 107,586
🔴 Sell Setup (Only if trap triggers)
Zone: 107,500 – 107,800
Condition: Rejection + volume fade
SL: 108,200
TP: 106,000 → 104,500
🧠 Trader Insight
“When the chart compresses, smart money positions early.”
Bitcoin is not trending — it's accumulating or distributing. Retail is waiting for breakout. Smart traders are preparing for both scenarios.
Watch the reaction, not the prediction.
Stay objective. Let levels lead the logic.
Institutions Option Database Trading Part-5 Risk Management in Option Trading
Even with data, risk control is key:
Max 2% capital risk per trade.
Hedge with opposite option.
Avoid low liquidity options.
Always track IV, PCR, OI live.
Building a Custom Option Scanner
With databases and logic, you can create a personal scanner for:
High IV options
OI breakout zones
PCR + Max Pain alert
Theta-rich expiry trades
Institutions Option Database Trading Part-4Advanced traders use machine learning to forecast:
Option price movement
Volatility changes
IV spikes before events
Popular Models:
Random Forest → Trend direction.
LSTM (Deep Learning) → Predict future IV.
Logistic Regression → Probability of ITM expiry.
These are trained on millions of past trades using structured databases.
Institutions Option Database Trading Part-6Deep Dive into Options Basics (For Data Traders)
Options are contracts giving the right but not the obligation to buy or sell an asset at a certain price before a set date. They are used for hedging, speculation, and generating income.
🛠️ Two Types:
Call Option: Right to buy an asset.
Put Option: Right to sell an asset.
Backtesting means testing a strategy using past data to check performance. Key for data-driven option trading.
Example:
Load 1-year option chain data for BANKNIFTY.
Apply rules: Buy Call when IV drops by 10% & PCR < 0.8.
Check PnL for each trade.
Filter for success rate > 65%.
Long Term Database TradingHow Institutions Use Option Databases
🔍 Institutional Insights:
Banks & HFTs (High-Frequency Traders) run option strategies over petabytes of data.
Real-time arbitrage opportunities are found using option databases.
They model Vega, Theta & IV impact per stock and expiry.
Example Institutional Workflow:
Pull 10 years of NIFTY options.
Train ML model to predict next-day IV.
Execute based on high-probability straddles/strangles.
Exit before expiry using trailing delta hedge.
INJ Long Swing Setup – Approaching Fibonacci & Major SupportInjective (INJ) is nearing a key support zone that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This confluence area around $10.20–$11.30 offers a strong setup for a potential long swing trade.
📌 Trade Setup:
• Entry Zone: $10.20 – $11.30
• Take Profit Targets:
o 🥇 $14.00 – $16.00
o 🥈 $20.00 – $23.00
• Stop Loss: Daily close below $9.00
Learn Institution Trading Part -6Introduction to Institutional Option Trading
Institutional option trading refers to the sophisticated strategies used by hedge funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, proprietary trading firms, and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to manage portfolios, hedge risks, and generate consistent alpha from the derivatives market. Unlike retail traders, institutions operate with large capital, access to advanced technology, and deep market insights, allowing them to structure complex trades.
2. Why Institutions Trade Options
Institutions don’t usually trade options for quick profits. Their trades are designed to meet broader objectives:
Hedging Equity Portfolios
Volatility Trading
Generating Yield on Holdings
Market Making and Arbitrage
Directional or Non-directional Speculation
3. Core Institutional Option Strategies
Let’s explore the most popular strategies that institutions use with real-world logic behind them.
A. Covered Call (Buy-Write)
Use: Income generation from long-term stock holdings
Structure: Buy stock + Sell Call Option (OTM or ATM)
Institutional Use Case:
A mutual fund holding Reliance shares might sell monthly call options against its holdings to generate monthly income (premium), enhancing total returns.
Learn Institution Trading What is Institutional Option Trading?
It refers to large-scale option strategies used by hedge funds, banks, and FIIs to manage risk, hedge portfolios, or create directional bets with high precision.
🔹 Key Institutional Strategies:
Buy-Write (Covered Call):
Holding stocks and selling calls to earn premium.
Protective Put:
Buying puts as insurance to hedge stock positions.
Multi-leg Spreads (Iron Condor, Butterfly):
Neutral strategies to profit from range-bound markets.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis (PCR):
Gauging market sentiment from institutional flow.
Advanced Divergence Trading What is Divergence?
Divergence happens when the price moves in the opposite direction of an indicator (like RSI, MACD, or Momentum). It signals a possible trend reversal or trend weakening.
🔹 Types of Divergence:
Regular Divergence (Trend Reversal):
Bullish: Price makes lower lows, but indicator makes higher lows → Reversal up
Bearish: Price makes higher highs, but indicator makes lower highs → Reversal down
Hidden Divergence (Trend Continuation):
Bullish: Price makes higher lows, indicator makes lower lows → Trend continuation up
Bearish: Price makes lower highs, indicator makes higher highs → Trend continuation down
🔹 Advanced Tips:
Use on higher timeframes for accuracy
Confirm with volume, trendlines, or price action
Combine with support/resistance or Fibonacci zones
🔹 Pro Tools to Use:
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
Stochastic Oscillator
OBV (On Balance Volume)
Support and Resistance ExplainedWhat is Support?
Support is a price level where a stock tends to stop falling due to increased buying interest. Traders view it as a demand zone where bulls often enter the market.
Example: If Reliance repeatedly bounces from ₹2,700, that level is acting as support.
🔹 What is Resistance?
Resistance is a level where a stock tends to stop rising due to selling pressure. It's a supply zone where bears usually take control.
Example: If Nifty keeps failing to cross 23,500, it's a resistance level.
🔹 Why They Matter:
Help in identifying entry and exit points
Show where trend reversals may occur
Aid in setting stop-loss and targets
🔹 How to Spot Them:
Look for price bounces or rejections
Use tools: horizontal lines, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements
Confirm with volume spikes
🔹 Key Strategy:
Buy near support (low risk)
Sell near resistance (high probability)
Trade breakouts or reversals with confirmation
Support and Resistance Support Level:
A price level where demand is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further. It's like a floor—buyers enter here expecting prices to rise.
Example: If Nifty falls to 22,000 repeatedly and bounces back, 22,000 becomes a support level.
🔹 Resistance Level:
A price level where selling pressure overcomes buying, preventing prices from rising. It's like a ceiling—sellers dominate at this level.
Example: If Bank Nifty rises to 50,000 but fails to move above, 50,000 is resistance.
📊 How to Identify Them:
Historical price charts
Trendlines
Moving averages
Fibonacci levels
Volume analysis
📈 Use in Trading:
Buy near support
Sell near resistance
Use breakout strategy when price breaches either level