Ethereum Long-Term ViewEthereum
Overview
Ethereum(ETH) has suffered about 94+% correction(drop) since the all the time high-level point($1425) reached in January’18.
One key point to note that its following similar trend/pattern to Bitcoin of upward and downward movement in the market.
Let's analyze price action for Ethereum (ETH/USD) over the long term and proceed to highlight any potential areas of support and resistance moving forward.
Long-Term Analysis (Monthly Timeframe)
Scenario 1: Bullish (Uptrend)
If the Monthly candle (December) closes above $102 price level with strong buy volume then we might see the price the testing the "Resistance(Sell) Zone 1" ranging from $199-$278 within few weeks/months.
If it manages to close above "Resistance(Sell) Zone 1" then it will retest "Resistance(Sell) Zone 2" ranging from $407-$521 within few months.
Few other factors in confluence with the bullish scenario:
1) Stochastic RSI is in the Oversold Region (its a region where asset price is likely to rebound or bounce).
2) Selling Volume (red bars at the bottom of the chart) is declining i.e. sellers are getting exhausted.
Scenario 2: Bearish (Downtrend)
If the Monthly candle (December) closes below $102 price level with strong sell volume then we might see the price testing the "Support (Buy) Zone 1" ranging from $47-$60 within few weeks/months.
If that support zone(1) doesn't hold up (no buying pressure) then we might see "Support (Buy) Zone 2" ranging from $11-$15 which is not a healthy sign.
Factors in confluence with Bearish Scenario
Support Zone 2 ranging from $11-$15 is the High of the previous resistance zone of September 2016.
Scenario 3: Ranging Scenario
Ethereum did range between price levels $173-$248 for 3 months (September-November'18) before making a major move downtrend to $80's price level.
There are permutations and combinations you can apply between different zones (Resistance and Support) on the chart to form Ranging Zones.
These are areas where major market participants (Institutional Investors) accumulate before a big change in direction of the price.
Note: Monthly time frame charts illustrates the movement of price over a long-term horizon and are most often used by long-term investors.
Short-Term Analysis (Daily and Weekly)
Scenario 1: Bullish (Uptrend)
If Ethereum closes above $115 in weekly time frame then we might restest "Resistance Zone 1" ranging from $156-$184.This zone will be difficult to break or surpass since it could have acted strong support but couldn't. Hence, it will require greater buying pressure(interest) to go through this zone.
If it manages to break with large buy volume then chances of next bull cycle happening is likely.
We get the confirmation of next bull cycle happening only when it breaks the "Resistance Zone 2" ranging from $360-$400.
Scenario 2: Bearish (Downtrend)
If Ethereum weekly candle closes below $83 price level then there are two Bounce(rebound) zones namely Support Buy Zone 1 ranging from $40-56 and Support Buy Zone 2 ranging from $11-15 in coming weeks and months for potential Bullish reversal.
News and event analysis:
There are few development news(catalyst) coming in the month of January,19 like Constantinople mainnet hard fork is scheduled for block #7080000, estimated around the 16th of January, 2019. Constantinople features changes designed to increase the platform’s efficiency, alter its economic policy and delay the so-called “difficulty bomb,” a piece of code meant to encourage the network to alter its core consensus algorithm(Proof of work) to Proof of Stake algorithm.
Secondly, There is an Ethereum Nowa(ETN) fork.
What is ETN? ETN is the abbreviation of Ethereum Nowa, and also the blockchain assets and currency code of Ethereum.
What is the fork time? January 12, 2019
Each ETH holder receives ETN in the ratio of 1:1 for free.
Conclusion:
Ethereum remains in 3rd position, in terms of overall market cap rankings along with Bitcoin and Ripple.
The 40-month-old coin is now experiencing its first bear market and has already corrected enough(94% down) to commence its new bull cycle in coming weeks/months.
Overall cryptocurrencies are seeing a lot more green(price surge) over the past couple of days and there are speculations that the crypto winter might be over as buyers are returning.
Utility(real use cases) of any crypto asset will eventually become a key point for the growth in the cryptocurrency industry.
