Divergence Masterclass 1 - What is Divergence? Hello all, today we are going to learn about divergence. A simple topic, which often confuses the newbies. I'll keep this thread short since this will lay the groundwork for the upcoming threads. Please go through this thread before proceeding to the next threads.
Foreward
In this thread, I would explain the following as easily and briefly as possible:
1. What is divergence?
2. What are the different types of divergence?
Introduction
When the price of a stock moves in a certain direction, the momentum oscillator should also move in the same direction. Eg. When the Price makes a higher high(HH), the momentum oscillator should also make a higher high(HH). This is called convergence since both, the price and the momentum are converging in the same direction.
In a few circumstances, the momentum oscillator and the price do not follow the same path. This is called Divergence.
What is Divergence?
When the price of an asset is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator, such as an oscillator, it is called divergence. Divergence warns about the underlying weakness in the current trend. The price may or may not reverse at the exact occurrence of the divergence.
Different types of Divergence
Broadly, divergence can be classified as a positive and negative divergence. The positive divergence is also known as the Bullish divergence, while the negative divergence is called a Bearish divergence.
1. Bullish divergence/Positive divergence
Positive divergence signals that the price could start moving higher soon. It is of 2 types:
Regular Bullish divergence
Hidden Bullish divergence
Some illustrations of Bullish divergence:
2. Bearish divergence/Negative divergence
Negative divergence signals that the price may soon start falling to lower levels in the future. It is of 2 types:
Regular Bearish divergence
Hidden Bearish divergence
Some illustrations of Bearish divergence:
Conclusion:
I hope you may have got a better idea about divergence now. I'll post the next thread explaining bullish and bearish divergence separately as I didn't want to clutter this thread.
Useful Tips:
1. You should not rely on divergence solely, as it doesn't provide timely trade signals.
2. Divergence can last a long time without a price reversal occurring.
3. It may NOT play out sometimes. Hence, it is just like any other indicator which has a probability of working out but NOT a certainty.
Divergence
Negative divergence and then positive reversal complete.A bearish(Negative) divergence occurs when the price makes a higher high and RSI makes a lower high.
A Positive Reversal occurs When the price makes a higher low while RSI makes a lower low. Price proceeds to rise. Positive Reversals only occur in Bullish Trends. Positive reversal trendlines are drawn on lows.
Example of positive and negative divergence Divergence occurs when the RSI is increasing and the price movement is either flat or decreasing. Conversely, divergence occurs when the RSI is decreasing and price movement is either flat or increasing.
A bearish(Negative) divergence occurs when the price makes a higher high and RSI makes a lower high. As in the first case. we can see a significant price fall after that.
A bullish(Positive) divergence occurs when price makes lower low or maybe at the same level in some cases and RSI makes a higher low. We can see a price rise after it.
RSI Divergence in MindtreeMindtree is seen having a RSI bearish divergence with Price making a Higher High whereas RSI making lower high. Further follow up need to be assessed before any decision can be taken. If one is on a trade in this stock, it's time to be vigilant for any counter trend move.
BHEL - Inverted Head & Shoulders + DivergenceAn Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern broke out and retested itself inside a bigger Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern.
The same move is expected on the bigger pattern as well.
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Nifty Futures SentimentCan the premium or discount in Index Futures tell us anything about upcoming market moves?
Generally, when discount widens, the bearish mood of the market is increasing. When premium widens, the bullish mood of the market is increasing.
However, sometimes premium may also fall due to:
1. When FII’s are long on the markets, they short Nifty futures as a hedge. Nifty Futures are less volatile than individual stocks. If the stocks move up, the loss in the futures will be relatively less. This selling results in a huge discount on the Nifty Futures.
2. Another reason for Discount happens during result season when Companies declare dividends, Index stocks go ex-dividend and it leads to discount in Nifty.
In the below chart, I ran a 20-day Simple moving average (yellow line) of (Nifty Futures Price – Nifty Spot Price) and a 9-period EMA (aqua line) of the moving average itself.
Observations:
1. A downward crossover is near to a short-term bottom in the market (during bull markets).
2. This also means, traders are not outright bullish on markets when a bottom is formed and participate later on.
3. Markets ended with 5.8 premium on 20th April.
4. This could mean we are near a bottom unless we are in a big bear market like March 2020.
Disclaimer: This is only for educational purposes and should not be considered as investment/trading advice.