DIXON (Weekly) — Wave 4 Bottom Forming?Elliott Wave + Fibonacci Confluence 📈
The weekly chart of Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. is unfolding a textbook Elliott Wave structure.
After a powerful Wave 3 impulse, the stock is currently digesting gains through a complex Wave 4 correction.
Price is now approaching a high-probability demand zone, where Fibonacci retracement meets Elliott Wave theory — often a fertile ground for trend resumption.
Let’s decode the structure and map the strategy ahead. 👇
📉 Technical Structure Breakdown
🔹 1. Elliott Wave Context (Weekly)
Wave 3 (Impulse Peak):
Strong vertical rally completing above ₹20,000, reflecting momentum expansion.
Wave 4 (Ongoing Correction):
A corrective, time-consuming phase — aligning well with the Principle of Alternation.
Internal Structure of Wave 4:
Wave (a): Sharp decline toward ₹12,000
Wave (b): Relief rally / dead-cat bounce into prior resistance
Wave (c): Final corrective leg now testing the Fresh Demand Generation Zone
📌 Key Demand Zone: ₹11,525 – ₹10,925
🔹 2. Fibonacci Confluence (Golden Zone)
The highlighted zone on the chart marks the probable Wave-4 completion area, aligning with:
0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the entire Wave-3 move
A classic Wave-4 retracement depth, which is typically shallow compared to Wave-2
This confluence strengthens the probability of structural support.
🔹 3. Price Action & Volume Clues
Price is attempting to stabilize and bounce from the lower end of the retracement band
Volume expansion at lower levels suggests:
Short covering by late sellers
Early accumulation by informed participants
📊 This behavior is commonly seen near intermediate cycle bottoms.
🎯 Trading & Investment Strategy
🛒 Entry Plan
Aggressive Entry:
Partial position around ₹12,165, with strict risk control
Conservative Entry:
Wait for a weekly reversal candle or strong demand reaction inside
₹10,925 – ₹11,525
🏁 Upside Targets
🎯 Short-Term: ₹15,369 (Previous structure resistance)
🎯 Mid-Term: ₹17,566 (Wave-(b) high / supply zone)
🚀 Long-Term (Wave-5 Projection):
Retest of ATHs with potential extension toward ₹22,000+, if impulse resumes
🛡️ Risk Management
Swing / Mid-Term SL: ₹10,915 (Below demand zone)
Hard Invalidation (Wave Count): ₹8,851
A break below this level invalidates the bullish Elliott Wave structure
⚠️ Position sizing is critical — Wave-4 trades require patience and discipline.
📚 Educational Insights (For Traders)
Principle of Alternation:
Wave-2 was sharp and deep → Wave-4 is expected to be complex / sideways
Why 0.382 Matters:
Wave-4 corrections often terminate near 38.2% retracement of Wave-3
Demand Generation Zones:
Areas where price consolidated before a breakout often act as magnets during corrections
💡 Final View
DIXON remains structurally bullish on the higher timeframe.
While the current correction feels uncomfortable, it is healthy and necessary within a long-term uptrend.
📌 The ₹11k–₹12k zone is a patience zone, where Wave-5 preparation may be underway.
➡️ Question for traders:
Is Wave-4 already complete, or do we see one final flush toward ₹10,900 before lift off?
Share your thoughts below 👇
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only.
I am not a SEBI registered analyst.
Markets are uncertain, and I may be wrong — please manage risk accordingly.
Dixonlevels
Dixon Tech cmp 15807.40 by the Daily Chart viewDixon Tech cmp 15807.40 by the Daily Chart view
- Price Band 14300 to 14500 now acting Support Zone
- Stock Price decently trading above EMA 21-50-100-200
- Volumes are going steady and below avg traded quantity
- Ascending Triangle Pattern breakout attempts are in progress
- Daily Support 15380 > 14718 > 13725 Resistance ATH 15987.95
Dixon Technologies: Market Sentiment and Options StrategyMarket Sentiment Overview
As Dixon Technologies approaches its dividend declaration on September 18, 2024, the options data reflects a balance between bullish sentiment and caution:
- Bullish Indicators:
- Call Options Build-Up: Strong buying activity is observed, especially at the 14,000 and 15,000 strike prices.
- Put-Call Ratio (PCR) at 0.98: This indicates a slightly bullish sentiment, as calls outnumber puts.
- High Open Interest in Calls: A total call OI of 23,51,300, focused on the 14,000 and 15,000 strikes, supports upward momentum in the stock.
- Caution Signals:
- Aggressive Put Buying: Put OI of 9,36,500, mainly concentrated at the 13,000 strike price, signals hedging or caution.
- High Intraday PCR of 50.08: This suggests increased put buying activity, indicating traders are hedging against possible downside.
- Volatility Expectations:
- Implied Volatility (IV): Ranging between 37.66% and 41.8%, which points to the potential for significant price swings.
Key Price Levels
- Resistance: 14,000 – 14,500, with 15,000 acting as a strong cap.
- Support: 13,000 – 13,500, serving as a potential floor.
Recommended Options Strategies
1. Bull Call Spread (Moderately Bullish)
- Strategy: Buy 14,000 Call, Sell 15,000 Call.
- Target: Profitable if Dixon rises toward 15,000.
- Suitability: Ideal for traders with a moderately bullish outlook, offering limited risk and reward.
2. Bear Put Spread (Moderately Bearish)
- Strategy: Buy 13,000 Put, Sell 12,500 Put.
- Target: Gains are realized if Dixon drops toward 12,500.
- Suitability: Suitable for traders anticipating a moderate downside, providing defined risk and reward.
3. Protective Put (Hedging Strategy)
- Strategy: Buy 13,000 or 13,500 Put to hedge against downside risk.
- Purpose: Allows long-term investors to maintain their position while protecting against adverse price movements.
- Suitability: Best for long-term investors looking to manage risk during heightened volatility.
Conclusion
Dixon Technologies’ options data leans towards a bullish bias, with rising call OI at 14,000 and 15,000. However, the increased put activity at 13,000 indicates some hedging and caution. Short-term traders can capitalize on a bull call spread for upside potential or a bear put spread for downside protection. For long-term investors, a protective put is recommended to mitigate risks as volatility rises ahead of the dividend announcement.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. It is important to conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The strategies discussed are based on current market conditions, which are subject to change. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, and we are not liable for any losses incurred from its use.



