01 Feb & 31 Jan ’24 — Nifty Not in a Hurry to Go Anywhere YETI was not able to post the report yesterday as got a severe headache and fever. After closing my screen at 15.30 yesterday, got enough strength to open it today morning at 07.46. Seems like the analysis of Tuesday was more or less true even for today as Nifty and BankNifty went nowhere. The Budget 2024 was a 1hr speech, but it had no major changes - it looked like more of a reforms package. India being a developed country by 2047, I seriously cannot understand the relevance it had in the next year’s budget. The sad part is most of us may not be alive 23 years from now. I thought budget was to outline what is going to happen in the next 12 to 15 months.
Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Nifty has made a double top like pattern of which the bottom 2 points were right at the support line of 21491. That means - we cannot say with confidence if the next move will be bullish or bearish. We were all expecting Nifty to pick up a direction today after the budget announcement and since that did not happen - we may have to wait for further triggers. We would prefer to stay neutral till then.
16mts chart
Due to the Budget event, the premiums on both Nifty and BankNifty were crazy today morning and only cooled off 90mts post the start. We are quite sure most of the traders would have minted a fair share of money today as whichever OTM strike you chose today, it had 2x to 10x unusual juice today. So even if you did not hold till 0, you would have ended up in GREEN. The only issue was for option buyers who would have expected a directional trend today - they would have gone home seeing their strike decaying value for no reason.
63mts chart
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has gained 317pts ~ 1.48%. Most importantly it has crossed 1 support level of 21491. Another interesting part is the open on Jan 01 was 21732 and the close today is 21697 which means for an entire month Nifty has moved less than 35pts. This also means the kind of amount non-directional traders would have minted this month and the plight of directional and trend followers. Staying in a non directional path also means consolidation. Bulls and Bears are reevaluating their army strength and will soon fight it out - we will get a trending move soon as soon as the balance is tipped. For tomorrow - we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and then re-evaluate based on Nifty’s plans. If we pick a direction, we will definitely update in the TV minds section.
