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DXY

USD - IS IT KEEPING THE UPPER HAND AFTER ALL?My today's analysis deals with the fact that it could coming to an end with the correcting, and a further rise in the DXY is in front of us. > We traders know that no one can predict the future and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations. > If the DXY should rise again, it means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets. > This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture. > Which levels are RELEVANT; I have explained in detail in the following pages. TABLE OF CONTENTS - 1. Part = DXY EXPLANATION - 2. Part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS = Monthly - Time frame = Weekly - Time frame = Daily - Time frame - 3. Part = CONCLUSION FIRST PART “INTRODUCTION“ The "DXY" indicator entered on September 28 of this year, the first time since May 2021, in a downward correction. > On this day, I published an analysis, which dealt with a possible top in the DXY. > This forecast turned out to be a precision landing on the day and is to till now the TOP. (My analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes.) To help you understand the relevance of the "DXY Index", let's take a closer look at it. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a ratio (index) that compares the value of the U.S. dollar using a basket of six currencies. > EUR = 57,6 % > JPY = 13,6 % > GBP = 11,9 % > CAD = 9,1 % > SEK = 4,2 % > CHF = 3,6 % EXPLANATION DXY > RISE One of the currency pairs falls > Pressure on other currency pairs increases = Chain reaction = All currency pairs fall DXY < FALL One of the currency pairs rise > Pressure on other currency pairs decreases = Chain reaction = All currency pairs rise So if you interpret the DXY correctly, you can get confirmation for ideas in other related currency pairs. SECOND PART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS For the analysis of the higher time levels I proceed according to the onion-skin principle. > MONTHLY - Level > WEEKLY - Level > DAILY - Level These are divided into > SUMMARY > CHARTS 1. MONTHLY – TIME FRAME SUMMARY The trend channel shown in the chart formed in May|2011 and has since maintained its position as a legitimate trend channel. Especially its mid-trend line showed many reactions and great interest of the market. > The price has reached this middle line and has already reacted positively. > The trend arc is another bullish signal and could serve as additional resistance in the future. If we look more closely at the "DEMAND" zone, we see that it has already been tested on. > The monthly candle closed above the zone, which is another positive indicator. > If we get another rise in the DXY, the marked "SUPPLY" zone, will serve as a very strong resistance and will be a real challenge. The Fibonacci retracement should serve us as an additional confirmation, and was taken under proof in past movements (last decades). > The 0.328 level, was breached without another reaction at this time level and the monthly candle closed below it. > Still pending is the next 0.50 level, which in combination with several arguments, represents a Medium-Strong resistance. > In the absence of a reaction from this level, we will see another sell-off to the 0.618 level. Past highs usually serve as resistance, of which we have two. > HIGH | 01/17 - Already showed a reaction > HIGH | 03/20 - Reaction still pending Points and levels of interest are available to us, which have a not irrelevant duration. > The most significant resistance is the marked POI ZONE (turquoise), with 50 years of experience. > We can be sure that there is great interest in this one. > This already proved true with a first reaction, but we must continue to wait for the candle close to confirm the argument. > If this is "temporarily" broken by a panic in the market, the POI at 102,000 points, serves as the next point of contact. CHARTS DXY – Overall picture DXY – Trendlines DXY – Supply & Demand ZONES + Market-Structure-Break DXY – Fibonacci + POI ATTENTION In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. 2. WEEKLY – TIMEFRAME SUMMARY Besides the already mentioned trend channel, another one is now visible (violet), which was formed in May|2021. > Regardless of its inconspicuousness, it supports the tenor of the thesis. > It was respected and must prove itself again in the coming days and weeks. The additional "SUPPLY&DEMAND" zones join the two existing ones and remain untouched. As further Fibonacci additions we have: > A 1.618 level which was almost touched but is still pending to be worked off. > A 0.786 level which has been able to defend the last two weekly closes. > A 0.88 level, which in combination with the pending MSB, represents a strong resistance. CHARTS DXY – Overall picture DXY – Overall picture + Monthly DXY – Trendlines DXY – Supply & Demand ZONES + Market-Structure-Break DXY – Fibonacci + POI ATTENTION In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. 2. DAILY – TIMEFRAME SUMMARY In the chart, further trend lines are drawn, which have shown reactions in the last 4 months. > These will represent resistances for a possible upward movement. Because so many elements are drawn in the chart, I would advise you to look again at the chart below, where you see only the S&D zones. > Some close together with the higher time levels, which reinforces their - resistance/support. CAUTION (Paler Zones) > The Supply zone, has been touched before and thus has less resistance. > The Demand zone, has been breached and thus should not trigger a major reaction, however it could still be "recaptured". In order to be able to forecast possible target ranges, we would first have to reach the bottom, which has yet to form. > The plotted levels can still change, but serve as a first reference point. > If the reached level already represents the bottom, one can see that the FIB levels, beautifully go along with the "Supply&Demand" zones. CHARTS DXY – Overall picture DXY – Overall picture + Monthly + Weekly DXY – Trend lines DXY – Supply & Demand ZONES DXY – Fibonacci THIRD PART CONCLUSION "The market makers only make money when everyone else loses. So what is the current mainstream opinion?" Run that question through your head and let me know in the comments what you think is more likely. > Another sell-off or a strong USD for now? In summary, based on technical analysis, there are a few reasons for a "temporarily" strong USD. > If you take a closer look at the area of the - HTF-POI-ZONE - you will see quite quickly that resistances could be enough for a whole arm. > Bringing this wall down will take more than one run-up, in my opinion. For this reason, I am assuming a strong USD and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets. > Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of the idea. Thank you and happy trading!
