NO MATTER WHO WINS. F&O STOCK WILL WIN.General elections in India are going on and they are expected to be the WORLD's COSTLIEST elections. DMK, a closely related political party to NSE:SUNTV is among the top spenders on Google Ads despite being limited to one state. Expecting a huge ad spend by parties on Sun TV channels across South India. Stock is ready for inverted H&S breakout. Results will be posted on 24th May and I think breakout may happen around that time. So this week will be exciting for this.
Elections
USDCAD bulls need validation from 1.2810 on Canada Election DayAlike other major currency pairs, USDCAD respects the broad US dollar strength while rising to the fresh high of the month. Adding to the upside pressure is the Federal Elections in Canada, even if the results are less likely to offer any entertainment. That said, the quote heads towards a two-month-old resistance around 1.2810 with the bullish MACD contrasting with nearly overbought RSI to challenge the bulls afterward. Also acting as an upside hurdle is the late August highs near 1.2830-35, a break of which could direct bulls to the yearly peak surrounding 1.2950.
Meanwhile, pullback moves may aim for 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively near 1.2730 and 1.2600. However, any further downside will be challenged by the 100-day EMA level of 1.2533. While USDCAD buyers are likely to return from 1.2530, any failures to do so won’t hesitate in challenging the monthly low close to 1.2495. Overall, USDCAD remains bullish but a profit-booking move can’t be ruled out.
Watch for breakout from channelNIFTY is attempting to break out of 11110 resistance. Early opinion polls and political situation will determine the movement in next 4-8 weeks. Support at 10970 and then 10500. 10,500 line is holding for over three years now, however, election times are very volatile in India.
Go long in NIFTY for TARGET of 10800, with a STOP LOSS of 9990So do you think I'm giving an aggressive call?
If you observe my stop loss is conservative, so this gives me a mileage to keep a big target. Considering the recent fall in NSE:NIFTY just observe the previous fall dated from 19th September to 27th September, just see you will find a lot of similarities in both the situation. The Earlier one looked like a DOUBLE TOP and from there it jumped to making new highs a rally of tremendous 800 plus points. Look at the RSI levels as well, every time it goes below 30 we see a bounce of minimum 500 points.
There is one more thing I want you all to observe, there are 2 Trend Lines, the Maroon one it has been breached twice now, so it gives you a FALSE ALARM , and if the price closes above it again then the market resumes it's previous bull trend. The Blue Trend Line has fewer touch points but it sure has not been breached till now. So we can also use these 2 pointers to confirm a trend reversal.
So considering all this, I feel it's more safe to buy and going by the sentiments, it's kinda negative. Which gives me further mileage because if I'm right and trading against the overall sentiments. I'll get a swifter rally. Stock specific I'm expecting that it will have tremendous volatility, as you would have observed even today the surge in stock price was more than 2% to 5% in major stocks.
Stop is recent swing long and also below a psychological 10000 level.
Note: Always trade with stop loss (In Trading Discipline is everything)