Google: A compelling buy at the current priceHello,
As Warren Buffett famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." This mindset is particularly relevant right now with Alphabet Inc.
Despite being a company whose products we use daily—and will likely rely on even more in the future—Alphabet's stock recently declined following comments from Apple’s Eddie Cue regarding a drop in Safari search traffic. This has sparked concerns about Google's dominance in search and its ad revenue streams. Analysts are also highlighting growing competition from AI-driven platforms such as OpenAI, Grok, and Perplexity, raising questions about the future growth of Google Search.
While the headlines may seem discouraging, we remain confident in Google’s enduring leadership in the search space, underpinned by its unmatched scale, infrastructure, and user base. We also believe the market continues to underestimate how far ahead Google truly is in artificial intelligence.
In our view, this dip represents a strategic buying opportunity for long-term investors. Below is our in-depth analysis of Alphabet and why we believe it remains a strong investment.
Alphabet, Inc is a holding company, which engages in the business of acquisition and operation of different companies. Google Services includes products and services such as ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. Google Services generates revenues primarily from advertising; fees received for consumer subscription-based products such as YouTube TV, YouTube Music and Premium, and NFL Sunday Ticket, as well as Google One; the sale of apps and in-app purchases and devices.
KEY NOTES FROM THE Q1 2025 EARNINGS CALL
Revenue up to $ 90.23 Billion (Q1 2024: $ 80.54 Billion)
Operating income for quarter one 2025 at $ 30.61 Billion (Q1 2024: $ 25.47 Billion)
Net income for quarter one 2025 at $ 34.54 Billion (Q1 2024: $ 23.66 Billion)
Diluted Earnings per share closed at $ 2.81 as at 31st March 2025 (2024: $ 1.89). Alphabet’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 representing a 5% increase from the previous quarterly dividend of $0.20.
Cash and cash equivalents remained flat as of the end of March 31 2025 at $ 23.26 Billion (2024: $ 23.47 Billion)
Google advertising continues to do the heavy lifting for the alphabet business contributing $ 66.89 Billion of the total $90.23 Billion. Google Services includes products and services such as ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. Of this amount, the breakdown is as below
Google search & other: $ 50.70 Billion
Youtube ads: $ 8.93 Billion
Google Network: $ 7.26 Billion
Other services offered by the platforms contributed revenues as below
Google subscriptions, platforms & devices: $ 10.38 Billion
Google cloud: $ 12.26 Billion
Other bets: $ 450 million. Other Bets is a combination of multiple operating segments that are not individually material.
Hedging gains: $ 260 million
The company announced a share buyback program of up to $70 billion of its class A and class C shares. The buy backs will be executed through open market purchases or through privately negotiated transactions.
Business Opportunities/Strengths
Alphabet’s advertising business is firmly embedded in digital advertising budgets, allowing it to capitalize on the ongoing growth in digital ad spending.
The significant cash flows from advertising enable Alphabet to reinvest in growth areas like Google Cloud, AI-enhanced search, and innovative ventures such as Waymo. (Waymo is Alphabet's autonomous driving technology subsidiary, focused on developing self-driving cars and related technologies.)
With a strong foothold in the public cloud market, Alphabet has a substantial opportunity as a major provider for enterprises transitioning to digital platforms.
Risks to consider
Although Alphabet is working to diversify, text-based advertising remains its primary revenue source, presenting a concentration risk.
Ongoing investments in emerging, sometimes unproven technologies through its Other Bets segment continue to strain cash flows.
Increasing regulatory scrutiny of Alphabet's search dominance worldwide could lead to significant market disruptions through structural reforms.
Recommendation
We view Alphabet as a solid business with diverse solutions ranging from advertising, cloud business and driverless cars as well. While we acknowledge that the antitrust cases have continued to make headlines, we encourage investors to remain invested and focused on the business’s strengths. The business has unique products that will have the ability to remain leaders for a very long period of time. Android is the operating system for the majority of the world’s smartphones with more than two-thirds of all smartphones in the world running it. Virtually all smartphones, other than those manufactured by Apple, run on Android. We see this remaining as a google strength for a very long time. The Google Play Store’s unmatched ecosystem creates significant barriers for competing operating systems, limiting their access to critical applications. The recent correction on US technology companies provides us with a solid buying price for some of these great companies. Alphabet alone corrected by about 31% and has since bounced back.
We see the current price as a great entry price for long term investors based on both technical and fundamental analysis with a target price of $ 203.