TVC:DXYLong
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
USDCHF - Dollar Uprising again?This analysis shows the whole downside as a corrective move. And the ongoing ending diagonal confirms a reversal to more upside. The invalidation level remains at the previous low, and above that the upside remains a likely move. The Fed's Interest rate decision could trigger the strong move breaking the structure. Price breaking the previous low (Invalidation level) means the dollar would go to further bearish levels. The analysis is based on the Elliott Wave Theory.
Long
by sKeshav
USDCHF BEARISH IDEAUSDCHF BEARISH TRIANGLE Note: All ideas forecasts are my personal views on the market, I share these ideas for free, and you're free to share my profile link with your friends, please do not use my Idea without credit. I post and share for educational purposes hence no idea we publish should be considered an investment advice. I mostly share ideas with more than normal conviction, meaning I mostly share ideas with High conviction. You can check all my work, you can understand my style of analyzing market, please if you like my work do help me earn reputation and like, comment on my ideas, we can discuss more here.
Short
by CELGIB_TRADING
Correlations between Nifty and DXY studyHello Friends, here we had shared just an observation on correlation between NIFTY and DXY which are clearly showing opposite directional runs from last couple of months, also we are assuming the wave counts on both, which are suggesting same patterns ahead along with good support by this correlation, this increases good chances of winning probabilities of our forecasting and analysis, this whole scenario helps in view building and analyzing charts. I'll mention that this is for educational purpose only, and this is not for trading purpose . Thanks Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Disclaimer. I am not sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by RK_Chaarts
23
USDCAD BEARISH IDEAH&S has been formed already and in our previous analysis we made this clear, again the neckline of the H&S was broken which we previously traded it on retest. After this retest we expect the price it's low now however there were a raising trendline acting as support below after retest, if bears have the energy to push down then we'll reach the target of next support level of 2.30089. The FED's pivot is underway and the interest rate hikes is expected to be halt my the FED, this will cause more weakness to greenback.
Short
by CELGIB_TRADING
EURUSD, 1D BEARISH FORECASTDespite the fact EU trading in correction, I've spotted an area where traders should pay attention to, the price has already tested the major resistance level between Aug-Sep. Consider below reasons for selling market. 1. EURUSD is now trading below 50% and 61.8 fib ret. This is clear indication that EUR could continue trading low against Cable. 2. Another reason is that our harmonic or XABCD pattern have came with a bat pattern, which shows that the CD leg has already been completed, and the Bearish movement has taken place according to the current market price. 3. I've noticed that the price has started with raising trendline or channel from the price level of 0.95455 which matced exactly to the 100% of the 31 may high. And the last highest traded price matched with our last part of our bat pattern leg that's D and that's exactly the resistance of the raising trendline/channel. 4. The European Central Bank (ECB) has came dovish after their interest rate decision, and the Lagarde hints more economical pains till end of the year. With the above reasons I believe EURUSD will reach atleast 0.98088, which is retest level of broken descending trendline respected since 08/Jun/22, it also matches our 78.6 ret level, and the testing area of raising trendline/channel. It means price has to reset raising trendline/channel atleast before going back high to 61.8 ret level. Find confirmation using lower timeframe.
Short
by CELGIB_TRADING